📊 Technical Analysis – XAUUSD (July 28, 2025)
Elliott Wave Structure – Triangle (ABCDE):
The chart clearly shows a contracting triangle pattern (ABCDE), which commonly appears during corrective waves (usually Wave 4 or Wave B in a larger degree).
Currently, price seems to have just completed Wave E, and it's showing early signs of a bounce from the triangle's lower support.
If this wave count is valid, we could expect a bullish breakout soon, continuing the previous trend (most likely upward if this is part of Wave (5)).
🧭 Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Triangle Support (Wave E area):
Around $3,325 – $3,336 (price is currently testing this zone)
Potential Bullish Targets (if breakout occurs):
🎯 $3,374
🎯 $3,414
🎯 $3,498 – $3,500 (major resistance zone / Wave 5 target)
🧠 Fundamental Outlook Supporting Gold (Forward-Looking)
✅ Bullish Drivers:
Fed Rate Cut Expectations (Late 2025):
Slowing inflation → Rate cuts expected → Positive for gold.
Weaker US Dollar:
A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers → Bullish.
Global Geopolitical Tensions:
Rising uncertainty supports gold as a safe haven asset.
⚠️ Bearish Risks:
Strong US economic data (e.g., NFP beats or rising inflation) could lead to the Fed staying hawkish → Negative for gold.
If price breaks below triangle support ($3,325), the triangle structure would be invalidated and a larger correction could unfold.
📝 Summary & Trading Strategy:
Direction Entry Area Stop Loss TP 1 TP 2 TP 3
✅ Buy (preferred) $3,330 – $3,336 Below $3,310 $3,374 $3,414 $3,498–$3,500
❌ Sell (if breakdown) Below $3,320 Above $3,340 $3,265 $3,245 $3,118
Elliott Wave Structure – Triangle (ABCDE):
The chart clearly shows a contracting triangle pattern (ABCDE), which commonly appears during corrective waves (usually Wave 4 or Wave B in a larger degree).
Currently, price seems to have just completed Wave E, and it's showing early signs of a bounce from the triangle's lower support.
If this wave count is valid, we could expect a bullish breakout soon, continuing the previous trend (most likely upward if this is part of Wave (5)).
🧭 Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Triangle Support (Wave E area):
Around $3,325 – $3,336 (price is currently testing this zone)
Potential Bullish Targets (if breakout occurs):
🎯 $3,374
🎯 $3,414
🎯 $3,498 – $3,500 (major resistance zone / Wave 5 target)
🧠 Fundamental Outlook Supporting Gold (Forward-Looking)
✅ Bullish Drivers:
Fed Rate Cut Expectations (Late 2025):
Slowing inflation → Rate cuts expected → Positive for gold.
Weaker US Dollar:
A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers → Bullish.
Global Geopolitical Tensions:
Rising uncertainty supports gold as a safe haven asset.
⚠️ Bearish Risks:
Strong US economic data (e.g., NFP beats or rising inflation) could lead to the Fed staying hawkish → Negative for gold.
If price breaks below triangle support ($3,325), the triangle structure would be invalidated and a larger correction could unfold.
📝 Summary & Trading Strategy:
Direction Entry Area Stop Loss TP 1 TP 2 TP 3
✅ Buy (preferred) $3,330 – $3,336 Below $3,310 $3,374 $3,414 $3,498–$3,500
❌ Sell (if breakdown) Below $3,320 Above $3,340 $3,265 $3,245 $3,118
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.