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Agricultural Commodities

Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 679.25 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 660.00 Preferred Case: Overall price is bearish on the H4 with a retail double top formed. Price is also below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Price has broken through and closed the pivot at 667.4 where the previous swing low is. Expecting price to continue this bearish momentum and head towards the 1st support at 660.0 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may reflect off the pivot back up towards the 1st resistance Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 679.25 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 660.00 Preferred Case: Overall price is bearish on the H4 with a retail double top formed. Price has broken through the 1st resistance at 679.25 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Price could possibly retrace back up towards 677.6 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and 1st resistance lie before heading down, breaking the pivot at 667.5 and then moving towards 1st support at 660.00 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may continue heading down towards the pivot before bouncing back up towards the 1st resistance. Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Supply bull vs. demand bear clouds cotton's outlookCotton prices have been very volatile in 2022. The three-month implied volatility on cotton is currently at 43.7% fast approaching the levels last seen in 2011. A pickup in volatility has historically been an important indicator of a change in trend. Back in 2011, Texas (the biggest growing cotton state in the US) witnessed the driest year on record. The reason for the drought was the weather anomaly La Nina. The La Nina results in an abnormal cooling of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is linked to severe droughts in the southwestern parts of the US. In the wake of the drought, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its estimate of 2011/12 cotton production by 1mn bales to 17mn bales. Cotton prices reached a record 215.151 USD/lbs in response. Drought plaguing US’s biggest cotton growing state We are seeing history repeat itself with a persistent drought in Texas this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees a 72% chance of La Nina between November and January raising the odds for a rare third-straight La Nina to form across the Pacific. USDA has slashed its supply projections for global cotton ending stocks by 1.5mn bales in 2022/23. Production is lowered nearly 3.1mn bales whilst consumption is reduced by 800,000 bales. US producers increased their cotton acreage by 11% this season to 5.05m hectares. But, with the drought becoming more severe over the last couple of months, the USDA expects that the harvested area won’t exceed 2.89m ha. The abandonment of 43%, if confirmed, will be by far the highest since USDA records began in 1960. Owing to historically high abandonment in the US Southwest region, US production estimates are forecast to reach their lowest level since 2009/10. The US is the world’s largest exporter of cotton, having more than 27% share of the world export market. That implies that the fall in US production will dampen the world trade surplus, putting pressure on declining inventories. Harsh climate conditions amongst key cotton producers threaten supply Unpredictable weather patterns have been challenging the cotton crop outlook in other key producer countries as well. Drought is hitting China’s cotton crop in the Xinjiang province, which grows majority of the country’s crop. In China, ending stocks are estimated at 36.2 million bales in 2022/23, the lowest in 4 years2. Australia, Brazil, and Pakistan experienced untimely rains that have reduced a large share of their grades. The World’s stocks to use ratio at 68.25% is at its lowest in five years highlighting the constraints on supply with respect to demand. Cotton’s demand outlook set to weaken amidst slowing global economy Cotton consumption is likely to weaken amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Europe is on the brink of a recession and the European consumer will be exposed to soaring energy costs. Meanwhile the US consumer’s spending pattern is shifting away from goods to services. In China, the economic headwinds are multifaceted – from a weaking property market, intermittent covid lockdowns alongside supply shortages to strategically imported goods. The outlook for apparel and textile consumption looks tricky. Consumption in 2022/23 is projected lower than a month ago in the US, Pakistan, Vietnam, Turkey, and Bangladesh3. Conclusion Supporting prices higher has been the 25.8%4 rise in speculative positioning over the past month. A 12% unwind in short positioning alongside a 10% build up in long positioning underscores the improvement in sentiment towards the cotton markets. The front end of the cotton futures curve remains in backwardation with a positive roll yield of 3.2% versus 8.5% a month back. Evidently the supply situation remains tight however amidst a tougher macroeconomic environment cotton prices are likely to walk a tight rope. In order for cotton prices to stage a sustained move higher we will need to see an improvement in demand. Sources 1 Source: Bloomberg as of 4 March 2011 2 Cotton Outlook August 2022, Economic Research Service 3 United States Department of Agriculture 4 Source: CFTC, from 19 July 2022 to 16 August 2022 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ICEUS:CT1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Playing with sugarLet's start with observing 2W chart, here we can see that: 1) price has been grinding across the trendline, which acted as resistance 2) following rejection at the resistance, we had a move down to ~0.174 range which formed a strong support 3) If the week closes at 0.18335 or higher, we have an official breakout from this sub-structure and impulse should take it to the former high, above 0.2. __________________________________ 2D chart clearly demonstrates how the price has just broken through the resistance line. The next logical target is indeed the range between 0.2 and 0.22. _________________________________ Let's zoom out further, monthly chart. Observing this chart, I would presume that there will be a battle to take out resistance over 0.2, but after that is broken we will likely see a significant run toward old highs, between 0.31 and 0.35.
OANDA:SUGARUSDLong
by Owcheew8
1
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 698.50 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: Price has reflected off the first support level at 698.50 on the H4 and appears to be descending again to test it. watch for the price to cross the first support level and go toward the pivot at 667.50, which is where the previous swing low lies. The chart appears to be constructing a double top with equal highs along the first resistance, which adds another confluence to this bias. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may bounce off the first support and continue moving back up toward the first resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Wheat Mini Futures (XW1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish rise Resistance : 1016'7 Pivot: 915'5 Support : 818'0 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 915'5, which is in line with the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 1016'7 where the 50% and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 818'0 where the overlap support and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT_MINI:XW1!Long
by Genesiv
the FOMC idea - SPX, BONDS, WHEAT, GOLD, DXY, BTCFomc is at 2pm today. Many are expecting a rally, and that could be - but be careful of a pump and dump. Another option is it just dumps to 3700 quickly which for me would be a buy zome. Bonds may be close to a turn and Powell may signal something dovish to that market today, Wheat looks good and now we are expecting pullbacks to be bought, Gold also looks good for a rally and DXY looks ready to pullback soon. BTC also holding support at that 19k level. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
6
WHEAT breakout long entryWHEAT had a beautiful breakout candle yesterday, breaking the prior consolidation zone. I'm most interested in this idea because once I ran fib retracements there is so much alignment: 618 is perfect prior support, 0.5 is a teeeeny tiny gap, 382 is a consolidation zone, and we've defeated 236. Follow through and it is off to $10 at minimum. TP/SL targets pictured on chart. SL: trade setup invalidated with a daily close below 8.45. TP: $10 and above, depending on how you trade
AMEX:WEATLong
by upslidedown
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 710.4 Pivot: 699.4 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, the price has bounced off the second support at 668.25 which is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line, and went above the first support at 679.25. Price has also gone above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish bias. Looking for price to continue bullish to hit the first resistance at 710.4 where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could bounce back down from the pivot structure and drop to first support to 679.25, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement line sits Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Wheat Rally back on with Russian AnnexWheat surged $60 last night as Russia annouced votes in the local donbas regions they control in Ukraine. Critical to the wheat exports the port in that area also means perhaps sanctions and increased fighting may hurt global supply already under pressure. Adding to momentum is global headline news about beer shortages which adds to the grain rally. As long as these issues persist Wheat may trade aggressively higher as commodites move alot more sharply with the start of the war brining highs of $1300.
EASYMARKETS:WHTUSDLong
by easyMarkets
Coffee part 29. 20. 22 As promised, this is part two of coffee. I would suggest that you spend some time mermaids 2 videos. did you do the work they should have some value. These are highly repeatable Patterns, and they should be thought of taking into account probability and risk. You would think that if a market opens on Monday and makes a new low...the market will probably move lower. However, you would be wrong, and you are subjecting yourself to a losing trade or a missed opportunity to go long Because you didn't factor in the importance obstruction, and the importance of buyers at that level. Everything is about probability, and your ability to factor in more than the most simplistic analysis. It can be done.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
ZC Potential for bearish momentumType : Bearish Drop Resistance :681.75 Pivot: 688.00 Support : 668.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price reflecting off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line and the price being inside ichimoku cloud, we have a neutral bias on corn. price could back to 668.25 where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price might go back up towards the pivot line at 688.00 Fundamentals: Top farming and food firms could lose up to a quarter of their value by 2030 if they do not adapt to new government policies and consumer behavior tied to climate change, United Nations-affiliated campaigners said in a new report. (Farm and food investors face $150 bln loss on climate change)
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to GoThis is a call I wanted to make yesterday, but didn't have time. With the time I had, there was a choice between this and a Nasdaq NS call and made the Nasdaq call: Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points But in fairness, I did pick up November options during yesterday's session, so at least I can say that much for myself, since this has some vibes of hindsight based on today's action. Regardless, Soybeans gives strong cause to believe bullish action is imminent, based on the monthly candles: What this tells us that our June high formed a double top with the '12 all-time high. But most critically, it formed a lower high double top, which means that MMs are likely to seek this level to crush bear skulls, and it's just a question of when. The post-resistance top was really a long gap fill and we've also had three months of consolidation. As everyone who's traded with real money knows, picking the direction and the price is not the hardest, but instead, the timing is the very hardest, and most critical, thing. And in terms of timing, the weekly gives us good cause to believe we're ready to go. We see that late July featured a gap up, which has been filled in and heavily consolidated over the course of five weeks: And thusly, there is significantly reduced reason to believe that Soybeans are set to seek new lows instead of new highs. And indeed, on the daily, what has manifested is a string of higher lows, culminating in this morning's gundown of the 1,400 level A gundown that looks exceptionally turtle soup on the 1H, albeit retrospectively since it already ripped. But note that the rip occurred at 9:00 just before NYSE opens, significant because there are ETFs like SOYB that get caught gap up. More importantly, maybe consider not trying to short the pop. Instead, going long on a pullback could be quite good. And so, in magnifying the timeframe down to the 4H, I discovered that targeting boxes that appeared correct on the wider time frame were a little too shallow on the lower time frames. Thusly, I have generated a "revised" targeting box. However, like I said, time is the harder consideration. I feel ZS will get there, but who knows when? In the meantime, a rundown of the 1,500 level, which corresponds with those August-July relative equal highs around ~1,485 is very realistic. Everyone knows the global food supply is in trouble because of all the drought . Whether it's corn, wheat, soy, or whatever. And while you can certainly expect a new all time high to be made, it's really a question of when. Months like December, January, and February when everything is both trapped in winter, a new calendar year, and people are struggling to pay incredibly high natural gas/electricity bills across the world resulting from problems governments have created since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine this year, may be the more likely time target for 2,000 point Soybeans.
CBOT:ZS1!
by LordWrymouth
3