Hey guys good morning, what is up - happy New Year, I was supposed to produce an analysis yesterday but I had other business to attend to as I have other things I do to make money (let's be honest - it doesn't matter how good of a trader you are, it isn't safe to put all your eggs into THIS basket lol)
That being said however I wish you nothing but success for 2024 and beyond.
Let us begin the analysis on gold thus far
Thus far on the m15 timeframe it seems that gold hasn't had much going on since my last trade mid December
I will however say that gold in my opinion is still very much a bullish market - with this in mind however gold ISN'T buying - WHY?
Let me explain..
So we know we cannot use the current monthly candle as there are literally 28 days left before that candle closes, anything can happen between now and the YEAR of January lol (for those of you who spent all their profits of last year over Christmas lol)
The previous monthly candle however makes sense that it is consolidating because typically after a big push you will get the market go into a state of consolidation to begin the new cycle and by extension new trap
Keep in mind however hold is still trading AT and I'd argue above the previous high that would have been broken (see image below)
On the weekly timeframe we can see again we cannot yet trust the current weekly candle as it has a little while again before it closes - it does however suggest a bear move - I'd explain why I think this is possible shortly
The previous weekly candle also speaks to a possible bear move - the fact that there is a heavy rejection on the previous weekly candle in a bull market doesn't make a lot of sense UNLESS the market CANNOT go up further without come back down for something first - maybe? right?
Looking at the daily timeframe we can see that the last day for 2023 closed as a bearish day - why? maybe this is to induce sellers so that sellers can come in and push price lower
But why? Why would the dealer want to have sellers become interested? Why would he want the seller to try to push price down? Because I believe there is something down below somewhere and the sell is to get price to achieve that level - that is the ONLY thing that makes sense to me
The 4 hour is very interesting because looking at this green zone we can see over to the left there were a lot of sellers interested at that "resistance". They sold and sold until they were eventually stopped out - the buyers then quickly became interested. This makes sense as gold is a bullish market for sure.
But then (presently) the buyers that recently became interested were stopped out by this bear push - I think however that gold isn't ready to resume buys yet because it is staying at this lower area a bit to long for my liking. Actually As I am typing this price is consistently pushing lower. The only thing would give me confidence that gold is ready to resume buys is if it heavily rejects the downside and in my opinion it hasn't arrived where the big chunk of liquidity is just yet (see next image)
When you observe the 1 hour time frame we can see that there was a bull trend that formed over a few days - this would have surely induced buyers - in a bull market the market wants to buy (duhhh, obviously) but the question you have to ask is - "does the dealer want the buyer to win alongside him?" 11\10 times the answer to that question is a big FAT NO!
So it makes sense to induce the buyer to buy then to stop them out by driving price lower back to hit their stop losses. The areas highlighted are where I think the next chunks of liquidity are trapped. We can possibly see price hit one of these areas before resuming the buy.
The real question is - "do I think it is worth it to try to sell gold in hopes that it gets to one of these levels?" No, I don't think it is worth it. But not because of the market structure I have outlined here. More so due to the time of the year. I think the market is still pretty volatile from the holidays.
I think waiting a few days to see what happens - at least if more momentum comes in first is the better play here. This shows not just I know what I want to see but it shows discipline as well. I am not to eager to find a trade. I prefer the trade to come to me
Downvote\don't boost if you didn't take the time to read this entire post and you didn't try to understand
OR
Upvote\boost if you did take the time to read this entire post and you did try to understand
Leave a comment telling me how you feel about the new year so far to let me know that you've read this entire post
That being said however I wish you nothing but success for 2024 and beyond.
Let us begin the analysis on gold thus far
Thus far on the m15 timeframe it seems that gold hasn't had much going on since my last trade mid December
I will however say that gold in my opinion is still very much a bullish market - with this in mind however gold ISN'T buying - WHY?
Let me explain..
So we know we cannot use the current monthly candle as there are literally 28 days left before that candle closes, anything can happen between now and the YEAR of January lol (for those of you who spent all their profits of last year over Christmas lol)
The previous monthly candle however makes sense that it is consolidating because typically after a big push you will get the market go into a state of consolidation to begin the new cycle and by extension new trap
Keep in mind however hold is still trading AT and I'd argue above the previous high that would have been broken (see image below)
On the weekly timeframe we can see again we cannot yet trust the current weekly candle as it has a little while again before it closes - it does however suggest a bear move - I'd explain why I think this is possible shortly
The previous weekly candle also speaks to a possible bear move - the fact that there is a heavy rejection on the previous weekly candle in a bull market doesn't make a lot of sense UNLESS the market CANNOT go up further without come back down for something first - maybe? right?
Looking at the daily timeframe we can see that the last day for 2023 closed as a bearish day - why? maybe this is to induce sellers so that sellers can come in and push price lower
But why? Why would the dealer want to have sellers become interested? Why would he want the seller to try to push price down? Because I believe there is something down below somewhere and the sell is to get price to achieve that level - that is the ONLY thing that makes sense to me
The 4 hour is very interesting because looking at this green zone we can see over to the left there were a lot of sellers interested at that "resistance". They sold and sold until they were eventually stopped out - the buyers then quickly became interested. This makes sense as gold is a bullish market for sure.
But then (presently) the buyers that recently became interested were stopped out by this bear push - I think however that gold isn't ready to resume buys yet because it is staying at this lower area a bit to long for my liking. Actually As I am typing this price is consistently pushing lower. The only thing would give me confidence that gold is ready to resume buys is if it heavily rejects the downside and in my opinion it hasn't arrived where the big chunk of liquidity is just yet (see next image)
When you observe the 1 hour time frame we can see that there was a bull trend that formed over a few days - this would have surely induced buyers - in a bull market the market wants to buy (duhhh, obviously) but the question you have to ask is - "does the dealer want the buyer to win alongside him?" 11\10 times the answer to that question is a big FAT NO!
So it makes sense to induce the buyer to buy then to stop them out by driving price lower back to hit their stop losses. The areas highlighted are where I think the next chunks of liquidity are trapped. We can possibly see price hit one of these areas before resuming the buy.
The real question is - "do I think it is worth it to try to sell gold in hopes that it gets to one of these levels?" No, I don't think it is worth it. But not because of the market structure I have outlined here. More so due to the time of the year. I think the market is still pretty volatile from the holidays.
I think waiting a few days to see what happens - at least if more momentum comes in first is the better play here. This shows not just I know what I want to see but it shows discipline as well. I am not to eager to find a trade. I prefer the trade to come to me
Downvote\don't boost if you didn't take the time to read this entire post and you didn't try to understand
OR
Upvote\boost if you did take the time to read this entire post and you did try to understand
Leave a comment telling me how you feel about the new year so far to let me know that you've read this entire post
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.