APLD (Applied Digital):EARNINGS TRADE SETUP (2025-07-30)
🚨 **EARNINGS TRADE SETUP: APLD (Applied Digital)**
🗓️ Earnings: **July 31 (AMC)**
💥 Confidence: **65% Moderate Bullish**
🔥 Recent Run: **+94% past 3 months**
🧠 AI Infrastructure Hype + High IV = Opportunity
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### 📊 FUNDAMENTALS SNAPSHOT
🟢 **Revenue Growth**: +22.1% YoY
🔴 **Profit Margin**: -110.4%
🔴 **Operating Margin**: -34.7%
⚠️ Historical EPS Beat Rate: **12% only**
📈 Analyst Target: **\$14.61** (+42.8% upside)
🔎 **Verdict**: High growth, deep losses — speculative with upside
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### 🧠 OPTIONS FLOW
💣 **High IV Crush Risk**
🟥 **Put Wall**: \$10.00 (6,700 contracts)
🟩 **Speculative Calls**: \$10.50 & \$11.00 loaded
⚖️ Mixed Sentiment → Tilted Bullish
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### 📉 TECHNICAL CHECK
💹 Price: **\$10.12**
📉 Below 20D MA (\$10.31)
📌 Support: **\$10.00**
📌 Resistance: **\$10.50**
⚠️ RSI Cooling → Watch for breakout or rejection
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### 💥 TRADE IDEA
**🎯 Call Option — Strike \$10.50 — Exp 08/01**
💵 Entry: \$0.57
🚀 Profit Target: \$2.28 (200–400% ROI zone)
🛑 Stop Loss: \$0.285
📈 Size: 1 contract (2% of portfolio)
🕓 Exit: 1–2 hours post earnings to avoid IV crush
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### 🧠 TRADE LOGIC
Risky setup — but technicals + AI narrative + speculative flow = **earnings lotto ticket with strategy.**
💬 *"Speculation with structure beats blind YOLO."*
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📌 Tag a trader who likes calculated risk 📈
📉 Don’t forget to scale OUT, not just IN.
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