4 HOUR ANALYSIS
Price consolidation failed to form bearish momentum within our ascending and descending trendlines forming a wedge as seen on my previous posts. The price broke out of the minor resistance of 6000, and went up going to 6500 where we had our short entry placed. Fundamentally speaking, Friday started off with positive economic news, which ultimately spiked the price higher on Bitcoin reaching furthest points of the resistance area around 6900.
Buying volume remains very low at the moment and the situation with COVID-19, stock market, oil, etc. is still looking very weak. We saw Bitcoin form significant correlation with the S&P index recently, and any positive signs of the indexes performing well, will keep boosting the Bitcoins price higher. Whereas negative signs, will keep boosting the price lower. Indeed, Bitcoin is going to end up being a hedge against the economy in general, but for that we need more stability to form up and the volatility to take a chill pill. With that being said, let's take a look at the higher time frame technicals:
DAILY ANALYSIS
Bitcoin managed to come up to the 6500 resistance area, but failed to hold it and formed further upside momentum to 6900. BUT, despite going up all the way up there, we still remain in the resistance zone. Frankly speaking, a clear break out of 7000 would trigger bullish view points but in the meantime we are still circulating at the zone of confluence within this resistance (6500-6900), which can be seen more clearly looking at the daily time frames. Personally, I have placed another short entry at 6850.
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Going into the weekly analysis, we can see quite an important ascending trendline formed, where the past 2 weekly candles seemed to have closed above it with the wicks just below it. This doesn't exactly confirm our bearish breakout yet so the following few weeks to come are very important to look out for. In other words, we need to see a clear breakout of this ascending trendline on the weekly chart in order to have a clear bearish sentiment.
MINING SITUATION:
I am still waiting for the mining difficulty to be updated (which should be coming up within the next 4 days), but I can tell you that it wont be looking too strong with the overall hash rate dropping significantly. This is showing that bitcoin miners are pausing their operations for the moment, as the electricity fees are causing them higher overall expenses than the profits generated on mining (unless you are one of those lucky bastards with $0.01 electricity costs per Kw/h). This generally pushes the Bitcoins price lower but this isn't the major fundamental factor that is driving the markets now as previously stated. We saw Bitmain announce it's new retail mining units that are capable of generating over 100TH/s, and once they are put out in action, we will see a significant recovery for the Bitcoin mining world.
HALVING AROUND THE CORNER
Bitcoin halving is going to occur in May. Previously, we saw this as a long term positive effect on Bitcoins price action. This doesn't happen right away though and we can see the situation play out differently this year due to Coronavirus. I won't go too much into detail on this point. You can view my previous post on Bitcoin Halving if you are looking to get more detailed information.
CONCLUSION
I am still bearish on Bitcoin with the negative fundamental situation happening around the world and placed my short entry at 6850 which was already triggered and is in profits. I am expecting to see further downside over the weekend, and we should see Monday opening up with huge gaps on all asset classes (including Bitcoin futures on the CME exchange), which can also be taken as an indication for further price action.
I will keep the post updated if anything comes up or changes!
*This is NOT a financial advice, trade at your own risk!
Thanks for taking the time to read this, leave a like if you found this useful!
Price consolidation failed to form bearish momentum within our ascending and descending trendlines forming a wedge as seen on my previous posts. The price broke out of the minor resistance of 6000, and went up going to 6500 where we had our short entry placed. Fundamentally speaking, Friday started off with positive economic news, which ultimately spiked the price higher on Bitcoin reaching furthest points of the resistance area around 6900.
Buying volume remains very low at the moment and the situation with COVID-19, stock market, oil, etc. is still looking very weak. We saw Bitcoin form significant correlation with the S&P index recently, and any positive signs of the indexes performing well, will keep boosting the Bitcoins price higher. Whereas negative signs, will keep boosting the price lower. Indeed, Bitcoin is going to end up being a hedge against the economy in general, but for that we need more stability to form up and the volatility to take a chill pill. With that being said, let's take a look at the higher time frame technicals:
DAILY ANALYSIS
Bitcoin managed to come up to the 6500 resistance area, but failed to hold it and formed further upside momentum to 6900. BUT, despite going up all the way up there, we still remain in the resistance zone. Frankly speaking, a clear break out of 7000 would trigger bullish view points but in the meantime we are still circulating at the zone of confluence within this resistance (6500-6900), which can be seen more clearly looking at the daily time frames. Personally, I have placed another short entry at 6850.
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Going into the weekly analysis, we can see quite an important ascending trendline formed, where the past 2 weekly candles seemed to have closed above it with the wicks just below it. This doesn't exactly confirm our bearish breakout yet so the following few weeks to come are very important to look out for. In other words, we need to see a clear breakout of this ascending trendline on the weekly chart in order to have a clear bearish sentiment.
MINING SITUATION:
I am still waiting for the mining difficulty to be updated (which should be coming up within the next 4 days), but I can tell you that it wont be looking too strong with the overall hash rate dropping significantly. This is showing that bitcoin miners are pausing their operations for the moment, as the electricity fees are causing them higher overall expenses than the profits generated on mining (unless you are one of those lucky bastards with $0.01 electricity costs per Kw/h). This generally pushes the Bitcoins price lower but this isn't the major fundamental factor that is driving the markets now as previously stated. We saw Bitmain announce it's new retail mining units that are capable of generating over 100TH/s, and once they are put out in action, we will see a significant recovery for the Bitcoin mining world.
HALVING AROUND THE CORNER
Bitcoin halving is going to occur in May. Previously, we saw this as a long term positive effect on Bitcoins price action. This doesn't happen right away though and we can see the situation play out differently this year due to Coronavirus. I won't go too much into detail on this point. You can view my previous post on Bitcoin Halving if you are looking to get more detailed information.
CONCLUSION
I am still bearish on Bitcoin with the negative fundamental situation happening around the world and placed my short entry at 6850 which was already triggered and is in profits. I am expecting to see further downside over the weekend, and we should see Monday opening up with huge gaps on all asset classes (including Bitcoin futures on the CME exchange), which can also be taken as an indication for further price action.
I will keep the post updated if anything comes up or changes!
*This is NOT a financial advice, trade at your own risk!
Thanks for taking the time to read this, leave a like if you found this useful!
Trade active
6 Hours until daily candle close. Bearish momentum has finally started showing its presence, however, the volume remains relatively small so we are still quite skeptical of the upcoming moves of Bitcoin. Will update laterNote
Trade going really well now! To confirm further downside we need to see a solid break below 6000 level of support!!!Note
We are now retesting the ascending trendline on 4h.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.