Altseason Index Proxy (TOTAL3 / BTC.D) Weekly TF
Symbol & Timeframe:
* **Symbol**: CRYPTOCAP\:TOTAL3 / CRYPTOCAP\:BTC.D
* **Timeframe**: Weekly (1W),
* **Purpose**: A clean, data-driven proxy for detecting altseason momentum
Technical Structure:
✅ Key Support Zones
* **13.47B (61.8% Fib)**: Critical golden zone; current price consolidation area
* **12.45B (50.0% Fib)**: Lower bound of golden zone
* **11.00B**: Historical support zone
* **8.15B (0.0%)**: Absolute bottom of retracement range
🔹 Hidden Bullish Divergence
* **MACD Histogram & Signal Lines** show hidden bullish divergence
* Price action forming **higher lows** while MACD makes **lower lows**
* Indicates trend continuation potential
🔢 Fibonacci Targets
TP1: 16.8B (100.0%)
TP2: 22.2B (161.8%)
TP3: 30.7B (261.8%)
🔄 Expected Path
* Potential short-term correction toward 12.4B followed by a breakout
* Bullish continuation path sketched with progressive Fib targets
📈 Macro & Fundamental Confluence
📉 Liquidity and Monetary Easing
* Global monetary policy is easing (e.g., Fed pivot expected mid-2025)
* Increased liquidity historically precedes strong altcoin rallies
BTC Dominance Decline
* BTC.D rolling down from long-term highs
* Signals beginning of capital rotation into altcoins
🚀 Emerging Narratives
* Rise of L2s (e.g., Base, zkSync), AI tokens, real-world asset protocols
* Fresh narratives tend to amplify altseason rotations
💼 Institutional Tailwinds
* Spot ETH ETF approvals pave way for alt ETF flows
* Regulatory clarity expected to reduce uncertainty in late 2025
Related Reference Charts:
🌐 TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap Excluding BTC & ETH)
📊 BTC Dominance (BTC.D)
These charts offer standalone confirmation of:
Altcoin strength forming on TOTAL3
BTC dominance facing structural resistance
Composite Altseason Thesis:
1. Liquidity injections + halving = BTC rally
2. BTC.D breakdown + TOTAL3 support = altcoin strength
3. Technical confirmations: hidden divergence, fib confluence
4. Narrative and regulatory catalysts = widespread rotation
**Conclusion**:
We are entering a prime zone for altseason acceleration. Price reclaim above 13.47B and continued BTC.D drop will validate bullish thesis. Monitor closely for breakouts past TP1 and momentum into TP2/TP3.
📌 Current status:
- Price rebounding in the 12.45–13.47B Fibonacci zone (50–61.8%)
- Hidden bullish divergence on MACD + ascending price structure
- BTC.D has rolled off 65% resistance — suggesting capital rotation
📊 Altseason Thesis:
1. Post-halving BTC rally → profit dispersion into altcoins
2. Macro conditions (Fed pivot, record liquidity) enabling risk-on environment
3. Technical confirmation via index momentum and fib structure
4. Narrative tailwinds: Layer-2 adoption, AI-crypto, altcoin ETF catalysts
📈 Targets:
- TP1 @ 16.8B (100% Fib)
- TP2 @ 22.2B (161.8% Fib)
- TP3 @ 30.7B (261.8% Fib)
🟢 Key support: 12.45–13.47B zone; breakout + BTC.D collapse = altseason trigger.
