Hello friends. You surely remember when I created my idea "The Greatest Short of All Time". And it was. XLE proceeded to print a mind-shattering collapse, exactly as I had forseen. But now, we have had a pullback as expected and it is time for a new short.
There are several reasons why energy is bearish now.
For one, there is a highly bearish seasonal window which we are entering right now for gasoline
On top of this, Natural Gas just formed a Scam Top pattern and is hurtling towards the downside rapidly
Rates continue to rise, and inflation has obviously peaked at this point, with the latest CPI reading at a flat 0% and future readings quite possibly geared up to start bleeding into the negatives. Kalshi predicts an annual inflation between 7.0-7.9%. I think it's more likely to be even lower, but even Kalshi's conservative estimate would already be a decrease in inflation for this year
There appear to be some large trader purchasing massive amounts of puts on XLE
Insiders also have not eased off even a bit and are still selling XLE hand over fist
We will play this idea by purchasing a reasonable amount of XLE puts which are dated to expire on September 30th and have a strike price at $80.
I have a feeling that guy who shit all over every one of my energy short ideas, saying it was impossible for XLE to collapse, is now resting peacefully 6 feet under. But if you are him and reading this, I just want to give you a huge L. You deserve it.
Thanks for playing.
There are several reasons why energy is bearish now.
For one, there is a highly bearish seasonal window which we are entering right now for gasoline
On top of this, Natural Gas just formed a Scam Top pattern and is hurtling towards the downside rapidly
Rates continue to rise, and inflation has obviously peaked at this point, with the latest CPI reading at a flat 0% and future readings quite possibly geared up to start bleeding into the negatives. Kalshi predicts an annual inflation between 7.0-7.9%. I think it's more likely to be even lower, but even Kalshi's conservative estimate would already be a decrease in inflation for this year
There appear to be some large trader purchasing massive amounts of puts on XLE
Insiders also have not eased off even a bit and are still selling XLE hand over fist
We will play this idea by purchasing a reasonable amount of XLE puts which are dated to expire on September 30th and have a strike price at $80.
I have a feeling that guy who shit all over every one of my energy short ideas, saying it was impossible for XLE to collapse, is now resting peacefully 6 feet under. But if you are him and reading this, I just want to give you a huge L. You deserve it.
Thanks for playing.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.