Core Logic Analysis
Negative factors dominate
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance: keeping interest rates unchanged and Powell suppressing expectations of a rate cut have weakened gold's safe-haven appeal.
Strong economic data: ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and coupled with the upcoming PCE and non-farm payroll data, market expectations of an early Fed rate cut have cooled.
Technical Breakdown: Gold prices fell below the key support level of $3,300, hitting a new monthly low. A large weekly bearish candlestick chart indicates bearish dominance.
Key Support and Resistance
Resistance: 3315 (hourly rebound resistance), 3333 (previous high and daily resistance).
Support: 3280-3290 (short-term), 3250-3245 (strong monthly support).
Potential Risks
Unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll data or escalating geopolitical tensions could trigger a short-term rebound, but a break above 3330 is required to reverse the downward trend.
Today's Trading Strategy
Short-Term Trading
Primarily short at highs: Short lightly on a rebound to 3310-3315, stop loss at 3325, target 3290-3280.
Aggressive Short: Add to short positions if the price reaches 3330-3333, stop loss at 3340, target 3280.
Cautious Long: Try a long position on the first touch of 3250-3245, stop loss at 3235, target 3270-3280 (quick in and out).
Mid-term Strategy
If the monthly line closes below 3250, shorting at high levels can be continued in August, targeting the 3150-3100 range.
If the gold price rebounds above 3350 after the non-farm payrolls, the trend needs to be reassessed.
Events to Watch
Data:
Non-farm payroll report on Friday (if the data exceeds expectations, gold prices may fall further).
US June PCE Price Index (Federal Reserve inflation indicator).
Technical Signal:
A daily close below 3250 would confirm a medium-term downtrend.
Observe the recapture of the 3300 level, which serves as a dividing line between bulls and bears.
Summary
Gold is currently in a bearish phase. Prioritize shorting on rallies, but be wary of unexpected data fluctuations. If the mid-line breaks below 3250, the market could target the 3000-3100 range. Conversely, if it holds above 3330, strategy adjustments will be necessary. Strictly stop loss and control risks.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.