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📅 Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Outlook – May 18–24, 2025
Current Price: $3,203.47
RSI (1D): 53.54 → Neutral
✅ Base Case: Mild Bullish / Range-Bound
📈 Bias: Neutral to Bullish
🎯 Target Range: $3,230 – $3,280
📊 Probability: ~65%
Gold is consolidating above prior breakout levels with neutral momentum (not overbought). This suggests more upside is possible unless bearish catalysts emerge.
🔍 Key Support & Resistance Levels
Support 1: $3,170 – $3,160 (prior breakout zone, likely defended)
Support 2: $3,120 – $3,100 (deeper dip buy zone)
Resistance 1: $3,230 – $3,250 (minor ceiling — likely tested soon)
Resistance 2: $3,280 – $3,300 (bullish extension target)
📊 Weekly Scenarios
1. Mild Bullish / Sideways (Base Case)
🟢 Probability: 65%
🔁 Price holds above $3,160
🎯 Target: $3,230 – $3,280
2. Bullish Breakout
🟡 Probability: 20%
🚀 Trigger: Geopolitical risk or Fed dovish shift
🎯 Target: $3,300+
3. Bearish Pullback
🔴 Probability: 15%
❌ Trigger: Strong USD, hot data, or yield spike
🎯 Target: $3,160 → $3,100
🧭 Trade Idea (Example Strategy)
Long Entry: Around $3,170
Stop Loss: Below $3,145
Take Profit: $3,230 / $3,280
Risk/Reward: Favorable if price holds support
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
📅 Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Outlook – May 18–24, 2025
Current Price: $3,203.47
RSI (1D): 53.54 → Neutral
✅ Base Case: Mild Bullish / Range-Bound
📈 Bias: Neutral to Bullish
🎯 Target Range: $3,230 – $3,280
📊 Probability: ~65%
Gold is consolidating above prior breakout levels with neutral momentum (not overbought). This suggests more upside is possible unless bearish catalysts emerge.
🔍 Key Support & Resistance Levels
Support 1: $3,170 – $3,160 (prior breakout zone, likely defended)
Support 2: $3,120 – $3,100 (deeper dip buy zone)
Resistance 1: $3,230 – $3,250 (minor ceiling — likely tested soon)
Resistance 2: $3,280 – $3,300 (bullish extension target)
📊 Weekly Scenarios
1. Mild Bullish / Sideways (Base Case)
🟢 Probability: 65%
🔁 Price holds above $3,160
🎯 Target: $3,230 – $3,280
2. Bullish Breakout
🟡 Probability: 20%
🚀 Trigger: Geopolitical risk or Fed dovish shift
🎯 Target: $3,300+
3. Bearish Pullback
🔴 Probability: 15%
❌ Trigger: Strong USD, hot data, or yield spike
🎯 Target: $3,160 → $3,100
🧭 Trade Idea (Example Strategy)
Long Entry: Around $3,170
Stop Loss: Below $3,145
Take Profit: $3,230 / $3,280
Risk/Reward: Favorable if price holds support
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Note
FX Weekly Recap (May 12–16, 2025)Gold regains footing as inflation expectations surge, Fed hesitates
Weekly Market Narrative – Gold Bullish Lens
Gold weathered a volatile week that began with a brief risk-on rally driven by US-China tariff rollback hopes, but the optimism faded fast. As the week progressed, the market’s attention shifted decisively toward resurgent inflation concerns and uncertain Fed policy, fueling renewed demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Despite a late-week USD rebound, the setup for gold remains constructive, with real yields under pressure and market doubts about monetary policy effectiveness mounting.
XAU/USD Tailwinds This Week
US Inflation Data Mixed, but Long-Term Risks Mounting
CPI and PPI came in softer, briefly pulling yields lower and supporting gold upside.
However, UMich 5–10Y inflation expectations jumped to 7.3%, shocking markets and reviving gold’s safe-haven and inflation-hedge appeal.
Fed Communication – Cautious, Not Dovish
Officials pushed back on imminent cuts, keeping short-term rates elevated.
But persistent inflation and flat growth expectations mean real yields may soften, creating a bullish environment for gold.
Risk Assets Wobble Late in Week
Equities lost steam after the initial rally, reinforcing gold’s position as a defensive hedge.
Currency Rundown – XAU/USD Focused
🇺🇸 USD – Strong Finish, But Cracks Show
DXY firmed late week, but gains were largely driven by shallow haven flows, not real yield strength.
Surging long-term inflation expectations highlight a brewing macro divergence that could weaken USD’s appeal vs. gold over time.
🇪🇺 EUR – No Fight Left
Weak Eurozone data and dovish ECB expectations provided little resistance to USD, but also failed to dent gold’s appeal.
With EUR unable to rally on better global tone, XAU/USD remained an attractive alternative.
🇬🇧 GBP – Gave Up Gains
Strong wage data and hawkish BoE tones lifted GBP midweek.
But soft retail sales and global risk-off reversed gains—gold resumed its climb as sterling faltered.
🇨🇭 CHF – Losing Its Shine
CHF underperformed despite risk-off conditions, underscoring gold’s superior safe-haven status.
SNB’s dovish lean and low inflation leave the franc vulnerable—beneficial for XAU/CHF positioning.
🇨🇦 CAD – Oil-Led Support Fades
Initial strength from higher oil prices gave way to broader USD resilience.
As oil slipped and BoC maintained caution, CAD lost ground while gold reasserted itself.
🇦🇺 / 🇳🇿 AUD & NZD – Soft Commodities, Softer Outlooks
Early-week commodity optimism faded with poor Chinese industrial output and softer risk sentiment.
With limited room for further tightening, AUD and NZD lacked the inflation-hedge strength gold offers.
Gold Market Outlook – Bullish Tilt
XAU/USD may have started the week on the back foot, but the rebound was telling. Sticky inflation, Fed caution, and growing doubts about monetary policy efficacy are firming up gold’s medium-term outlook. Technically, gold remains in consolidation, but fundamentals are shifting in the bulls’ favor.
Bottom line: As the narrative moves from disinflation to stagflation concerns, XAU/USD is regaining traction as the asset of choice for macro resilience.
Note
FX Cheat Sheet – Week of May 18–23, 2025Big Picture:
Markets are at a pivotal point with flash PMIs, the RBA rate decision, and UK/Canada inflation data all hitting this week. Last week’s optimism from the US-China tariff pause faded quickly as mixed data, oil volatility, and Middle East risks returned. We're maintaining a pro-XAU/USD stance as macro risks continue to simmer.
Global Macro Highlights:
US-China Truce: 90-day tariff pause (US from 145% to 30%, China from 125% to 10%) lifted risk assets briefly.
Oil Volatility: Iran sanctions spike prices, then nuclear deal rumors pull them back. CAD and oil-sensitive plays swinging hard.
US Data Mixed: CPI 2.3%, soft PPI, flat retail, plunging sentiment. Confused Fed outlook = confused markets.
New Trade Deals: US signs $600B deal with Saudi Arabia, $243.5B with Qatar. Good for global risk tone—short term.
Gold Outlook: Elevated deficits, geopolitical tensions, and uncertain inflation path support gold. We stay bullish on XAU/USD.
Central Bank Overview:
Fed: Less dovish, Bostic sees only 1 cut this year. USD supported.
BOJ: Gradually hawkish despite weak GDP. JPY resilient.
BOE: Dovish cut done, but 7-2 vote shows hawks still strong. GBP steady.
ECB: Cautious with cuts; ECB minutes on Thursday may clarify path.
SNB: Talk of returning to negative rates creates CHF uncertainty.
RBA: Decision on May 20. Strong jobs data complicates cut expectations.
BOC: CPI and Retail Sales will drive CAD.
Currency Scoreboard (Fundamental Bias Only):
USD – 8.1 – Fed still hawkish, data resilient.
JPY – 7.9 – Safe-haven strength and BOJ normalization.
GBP – 7.4 – BOE hawks remain, inflation still a factor.
EUR – 7.2 – Solid German data but still lagging overall.
CHF – 6.8 – Policy uncertainty tempers haven appeal.
CAD – 6.5 – Oil swings + soft CPI = caution.
AUD – 6.3 – RBA risk, China exposure weigh.
NZD – 6.1 – Weak fundamentals, China dependency.
Pro-XAU/USD Factors:
Geopolitical risks: Iran & Middle East tensions fuel gold demand.
Deficits: US fiscal imbalance makes gold attractive as a hedge.
Fed pricing: Market doubts deep cuts; gold holds firm.
Inflation confusion: Mixed CPI/PPI = gold as insurance.
CB divergence: Non-USD currencies not keeping up, gold looks better.
Key Macro Themes This Week:
US PMIs & Housing: Weakness = risk-off → gold support
US-China Truce: Market skeptical, breakdown = gold higher
RBA Decision (May 20): Cut = gold & JPY benefit; no cut = AUD bounce
Fed Speakers: Hawkish = USD steady; dovish = XAU/USD climbs
Iran & Oil Risk: Escalation = oil + gold rally
UK CPI: Hot print = GBP spike; potential gold-neutral to positive
Market Scenarios:
Base Case (60%) – Global PMIs soft, UK CPI in range, RBA on hold. USD firm, gold supported by deficits/geopolitics.
Risk-Off (30%) – PMIs collapse, Iran tensions flare, CPI surprises = gold, JPY, CHF soar.
Risk-On (10%) – PMIs strong, US-China extend truce, Iran deal inked = AUD/CAD rebound, gold holds due to deficit fears.
Key Events This Week:
May 19 – EU Economic Forecasts, China Loan Prime Rate
May 20 – RBA Rate Decision, Canada CPI
May 21 – UK CPI
May 22 – Flash PMIs (US/UK/EU), ECB Minutes, BoJ Speech
May 23 – UK Retail Sales, US New Home Sales, Australia PMIs
May 24 – Canada Retail Sales
Summary View:
We're leaning pro-XAU/USD amid rising fiscal concerns, geopolitical risks, and Fed ambiguity. Be ready for volatility, especially around data drops. Gold remains a strong hedge while major currencies wrestle with diverging policy paths.
Trade closed: target reached
We hit our weekly target! Note
Bullish extension target reached as well!Note
If the 1M pivot point at 3248 breaks, we could see a retest of the trendline. Should the trendline also give way, a move down to retest the 1M support structure becomes likely—especially if USD strength persists and the Fed maintains its hawkish stance.Note
Weekly FX & Global Macro RecapMay 18 – 23, 2025
Global Macro Themes & Market Drivers
Risk-On Factors
Central Bank Easing Bias:
PBOC cut benchmark lending rates first time in 7 months.
ECB’s Wunsch, BOE’s Dhingra, BOC’s Macklem signal dovish leanings.
RBA cut 25 bps; AUD initially fell, then partially recovered.
Resilient PMI Data:
US Flash PMIs (Manufacturing & Services) beat expectations.
UK and Eurozone PMIs show early signs of stabilization.
Gold & Crypto Surge:
Gold up 3%+ to $3,340/oz, fueled by fiscal concerns and safe-haven demand.
Bitcoin hit all-time highs near $100,000 after stablecoin legislation.
Risk-Off Factors
US Fiscal Turmoil:
Moody’s downgraded top US banks.
Trump’s massive tax-spending bill passed the House, raising deficit fears.
30-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5%.
Trade & Geopolitical Shocks:
Trump proposed 50% tariffs on EU goods, 25% on iPhones.
Heightened tensions with China, Russia, Iran; Israel-Iran conflict escalations.
Mixed Global Data:
Weak services PMIs in Germany, New Zealand, and France.
China retail sales & fixed asset investment below forecasts.
Weekly Asset Class Performance
Asset Move Key Drivers
USD (DXY) -1.6% Fiscal worries, tariff fears, weak auctions
Gold (XAU) +3%+ Dollar weakness, deficit hedging, geopolitics
S&P 500 -3%+ Fiscal instability, tariffs, tech selloff
Oil (WTI) Volatile Supply uncertainty, OPEC+ rumors, geopolitics
10Y Yield +5% intraday Debt supply glut, inflation, rating downgrade
BTC/USD ATH ~100K Stablecoin legislation, institutional momentum
FX & Economic Highlights
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Strongest currency amid US turmoil and domestic strength.
Moody’s US credit downgrade & Trump tariff fears → safe-haven demand.
Core CPI +3.5% YoY, machinery orders +13% MoM.
BOJ hawkish pivot → gradual rate hike expectations.
US Dollar (USD)
Lost 1.4%-2.3% vs majors; biggest vs JPY (-2.3%) and CHF (-2.1%).
Pressured by Moody’s downgrade, Treasury auction worries, fiscal uncertainty.
Fed neutral-hawkish but cautious.
PMI Manufacturing & Services at 52.3 (beat forecast).
Mortgage rates rose to 6.92%, applications down 5.1%.
Possible rate cuts if tariffs ease by July (Fed’s Waller).
Euro (EUR)
Net winner vs majors except JPY and CHF.
ECB neutral-hawkish; inflation on target (Core CPI 2.7%).
Brexit reset talks ongoing.
Mixed PMIs and growth concerns.
British Pound (GBP)
Mixed, slightly risk-on.
Gains vs USD & AUD; losses vs CHF & JPY.
Sticky inflation: CPI 3.5%, RPI 4.5%.
Brexit optimism tempered; BOE cautious on rate cuts.
Mixed PMIs.
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Gained ~2% vs USD; strong safe-haven flows.
SNB warns of upcoming negative inflation.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Early weakness then stabilized.
CPI cooling at 1.7% YoY; Core CPI steady at 2.5%.
Retail sales strong at +5.6% YoY.
Australian Dollar (AUD)
Choppy week; weaker vs majors except USD.
RBA cut 25 bps; 50 bps cut possible.
Mixed PMI data.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Surged 1.86% vs USD, driven mainly by USD weakness.
Mixed data: strong PPI, wider trade surplus, weaker services PMI.
Vulnerable to global uncertainty and tariffs.
Sentiment & Outlook
USD bearish on credit downgrade and fiscal uncertainty.
JPY & CHF favored as safe havens amid risk aversion.
EUR & GBP cautiously optimistic amid Brexit and central bank moves.
AUD & NZD mixed; sensitive to commodities and trade tensions.
Trade and fiscal risks remain dominant market themes.
Gold & Bitcoin expected to benefit further amid dollar weakness and safe-haven demand.
Treasury yields and oil prices face volatility from debt supply, geopolitics, and trade risks.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.