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#gbpjpy#forex

GBPJPY continues its uptrend, aiming for 200,000 JPY.GBPJPY is currently trading within an ascending channel, with a strong rebound from support levels near 198,000 JPY. After forming a higher low at 199,000 JPY, the chart suggests the possibility of continuing the uptrend if GBPJPY can break through the next resistance at 200,000 JPY. Recent news about the UK GDP growth and statements from Bank of England (BoE) officials are supporting the British Pound. Additionally, the BoE's tightening monetary policy to control inflation is helping stabilize and strengthen the Pound against the Japanese Yen. On the other hand, with the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy remaining largely unchanged, the JPY continues to weaken amid economic challenges. If GBPJPY can break the 200,000 JPY resistance, the next upward target will be 201,000 JPY, and further towards 202,000 JPY. However, the current support lies at 199,000 JPY, and if this level is broken, a pullback to 198,000 JPY may occur.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
1
GBP/JPY breaks 200 barrierThe GBP/JPY has just broken above the 200.00 mark for first time since July 2024. The pounds has been boosted by a hawkish BoE rate cut last week, and mixed UK data underpins, while rising global yields and rallying equity markets are undermining the low-yielding Japanese yen. With the pair now above the 200.00 level, the key question now is whether the breakout will hold. Assuming it does, we could see a continuation of the rally towards the 202.00 level, which is now the next big resistance above here. Interim resistance comes in at 201.00 level. In terms of support 199.00 is a clear support level, marking the high from the day before and the middle trend of the bullish channel, which the pair has just reclaimed. Below that? 197.50 is the next stop in the event we see a sudden drop. UK wages fall more than expected Earlier today, we had some mixed data from the UK following last week’s Bank of England rate cut, which was a very close call when policymakers were sharply divided but ultimately agreed to cut rates. Today’s data showed average earnings increased by 4.6% in the three months to June compared to a year ago — weaker than the 5.0% rise we saw the previous month. On the jobs front, employment has now fallen eight times in the past nine months. However, the latest drop of 8,000 jobs is the smallest decline so far, suggesting the labour market may be stabilising. A weakening jobs market could ease wage inflation pressures and open the door to further rate cuts, but whether this happens at November’s meeting remains uncertain following that hawkish cut last week, meaning the chance of another cut in November is now lower. Meanwhile, a UK data dump is scheduled for Thursday when we will have Q2 GDP as well as monthly data on construction output, manufacturing production and a few other indicators to look forward to. The odds of a further BoE rate cut this year will continue to tumble in the event we see stronger data from the UK this week. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Long
by FOREXcom
GBP/JPY Trap? Smart Money Might Be Setting Up the Next Drop📊 1. Technical Overview Price broke the bullish structure decisively, closing below a key demand zone between 195.00–196.00, leaving a large unfilled imbalance. Last week's recovery candle suggests a potential pullback toward 197.40–197.80, now acting as a resistance confluence. The descending channel and weak RSI further support a continuation of the bearish trend. Bearish targets: 193.50 and 192.20 📈 2. COT (Commitment of Traders) Report GBP: Non-commercials are cutting long positions (–5,961) and adding shorts (+6,637) → Bearish divergence developing on GBP. JPY: Non-commercials are heavily increasing short exposure (+15,113), but remain strongly net-long overall, indicating a potential exhaustion of bullish JPY positioning. 💭 3. Retail Sentiment Positioning is neutral: 51% long / 49% short. This balance suggests no excessive retail bias, leaving room for directional moves without immediate contrarian pressure. 📆 4. Seasonality August is historically bearish for GBP/JPY: • –2.82% (20Y average) • –3.04% (15Y average) • –1.44% (5Y average) The data shows a consistent historical bias to the downside during this month. 🎯 5. Strategic Outlook • Primary Bias: Bearish below 197.40–197.80 • Invalidation: Weekly close above 198.10 • Targets: 195.00 > 193.50 > 192.20 The confluence of technical rejection, bearish COT dynamics, neutral sentiment, and negative seasonality supports a corrective scenario for August.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
GBPJPY holds momentum, waiting for the final pushThe GBPJPY pair is moving sideways between 197.400 and 199.000, while maintaining its position inside the ascending price channel. Each pullback is quickly absorbed near the lower support, indicating that buying pressure is quietly building. 💡 Bullish factors supporting the trend: – UK Services PMI beats expectations, strengthening economic outlook. – BOJ maintains negative interest rates, weakening the JPY. – Risk-on sentiment drives capital back into the GBP. 🎯 Suggested strategy: Buy near 197.400 or on a breakout above 199.000. Target: 201.500 | Stop-loss: below 196.800.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
2
GBPJPY – Losing control zone, downtrend taking shapeGBPJPY is still trading within a long-term ascending price channel. However, what’s concerning is that recent price action has broken out of the previously established price box – which had acted as a stabilizing structure for the uptrend. Buyers failed to maintain momentum, repeatedly getting rejected at the top of the box. Currently, GBPJPY is showing signs of breaking below the short-term support inside the price box, raising the risk of a deeper correction toward the lower boundary of the channel. A “lower high” structure is clearly forming, confirming that selling pressure is taking over. From a news perspective, the Japanese yen is gaining strength as risk-off sentiment increases, while the pound is losing ground due to cautious tones from the Bank of England following a string of weak economic data. This shift is weakening GBP's appeal and could accelerate the bearish trend. Strategy: Wait to SELL if price pulls back to the former resistance zone within the price box and shows rejection signals. The downtrend will be confirmed if the recent low is broken. Stay out if there’s no clear confirmation. What do you think will happen next with GBPJPY?
Short
by Rocky_trade_
GBPJPY – Bearish pressure returns near ascending channel supportGBPJPY is trading close to the lower trendline of the ascending channel, with the 197.400 zone acting as a key support. A breakdown below this level could trigger stronger bearish momentum. On the news front, Japan’s CPI remains solid, strengthening the yen. Meanwhile, the British pound is under pressure after recent consumer spending data showed signs of weakness, raising concerns over the UK’s economic outlook. Strategy: If the price breaks below 197.400 and fails to bounce back, consider SELL setups in line with the bearish trend. If it rebounds, watch the reaction around the 199.100 zone for signs of recovery confirmation.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
GBPJPY – is the end of the range near?After nearly two weeks stuck in the 197.600–200.000 range, GBPJPY has successfully shaken off a bearish fakeout and is now consolidating near the upper FVG zone. The bullish structure remains intact within the rising channel – and this time, the market may not forgive another missed opportunity. Supporting news: – UK CPI data released yesterday came in hotter than expected → inflation pressure is back → market expects the BoE to stay hawkish → GBP gains strength. – Meanwhile, the JPY continues to weaken as the BoJ maintains ultra-low interest rates, setting the stage for this pair to surge. A breakout above 200.000 could open the door for a push toward the channel top – this could be the ignition point for a major summer rally.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
GBPJPY – breakout loading: final leap to 200.500?After days of compression, GBPJPY is flashing clear signs of an explosive breakout. Price is holding firmly above the ascending trendline and consolidating right at the top of the FVG zone – a strong signal that buyers are preparing to punch through the 200.500 resistance in one decisive move. Meanwhile, the JPY continues to lose ground as the BoJ shows no clear intention to hike rates, while GBP gains support on expectations that the BoE will maintain its hawkish stance longer due to persistent core inflation. Trade setup (reference): Buy limit: 198.900 SL: below 198.500 TP: 200.500
Long
by Rocky_trade_
GBPJPY set for breakoutGBPJPY is currently trading in a sideways pattern within an ascending channel. The support zone around 197.900 has been respected multiple times, while price repeatedly fails to break above the 199.800 resistance – signaling that built-up pressure may soon erupt. Recent data shows that UK inflation remains high, and the Bank of England may maintain its hawkish stance, supporting the GBP. Meanwhile, global risk-off sentiment continues to weaken the JPY. If price breaks through the current resistance, it would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, with a target toward the upper boundary of the red channel. However, if rejection persists, buying from support remains a valid strategy.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
GBPJPY – Eyeing new highs as bullish structure holdsGBPJPY continues to trade within a steady ascending channel and has recently bounced from short-term support around 198.200. If price breaks above 199.400, bullish momentum could strengthen, targeting the previous high near 200.800 — a key resistance zone that has been rejected before. From a fundamental perspective, expectations that the Bank of England will maintain high interest rates to combat inflation are supporting the pound. Meanwhile, investor sentiment remains cautious toward the yen following dovish signals from the Bank of Japan. If upcoming UK economic data is positive, GBPJPY may continue climbing in the sessions ahead.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
GBPJPY: floating at the top – is a drop being loaded?GBPJPY is hovering around 198.91 after an impressive rally, but now it's trapped between two key zones: 199.85 – a resistance level that keeps rejecting price, and 198.20 – a fragile support below. The price action reveals a tense sideways pattern, like a spring coiling up before release. What’s concerning is that buyers have attempted to break above the high multiple times and failed – and each failure comes with weaker rebounds. With the Bank of England shifting toward a “pause” stance and the yen gaining mild support from rising risk-off sentiment, the market is starting to lean toward a correction. If price breaks below 198.20, it could mark the beginning of a deeper slide back toward the lower boundary of the channel. Don’t be fooled by the silence – sometimes, calm is the precursor to a sharp fall.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
9
GBPJPY – Correction Pressure Is Building UpGBPJPY is still trading within a well-defined ascending channel on the H4 chart. However, recent signals suggest a potential short-term correction. The price has repeatedly rejected the upper boundary of the channel and is now forming a distribution pattern with lower highs. The FVG zone near 200.400 may act as a short-term take-profit area before price pulls back toward the support zone around 198.400, which also aligns with the lower trendline. Additionally, the upcoming UK GDP data this week could strongly impact GBP. If the data comes in weaker than expected, downside pressure may intensify and reinforce the developing correction scenario. Traders should monitor price action around 198.400 for confirmation of the pullback.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
GBPJPY sitting at resistance – Is a drop to 193.360 likely?GBPJPY is sitting right at a key daily resistance zone. This is a level where it has struggled to break through and reversed strongly to the downside. So this makes it definitely one to monitor, especially if you’re eyeing potential short setups. If we start seeing signs that the price is getting rejected here: like long wicks, strong bearish candles, it could be the early indication of another move lower. My focus is on a moderate drop toward the 193.360 area, similar to what we’ve seen in past pullbacks. Nothing too dramatic, just a simple downside play if sellers step in again. But if we get a strong breakout? That changes everything: it would hint that bulls are taking full control. This area is pretty important and could give us a better idea of where price is headed next. Just sharing my thoughts on support and resistance, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TrendDiva
31