BBAI Earnings & Options Snapshot (2025-08-11)🤖 BBAI Earnings & Options Snapshot (2025-08-11)
### BigBear.ai \ NYSE:BBAI — **Moderate Bearish Setup**
---
### ⚡ Quick Highlights:
* **Revenue:** +4.9% TTM growth — modest but stable.
* **Margins:** Profit margin -143.7%, operating margin -56.1% — deep losses despite 28.5% gross margin.
* **Guidance History:** Weak — only 38% beat rate, avg surprise -182%. Forward EPS estimate -\$0.20.
* **Analyst Sentiment:** Bearish, target \$5.83 vs current \$7.14 — downside risk looming.
### 🔍 Options Market Intel:
* Mixed flow, but **puts lead at \$7 strike** (18,763 OI) vs calls (16,792 OI).
* Defensive positioning by institutions suggests caution ahead.
* Options Flow Score: 5/10 — neutral but bearish lean.
### 📈 Technicals:
* Price up 8% pre-earnings but volume low (0.53x avg), signaling weak buyer conviction.
* Support at \$6.50, resistance at \$7.50.
* RSI neutral; momentum mixed.
### 🌎 Macro & Sector Context:
* AI growth tailwind, but inflation & regulations cloud outlook.
* Low VIX (\~15.15) limits extreme volatility but allows strategic plays.
---
### 🎯 Trade Setup:
**Buy \$7 Put — Exp 08/15**
* Entry: \$0.70
* Stop Loss: \$0.35 (50%)
* Profit Target: \$1.40 (100%)
* Position Size: Max 2% portfolio risk
* Timing: Enter pre-earnings close, exit quickly post-earnings to avoid IV crush
---
### ⚠️ Risk / Reward:
| Metric | Value |
| ------------- | -------------- |
| Entry Price | \$0.70 |
| Profit Target | \$1.40 (+100%) |
| Stop Loss | \$0.35 (-50%) |
| Confidence | 68% |
---
### 📊 JSON Trade Signal for API / Bots:
```json
{
"instrument": "BBAI",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 7.00,
"expiry": "2025-08-15",
"confidence": 68,
"profit_target": 1.40,
"stop_loss": 0.35,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.70,
"entry_timing": "pre_earnings_close",
"earnings_date": "2025-08-11",
"earnings_time": "AMC",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-11T14:44:49-04:00"
}
```
---
# 🚨 **BBAI ALERT: MIXED TECH MOMENTUM BUT BEARISH OPTIONS FLOW SIGNALS DOWNSIDE RISK — TRADE CAUTIOUSLY!** 🚨
