Oxford Industries | OXM | Long at $38.10Oxford Industries NYSE:OXM is an apparel company that designs, sources, markets, and distributes lifestyle brands like Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and Southern Tide. While I am not super bullish on the retail sector given the blaring recession signals, I also don't think this is the end of life as we know it... the anticipated downside is already priced-in for many retail brands.
From a technical analysis perspective, NYSE:OXM has entered my "crash" simple moving average zone. Typically, but not always, this is an area where value investors accumulate shares in anticipation of a future rise in share price. While the price is likely to dip near $28-$30 in the near-term, the last open price gap on the daily chart since the COVID-19 pandemic was closed today. Also, last week, an NYSE:OXM Officer and the CEO bought just over $600,000 in shares near $40 and the stock is currently trading at book value.
Fundamentals:
P/E = 7.4x (apparel sector average = 22.4x)
Forward P/E = 11.4x
Dividend = 7.25%
Debt-to-equity = .2x (healthy)
Regardless of some strong fundamentals, persistent macro volatility, consumer caution, and tariff pressures may delay recovery. Analysts expect flat to declining sales in 2025, with limited organic growth. Like I mentioned above, while there is likely short-term pain here, the fundamentals are there to potentially weather the storm.
Thus, at $38.10, NYSE:OXM is in a personal buy zone with the further decline between $28-$30 likely (where additional share accumulation will occur as long as the fundamentals do not change).
Targets into 2027
$45.00 (+18.0%)
$50.00 (+31.2%)
