Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1‑hour timeframe
Chart Structure & Bias
* Price remains trapped in a **rising channel** (\~\$3,328–3,333), pressing against resistance near **\$3,340–3,345**.
* Short-term momentum is bearish: both EMA 7 and EMA 21 sit above current price, with declining volume signaling weakening buyer strength.
* Overall trend leans neutral‑to‑bearish until market clears key zones decisively.
Trade Scenarios
**Bearish Breakdown (Preferred)**
* **Trigger:** Break and close below channel support (\~\$3,326).
* **Targets:** Initial drop toward **\$3,320**, then **\$3,300**, and possibly lower if momentum intensifies.
* **Invalidation:** Price pushes back above **\$3,333–3,335**, negating bearish structure.
**Bullish Breakout (Conditional)**
* **Trigger:** Clean breakout and sustained close above **\$3,342–3,345**.
* **Targets:** Upward stretch toward **\$3,355–3,360**, and if strong, **\$3,367–3,375+**.
* **Invalidation:** Fails to hold structure—retesting from above back beneath **\~\$3,338**.
Macro Drivers & Market Conditions
* Caution prevails pre‑Fed decision and ADP / GDP releases—market awaits cues on interest rate direction.
* Safe‑haven demand has softened as global trade sentiment improves, while U.S. dollar strength continues to cap upside in gold.
* Analysts favor **sell‑on‑rise positioning**, bumping up potential for controlled pullbacks.
Verdict
Gold is consolidating in a tight upward channel, showing short-term bearish pressure. The **bearish breakdown scenario holds the edge** unless price convincingly clears above **\$3,345** on strong volume, which could flip bias. A confirmed break below **\$3,326** sets the stage for downward moves toward **\$3,300** or lower.
Chart Structure & Bias
* Price remains trapped in a **rising channel** (\~\$3,328–3,333), pressing against resistance near **\$3,340–3,345**.
* Short-term momentum is bearish: both EMA 7 and EMA 21 sit above current price, with declining volume signaling weakening buyer strength.
* Overall trend leans neutral‑to‑bearish until market clears key zones decisively.
Trade Scenarios
**Bearish Breakdown (Preferred)**
* **Trigger:** Break and close below channel support (\~\$3,326).
* **Targets:** Initial drop toward **\$3,320**, then **\$3,300**, and possibly lower if momentum intensifies.
* **Invalidation:** Price pushes back above **\$3,333–3,335**, negating bearish structure.
**Bullish Breakout (Conditional)**
* **Trigger:** Clean breakout and sustained close above **\$3,342–3,345**.
* **Targets:** Upward stretch toward **\$3,355–3,360**, and if strong, **\$3,367–3,375+**.
* **Invalidation:** Fails to hold structure—retesting from above back beneath **\~\$3,338**.
Macro Drivers & Market Conditions
* Caution prevails pre‑Fed decision and ADP / GDP releases—market awaits cues on interest rate direction.
* Safe‑haven demand has softened as global trade sentiment improves, while U.S. dollar strength continues to cap upside in gold.
* Analysts favor **sell‑on‑rise positioning**, bumping up potential for controlled pullbacks.
Verdict
Gold is consolidating in a tight upward channel, showing short-term bearish pressure. The **bearish breakdown scenario holds the edge** unless price convincingly clears above **\$3,345** on strong volume, which could flip bias. A confirmed break below **\$3,326** sets the stage for downward moves toward **\$3,300** or lower.
Trade active
update XAU/USD setup:**Update on Gold (XAU/USD) 1H Chart**
**Previous Bearish Setup Recap:**
* Bearish confirmation was a **break below \$3,324**
* Target 1: **\$3,312** ✅
* Target 2: **\$3,296** (not yet reached)
**Current Status**
* Price has reached **\$3,309**, continuing within the bearish zone.
* **Momentum remains weak**, with price still under both **EMA 7** and **EMA 21**
* No bullish reversal signal yet
**Next Bearish Target**
* If **\$3,306** breaks down cleanly:
* **Watch \$3,296** as next target
* Further downside may extend to **\$3,285** if selling accelerates
**Reversal Watch**
* Any reclaim above **\$3,324–\$3,328** could suggest the bearish move is weakening
* Bullish reversal only valid above **\$3,336–\$3,340** with strong volume
Trade closed: target reached
updateBearish setup completed successfully — price hit $3,270, closing the move.
Previous targets $3,312 and $3,296 reached, with extended drop exceeding expectations.
Momentum remains weak; watch for potential support or next breakdown below $3,265.
Trade closed.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.