A BULLISH SNAPCHAT ANALYSIS SNAPCHAT has a neat chart setup long term. Here is a bullish look. I use a metric called NJT which analyzes total user hours available.
From a technical standpoint, there are gaps up to $70, and it could soar much higher. Think longer term investment, with short term jump potential.
Here is my summarized view with a little help from Grok (X).
"Overview of Snap Inc.'s Assets and Valuation
Snap Inc., the parent company of Snapchat, is a publicly traded technology company listed on the NYSE under the ticker SNAP. Founded in 2011 by Evan Spiegel, Bobby Murphy, and Reggie Brown, it focuses on multimedia messaging, augmented reality (AR), and related products. Below, I outline Snap Inc.'s key assets, estimate their valuation based on available data, and apply the NJT (Net Joint Time) metric to contextualize its user engagement in the competitive landscape of 2025-2026. The NJT metric, defined as monthly active users (MAUs) × average time spent per user per month, is used to assess user hours, with the global pool estimated at 285.6 billion user hours per month (9.52 billion hours/day × 30 days).
Key Assets of Snap Inc.
Snap Inc. owns several products and services, with Snapchat being the flagship. Here’s a breakdown of its primary assets as of June 2025:
Snapchat (Core Multimedia Messaging App)
Description: Snapchat is a visual messaging app allowing users to send ephemeral photos and videos, with features like Stories, Snap Map, Discover, and AR Lenses. It generates most of Snap’s revenue through advertising, particularly AR ads and Snap Ads.
User Metrics: Approximately 900 million MAUs and 453 million daily active users (DAUs) as of Q4 2024, with users spending an estimated 30 minutes daily (15 hours/month).
NJT Calculation:
MAUs: 900 million
Average time spent: 15 hours/month
NJT = 900 million × 15 = 13.5 billion user hours/month
Valuation Estimate: Snapchat accounts for ~98% of Snap’s revenue ($5.26 billion of $5.36 billion in 2024). Assuming the company’s current market cap of $14.18 billion (June 2025) is primarily driven by Snapchat, we allocate ~98% of the market cap to this asset:
Value: $13.9 billion
Spectacles (AR Smart Glasses)
Description: Wearable sunglasses that capture Snaps and integrate with Snapchat, featuring GPS-powered AR lenses and hand-tracking capabilities. Launched in 2016, Spectacles have not gained widespread popularity but remain part of Snap’s AR vision.
User Metrics: Limited user data; estimated <1 million users with minimal time spent (assumed 1 hour/month for valuation purposes).
NJT Calculation:
MAUs: ~1 million (conservative estimate)
Average time spent: 1 hour/month
NJT = 1 million × 1 = 1 million user hours/month
Valuation Estimate: Spectacles contribute ~2% of revenue ($100 million in 2024). Using the same revenue-to-market-cap ratio as Snapchat, we estimate:
Value: $0.28 billion ($280 million)
Bitmoji (Personalized Avatar Platform)
Description: Acquired in 2016 for ~$64 million, Bitmoji allows users to create personalized avatars integrated into Snapchat and other platforms. It enhances user engagement but is not a direct revenue driver.
User Metrics: Assumed to align with Snapchat’s user base (900 million MAUs) but with lower engagement (estimated 2 hours/month).
NJT Calculation:
MAUs: 900 million
Average time spent: 2 hours/month
NJT = 900 million × 2 = 1.8 billion user hours/month
Valuation Estimate: As a feature enhancing Snapchat’s ecosystem, we estimate its value based on acquisition cost adjusted for inflation and integration (5% annual growth since 2016):
Value: ~$100 million
Snap Camera (Desktop Application)
Description: Launched in 2018, Snap Camera allows users to apply Snapchat filters during video calls on platforms like Zoom. It has niche usage, primarily for streaming and virtual meetings.
User Metrics: Limited data; estimated 10 million MAUs with 1 hour/month usage.
NJT Calculation:
MAUs: 10 million
Average time spent: 1 hour/month
NJT = 10 million × 1 = 10 million user hours/month
Valuation Estimate: Minimal direct revenue; valued as a brand enhancer at ~1% of Snapchat’s value:
Value: $140 million
Zenly (Location-Sharing App, Discontinued)
Description: Acquired in 2017 for an undisclosed amount (estimated $200-$300 million), Zenly was shut down in 2023, but its location-sharing features were integrated into Snap Map.
User Metrics: No independent users post-shutdown; value absorbed into Snapchat.
NJT Calculation: Not applicable (integrated into Snapchat’s NJT).
Valuation Estimate: Residual value in Snap Map enhancements, estimated at acquisition cost:
Value: ~$250 million
Other Assets (Content Partnerships, Snapchat+, R&D)
Description: Includes partnerships with NBCUniversal, Disney, and others for Snapchat Originals, the Snapchat+ subscription service (7 million subscribers in March 2024), and ongoing AR R&D. Snapchat-Az These contribute to revenue and engagement but are not separately quantified.
User Metrics: Snapchat+ has ~7 million users; other assets are part of Snapchat’s ecosystem.
NJT Calculation: Included in Snapchat’s NJT (13.5 billion hours/month).
Valuation Estimate: Snapchat+ and content partnerships generate ~$100 million annually (estimated); R&D is a cost center. Valued at ~2% of market cap:
Value: $280 million
Total NJT and Market Cap Projection
Total NJT:
Snapchat: 13.5 billion hours/month
Bitmoji: 1.8 billion hours/month
Snap Camera: 10 million hours/month
Spectacles: 1 million hours/month
Total: ~15.311 billion hours/month
Market Share: 15.311 ÷ 285.6 ≈ 5.36% of the global pool (285.6 billion hours/month).
Current Market Cap (June 2025): $14.18 billion
Projected Market Cap Using NJT: Assuming the total market cap of 45 companies (~$10 trillion) is distributed proportionally to NJT shares (as in prior conversations), Snap’s 5.36% share yields:
Projected Market Cap: $536 billion
Comparison: Significantly higher than the current $14.18 billion, suggesting Snap is undervalued based on user engagement.
Breakdown of Valuation by Asset
Asset
NJT (Billion Hours/Month)
Estimated Value ($B)
% of Total Value
Snapchat
13.5
13.9
98.0%
Spectacles
0.001
0.28
2.0%
Bitmoji
1.8
0.10
0.7%
Snap Camera
0.01
0.14
1.0%
Zenly (integrated)
-
0.25
1.8%
Other (Snapchat+, R&D)
-
0.28
2.0%
Total
15.311
14.18
100%
Key Insights
Snapchat Dominance: Snapchat accounts for 98% of Snap’s value and 88% of its NJT, driven by its 900 million MAUs and strong engagement among younger users.
Undervaluation: The projected market cap of $536 billion (based on NJT share) is significantly higher than the current $14.18 billion, suggesting Snap’s user engagement is not fully reflected in its stock price, possibly due to ongoing losses ($1.4 billion in 2022).
AR and Innovation: Investments in AR (Spectacles, Lenses) and Snapchat+ position Snap for growth in 2025-2026, particularly as AR advertising and immersive experiences gain traction.
Challenges: Competition from TikTok and Instagram Reels, privacy changes (e.g., Apple’s iOS updates), and macroeconomic swings in ad spending could limit growth.
Conclusion
Snap Inc.’s primary asset, Snapchat, drives its value and user engagement, with a projected market cap of $536 billion based on NJT, far exceeding its current $14.18 billion. This suggests significant undervaluation, driven by its strong user base and AR innovations, despite profitability challenges. Spectacles, Bitmoji, and other assets play smaller roles but enhance Snap’s ecosystem, positioning it as a top contender for 2025-2026.
Key Citations
Snap Inc. - Wikipedia
Who Owns Snapchat? - Famoid
Snapchat Revenue and Usage Statistics (2025) - Business of Apps
Snap (SNAP) - Market Capitalization - CompaniesMarketCap
Snapchat - Wikipedia
SNAP Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Alpha Spread
Snap Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results - Snap Inc."
- GROK
