1. Price Action & Technical Structure
Price has bounced off a strong daily demand zone (1011–969).
Today’s daily candle shows a clear rejection wick from the low, and RSI is signaling a potential reversal.
The market is trading inside a falling channel, currently near the lower boundary — setting up a possible breakout move.
Technical Targets:
• First upside target: 1039–1049
Invalidation: daily close below 990, which would confirm structural breakdown.
2. COT Report – Soybeans Futures (as of July 9, 2025)
• Non-Commercials:
+11,539 spreads | +7,017 shorts | –7,520 longs → Slight bearish pressure, though spreads suggest growing speculative complexity.
• Commercials:
+7,876 longs | –9,084 shorts → Moderate commercial bullish bias.
• Open Interest:
+8,076 contracts → Market activity increasing.
Overall COT positioning is neutral to slightly bullish, with growing signs of accumulation around the 1000 level.
3. Seasonality – MarketBulls
Historically, July is one of the weakest months for Soybeans:
• –44.82 (20Y avg)
• –36.86 (15Y avg)
• –34.74 (10Y avg)
However, early August shows signs of seasonal recovery, and price action is already diverging from typical seasonal behavior.
This makes a deeper breakdown less likely — we could be nearing the end of the seasonal weakness.
Operational Takeaway
Current Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish
Confluence of signals supports the idea of a technical rebound:
✅ Bullish reaction candle in demand
✅ Fibonacci support + lower trendline touch
✅ COT data stabilizing with rising open interest
✅ Seasonal weakness possibly exhausted
Price has bounced off a strong daily demand zone (1011–969).
Today’s daily candle shows a clear rejection wick from the low, and RSI is signaling a potential reversal.
The market is trading inside a falling channel, currently near the lower boundary — setting up a possible breakout move.
Technical Targets:
• First upside target: 1039–1049
Invalidation: daily close below 990, which would confirm structural breakdown.
2. COT Report – Soybeans Futures (as of July 9, 2025)
• Non-Commercials:
+11,539 spreads | +7,017 shorts | –7,520 longs → Slight bearish pressure, though spreads suggest growing speculative complexity.
• Commercials:
+7,876 longs | –9,084 shorts → Moderate commercial bullish bias.
• Open Interest:
+8,076 contracts → Market activity increasing.
Overall COT positioning is neutral to slightly bullish, with growing signs of accumulation around the 1000 level.
3. Seasonality – MarketBulls
Historically, July is one of the weakest months for Soybeans:
• –44.82 (20Y avg)
• –36.86 (15Y avg)
• –34.74 (10Y avg)
However, early August shows signs of seasonal recovery, and price action is already diverging from typical seasonal behavior.
This makes a deeper breakdown less likely — we could be nearing the end of the seasonal weakness.
Operational Takeaway
Current Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish
Confluence of signals supports the idea of a technical rebound:
✅ Bullish reaction candle in demand
✅ Fibonacci support + lower trendline touch
✅ COT data stabilizing with rising open interest
✅ Seasonal weakness possibly exhausted
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.