Freshpet | FRPT | Long at $63.15Freshpet's NASDAQ:FRPT future growth looks very good based on *current* estimates. The company's revenue is anticipated to grow from $1.18B–$1.21B in 2025 to ~$1.9B by 2028, implying an annual growth rate of ~13–17%. NASDAQ:FRPT targets a 22% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2027, with adjusted EBITDA expected at $190M–$210M in 2025. The stock is definitely not "cheap" right now with a price-to-earnings of 92x. However, the growth projections look solid if they can maintain the pace of growth through a tumultuous economy - the pet market is wildly resilient.
Since February 2025, insiders have grabbed over $931,764 in shares at an average price of $100.93. The only open price gap below the current price was a closed yesterday. A blaring price gap between $124-$128 is likely to be closed - just a matter of when. With very low debt (debt-to-earnings of 0.5x), Quick Ratio over 3 (heathy), and Altman's Z-score of 3+ (low bankruptcy risk), the company appears extremely healthy. I think there is a chance the price could reach into the high $40's and $50's in the near-term, but long term... if the projections are correct... the company looks poised from major profit.
Thus, at $63.15, NASDAQ:FRPT is in a personal buy zone with near-term risk of a drop into the high $40s and $50s.
Targets into 2028:
$90.00 (+42.5%)
$125.00 (+ 97.9%)
