Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long
Updated

Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | July 14, 2025

198

🔍 Momentum Analysis
D1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently reversing to the upside, indicating that the bullish trend may continue into early next week (Monday).

H4 Timeframe: Momentum has entered the overbought zone, suggesting that a short-term correction is likely to bring momentum back down into oversold territory.

🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H4 chart, we observe a contracting triangle pattern (abcde) approaching its final stages.

In the Friday trading plan, we anticipated that the corrective phase had ended and price was entering a new impulsive wave. However, there are two irregularities worth noting:

A pin bar candle with high volume has appeared at the resistance zone near 3365, while H4 momentum is overbought. This signals a likely short-term correction — something that ideally should not happen if price is already in wave 3. Ideally, price should have surged to 3402 on Friday to strengthen the bullish case.

On the H1 chart, bullish candles are small and overlapping, reflecting weak bullish momentum and a lack of conviction from buyers.

These two signs suggest that the market may still be within the correction phase, and the 3402 level will serve as a key confirmation zone to determine whether the correction has truly ended.

💡 Trading Outlook
The bullish momentum on the D1 chart still supports BUY positions for the coming week.

However, since the H4 chart is overbought, a short-term pullback is likely.

We will look to buy on dips toward lower support zones, targeting a move toward 3393 – 3402, which remains the target area as outlined in Friday’s plan with the original entry at 3332 – 3330.

📊 Trading Plan
BUY Zone: 3342 – 3340

Stop Loss (SL): 3330

Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3370

Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3393
Trade active
+80 pips
snapshot
Trade closed: target reached
+200 pips
snapshot

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