Possible scenario I've worked out for XBTUSD where the remaining "weak hands" get shaken out. Many in the community have felt that 5800ish would be the last true "bottom" before where start the new bull run. I feel this analysis fits that narrative pretty well. As shown price appears to be in a channel similar to that of 05/28-06/09 which led to a breakdown of about 16-17% of price; if history were to repeat here we'd have the move down required to reach the price point of ~ $5800.
Furthermore with all the bullish news recently regarding Tether, ETC being added to Coinbase (which to me would signal an increase in liquidity and demand for BTC at the very least to be able to purchase and load up on ETC - and even the ETC pump was incredibly lackluster in comparison to pumps we've witnessed when just RUMORS have gone out regarding XRP being added to coinbase) and SEC ruling on Bitcoin & Ethereum not being a security we would have expected a significant increase in price/volume and overall interest in BTC which we clearly have not gotten as of yet - I mean even with the SEC news the most we got was a $250 green candle. I am just not seeing the interest in crypto at the moment that we saw preluding the rallies in 2017 and for these reasons I am biased to believe that we have one more drop, one more chance to "BTFD" before we embark on the epic run everyone is awaiting.
Furthermore with all the bullish news recently regarding Tether, ETC being added to Coinbase (which to me would signal an increase in liquidity and demand for BTC at the very least to be able to purchase and load up on ETC - and even the ETC pump was incredibly lackluster in comparison to pumps we've witnessed when just RUMORS have gone out regarding XRP being added to coinbase) and SEC ruling on Bitcoin & Ethereum not being a security we would have expected a significant increase in price/volume and overall interest in BTC which we clearly have not gotten as of yet - I mean even with the SEC news the most we got was a $250 green candle. I am just not seeing the interest in crypto at the moment that we saw preluding the rallies in 2017 and for these reasons I am biased to believe that we have one more drop, one more chance to "BTFD" before we embark on the epic run everyone is awaiting.
Note
History seeming to repeat itself here, we've definitely broken out of the channel we were in. A close below 6k may just push our target point for the bottom lower to around the 4600-ish mark due to the downward price momentum which could trigger a crazed sell-off. Ideally I'd like to see price close around the 6100ish mark where we'd trickle down and get a new swing low at the projected 5800 mark. Nonetheless I've reduced my short size - as per my previous post I do feel we are approaching the bottom and would I'd be hesitant to open up any new shorts.Trade closed: target reached
Short closed on target of 5800. Sitting on my hand for the time being, we got our bounce off of our target price but we may not be out of the woods just yet. Would like to see 6700 and 7500 level broken before proclaiming a bull run has begun.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.