Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Updated

XAUUSD Technical Outlook – Rebound or Trap?

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1. Market Overview
After a sharp rejection near the 0.618 Fibonacci level, XAUUSD has pulled back and is now trading around 3,323 USD. Although price has stabilized somewhat, technical indicators suggest this is likely a corrective move within a prevailing downtrend.
snapshot

2. Technical Analysis
Price Action
XAUUSD is currently hovering near 3,323 USD after a failed attempt to break above the resistance zone at 3,373–3,392 USD — an area marked by:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent downtrend
Repeated historical rejections.
The upper boundary of a sideways consolidation range from early June.
Recent candlesticks show indecision and rejection from higher levels, suggesting sellers are still in control.
Support Zone Behavior
The price recently bounced from the 3,294–3,317 USD range, where strong historical support and the 0.382 Fibonacci level align.
This zone continues to hold, but if broken, could open the door to deeper declines toward the 3,250 or even 3,224 USD levels.
RSI Indicator
RSI remains flat around the neutral zone, indicating a lack of bullish momentum.
No significant divergence or breakout signals are currently visible on the daily RSI chart.

3. Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
3,373 – 3,392 USD: Confluence resistance zone (0.618 Fib + historical supply).
3,435 – 3,453 USD: Previous swing high – key medium-term benchmark
Support:
3,294 – 3,317 USD: Immediate support, holding for now.
3,250 – 3,224 USD: Potential next target zone if bearish pressure resumes.

4. Trade Setup Scenarios.
Scenario 1 – Buy if support holds and bullish confirmation appears
Entry: 3,295 – 3,305 USD.
Stop-loss: Below 3,289 USD.
Take-profit: 3,340 – 3,355 – 3,370 USD.
Condition: Look for bullish reversal patterns (e.g., Bullish Engulfing, Pin Bar) on H1–H4.
Scenario 2 – Sell on rejection from resistance zone
Entry: 3,370 – 3,375 USD.
Stop-loss: Above 3,392 USD.
Take-profit: 3,330 – 3,310 – 3,290 USD.

Condition: Clear bearish rejection candlestick with diminishing volume
Note:
XAUUSD remains in a vulnerable state. The current move may be a technical rebound rather than a true reversal. Traders should watch closely how price behaves around the 3,373–3,392 USD zone in the coming sessions. A breakout could signal a new bullish leg, while another rejection would likely confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
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Everyone has their own strategy – are you watching for a buy or a sell at this price zone?

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