Analysis
EURUSD - the upcoming US PCE & the ECB rate decisionAt the moment, we are seeing that the bulls are fighting hard to keep MARKETSCOM:EURUSD elevated. But they are struggling to overcome some key resistance barriers. But the upside doesn't look very promising, due to the upcoming US PCE numbers and the ECB rate decision. Let's dig into the possible near-term outcome scenarios for the $FX_IDC:EURUSD.
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GBP/USD Wedge Breakout (24.2.25)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2567
2nd Support – 1.2515
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1000000MOG: Is This the Last Chance to Buy Before a Breakout?The Moment of Decision: 1000000MOGUSDT at a Pivotal Crossroad
The crypto market is never short on surprises, and 1000000MOGUSDT is now in the spotlight. After tumbling 81.6% from its all-time high of $4.0531, the asset is showing signs of an imminent shift. Currently trading at $0.7458, it hovers near key resistance at $0.7693—a critical level that could define its next big move.
Technically, RSI (14) sits at 42.18, hinting at a potential reversal from oversold conditions. Meanwhile, MFI (60) has risen to 58.03, signaling increasing buying pressure. But is it enough for a breakout?
Recent VSA Buy Patterns suggest institutional accumulation, while yesterday's sell-off exhausted downward momentum. The battle between bulls and bears is heating up, and the next few sessions could set the tone for the coming weeks.
Could this be the final dip before an explosive move? Or will bears push it deeper into uncertainty? The answer lies in the price action around $0.7693—a breakout could bring a swift rally toward $0.8465 and beyond. Are you ready for what comes next?
1000000MOGUSDT Roadmap: The Pattern Trail to a Breakout
The market never moves in a straight line—it’s a battle of bulls and bears, and 1000000MOGUSDT is no exception. Let’s break down the key patterns that have shaped the recent price action, focusing only on those that played out as expected.
Feb 21, 17:00 UTC – Sell Volumes Max (Main Direction: Sell)
The heavy sell-off at $0.7875, closing at $0.7571, set the stage for a bearish move. The next pattern confirmed this sentiment, as buyers failed to regain control, pushing the price further down.
Feb 22, 18:00 UTC – VSA Sell Pattern 4 (Main Direction: Sell)
The textbook bearish setup worked like a charm. The price opened at $0.7996, attempted a push higher to $0.8191, but ultimately closed lower at $0.7870. This confirmed sellers’ dominance, setting the tone for further downside.
Feb 23, 15:00 UTC – Increased Sell Volumes (Main Direction: Sell)
Sell pressure kept building, with the price opening at $0.7823 and dropping to $0.7539. This was another clean confirmation that sellers were running the show.
Feb 24, 04:00 UTC – Sell Volumes Max (Main Direction: Sell)
Another bearish wave sent the price down to $0.7429, hitting a low of $0.7350. At this point, the market was looking oversold, but without a strong reversal pattern, buyers had no reason to step in.
Feb 24, 05:00 UTC – Sell Volumes Take Over (Main Direction: Buy)
Finally, a shift. The market bounced from $0.7383 to $0.7663, marking the first real attempt by buyers to flip the script. This pattern suggested a potential trend reversal—but was it enough?
The verdict? The last confirmed buy signal indicates that 1000000MOGUSDT may have hit a local bottom. With resistance looming at $0.7693, a breakout above this level could trigger a trend reversal, bringing bulls back into the game.
Technical & Price Action Analysis
When it comes to 1000000MOGUSDT, the game is all about key levels. Respect them, and you ride the wave. Ignore them, and you're swimming against the current. Here's what matters right now:
Resistance Levels:
$0.7693 – First major barrier; a breakout here could confirm bullish strength.
$0.8465 – If buyers take control, this is the next checkpoint.
$1.0149 – A key psychological level, marking a major shift in momentum.
$1.4334 – If we get here, expect serious volatility.
$1.9514 – The final boss before reclaiming lost highs.
Powerful Resistance Levels:
$0.5326 – If the market tanks, this level flips to a strong resistance on any rebound attempt.
Support Levels:
Watch for potential bounces, but if these levels don’t hold, they turn into resistance real quick.
Powerful Support Levels:
$2.1798 – A level too far now, but if we ever reclaim it, the game changes entirely.
Bottom line: if $0.7693 gives way, $0.8465 is on the radar. But if we break down, $0.5326 could become a serious problem for any recovery. Stay sharp, follow the levels, and trade with conviction.
Trading Strategies Using Rays: Optimistic & Pessimistic Scenarios
Concept of Rays: The market is a living system, and price moves dynamically within it. My proprietary method uses Fibonacci-based rays, which create adaptive levels that predict interactions between price and key zones. These rays don’t provide a static price target but act as guides—once price interacts with a ray, we wait for dynamic confirmations (patterns, volumes, and price action) before making a trade. Each movement extends from one ray to another, forming a structured, mathematically predictable path.
Optimistic Scenario: Bullish Movement from Support
If price confirms support at a key level and interacts positively with a VSA ray, we look for a continuation upward:
Entry: Buy on a strong bounce from $0.7458 with confirmation from VSA patterns.
First Target: $0.7693 (first major resistance & ray intersection).
Second Target: $0.8465 (continuation if the first breakout holds).
Third Target: $1.0149 (strong psychological level, potential liquidity grab).
Dynamic Factors Supporting the Trade:
Moving Averages (MA50: 0.783, MA100: 0.7757, MA200: 0.7807) act as additional resistance points—watch for price interaction at these levels before continuation.
RSI (42.18) is still in a neutral zone but could flip bullish if price holds above MA100.
MFI (58.03) suggests growing demand, adding strength to a breakout.
Pessimistic Scenario: Bearish Breakdown Below Support
If price fails to hold key levels, sellers regain control, and we shift to a shorting mindset:
Entry: Short after rejection from $0.7693, confirming downward momentum.
First Target: $0.7458 (previous support turned resistance).
Second Target: $0.5326 (historical powerful resistance that could flip to strong support).
Third Target: $0.4999 (absolute low, potential liquidity hunt).
Dynamic Factors Confirming the Short Trade:
Failure to break MA100 and MA200 signals continued bearish trend.
RSI below 40 would confirm oversold conditions, increasing downside pressure.
If volume spikes on a breakdown, it suggests institutional distribution rather than weak hands selling.
Key Trading Playbook
Buy on confirmed interaction with a bullish ray at $0.7458, ride to $0.7693.
Sell if price rejects $0.7693 with weak volume—target $0.7458 or $0.5326.
Breakout trade: If $0.8465 is taken out with momentum, next stop is $1.0149.
Short if price collapses under $0.7458, aiming for $0.5326.
Bottom line: Every move starts with a ray and follows a ray. Let the price confirm the interaction, then ride the wave.
Call to Action: Let’s Talk Trading!
Alright, traders, now it’s your move! 🚀 If you have questions, insights, or just want to discuss the setup, drop a comment below—I read everything and respond when I can. Let’s break this market down together!
🔥 Hit that Boost and save this post to check back later—watch how price respects the levels and rays in real time. Trading is all about understanding key reaction zones, and if my analysis helps you see them clearer, that’s already a win.
My ray-based strategy automatically plots all key levels based on price action and Fibonacci principles. It’s available only in Private, but if you’re interested in using it, send me a direct message, and we’ll talk.
Need analysis on another asset? No problem. Some things I post publicly, others—if you prefer—stay private. Just let me know what you’re looking for, and we’ll figure it out.
My rays work on any asset, and price moves according to them—it’s just how the market flows. If you have a specific ticker you want mapped out, Boost this post and drop it in the comments—I’ll get to it as time allows.
And don’t forget to follow me here on TradingView—this is where I post my setups, updates, and market insights. Let’s trade smart. See you in the comments! 📈🔥
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 24, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continued to strengthen against its U.S. counterpart last week and pushed the USD/JPY pair down to 149.000, its lowest level since early December, during Monday's Asian session. Japan's strong Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Friday complemented last week's encouraging Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth report. This, along with expectations that solid wage growth will drive consumer spending, suggests that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates more aggressively than originally anticipated and continues to support the Japanese Yen.
In addition, the emergence of new US Dollar (USD) selling is favorable for the JPY and has contributed to the USD/JPY pair declining for the fourth consecutive day, marking the seventh day of negative movement in the last eight. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda showed willingness to increase government bond purchases if long-term interest rates rise sharply. This in turn led to a further decline in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields from the multi-year peak reached last week, which triggered some intraday JPY selling and helped the currency pair bounce more than 50 pips from the daily low.
Trading recommendation: SELL 149.200, SL 149.800, TP 148.300
Gold's Next Move – 3000 in Sight or Deeper Correction First?🔥 Gold Market Analysis – Are We Heading for a New ATH? 🔥
📈 Extreme Bullish Momentum – But Signs of Exhaustion?
Last week, price showed strong bullish momentum, pushing to a new all-time high (ATH). However, despite this strength, we have also seen deep pullbacks, signaling that sellers are active at key levels.
🔍 Key Observations:
✅ 4H Bullish FVG (2923 - 2915) has been tested 3 times – Each time, price has bounced significantly, with one of those bounces even leading to a new ATH.
✅ Friday’s reaction off this zone suggests buyers are still defending it, but price is struggling to push up as aggressively as before.
✅ Liquidity Sweep & Strong Rejection – We swept the 4H Asia high, tapped into a 1H Bearish OB (2947 - 2940) just above the liquidity grab, and then dumped 100+ pips 📉.
🔮 Possible Scenarios Moving Forward:
📌 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation 🚀
Price could attempt to fill the 4H Bullish FVG (2923 - 2915) and then bounce back up, targeting the ATH again.
If we break above the 1H Bearish OB (2947 - 2940), it could trigger further bullishness, potentially driving price towards 3000.
📌 Scenario 2 – Deeper Pullback Before Another Push Up 🔻
If price fails to hold the 4H FVG, we could see a drop down to the 4H Bullish OB (2886 - 2877), where buyers are likely waiting.
A strong reaction from this zone could set up a higher low formation, allowing bulls to re-enter and push towards the ATH again.
💡 Final Thoughts:
The market is at a critical point, and liquidity sweeps are playing a major role in shaping price action. If we see a clean break above resistance, 3000+ could be in sight. However, failure to hold key demand zones might lead to deeper corrections before another bullish leg.
🔥 Stay patient, follow the levels, and trade smart! 🔥
GBP/JPY - Triangle Breakout (Weekly Forecast Feb 24-28)The GBP/JPY Pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 185.04
2nd Support – 182.94
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Let the games begin!!! BTC retracement in play!Double top creation after an ATH seems to be a character trait of BTC after a certain someone gets into office. Moreover, bearish reversal patterns on two higher timeframes (D-Head & Shoulder/4hr- M pattern) further solidifies the inevitable retracement that's needed before the major crypto surge that most are anticipating.
AUD/JPY 4H: Potential Reversal at Support Zone !!Price Action: The price is trading below the 200-period EMA, indicating that the general trend is bearish. However, there's a price bounce near the orange box (support zone), suggesting that a reversal could occur from this level.
Support and Resistance Zones:
The support zone is the orange box around 95.85–96.10. Price is near the lower bound of this zone, which could provide a buying opportunity if the price holds above it.
Resistance is at the higher level of around 97.55, and there's also a minor resistance around 96.70, which is likely a short-term obstacle.
EMA (200): The 200-period EMA (at 96.69) is acting as a dynamic resistance, contributing to the overall bearish bias. If price closes above it, there could be a shift in sentiment.
Potential Trade Setup: The analysis shows a possible buying opportunity if price holds above the orange box (95.85–96.10). A potential upside target would be around the 97.55 level, which aligns with previous price action resistance.
Overall, this chart is suggesting a bounce off the support zone with a possible move towards resistance. However, the trend remains bearish as long as the price stays below the 200 EMA.
EUR/JPY Bearish Setup | Rejection from 200 EMA & Supply ZoneEUR/JPY Analysis (Daily Timeframe) 📉🔥
Key Observations:
Price at 159.804 (-0.07%), showing minor bearish sentiment.
200 EMA Resistance (162.206) 🚧
Price previously rejected from this level, reinforcing it as a strong resistance zone.
Bearish Retest of Supply Zone (162.000 - 162.500) 🛑
Price attempted to break above but failed, leading to rejection and a move downward.
Breakout from Ascending Channel 📉
Price previously followed an upward trend but broke below, signaling a shift to bearish momentum.
Target at 155.732 (Next Support) 🎯
A blue arrow suggests an expected drop toward this key support.
Bias: Bearish 📉
Confirmation: If price fails to reclaim 160.500, further downside is likely.
Bearish Entry: Below 159.500 with a target at 155.732.
Invalidation: A daily close above 162.200 would shift bias to bullish.
🚨 Watch for rejection candles or strong bearish momentum for a sell setup! 🚨
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 21, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair declined after hitting a two-month high of 1.26740 on Friday and was trading near 1.26700 at the time of writing during the Asian session. However, the pair strengthened as the US Dollar (USD) struggled amid weak jobless claims data and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 219,000 in the week ended February 14, above the expected 215,000. Jobless claims also rose slightly to 1.869 million, just below the forecast of 1.87 million.
Additionally, GBP/USD rose amid improving market sentiment after US President Donald Trump signaled potential progress in trade talks with China, easing market fears over tariffs.
On Thursday, Fed chief Adriana Kugler said U.S. inflation still has “some way to go” before it reaches its 2% target, acknowledging uncertainty in the future, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem emphasized the potential risks of stagflation and rising inflation expectations. Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic left open the possibility of two rate cuts this year depending on economic conditions.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.26700, SL 1.27300, TP 1.25600
AUD/USD Triangle Breakout (19.2.25)The AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.6391
2nd Resistance – 0.6404
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GBP/JPY Triangle Pattern (14.2.25)The GBP/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 189.83
2nd Support – 188.42
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NZD/JPY - H1 Chart - Trendline Breakout (18.02.2025)The NZD/JPY Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 86.00
2nd Support – 85.60
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EUR/USD Wedge Breakout (17.2.25)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0413
2nd Support – 1.0375
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EURNZD - Buy Setup at key ZoneOANDA:EURNZD is currently in a significant support zone, which has times before been a turning point for bullish moves. The recent bearish pressure brings the price into this critical area once again, creating a potential buying opportunity.
If bullish signals emerge, such as strong buying volume or bullish candlestick patterns, I expect the price to move toward 1,83700. However, a break below this support would invalidate the bullish bias and could lead to further declines.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!
XAU/USD Technical Analysis: Testing Key Resistance at 2,935 - !!XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) – 30-Minute Timeframe Analysis
Current Market Context:
The XAU/USD pair has been in an overall bullish trend, evidenced by the price being positioned above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating the dominance of buyers in the market. However, the price action currently suggests a potential reversal or consolidation at key resistance.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: The price has approached a significant resistance area near 2,935, which has historically served as a reversal zone. The market is currently struggling to maintain bullish momentum at this level, with a recent rejection visible.
Support Zone: A clear support level can be identified around 2,920, where price has previously found buying interest. A break below this could indicate a deeper retracement towards lower levels.
Technical Indicators:
200 EMA: The price is trading above the 200 EMA, which traditionally signals an uptrend. However, the recent pullback suggests the market could be testing this level for support.
Price Action: The formation of lower wicks and the rejection at the resistance zone may suggest waning bullish momentum, which could trigger a pullback or consolidation in the short term.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation: If the price successfully breaks above the resistance zone (around 2,935), we could expect a continuation towards higher levels, targeting 2,940 or beyond. Confirmation of this move would require a strong close above the resistance with increased volume.
Bearish Reversal: Should the price fail to break above the resistance and begin to show signs of rejection (as seen with the current price action), a potential short-term bearish move could occur. The first target would likely be the support around 2,920, with a deeper retracement towards 2,915 if the market sentiment turns more risk-averse.
Conclusion:
At present, XAU/USD is at a crucial juncture. The key resistance zone at 2,935 is critical for determining the next directional move. A failure to break above this level could lead to a short-term bearish retracement, while a successful breakout would reaffirm the bullish trend. Traders should monitor for price action confirmation near these levels to assess the most probable market direction.
#EURUSD 1H Potential riseHello Traders
I see the EUR/USD bullish wave and the price has fallen in a corrective manner. I expect another bullish wave to start from here.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Bullish Rebound from Key Support!!Key Observations:
1. Support Zone & Trendline:
A support zone (marked in red) is visible, which aligns with a rising trendline. The price has tested this area and bounced upwards, suggesting demand at this level.
2. Bullish Rejection & Confirmation:
The recent price action shows rejection of lower prices within the support zone.
A bullish candle has emerged after the price tested this zone, hinting at potential upside momentum.
3. Moving Average Resistance:
The 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at 0.84058 acts as a significant resistance level.
If the price sustains above the trendline and support zone, a potential retest of the 200 EMA is likely.
4. Price Target & Direction:
The blue arrow suggests an expected bullish move.
The immediate target is around 0.8400 - 0.8450, where the 200 EMA and previous price action resistance exist.
Conclusion & Trading Plan:
Bullish Bias: As long as the price holds above the trendline and support zone, further upside is favored.
Breakout Confirmation: A daily close above 0.8350 could further confirm bullish momentum.
Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the trendline and support zone, it could trigger a bearish move toward 0.8250.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Consolidation Before Breakout?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis
Market Structure and Price Action
The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily chart exhibits a consolidation phase, with price movements constrained within a well-defined range. This range is highlighted by the blue rectangular area, indicating indecision in the market as neither buyers nor sellers have established clear dominance.
Key Technical Levels
1. Resistance Levels:
$100,000 - $103,787: Upper boundary of the consolidation zone, serving as a key resistance level. A breakout above this level could indicate renewed bullish momentum.
$108,734 - $110,266: Potential upside targets if resistance is breached.
2. Support Levels:
$96,484 - $97,065: Lower boundary of the consolidation zone, acting as short-term support. A breakdown below this level could signal increased selling pressure.
$89,533 - $84,773 (200-day EMA): Critical long-term support zone. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $84,773 serves as a major technical support level, historically acting as a strong demand zone in trending markets.
Technical Indicators and Market Outlook
200-Day EMA: The 200-day EMA at $84,773 reinforces long-term support, making it a key level to watch in case of a market correction.
Trendline Analysis: The chart indicates a previous uptrend, followed by a sideways consolidation. A breakout from this range will determine the next directional move.
Highlighted Zones:
Green-shaded areas suggest historical demand zones, indicating potential buying interest.
Orange-shaded areas represent previous supply zones, which may act as resistance in case of a price increase.
Potential Market Scenarios
1. Bullish Breakout:
A break above $103,787 could trigger a continuation of the upward trend, with potential price targets at $108,734 and $110,266.
Sustained bullish momentum may push the price towards new all-time highs beyond $120,000.
2. Bearish Breakdown:
A break below $96,000 may indicate increased selling pressure, leading to a potential decline towards $89,533 - $85,000.
If Bitcoin loses support at the 200-day EMA ($84,773), further downside momentum could materialize, leading to an extended correction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound phase, with price action indicating market indecision. A breakout above $103,787 would signal a resumption of the bullish trend, whereas a break below $96,000 could lead to further downside movement. The 200-day EMA remains a critical long-term support level, and traders should closely monitor price action around these key areas to determine the next market direction.
Crypto Total Market Cap Consolidation: Imminent Breakout Ahead?Key Observations:
1. Symmetrical Triangle Pattern:
The price is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle, with lower highs and higher lows.
A breakout in either direction is imminent.
2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA 200):
The 200-period EMA is at 3.26T, currently acting as resistance.
A breakout above this level could indicate a bullish trend continuation.
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14):
Current RSI: 49.34, slightly below the neutral 50 level.
This suggests neutral momentum, with no clear overbought/oversold signals.
A move above 55-60 could indicate increasing bullish momentum.
Potential Scenarios:
1. Bullish Breakout:
If TOTAL breaks above the triangle resistance and EMA 200, the next targets could be 3.3T - 3.5T.
Confirmation requires high volume and RSI above 55.
2. Bearish Breakdown:
A break below the triangle support could push TOTAL toward 3.0T or lower.
RSI dropping below 40 would confirm bearish momentum.
Conclusion:
The market is in a consolidation phase, awaiting a breakout. Watch for volume confirmation and EMA 200 reaction to determine the next move.
xauusd video analysis for the weekXAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) Analysis: February 17 – Febrauary 25, 2025
This analysis provides an in-depth evaluation of gold’s potential trajectory over the specified period, integrating fundamental drivers, technical indicators, and expert forecasts. Key factors influencing gold include geopolitical risks, monetary policy shifts, inflation trends, and technical patterns.
1. Fundamental Drivers
A. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Trade Tensions: The U.S. administration’s recent tariffs (e.g., 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, 10% on Chinese goods) have amplified global trade risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Middle East and China Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in China’s economy (evidenced by a decline in the Caixin PMI) are further driving investors toward gold.
B. Monetary Policy and Inflation
Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and dovish stances from the ECB and BoE are weakening fiat currencies, boosting gold prices.
Inflation Hedge: Persistent inflation, driven by tariffs and supply-chain disruptions, enhances gold’s appeal. Analysts caution that U.S. inflation could exceed targets, forcing the Fed to reverse rate cuts, which may temporarily support the USD but ultimately favor gold.
C. Central Bank Demand
Central banks, notably China’s PBOC, are accumulating gold reserves to diversify away from the USD, creating structural demand.
2. Technical Analysis
A. Short-Term Signals (February–March)
Momentum Indicators: The RSI (26.05) and Stochastic Oscillator (14.5) signal oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound.
Key Levels:
Support: $2,830 (February 10 analysis) and $2,720 (ascending channel lower boundary).
Resistance: $2,887 (immediate target) and $2,900 (psychological barrier).
2. Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: $2,880 – This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally.
Critical Support: $2,850 – Represents the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since late 2024.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $2,920 – A breach could trigger bullish momentum toward higher targets.
Key Resistance: $2,959 – The upper boundary of the channel and a major psychological level.
3. Momentum Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 62, indicating bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory.
Moving Averages (MA):
50-Day MA: Positioned at $2,910, offering dynamic support.
200-Day MA: Located at $2,780, signaling long-term strength.
Stochastic Oscillator: Signals potential upside as it exits oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart.
4. Chart Patterns and Trends
Ascending Channel: Gold continues to trade within an ascending channel, maintaining a bullish structure.
Bullish Flag Formation: On the daily chart, a bullish flag suggests a potential breakout if prices sustain above $2,920.
Candlestick Signals: Last Friday’s bullish engulfing pattern highlights strong buying interest.
5. Scenarios for the Week
Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above $2,920 could target $2,965 and $3,000.
Momentum indicators support further upside if geopolitical tensions persist.
Bearish Scenario:
A failure to hold $2,880 may lead to a decline toward $2,850.
Profit-taking or USD strength could pressure gold, particularly if U.S. economic data surprises positively.
Bullish Targets/ Resistance
2890
2906
2928
2934
2959
2972
2987
3023
Bearish/Support
2872
2857
2841
2807
2781
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 19, 2025 EURUSDU.S. President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he would likely impose tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals of about 25%, with an announcement to follow as early as 2 April.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a peace deal could not yet be concluded. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for Wednesday, until 10 March to avoid giving ‘legitimacy’ to the US-Russia talks. This uncertainty could lift the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for the pair.
Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, which are due to be released later on Wednesday. This report could provide some clues as to how policymakers assess the risk of a global trade war.
On the other side of the pond, the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index came in at 24.2 in February versus 18.0 previously, missing expectations. Rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates three more times this year could put pressure on the Euro (EUR).
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0500, TP 1.0350
