Agilon Health (Revised) | AGL | Long at $0.76This is a revised analysis of Agilon Health NYSE:AGL as seen here:
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Full disclosure: I am a holder of shares at $2.36, $0.76, and $0.79. Last entry planned near $0.50 if it reaches that level. Current cost average is near $1.11.
Let me be clear: This is a ***highly risky*** trade given the recent news regarding the CEO, securities fraud investigation, suspension of FY guidance. Do your own due diligence.
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The link above/previous writeup details some of the basic fundamentals of Agilon Health NYSE:AGL . As predicted, the price fell below $1 after the most recent earnings call. This was due to:
Revenue down 6% to $1.4B, Medicare Advantage membership at 498,000.
CEO Steve Sell resigning, Ron Williams appointed Executive Chairman.
2025 guidance suspended due to market challenges.
New securities fraud investigations.
I think the challenges NYSE:AGL is going through will extend through 2025 in into early 2026. If you look at the healthcare sector, it has taken a beating mostly due to Medicare and Medicaid cuts / rising healthcare costs. NYSE:AGL is not profitable and wasn't expected to become profitable until 2028 - but that may get revised....
However, the company focuses on senior patients, primarily through Medicare Advantage and ACO REACH programs, targeting value-based care for older adults across 31+ communities in 12 states. The need for services targeting the Baby Boom population is going to rapidly increase in the next few years. NYSE:AGL may become a leader in this area, but the company needs to regroup and focus on a model that returns money to investors - a dirty game. So, while the near-term is doom and gloom, the future could be very, very bright with NYSE:AGL if they are able to turn things around with this new leadership shakeup. Time will tell. It's a gamble. One I am, personally, willing to take.
Revised Targets into 2028:
$1.60 (+110.5%)
$3.00 (+294.7%)
