Get started

Beyond Technical Analysis

DOW/US30 - PATIENLY WAITING FOR THE ENTRY - DO NOT RUSHTeam, we are already entry LONG NAS100 EARLIER. But with the DOW, be patience - waiting for 42000-419600 - will be our first entry ranges Then if market continue to fall further - this is our back up entry at 41480-41220 - DOUBLE UP to kill the market OK, i did follow Israel and Iran story I have spent 4-6 hours research and analyzing the market. I prefer to carefully entry the market. I want to ensure my continue winning. Sometimes if it not in the trading setup - DO NOT TRADE.. that part of the risk management Check out my new video how I did not lose a single trade last 90 days A lot of videos NEVER show their history trade, always show win this win that.. but no show the statement or data. But I provide real account, real data. Look forward to provide you more trades in coming.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by ActiveTraderRoom
NAS - TIME TO MAKE ACTIVE TRADER ROOM GREATER AGAIN!Team, last week we got a good entry on both DOW/US30 AND NAS100/TEC100 Yes, i do know about the situation with ISRAEL AND IRAN. This will drag on for at least 3-6 months for the solutions however, I expect the cease fire should be stop within next week as President Trump's is negotiation with Iran There are two strategy to trade for the NAS- NASTY market Rule: make sure you calculate how much position and volume you are taking risk on the trade. Every time you enter, ensure you are understood each trade risk. As I always do. The last 90 days we have not losing a single trade - check my new video release soon. OK, lets get back to the trade set up again entry small volume at market now. If market falling down during US session, buy more at the second setting However, I expect the 1st setting likely to recover soon. Jump on board now. See you to the moon
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by ActiveTraderRoom
SPOT Weekly Options Trade — June 15, 2025🎧 SPOT Weekly Options Trade — June 15, 2025 💡 Ticker: SPOT 🎯 Strategy: Bullish Swing — Call Option 📅 Expiry: June 20, 2025 ⏱ Entry Timing: Market Open 📈 Confidence: 70% 🔍 Analysis Summary All four models (Grok, Llama, Gemini, DeepSeek) indicate strong bullish momentum on SPOT based on: ✅ Above all key EMAs (5-min and daily) 🔁 Bullish RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Band alignment 📢 Catalyst: Evercore ISI upgrade to $750 📊 Notable call open interest in OTM strikes ⚠️ Max Pain: $665 — a known drag, but outweighed short-term by momentum and the upgrade catalyst. ✅ Recommended Trade 🛒 Trade Type: Long CALL (Naked) 🎯 Strike: $740 💵 Entry Price: ~$4.25 📅 Expiry: June 20, 2025 (Weekly) 📈 Profit Target: ~$8.50 (100% gain) 🛑 Stop Loss: ~$2.10 (50% loss) 🔍 Why $740? It's the sweet spot between DeepSeek’s speculative $780 and Grok's expensive $725—offering leverage with decent odds. ⚠️ Risks & Watchouts 🧲 Max Pain gravity at $665 — may cap gains closer to expiry 📉 Rejection at $714–$718 resistance range 🌪 Elevated VIX = potential for wide intraday swings 📏 Stick to small sizing (risking <2% of portfolio) due to premium volatility 🎯 Bottom Line: Strong bullish setup, solid catalyst, and technicals support a move higher. Enter on strength near open, manage tightly, and take profits on a double.
NYSE:SPOTLong
by quantsignals
DASH Weekly Options Trade — June 15, 2025📈 DASH Weekly Options Trade — June 15, 2025 💡 Ticker: DASH 🎯 Strategy: Bullish Swing — Call Option 📅 Expiry: June 20, 2025 ⏱ Entry Timing: Market Open (only if breakout confirmed) 📈 Confidence: 70% 🔍 Analysis Summary All four models (Grok, Llama, Gemini, DeepSeek) point to short-term bullish momentum with DASH currently trading: 🔼 Above key EMAs on the 5-min and daily charts 🧭 MACD & RSI in bullish alignment 💬 Supported by strong volume and market sentiment While there is caution due to overbought RSI and a wide gap between price and max pain ($187.50), the models favor a breakout scenario if DASH clears resistance at $219–$220. ✅ Trade Recommendation 🛒 Trade Type: Long CALL (Naked) 🎯 Strike: $230.00 💵 Entry Price: ~$0.67 📅 Expiration: June 20, 2025 (weekly) 📈 Profit Target: ~$1.34 (100% gain) 🛑 Stop Loss: ~$0.33 (50% loss) 🔎 Entry Note: Only enter if price confirms breakout above $219–$220 zone at open 🧠 Key Risks to Monitor ❗ Overbought signals could lead to a pullback before continuation ⚖️ Max pain at $187.50 may pressure price toward expiration 📉 Avoid entry if DASH fails to hold above $219 at open 🔄 Wider bid/ask spreads due to volatility—manage slippage carefully 🚨 Watchlist Trade: This setup is conditional. Enter only on breakout confirmation above $220. Let’s see if DASH delivers another leg up—or stalls at resistance.
NASDAQ:DASHLong
by quantsignals
$SPY – Bearish Momentum Meets Spiral Timing🌀 AMEX:SPY – Spiral Timing, Macro Tension, and Bearish Momentum Brewing Not financial advice. Short-term sentiment shifted bearish. I’ve been tracking AMEX:SPY using both Fibonacci retracements and Fib spirals across the daily and weekly timeframes, and we’re now at a critical inflection zone. My sentiment has shifted more cautiously bearish in the short term, while acknowledging upside remains intact on the longer timeframes. 🔍 Macro Backdrop: Pressure Building CPI Data (May) came in at 2.4%, slightly higher than April’s 2.3%, but still below forecast — showing inflation is sticky but not accelerating. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran flared again over the weekend, adding risk-off pressure to already fragile sentiment. Market volatility remains high, with trillions of dollars swinging across a narrow window — validating shorter Fib cycles and accelerated price exhaustion. 🧭 Daily Chart Analysis: December 2024 High → April 2025 Low I used a bearish Fib retracement from the December 2024 highs to the April 2025 lows. SPY has now retraced nearly 100% of that drop, currently hovering between the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement levels — which often act as exhaustion zones in corrective rallies. The Fib spiral from the April low shows we’ve lost the initial vertical trendline that marked the recovery leg — a shift in momentum tone. MACD has remained flat for 16 sessions, with a bearish divergence confirmed on Friday (6/13/25). Momentum, which briefly turned positive on Thursday, flipped sharply back negative by week’s end. 📆 Weekly Chart Structure: March 2020 → Feb 2025 The weekly spiral, drawn from the March 2020 low to the February 2025 high, reflects a similar pattern: → Price is moving beyond the arc and approaching the vertical time marker, a zone where reversals or expansions often occur. Long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term action suggests compression ahead of a possible pullback. 🔥 Spiral Interpretation Reminder: The Fib spiral doesn’t predict direction — it identifies time-based pressure points. When price crosses the arc or vertical band, volatility often follows. 🎯 Key Trade Levels: Breakdown Watch: → Close below $595, then $587 could trigger downside toward $560 (0.618) and $545 (0.5) levels from the retracement Breakout Watch: → A confirmed breakout above $609 (full retrace from the Fib) would invalidate the short-term bear thesis and resume bullish continuation 🤔 Positioning Outlook: I’m tactically bearish here. The technicals show: Momentum divergence Fib exhaustion Spiral confluence Macro pressure mounting I don’t think the long-term trend is broken — but we’re entering a time window for volatility, and that often brings opportunity on both sides. Short setups may offer better risk/reward right now if we see confirmation. Would love to hear your bias here — bear trap brewing or topping process?
AMEX:SPYShort
by Spaceforcex
EL (Estée Lauder) Swing Trade Setup — June 15, 2025🔻 EL (Estée Lauder) Swing Trade Setup — June 15, 2025 💡 Ticker: EL 📉 Setup Type: Bearish Swing — Weekly PUT 📅 Expiry: June 20, 2025 ⏱ Entry Timing: At Market Open 💬 Confidence: 70% 🧠 Model Insights & Technical Context Across the board, our four AI models (Grok, Llama, DeepSeek, Gemini) provide the following signals: ✅ Short-Term Weakness: Price is below all key EMAs (5-min and daily charts). RSI is low (~30), near oversold but not reversing yet. MACD is bearish and gaining downward momentum. ✅ Options Sentiment: Very heavy put open interest at the $65 strike (4,935 contracts). Max pain at $70 suggests potential price drag upward, but not immediate. ⚠️ Risk Flags: Oversold conditions might cause a short-term bounce. Gemini model recommends a $70 call if price holds support at open. News risk remains (e.g., the death of Leonard Lauder) and volatility is rising (VIX ↑). ✅ Recommended Trade 💼 Strategy: Naked PUT (short bias) 🎯 Strike: $65.00 🕰 Entry Price (Limit): ~$0.65 🎯 Profit Target: ~$0.97 (≈+50%) 🛑 Stop Loss: ~$0.33 (≈–50%) 📆 Expiration: June 20, 2025 📈 Confidence Level: 70% This setup reflects the dominant bearish view with strong technical momentum and favorable OI at the $65 strike. The trade benefits from liquidity and an attractive risk/reward skew. 🔍 Key Considerations ⚠️ If EL bounces sharply at open and holds above ~$67.30, the Gemini model’s call trade may activate. Monitor early action closely. 📊 News risk and market volatility may distort option pricing. Manage size and slippage carefully. 📉 If price reverses and breaks above $68.50, bearish thesis is invalidated. 💬 What’s your move on EL this week? Bearish into expiration or expecting a mean-reversion bounce? Drop your thoughts 👇 or follow along in the QS trading room.
NYSE:ELShort
by quantsignals
IONQ Swing Trade Alert – Bearish Setup Confirmed (June 15, 2025🐻 IONQ Swing Trade Alert – Bearish Setup Confirmed (June 15, 2025) 📉 Current Price: ~$37.84 📅 Expiry: June 27, 2025 | ⏱ Entry Timing: Market Open 📈 Trade Type: Bearish Swing via Naked PUT 🔍 Market Context & Technical Picture All four AI models (Grok, Llama, Gemini, DeepSeek) agree: IONQ is in a short-term bearish phase, supported by clear technical breakdowns across the 15-minute and daily charts. While weekly trends remain bullish, immediate price action points lower: 📉 Price < EMAs on M15 and Daily 📉 Bearish MACD and weak RSI (low 30s) 📊 Rising VIX (~20.82) supports market-wide caution 🧲 Max pain at $39.00 = upside gravity, but unlikely to reverse trend in short term 🔻 Support zones: $36.00 – $35.50 range ✅ Trade Setup 💼 Strategy: Naked PUT 🔻 Strike: $37.00 🎯 Entry Price: ~$2.09 (mid of bid/ask: $1.94 / $2.24) 📊 Target: $3.14 (+50%) 🛑 Stop: $1.46 (–30%) 📆 Expiry: June 27, 2025 📈 Confidence: 75% 📉 Why This Trade? ✔ Consensus bearish across models ✔ Strong downside momentum on intraday/daily charts ✔ Option has decent liquidity (243 OI) ✔ Strike sits just under current price with tight R:R control ✔ Sector weakness and volatility support continuation ⚠️ Key Risks 🪫 Short-term RSI is oversold → minor bounce possible 💥 A sharp reversal above $39.50 invalidates the bearish thesis 📉 Wide spreads or poor fills → enter carefully at open 🎢 Rapid volatility spikes may distort option pricing 💬 Traders—What’s your read on IONQ? Do you see it cracking $36 or rebounding from oversold? Comment below 👇 or join the QS community for daily AI-generated signals.
NYSE:IONQShort
by quantsignals
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFFTVC:GOLD Weekly Outlook: Spot ended Friday with bullish momentum, primarily driven by a Risk OFF sentiment in financial markets due to the Israel-Iran conflict, we also had fundamentals like CPI & PPI, US-China talk during the week which supported the bullish momentum. With escalations over the weekend, Israel has continued its attack on key military and nuclear facilities as well as Oil Infrastructure including Iran's South Pars gas field, these escalations could lead to more safe heaven inflows and a RISK OFF sentiment when market opens, which could point to higher targets of 3450-3500, above 3430, the next resistance is 3500, which with such instability can easily be broken through. However Iran has communicated to the US that if Israel stops their attacks, they will also consider the same, Trump has drawn a red line and said they will not get involved unless American Lives are directly targeted, this is in spite of Israel requesting them to join the war multiple times as Israel does not have the equipment and armaments to complete the job. Trump wants them to make a deal and become the hero that accomplished it, this remains to be seen , but if talks do happen, expect a Risk ON environment where a drop below 3450 will find support/ bounce at 3350, 3304 and below that opens the floor to 3275 and below. We also have Monetary Policy this week with Pappa Powell speaking mid week, I believe rates will stay the same, with cautious Fed Policy, No rate change in June with inflation fears due to Tariffs. As always risk management should be No 1, combined with Tech and Funda knowledge, Trade Safe, this week will be very interesting. The next down move on Gold will depend on whether we get de-escalation headlines and if so then RISK ON with money moving into Risk Assets like the Stock Markets
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JOHNDOUGHFX
Macro Analysis (GBP/USD)Likely aiming for 1.42491 and 1.43886 as potential targets. There's also a possibility of a bounce near 1.17610 in the future. The yearly timeframe failed at 1.05200 back in 2022, suggesting we're sitting at the bottom of the range. Quick analysis — Despite all the social and political controversy in the UK, the macro chart clearly shows a long-term downtrend. Until price closes strongly above 1.43886, that's when this pair might have a chance vs the US dollar. (1.72062 for some stronger confidence lol) That said, the past five monthly candles have all been green, showing some momentum and short to mid-term strength. Could easily just be a pullback before continuing lower, breaking below 1.05200, which honestly, wouldn’t surprise me. But hey, let’s keep it to the charts. WOMEN lie, men lie, but numbers don’t. And this is all just numbers printed in a chart.
by ChiProactive
AUD_JPY MOVE DOWN AHEAD|SHORT| ✅AUD_JPY made a retest of The strong horizontal resistance of 93.900 Level of 106.083 and as you Can see the pair is already Making a local pullback from The level which sends a clear Bearish signal to us therefore We will be expecting a Further bearish correction SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ 

 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by ProSignalsFx
1
Beyond the Headlines - Gold Outlook June 16-20, 2025Beyond the Headlines: Gold's Ascent Amidst Global Shifts & Key Technicals 🌐🚀 Everything about the last week can be found here: OANDA:XAUUSD 💰📈 We all know what's going on, I believe. Israel struck Iran 💥, and this conflict will likely take a bit before things cool down. 🥶 --- ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 ### Israel / Iran Since June 12, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Esfahan – over 128 killed, Iran claims. 🇮🇷 retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Haifa and Tel Aviv, killing at least 10. 🚀 **Outlook:** 🔥 Tensions are spiraling. Without urgent mediation, full-scale regional war remains a real risk. 💣 ### India / Pakistan Since the May ceasefire, few clashes have occurred. However, both navies increased readiness, signaling potential escalation at sea. 🚢 **Outlook:** ⚖️ Peace is fragile. A strategic dialogue is key to avoiding a renewed border or maritime conflict. 🙏 ### Gaza Conflict Between June 7–15, Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians, including 8 near an aid center in Rafah. Over 55,000 total deaths, and famine is looming. 💔 **Outlook:** 🆘 Gaza remains a humanitarian catastrophe. Global pressure for access and a ceasefire must intensify. 🕊️ ### Russia / Ukraine June 13–15: Russia returned the bodies of 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers in a rare POW swap gesture. 🤝 Fighting remains intense in Sumy and Toretsk; Russia hit a major oil refinery. 🏭 **Outlook:** 🕊️ While symbolic moves continue, no peace is in sight – battlefield outcomes will shape diplomacy. ⚔️ ### U.S. - China Trade War The U.S. hiked tariffs to 55% on key Chinese goods. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 responded with 10% on U.S. imports. Talks yielded a partial truce, but military-use rare earths remain unresolved. 💻 **Outlook:** 🔧 Tech remains the battleground. Without progress on critical materials, the trade war may deepen. 📉 ### Global Trade War The OECD revised global growth downward due to rising tariffs from the U.S. targeting 🇨🇳, 🇲🇽, 🇨🇦. Global trade volume is expected to shrink by 0.2–1.5%. 📉 **Outlook:** ⛓️ Supply chain disruption is spreading. Global trade will stay under pressure without coordinated policy. 🌍➡️🌍 ### Trump vs. Powell Trump labeled Powell a "numbskull" for not cutting rates, suggesting he might "force something" if re-elected. 🗳️ The Fed maintains policy independence ahead of a critical June decision. 🏛️ **Outlook:** ⚔️ Political pressure on the Fed is mounting. Expect more friction as the election cycle heats up. 🔥 ### U.S. Inflation CPI rose 2.4% YoY in May (from 2.3%); Core CPI held steady at 2.8%. Monthly growth was modest at 0.1%. Key rises were seen in healthcare and vehicle prices. 🚗🏥 **Outlook:** Inflation is stable but sticky. 🚦 The Fed will likely hold rates steady until clearer disinflation signals appear. 📊 --- ## Technical View 📐📈 ### Market Structure: Gold shows a clear **bullish market structure** with higher highs and higher lows. ⬆️ Recent price action suggests we're in a strong uptrend with institutional buying pressure. 🏦 ### Key Levels: * The chart shows a significant low around the **$3,245 area** (marked as "Low") which could act as a key institutional support level. 💪 * The current high near **$3,446** represents a potential institutional resistance zone. 🛑 * Look for potential **order blocks** around the **$3,380-$3,400 range** where price consolidated before the recent breakout. 🧱 ### Fair Value Gaps (FVG): There appear to be several gaps in the price action during volatile moves, particularly during strong rally phases. These could act as future support/resistance areas. 📉📈 ### Gann Analysis: The price movement shows strong adherence to Gann principles: * The rally from the low follows a steep angle, suggesting strong momentum. 🚀 * Key Gann angles would place support around the **$3,300-$3,320 zone**. 📐 * The current price near **$3,436** is testing natural resistance levels based on Gann square calculations. 📏 ### Fibonacci Levels: From the significant swing low to the current high: * 23.6% retracement: ~$3,395 📉 * 38.2% retracement: ~$3,370 📉 * 50% retracement: ~$3,345 📉 * 61.8% retracement: ~$3,320 📉 The golden ratio levels suggest key support on any pullback would be around the **$3,370-$3,345 zone**. ✨ ### Institutional Levels: * **Weekly/Monthly Levels:** The **$3,400** and **$3,450** areas appear to be significant institutional levels based on round numbers and previous price action. 🏦💰 * **Smart Money:** The accumulation pattern before the breakout suggests institutional participation. 🧠💡 ### Cycle Timing: Based on the timeframe (appears to be 30-minute bars from May 26-June 15): * We're seeing approximately **3-week cycles** in the major moves. 🗓️ * The current rally phase appears to be in its mature stage. 🌳 * The next potential cycle turn could be approaching, suggesting caution for new longs at current levels. ⚠️ --- ### Trading Considerations: * Watch for rejection at current levels near **$3,446**. 📉 * Key support confluence around **$3,370-$3,345** for potential re-entry. 🎯 * Volume and momentum divergences would be critical for timing any reversal. 📊🔄 Other indicators tend to show bullish scenario enhancements. 🚀 Gold has formed a ** Standard Bullish Flag pattern ** over a time from early April till today. 🚩🐂 Also, the structure of a ** reverse Head & Shoulders ** is existing and has broken the neckline! 🔄🗣️ Another indicator is an existing "** Ascending Bull Flag **." ⬆️🚩 Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wick-Sniper
2
DXY is turning BULLISH,I'm buying at market open, you should tooTechnically, DXY should retrace from here, range for sometimes, take out liquidity and then continue higher. My DXY post this year has a 99% accuracy. Dont take it lightly. Now, Dxy had been following a downward trendline since the beginning of this year and I'm seeing a break out soon. Conservative traders can wait for a break and retest but I'm fairly sure we will get it. Enter and add more as the move goes in your favour, stop wasting pips. Dont hold this trade and make only 1k. Add more, compound, not when in loss but when in gain. This will change the game for you. This means that you should be looking for sell on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD et al. Ya gaziere unu TP1 @ 99.4 TP2 @ 100.5
TVC:DXYLong
by UGBOR
1
Buy the Dip into 0.0070 Pre-Expiry Pin & Policy RiskThe Japanese yen has experienced significant swings in recent weeks, both higher and lower, reflecting a fragile balance between diverging monetary policies and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. That said, its status as a safe-haven currency continues to offer it defensive appeal among global investors, independent of technical flows, such as the major USD/JPY option expiry scheduled for Monday, June 16. Fundamental Analysis Central banks have entered a wait-and-see mode. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming June 18 meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets price in a 97% probability of no change, with only a 3% chance of an immediate cut. In this context, the USD still benefits from rate differentials, but forward guidance is now increasingly balanced over the next 6 months. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has started to normalize its ultra-loose policy. After decades of zero or negative interest rates, the BoJ raised its policy rate to 0.50% in January 2025. Although no hike is expected on June 17, the central bank has signaled vigilance toward imported inflation and yen depreciation. As a result, the USD/JPY interest rate gap remains wide but is gradually narrowing. On the geopolitical front, Israel’s recent airstrike on Iranian strategic sites has lifted energy prices and reignited risk aversion. The VIX briefly jumped around 22, before retreating to 20. Historically, such uncertainty tends to benefit the yen, as risk-averse capital flows gravitate toward defensive assets. Technical Analysis The Japanese currency has gained over 8% year-to-date, with spot USD/JPY retreating to a low of 140 in April. This level corresponds to 0.007263 on the 6JU2025 futures contract. We now shift focus to the September contract, with the March expiry settling this Monday. After the volatility spike mostly driven by US tariffs (which pushed the VIX above 50 for the first time since the pandemic), risk conditions have stabilized. The yen has since consolidated within a well-defined range with stable volumes. In late May, buyers stepped in aggressively around 0.00692, leading to a sharp rebound to 0.00710. Price action has now stabilized near 0.00700, inside a pivot zone that acts both as equilibrium and a tactical entry area. These dynamics suggest a buy-on-dip strategy may offer strong asymmetry. If price returns to the 0.00692–0.00700 area, the trade setup remains valid. However, a clean daily break below 0.00691 would invalidate the bullish view and suggest a return to a broader sideways range. Sentiment Analysis According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report, asset managers remain net long the yen, reflecting a structurally bullish bias. These positions are consistent with macro/geopolitical hedging strategies, and reflect growing expectations that the policy rate differential between the Fed and the BoJ may gradually narrow. On the retail side, positioning is surprisingly neutral on USD/JPY, a rare condition for a pair often dominated by consensus directional trades. This suggests that retail traders are in a wait-and-see mode, likely due to the policy event risk ahead. Options Analysis – The $7 Billion USD/JPY 145.00 Magnet A massive $7+ billion USD/JPY option position at the 145.00 strike is due to expire Monday, June 16, at the 10am NY cut. This level currently acts as a gravitational anchor on spot price action, keeping USD/JPY within a tight range near 145. Market makers are likely adjusting hedges as expiry approaches, suppressing volatility in the short term. This has also indirectly stabilized the 6JU2025 contract in the 0.00700–0.00705 range. Once the strike expires, we may see a volatility release and potentially a new trend emerge, depending on the Fed-BoJ policy tone. Trade Idea – Buy on Dip Around 0.00700 Strategy: Buy the pullback ahead of expiry and potential breakout • Entry target: Buy at 0.0070000 (tactical dip zone) • Stop-loss: 0.0069100 (below the May 29 rejection low) • Take-Profit 1: 0.0071000 (recent resistance) • Take-Profit 2: 0.0072500 (near YTD highs) Rationale: Geopolitical risk and Fed-BoJ policy events support safe-haven flows • Technically clean reaction from 0.00692 suggests strong buying interest • Option expiry-induced pin near spot 145 could offer a lower entry window • COT positioning supports a bullish JPY view • Attractive risk-reward setup with tight stop This setup allows traders to take advantage of a volatility compression regime due to options expiry before potential breakout catalysts next week, with well-defined risk. The 6JU2025 contract is currently resting in a strategic equilibrium zone near 0.00700. Macro fundamentals and speculative positioning both argue in favor of yen stabilization or modest appreciation. The expiry of the $7B option on Monday, followed by central bank events midweek, could unleash a directional move. Until then, a dip-buying strategy near 0.0070 appears compelling, as long as the 0.00691 support holds on a daily closing basis. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/. This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6JU2025Long
by satelysfx
7
Turbulent Week Ahead? Gold Outlook June 9-13, 2025Hey fellow traders, Let's dive into the OANDA:XAUUSD outlook for the upcoming week, June 9-13, 2025. The recent price action has been a rollercoaster 🎢, and the next few days promise even more fireworks 🎇. Looking back at the 30-minute chart from May 22 to June 6, gold saw an initial consolidation, then a strong rally to multi-week highs near 3,420. However, this was followed by a sharp, dramatic reversal, pushing prices back below 3,300. This "bull trap" 🐂 pattern suggests underlying weakness and potential preemptive market positioning. Another view on this could be the possibility that a gap on the chart at 3300-3295 of around $5 could get closed. Since strong support is right below this, it could serve as a good launchpad 🚀 for an upward rally. Let's see if the upcoming Asia session on Monday triggers this because its only - $14 from $3309. Key Drivers for the Week Ahead: 📅 June 9, 2025 (Monday) US-China High-Level Trade Talks Commence in London High-level delegations from the United States and China began trade discussions in London. This meeting followed an announcement by President Donald Trump on Friday, June 6, 2025, who described a preceding 90-minute phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping as "very positive". The US delegation included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, reflecting a coordinated approach to addressing complex trade issues. The talks were primarily aimed at resolving the ongoing bilateral trade war, with a particular focus on tariffs and the global supply of critical rare earth minerals.5 While no specific time for the commencement of talks was provided, it is understood they began during London's daytime, approximately (10:12 CEST /  04:12 EDT). These discussions occurred in the context of a temporary 90-day agreement reached on May 12, 2025, which had seen the US reduce its tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reciprocate by lowering its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%.9 However, this temporary truce is set to expire in early August, and President Trump had recently accused China of violating the agreement, specifically regarding critical mineral exports. The broader bilateral relationship remains strained by issues extending beyond tariffs, including restrictions on advanced chips, student visas, and concerns over China's state-dominated economic model. The prompt scheduling of these high-level talks immediately after a leader-to-leader call suggests a tactical move towards de-escalation of immediate trade tensions, aiming to prevent a full-blown trade war. The objective appears to be managing current conflicts rather than achieving a fundamental resolution, especially with the May 12 agreement nearing its expiration. The core disputes, such as control over rare earths and technology, are deeply entrenched and reflect a broader geopolitical competition rather than mere economic disagreements. This pattern of temporary de-escalation followed by persistent underlying tensions indicates a long-term,structural competition. It suggests that trade policy is increasingly intertwined with national security and geopolitical strategy, implying that businesses should anticipate continued volatility and strategic decoupling in certain sectors, rather than a return to pre-trade war normalcy. Other big movers for gold will be the US inflation reports. 💥 📅 Wednesday, June 11 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT): We get the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Watch for Core CPI (YoY) with a forecast of 2.9% and headline CPI (YoY) at 2.5%. 📅 Thursday, June 12 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT): The US Producer Price Index (PPI) follows. Forecasts are for Core PPI (YoY) at 3.0% and headline PPI (YoY) at 2.6%. 📊 These numbers are critical. If inflation comes in hotter 🔥 than expected, it will likely strengthen the US Dollar 💵 and push real interest rates higher 📈, making gold less attractive. This could trigger further declines 📉, especially given the current market structure. Conversely, cooler 🧊 inflation could spark a significant rebound 🔄. Beyond US data, keep an eye 👁️ on speeches from various European Central Bank (ECB) officials throughout the week, including President Lagarde on Tuesday (23:15 CEST / 17:15 EDT). Their collective tone 🎤 could influence EUR/USD dynamics and indirectly impact the US Dollar Index, offering a counterbalance ⚖️ or amplification to gold's movements. Key Numbers and Technical Levels to Watch: Gold is currently sitting on a substantial speculative net long position of 187.9K contracts. This is a massive amount of bullish bets 📊🐂, making gold highly vulnerable to rapid liquidation 💣 if the fundamental picture turns sour. A "long squeeze" could amplify any downside move. Immediate Support: The 3,300 level is paramount. A decisive break below it would signal further weakness. Below that, 3,250 is strong technical support where we saw a bounce previously. Overhead Resistance: Look for resistance at 3,350-3,360, and then the recent peak of 3,420. Reclaiming these levels would require a significant shift in sentiment. Expect high volatility ⚡, especially around the US inflation releases. Trade smart 🧠, manage your risk ⚖️, and stay nimble! 🏃 Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍 India / Pakistan The ceasefire from May 10 is holding, but diplomatic relations remain frosty. India has launched a global image campaign to gain support, while Pakistan insists on dialogue and accountability. Outlook: Without substantial agreements on border terrorism and water issues, tensions will stay latently high, with potential for new escalation risks. ⚠️ Gaza Conflict Violence escalated again in early June. Israel intensified attacks, killing civilians seeking aid in Gaza City, and at least six people were killed at a distribution point. Outlook: The humanitarian situation continues to worsen 🚨, and international mediation efforts are urgently needed. However, an immediate ceasefire seems unrealistic. ❌ Russia / Ukraine In the first week of June, Russia launched one of its largest series of attacks: hundreds of drones and missiles hit Kharkiv and Kyiv, resulting in civilian casualties. Simultaneously, a planned prisoner exchange has stalled. Outlook: Strategic air attacks will likely continue 💥, and the prisoner exchange remains deadlocked. Without a diplomatic initiative, the conflict will stay entrenched. 🕳️ U.S.–China Trade War Following talks between Trump and Xi, new negotiation rounds are expected in London. China has opened up rare earth exports, a sign of cautious de-escalation. Outlook: If dialogue channels open 🗣️, systemic trust could grow, but genuine reforms remain uncertain. 🤔 🌐 Global Trade War The OECD has lowered its growth outlook to 2.9%, warning of protectionism 🧱 and delayed investments. The ECB is also maintaining synchronization with the FED. Outlook: Without de-escalation, the world faces a global economic slowdown 🐌 and permanent fragmentation of supply chains. 🔗 🏛 Trump vs. Powell Trump has again complained about the FOMC's hesitancy, nicknaming Powell “Too Late,” and demanding a full 1% interest rate cut. Outlook: Pressure is mounting 📣. Whether the Fed yields depends on if inflation and labor data allow for a loose policy. 🎯 💵 U.S. Inflation – May 2025 Forward-looking data shows a weakening services sector and consumer prices rising again as tariffs pass through. Official CPI data for May 2025 will be released on June 11. Outlook: Higher inflation could halt the Fed's "dereflexion" course — a dilemma ⚖️ between growth 📈 and price stability. 🛑 Technical View 📐 Regarding the major Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern on the 4H chart I shared previously, I'd like to explain some new developments that are altering its potential outcome. Since the price has re-entered and fallen below the neckline, I activated my "second brain cell" 🧠 to guess what could be next. This led me to revise the larger 4-hour chart structure with the adjustments shown in the accompanying image. As you can also see in the updated version below, a reversed H&S pattern remains a possibility, as the proportions still appear valid. 🔄 Potential Scenarios for Gold 🧩 Under this revised idea, Gold could potentially reach the neckline entry at 3397 (+88) from the current price. This is one plausible scenario. ✅ Alternatively, the price could drop further to the "Head" at 3120 (-191 from the current 3309), which would, of course, invalidate this H&S pattern. ❗ While this is speculative 🔮, given that trading often involves psychological movements and their resulting impacts, I believe this is a favorable approach to forecasting. Another reason to see it as bullish is the formed standard bull flag 🚩🐂. Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wick-Sniper
2