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21062023 - #GBPUSDGBP is weaker than EUR and yesterday we see that price was hovering just at PZ and not able to go higher before the move down and eventually a recovery. EURGBP IMO is looking good for further upside. But anyway for GBPUSD, price action does point to further downside; with price capped by PZ now, looking for another revisit of yesterday's low at 1.2720 and even 1.2646. We have UK CPI data later so be careful. If my view on EURGBP is correct, then yes, the news could be a trigger for the move down (GBP to weaken).
by FadeMeIfYouCan
08062023 - #GBPUSDI was wrong with the direction yesterday, I said we would break down but instead it went up, while closing near the mid point. Price now supported by PZ; from current looks, it seemed to be supported and 1.2470 or so will be a magnet. Price action wise, market made higher lows and highs yesterday but direction is not so clear though bias is slightly to upside. IMO, DXY is strong but I expect some weakening (GBPUSD to up first) but DXY to rally later. Thus I plotted the possible path as a move to 1.2472 or so then a pullback to the BZ again. On downside, supports are at 1.2390, 1.2370 and 1.2340. Possible trades: short 1.2476 stops at 1.2490 tight stop (hard stop at 1.2510) target 1.2410, or if 1.2436 breaks, short to target 1.2370, 1.2340, stops at 1.2460, R:R 2-4. TBH, will prefer first scenario.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
31052023 - #GBPUSDGBPUSD gave an initial sell to take out Monday's low before rallying higher. DXY hit a resistance above on the initial sell but came down to 104 (and lower) - the level I mentioned before basing. In a way, I was too aggressive on my 1.2395 level; (though DXY was at 104). Market went past it, to above resistance before coming down and bounced off at this 1.2395 level ( where the daily and weekly BZ meets). Could see some further upside, but would like to see price pullback to 1.2383 or so, fake breakdown before price stabilize and look for up. In a way, I was too aggressive because the green candles of the previous days does point to bigger upside before any sell could come. For today, I would say that we can see that price is within the zones, held by weekly BZ now, while PZ and daily BZ are below as support.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
25052023 - $NDXNDX made a huge recovery after the initial sell off, hitting the weekly BZ and rebounded; I would say the initial up was technical, price is oversold at BB extremes but the subsequent rally was due to NDVA. Price is now supported by the BZ and PZ at the same prices thus a double support. TBH, I thought the rally was rubbish but price action is looking bullish now. I did say that I am not convinced of the rally; thus it would either be a case of NDX strength supporting the other indices, or NDX to falter and bringing SPX down with it. The location of such a bullish candle is uncommon to say the least, but I would say that to SPX/DJIA would be better candidates to go short from, while using NDX as reference.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
25052023 - #USDJPYOn Tuesday, market formed a doji and I said yesterday that expect a move down to re-test the lows (20 pips) and I was bullish DXY but indicate we might see risk off. Market hit the lows, did a fake out, then rallied higher. The BZ gave the lows and DXY did go higher and indices was risk off but still USDJPY went up. Today, we are approaching 139.89. It is a strong resistance. Am looking for some pullback/reversal from there. Overall, am still bullish dollar, though yes it had made a huge up move the past few days and could consolidate first. And I am still risk off (despite NDX rally, it looks fake to me). Taking into account the 2 points, IMO 139.89-140.31 is still levels to not hold longs but look for shorts. Just a point, note how nicely price made a fake dip down earlier on to the BZ before the move higher.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
24052023 - #GBPUSDGBPUSD gave almost perfect level to level move yesterday from BZ all the way down to PLOD and rebounded strongly back to OP, giving 120pips both ways. As mentioned, I am still bullish DXY, but it stalled at the monthly BZ. Could see some consolidation before the next move (up), thus this could show in GBPUSD. Note where PZ is and add to shorts on break of PZ and weekly BZ But based on price action, GBPUSD is oversold but looking for possibly another dip down to the below today or tomorrow - take most off at the lows and trail the rest because of possible bounce.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
24052023 - #USDJPYYesterday was much a risk off day with indices coming down but USDJPY ended flat as USD continue to shine (I am bullish on DXY and still is). Other currencies showed bearish price action against yen. But if you look at the daily candles, not much clue on the next direction; price look like it is just consolidating. Yesterday's candle is a doji; will it be a reversal candle? If DXY is to strengthen further as I mentioned, a reversal here will indicate risk off and probably further downside in indices. For now, price is capped by PZ; thus expect 138.25 to trade minimally (20 pips downside is nothing, yes). And based on the above thesis (of risk off), will like to see 137.67 trade today (stay bearish below 138.23 and trail stops to possibly 136.91.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
10052023 - #USDJPYDXY was strong yesterday but came down after hitting R at 101.75 or so. USDJPY as mentioned, 135.35 was strong R, which held the high, though it was much a sideways days for USDJPY. The same 135.35 level continue to act as R, though TBH tonight is CPI thus anything can happen. But for now, price action still look toppish here. IMO would likely revisit yesterday's low then it will be up to FOMC to trigger the next move. Below 135.11, expect a move to 134.65. If accepted then back up to 135.7. Rejection off which down to 133.77. However, if market can keep above 135.25, especially before FOMC, could trigger a strong up to 136.15 and 136.7 magnet.
by FadeMeIfYouCan