Hello everyone, looking at the 12H XAU/USD chart, I see gold is consolidating right at the upper edge of the sideways range. Price has held firmly above the Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) and left behind two clear demand FVG zones: 3,345–3,355 and deeper at 3,330–3,345. These often act as a “cushion” for price to rebalance before continuing higher. On the upside, a supply FVG is still hanging around 3.38x and further at 3.40x — making 3,380 the key “wall” that gold needs to break.
The fundamental backdrop looks quite supportive:
As long as price stays above the Kumo and with the demand FVG 3,345–3,355 right below, I favour the upside scenario. If 3,350 holds, my near-term target is 3,390, with extension to 3,405 (overlapping with the higher supply FVG). This view only weakens if a 12H candle closes below 3,335 — in which case the risk of a deeper pullback to retest the lower FVG increases.
What do you think about the scenario of gold being “backed by the Ichimoku cloud” and heading towards the 3,390–3,405 zone?
The fundamental backdrop looks quite supportive:
- After Jackson Hole, Mr. Powell signalled that the Fed could cut rates in September. The probability of a cut via FedWatch has risen sharply, dragging yields lower and cooling the USD.
- At the start of the week, the USD staged a technical rebound as the market “reset” risk ahead of a heavy data calendar, causing choppy intraday swings in gold but without breaking the structure above the cloud.
- This week’s US calendar is packed: Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, preliminary GDP, Jobless Claims, and especially core PCE at the end of the week. If data comes in weak, rate cut expectations will be further reinforced.
- The PBOC continues to inject large liquidity to support the CNY, easing global cash stress and creating a more favourable environment for gold.
- Gold ETF (GLD) holdings remain elevated, showing that investor positions have not weakened significantly. At the same time, US consumer confidence is softening, adding another reason for the Fed to “soften its tone.”
As long as price stays above the Kumo and with the demand FVG 3,345–3,355 right below, I favour the upside scenario. If 3,350 holds, my near-term target is 3,390, with extension to 3,405 (overlapping with the higher supply FVG). This view only weakens if a 12H candle closes below 3,335 — in which case the risk of a deeper pullback to retest the lower FVG increases.
What do you think about the scenario of gold being “backed by the Ichimoku cloud” and heading towards the 3,390–3,405 zone?
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