$BTC Leading Macro Indicator Chart Predicted the Nuke to The DayYet again this chart predicted the nuke to the day 💣
I know I shouldn't be surprised at this point, but I'm still fascinated by how accurate technical analysis can be 🤓
12weeklead
$BTC 12-Week Lead Correlation w/ Global Liquidity, M2, GOLD, DXYHere’s a look at Bitcoin's price action against Global Liquidity, Global M2, GOLD and DXY - all with a 12-Week Lead.
Notice GOLD has a bit more of a deviation from the BTC price than the others.
This is because GOLD is used as a store of value asset, whereas the others are predicated on Central Banks expanding and contracting their money supply and balance sheets.
The key here is to smooth out the signal and ignore the noise.
Notice the convergence between these metrics the past couple months.
$BTC Tracks $GOLD Very Closely With 12-Week LeadCould it really be this simple?
Maybe we can just throw Global M2 out the window and track TVC:GOLD with a 12-Week Lead.
Someone pointed this out to me yesterday when I posted Gold's near 1/1 tracking with Global M2.
*Note the deviation in CRYPTOCAP:BTC PA from the ETF hype.
Global M2 MONEY SUPPLY VS GLOBAL LIQUIDITYWhich is the best to track ₿itcoin price action?
Lots of macro gurus have been arguing over the two.
For comparison, I have indexes for both metrics on a 12-Week Lead, tracking the 4 largest central banks:
The Federal Reserve (including TGA & RRP), People’s Bank of China, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.
Let’s start by defining each.
Global M2 Money Supply covers physical cash in circulation and cash equivalents such as checking and savings deposits, as well as money market securities.
Global Liquidity covers a broader measure of liquid assets driven by central bank balance sheets, private sector financial activity (e.g., lending, corporate cash), and cross-border capital flows.
Historically, both move closely in lock-step and act as a great leading indicator for ₿itcoin, however we can see that Global Liquidity can have more drastic fluctuations.
We saw a large divergence in CRYPTOCAP:BTC PA with both metrics when the Blackrock iShares ₿itcoin ETF appeared on the DTCC list, a procedural step signaling progress toward potential approval.
When you look at the charts of all three, you can see there are points where either metric might follow CRYPTOCAP:BTC PA a bit closer, so in the end I would say it’s best to track both to find confluence in the signal.
