TLT - Extreme Losses Ahead / Bond Market Peak March 2020Yields rising will only serve to further drive - ZN (10 Yr Futures), ZB (10 Yr Futures), and TLT
into the Abyss.
They have all broken down, with the 10 Yr Yield moving up significantly Friday back towards 1.8.
We indicated over the past 7 Month the day of reckoning for Bonds was fast approaching. In November
I doubled down with further warnings explaining in great detail the larger Issues for Bonds to reiterate
the Intermediate and Long Term Risks.
My Thesis for Bonds was they would become "perpetual" Instruments whereby Holders would be
able to clip their Coupons but unable to redeem them one day in the not too distant Future.
The Debt cannot be serviced, even with cheaper Dollars. We see the effects of all the excesses
sloshing around. It will continue to choose valueless propositions outside of Real Estate, Equities,
Metals, Commodities, Energy and Meta in the Wings.
The Wind cried Mary over and overstating it was lunacy, Bonds would benefit in any serious Selling
of Equities. In Sum, I was the fool, idiot, and wrong in the absolute.
This has not happened, instead, the conventional analysis, dependent on a Paradigm that no longer
exists... it failed and very badly.
The Curve is not steepening. This is where the Bond Participants, Touts, and YouTube Tribe - got it 100% wrong.
It is quite simple - there are Capital Stocks for rotation, Equities will eventually see inflows as Bonds continue their
collapse. TLT will be decimated as will ZN and ZB.
As Captial from Bonds flows to Equities once the breakdown finds Bond Buyers exiting the Complex as they
realize their mistake(s) - this will serve to drive Equities far Higher for a short period of time.
This will be the 5/5 of the Larger 5/5 for the Equities Complex.
We will see a parabolic melt-up in Equities once this begins - after this correction completes.
It will be the Fuel for the Final move up in the Equity Complex.
The Federal Reserve will, at some point, go too far, make a large Policy mistake and then Equities will collapse.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
It takes time to turn a Battleship.
Bonds have turned from the Historic End of their Supreme reign for decades.
Price may range for a short period of time, but make no mistake, Bonds have entirely lost
their Status Globally.
If you somehow believe the Federal Reserve will support the Bond Complex, you have had multiple
opportunities to see the Forrest and no longer trip on twigs. It has been detailed here since July of
2021.
