BTC – Holding or Rolling?BTC has pushed up from the late June low and is now testing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone from the prior downswing. Price is currently sitting around 109.5K–110K, directly in a high-confluence rejection area. This level aligns with the top of the recent range, 78.6% retracement, Bollinger Band resistance, and the zone where the last breakdown began.
While the move resembles a double bottom or W-pattern on first glance, structure invalidates the bullish case:
The second low was lower than the first, breaking symmetry.
The second high is still lower than the June high near 111.9K.
RSI made a lower high while price made a higher high — classic momentum divergence.
Volume has not increased meaningfully on the bounce, suggesting a lack of strong buyer commitment.
Until BTC reclaims and holds above 111.9K on strong volume, this looks like a lower high inside a broader downtrend.
Short Setup Thesis
Entry Zone:
109.5K–110.5K (zone of rejection, aligned with 78.6% Fib and prior supply)
Stop Loss Zone:
Above 112K–113K (a full reclaim of prior highs would invalidate the setup)
Target Zones:
TP1: 102K–100K (local support range and prior consolidation area)
TP2: 97K–95K (Fibonacci cluster and volume shelf)
TP3: 91K–88K (structure low and potential sweep zone)
Break Trigger / Confirmation:
A daily close below 106K–105K would confirm bearish continuation. Weak retests into this zone would provide additional short entry opportunities.
