BTCUSD Analysis : Major Breakout Setup | Big Move Loading"Bitcoin Coiling Below Key Resistance – Breakout or Trap?"
🔍 Technical Overview:
Bitcoin is currently trading within a compressed range, sitting just below a key descending trendline that has capped upside movement for multiple sessions. Price is consolidating between minor highs and lows, hinting at a build-up of momentum for the next breakout move.
The setup presents a classic compression inside a bearish wedge, but with increasing bullish pressure evident from higher lows and wick rejections near minor supports.
🧱 Detailed Technical Breakdown:
🔸 1. Descending Trendline Structure
Price has formed a downward sloping resistance line from earlier highs.
This trendline has acted as a dynamic ceiling, rejecting multiple bullish attempts.
Each time price approaches it, the rejection gets weaker, indicating a possible breakout attempt soon.
🔸 2. Multiple Minor & Major Zones
Minor Resistance: Around $118,800–$119,200
A short-term ceiling that has paused bullish rallies.
Price needs a clean break and close above this to initiate momentum.
Major Resistance: ~$121,000–$121,200
This zone aligns with a previous significant swing high.
A break above here could result in strong bullish continuation toward ATH levels.
Minor Support: ~$117,000
Price has repeatedly bounced from this level.
A breakdown would indicate fading bullish strength and open the downside.
Major Support: ~$115,000
A historically strong demand zone.
If BTC fails all bullish attempts, this would be the final defense for buyers.
🧠 Market Psychology Insight:
Price is trapped between aggressive short-term sellers and accumulating buyers.
Buyers are placing confidence in this area by defending higher lows.
Sellers are still protecting the trendline, but with each retest, the defense weakens.
This is a classic equilibrium zone where liquidity is building—once imbalance hits, a strong impulsive breakout (either direction) is likely.
Volume and momentum should be watched closely as a breakout with confirmation may trap the opposite side, leading to a strong move (short squeeze or long liquidation).
🔮 Scenario Forecasts:
📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario:
Price breaks above $119,200 → minor resistance flips to support
Retest of the broken trendline confirms a bullish breakout
Price targets:
First Target: $121,000–$121,200 (major resistance)
Second Target: $122,500+
Third Target: $123,800–$124,000 (All-Time High)
Confirmation Needed: 4H candle close above descending trendline and $119,200 with rising volume.
📉 Bearish Rejection Scenario:
Price gets rejected from the trendline or minor resistance zone
Breaks below $117,000 minor support
Possible targets:
First Target: $116,000 (reaction zone)
Second Target: $115,000 (major support)
A fall below $115,000 could invalidate the bullish buildup and invite strong bearish continuation.
This would signal that bulls failed to reclaim control, and sellers maintain market structure dominance.
📌 Key Levels Summary:
Type Price Range Significance
🔺 All-Time High $123,800–124,000 Final upside target
🔸 Major Resistance $121,000–121,200 Key breakout level
🔹 Minor Resistance $118,800–119,200 Immediate trendline + local supply
🔹 Minor Support ~$117,000 Local demand base
🔻 Major Support $115,000 Last line of defense for bulls
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy:
Bitcoin is approaching a make-or-break zone under a significant descending trendline. Price compression is tightening, and a breakout looks imminent.
Traders should stay patient and wait for confirmation—either a breakout and successful retest for longs or a rejection and trendline defense for shorting opportunities.
Whether it’s a breakout toward $121K and ATH, or a drop toward $115K support, this setup offers a high-probability trade opportunity for both bulls and bears depending on the confirmation.
Beyond Technical Analysis
USD/CAD potential leg up setuppotential setup. Trade Plan following Road Map:
-wait for pull back zone to enter.
-pull trigger on reversal signal. monitor declining volume as confirmation- "a spike in volume for pull back ending
-target 1 zone - 1.40 area. SL lock in +/- 50% of gains at key areas of structure on 15 minute chart.
-target 2 zone - on route to T2Z use 14 ema and 34 ema as trend continuation on 5 minute and 15 minute chart - key structure: SL zone
XAUUSD Analysis : Channel Break, Demand Zone + SR - Interchange"High-Probability Zone Reaction & SR Flip Confirmation"
Gold (XAUUSD) is currently reacting from a significant support zone after completing a bearish breakout from a well-established ascending channel. The market structure indicates both threat and opportunity depending on how price behaves around key levels ahead.
🔍 Structure Breakdown & Price Behavior:
🔹 1. Rising Channel Violation
Over the past few weeks, price was comfortably moving inside a well-respected ascending channel, making higher highs and higher lows.
Recently, however, price broke below the lower boundary, which is often a bearish signal—indicating a possible trend reversal or a deeper correction phase.
Such breakdowns suggest buyers are losing control, and bearish sentiment is gaining strength.
🔹 2. Supply Zone Reaction & Drop
Before the breakout, we observed a sharp rejection from a high point, triggering a sell-off.
The price completed its move into a previously defined supply zone, resulting in a strong bearish impulsive leg that pushed it outside the channel.
This move shows clear institutional distribution—where large sellers unloaded positions around that zone.
📍 Key Zone Focus:
🟩 Previous Reversal / Demand Zone (Green Box)
Price is now sitting in a historically strong demand zone, which acted as a major reversal point in the past.
This area is marked as the first zone of interest where buyers might step back in to defend.
The green box represents a liquidity pocket where institutions previously accumulated positions—hence it’s a strong bounce candidate.
🟦 SR Interchange Zone (Blue Box)
The next major level above current price is the SR Interchange zone, around 3,320–3,340.
This level was previously broken and now acts as resistance.
It's crucial because it represents the battle zone where the market will decide whether to continue bearish or shift back bullish.
🧠 Market Psychology & Order Flow Insight:
The recent aggressive selling pressure from the highs, followed by a bounce from the demand zone, shows a shift from euphoria to fear.
Sellers are active at supply, while buyers are attempting to defend the previous demand.
The market is currently in decision mode—and the SR flip zone (3,320–3,340) will be the judge.
A break and retest above this level signals strength and potential for a trend resumption.
A failure to reclaim it would confirm bearish dominance and open doors for deeper targets.
🔄 Possible Scenarios Ahead:
📈 Scenario 1 – Bullish Rejection & Breakout:
If buyers successfully hold the 3,280–3,260 demand zone and push price above the SR Interchange zone, we can expect:
📍 Target 1: 3,360 (mid-term resistance)
📍 Target 2: 3,400–3,420 (previous high & upper trendline)
This would confirm a fakeout from the channel and a bullish continuation pattern.
📉 Scenario 2 – Failure at Resistance & Drop Continuation:
If price fails to reclaim the interchange zone, expect a retest of the green demand, followed by a potential drop toward:
📍 3,260 – local support
📍 3,240 – major support (unfilled demand below)
📍 3,220–3,200 – ultimate downside target
This would solidify a bearish market structure, confirming the sellers are in control.
🧭 Key Levels To Watch:
Level Type Price Range Significance
Supply Zone ~3,400–3,420 Major institutional selling area
SR Interchange (Blue) ~3,320–3,340 Critical resistance / flip zone
Current Price ~3,297 Watching reaction for momentum shift
Demand Zone (Green) ~3,280–3,260 Key support / bounce zone
Major Demand Pending ~3,240–3,220 Next support level if drop continues
✅ Conclusion:
Gold is at a critical inflection point.
The recent bearish breakout signals weakness, but the current support zone may provide a short-term bullish setup if buyers defend it effectively. A successful reclaim of the SR flip zone will shift sentiment bullish again. Otherwise, a deeper correction is likely.
This setup is ideal for both swing and intraday traders—look for confirmation signals at the current support and SR zone before executing trades.
USD/CHF hoping lower. before major up turnA note to myself:
- remember no matter what happens. its a 50/50 chance you are right. even with a winning
strategy.
- whats going on inside of yourself. why? whats it trying to tell you?
- what have you learned about yoursefl?
- be patient, take a breathe and be aware of FOMO
- Its not about quantity. its about quality.(choose MAX. 3 trades a week)
- stick to your plan. load up on quality trades.
- RISK MANAGEMENT is the key to being a successful trader AND Risk Reward Ratio minimum 1:3 w
Dogwifhat Poised For 22% Growth Toward $1.50Hello✌
Let’s analyze Dogwifhat’s upcoming price potential 📈.
📈 BINANCE:WIFUSDT is currently sitting near a strong daily support and trendline. At the same time, the Fibonacci Level support lines up closely with this key level. This convergence suggests a potential upside of about 22%, aiming for a target price of $1.50. 🔥
✨We put love into every post!
Your support inspires us 💛 Drop a comment we’d love to hear from you! Thanks , Mad Whale
Crypto Exploded, I Missed it, What should I Buy Now?!The market suddenly exploded… green candles after green candles. Yesterday, you were hesitating to look at the chart, today everyone on social media is posting their profits. So what now? Did you miss out? It’s not too late. The main question now is: What should I buy to catch up?
If you read this analysis till the end, not only will you learn some practical TradingView tools, but you’ll also gain insight into how to act like a professional trader after big pumps not like a reactive follower.
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material.
🎯 Analytical Insight on Ethereum:
BINANCE:ETHUSDT is currently holding near the daily support and the key psychological level at $3,000, which also matches the 0.23 Fibonacci retracement. A potential upside of at least 12% is expected, targeting $3,800 close to a major daily resistance zone. Keep an eye on these levels for possible trade setups 📊⚡.
Now , let's dive into the educational section,
🧠 FOMO: The Enemy That Devours Your Profits
If you feel like you missed the boat now, don’t panic. Everyone has felt that, even top traders. It’s called "FOMO." Jumping into the market without analysis and just on emotions can burn you badly. Instead of regretting, sit calmly, analyze, and wait for the right setup. The market always offers new chances you just need to know how to hunt them.
🔍 What to Buy Now? Logic Over Emotion
There are three types of coins still offering opportunity:
Coins that haven’t broken their previous highs yet
Like a compressed spring, they can jump higher with a small push.
Altcoins lagging behind Bitcoin
When BTC pumps, alts usually follow afterward.
Coins with strong upcoming fundamental news
Networks with upcoming updates or special events that generate excitement.
Don’t forget on-chain analysis. See where money is flowing.
🌟 Look for New Stars and Strong, Established Coins
After a pump, there are two ways to hunt:
🔹 New Stars
Altcoins that are just coming out of their correction phase and haven’t had their main pump yet.
🔸 Strong and Established Coins
Assets that have shown resilience, have strong fundamentals, and tend to pump again after corrections.
Balance your portfolio with both to lower risk and maximize profit potential.
🧰 TradingView Tools to Hunt Opportunities After a Pump
To avoid missing out in the second phase of the market explosion, you must use TradingView’s analytical tools correctly. Here are three key tools you should know right now:
Volume Profile
Helps you understand where most trading volume occurred. Smart money usually buys and sells heavily at these points.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Tells you when the market is overbought. When it drops back to the 40 to 50 range after a peak, that could be a good re-entry point.
Fibonacci Retracement
A tool to find attractive correction zones after a pump. Especially useful if you combine multiple timeframes.
⚖️ Stop Loss Is Necessary, But Take Profit Is More Important
Always place a stop loss in the market. But many forget to set a take profit in bullish markets.
Having a take profit level ensures you lock in gains when the market hits your target and avoid greed.
Key point: Even if you expect huge pumps, take some profit on time to avoid losing it all during corrections.
🪙 The Next Pump Is Just Around the Corner
Instead of jumping into a pump mid-way, focus on spotting setups just forming. Watch for consolidation candles, rising volume, and reactions to classic zones. That’s where you can enter professionally, even before everyone knows what’s coming.
🛠 Game Plan for the Trader Who Fell Behind
Pick three coins that haven’t pumped yet
Test the tools mentioned on them
Set alerts for logical entry signals
Enter with risk management, not emotion
Most importantly analyze, don’t just follow
📌 Summary and Final Advice
If you missed the market pump, don’t worry; crypto markets always offer opportunities you just need to be prepared. A combination of analysis, professional tools, and smart choices between new and established assets can help you not only catch the next pump but ride it ahead of everyone else.
✨ Need a little love!
We pour love into every post your support keeps us inspired! 💛 Don’t be shy, we’d love to hear from you on comments. Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋
📜Please make sure to do your own research before investing, and review the disclaimer provided at the end of each post.
META - LONG Swing Entry PlanNASDAQ:META - LONG Swing Entry Plan
Entry Zone 1: $707.50 – $702.50
→ Open initial position targeting +8% from entry level.
Entry Zone 2: $686.50 – $681.50
→ If price dips further, average down with a second equal-sized entry.
→ New target becomes +8% from the average of Entry 1 and Entry 2.
Edit Zone (Aggressive Demand): $624.70 – $615.00
→ If reached, enter with double the initial size to lower the overall cost basis.
→ Profit target remains +8% from the new average across all three entries.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss:
Risk is capped at 12% below the average entry price (calculated across all executed positions including the Edit Zone).
Position Sizing Approach:
Entry 1: 1x
Entry 2: 1x
Edit Zone: 2x
→ Total exposure: 4x
→ Weighted average determines final TP and SL calculations.
______________________________________
Legal Disclaimer
The information provided in this content is intended for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice or recommendations of any kind. The provider of this content assumes no legal or financial responsibility for any investment decisions made based on this information. Users are strongly advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult with licensed financial advisors before making any financial or investment decisions.
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Trump Tightens the Grip, the IBEX Holds FirmWill the IBEX 35 End July at New Highs? Futures Point Up Despite Tariff Threat
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The IBEX 35 could end July near record highs following a strong opening across European markets. At 08:10 CET, futures on the Spanish benchmark were up 0.54% to 14,445 points, showing more strength than their peers: Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.22%, the German DAX 0.28%, and the UK FTSE 100 0.07%.
This upward momentum comes despite a growing international risk: U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 15% tariff on all imports from Europe, including industrial, agricultural, pharmaceutical, and luxury goods. Fortunately, Europe has chosen not to escalate the conflict by imposing additional tariffs beyond those already in place. A tit-for-tat scenario could have pushed European inflation higher — something the ECB governance is keen to avoid.
Potential Impact on the IBEX 35
The tariff decision introduces uncertainty for key sectors within the IBEX 35, especially those with strong international exposure such as Inditex, Grifols, IAG, Acerinox, and Gestamp, which could face margin pressure and weaker exports. In the short term, the outcome will depend on the European Commission’s response, which is already considering coordinated countermeasures.
Still, investors appeared optimistic in early trading, focusing on a solid round of earnings from Spanish companies. Meliá, Viscofan, PharmaMar, Sanjosé, and Inmobiliaria del Sur posted strong first-half results, lending support to the index. On the downside, BBVA reported a 2% drop in quarterly net profit, and the Bank of Spain has reduced its systemic buffer requirement for the bank.
Technical Analysis
The IBEX 35 is trading near its key resistance level at 14,500 points. A monthly close above that level would confirm a breakout from annual highs, potentially opening the path to 14,800 points. However, the tariff threat could bring short-term volatility.
Since late May, the index has been moving within a price consolidation range, but in the past two sessions it has shown signs of a bullish breakout above the previous high at 14,358 points. The Point of Control (POC) currently lies at 14,000 points, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators and moving average crossovers suggest the current push is backed by the 50-period moving average and an ongoing price expansion.
• Supports: POC at 14,000; key support at 13,599 (consolidation zone)
• Resistances: At current highs
• MACD and RSI: Indicate a growing overbought trend and increasing bullish volume
Despite Trump Tariff Storm
Despite the new tariff front opened by Donald Trump, the IBEX 35 displays a resilience worth noting. Backed by solid corporate earnings and favorable technicals, bulls remain at the helm — for now. The risk of a full-scale trade war still looms, but Europe’s decision not to retaliate has eased inflation concerns.
And like that brave brigantine that sailed stormy seas, the IBEX remains steady and defiant, unshaken by winds or tempest. “Asia to one side, Europe to the other...” Today, the Spanish index sails toward new highs, hoping to close July with all sails unfurled.
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
DXY has finally arrived at our final POI. What next?DXY has finally arrived at a point I marked out for you since. I called it out and I was called a madman.
We may experience some downwards pressure and it already started during the Asian session. We have to wait for further confirmation to know if it wants to continue the bullish movement or fall.
Let's be patient for now.
Wall Street Very Expensive: Time for Europe and China?1) The S&P 500 valuation has reached its late 2021 record
In the second quarter of 2025, the valuation of the U.S. market, represented by the S&P 500, returned to its record levels of late 2021. The S&P 500 has been reaching new all-time highs consistently since early July. In contrast, European and Chinese markets appear undervalued. In Europe, indices such as the Stoxx 600 and the Eurostoxx 50 remain below their historical highs. There is catch-up potential, especially as valuation remains reasonable. Technically, these markets offer attractive setups. In China, the potential is even more pronounced. Chinese markets are significantly behind, both technically and fundamentally. It would simply be a matter of returning to their former peaks.
Although U.S. corporate earnings remain strong, the current valuation of the S&P 500 limits its short-term upside potential. Conversely, Europe—and especially China—offers a more attractive risk/reward profile at this point in the cycle, both in terms of market valuation and technical analysis. While the S&P 500’s long-term trend remains bullish, it may therefore be wise to rebalance slightly in favor of European and Chinese equities.
The first chart below shows monthly candlesticks for the flagship Shenzhen stock exchange index.
The second chart below shows monthly candlesticks for the EuroStoxx 50 futures contract, with a market that has not yet exceeded its historical high—unlike the S&P 500 index.
2) The Shiller PE (or CAPE Ratio) is the best option to compare U.S., European and Chinese equity market valuations
The CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio), also called the Shiller PE, is a financial indicator that measures stock market valuation. It compares the current price of an index, such as the S&P 500, to average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years. Unlike the standard PE ratio based on a single year’s earnings, the CAPE smooths out cyclical fluctuations to provide a more stable, long-term view of valuation.
While the Shiller PE of the S&P 500 has returned to its 2021 record, that of the European and especially Chinese equity markets remains well behind. There is therefore still significant catch-up potential for Chinese and European stocks compared to U.S. stocks according to this fundamental valuation metric.
The chart below, produced by Barclays Research, shows a comparison of equity market valuations using the CAPE ratio between China, the United States, and Europe.
The Warren Buffett indicator, for its part, proposes a valuation comparison using the ratio of market capitalization to GDP. Here too, the message is clear: the Chinese equity market is significantly cheaper than the U.S. equity market. The table below is taken from the website Gurufocus.
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EURUSD I Its re-accumulation. COT Overview Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Smoothie in One Hand, Chart in the Other: Your Vacation ManualSome traders bring a beach read. Others bring their TradingView charts.
It’s the heat of the summer and we figured, why not take it easy with a breeze of lightweight lines to pair with your mezcal espresso martini? Let’s talk about how to relax while still watching the markets.
🏄♂️ Market Never Sleeps… But You Should
Vacations are supposed to be about unplugging, but for traders, that’s just code for “I’ll switch to the app instead.”
And we don’t blame you. With all that’s going on — US-EU tariff deal, stocks at record highs, and Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD outperforming Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD in a monster July run — it’s only natural for market participants to be hooked at this time.
But watch for those signs of getting overly attached. Studies show performance suffers when you're overcooked — like your last scalp trade on Powell Day. So yes, that mojito matters. Just don’t place a leveraged position on a pool float.
📅 Timing the Market… and Your Booking
Let’s talk timing. The pros know not to schedule getaways during Nonfarm Payrolls week or FOMC decision day. (Unless your idea of relaxing is explaining yield curves to your kids on a ferry across lake Como.)
Instead, try planning your time off during historically low-volatility periods. Summer often sees volume dry up like your skin without sunscreen. Think August’s fairly dry weeks — when even the algorithms seem to be on holiday. As always, consult with the Economic Calendar to know when these are.
Bonus tip: if you’re flying and you wanna stay wired in, go for premarket or after-hours shifts. Nothing says “seasoned trader” like placing an order while the flight attendant gathers everyone’s attention for the safety demo.
🧴 SPF 50 and the S&P 500: Know Your Risk Exposure
In these scorchers outside, you wouldn’t step out without sunscreen, right? But would you let your positions roast unsupervised?
Use stop losses like you use sunblock: generously and repeatedly. Even better — scale back. Summer’s thin liquidity (and other summer trading traps ) can turn minor market moves into full-on tidal waves. No one wants to explain to their friends why they lost 40% of their portfolio during a snorkeling trip.
Adequate position sizing is your beach umbrella. It doesn’t stop the storm, but it’ll stop the burn.
🧭 Wi-Fi, but Make It Secure
Public Wi-Fi is great for scrolling memes, not executing trades. One accidental login from a beachside café in Mykonos and boom — your brokerage account may become a group project.
Trading from your vacation spot shouldn’t be a flex (no matter how much you want to look cool to the bunch of people around you). Focus on your game, trade in silence, and bask in sunlight and success.
☀️ Pack Light, Trade Lighter
The golden rule? If you’re not at your desk, don’t trade like you are.
Scale back positions, minimize leverage, and don’t try to outperform the market while someone’s kid is throwing a beach ball at your head. This is a maintenance phase, not a moonshot month.
Think: protect capital, avoid drawdowns, maybe sneak in a swing trade between sunscreen applications.
📲 Must-Have Apps for Sand-and-Screen Trading
You’re not bringing a full setup, but your phone can still do the heavy lifting. Load it with TradingView (obviously), your broker, ideally paired with TradingView, and a solid news feed . Bonus points for noise-canceling headphones that can drown out both market panic and crying toddlers.
Set up push notifications smartly — only the alerts you actually need. You don’t want your wrist buzzing every time Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA moves 0.1%.
Question for the road : What’s your best summer trade… and was it worth checking your phone at dinner to place it?
GBPUSD I Its ready for the deeper pullback - COT OverviewHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
downtrend below 3300 , after ADP-NF⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
The Federal Reserve’s policy statement noted that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, although the unemployment rate remains low and inflation is still “somewhat elevated.” The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% target, while also acknowledging that “uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated.”
Earlier data showed that U.S. GDP grew in the second quarter, but underlying details painted a softer picture. Consumer spending cooled, and business investment declined significantly. According to Reuters, most economists now forecast full-year GDP growth at 1.5%, below the Fed’s 1.8% projection.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold prices reacted negatively as the FED kept interest rates unchanged and Chairman POWELL's hawkish stance. Selling pressure below 3300 is being maintained.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3360- 3362 SL 3367
TP1: $3350
TP2: $3340
TP3: $3330
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3249-$3247 SL $3242
TP1: $3258
TP2: $3270
TP3: $3285
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
What's Nifty Next?With rising tensions between countries, market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious. This geopolitical uncertainty is likely to weigh heavily on investor confidence in the coming weeks.
Based on the current scenario, a realistic target for Nifty seems to be around 21,000 by July, especially if the negative sentiment continues and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain net sellers. Global cues, crude oil prices, and currency fluctuations could further impact the index's performance.
📌 However, if by any chance Nifty manages to close above 25,500, it would indicate an extremely strong bullish breakout, defying current market fundamentals. Given the present conditions, this seems highly unlikely, unless there is a sudden positive catalyst such as:
A major resolution in geopolitical issues
Strong corporate earnings
Aggressive policy support from the government or RBI
🧠 My Take:
For now, it’s wise to remain cautious and watch key support/resistance levels. Volatility may remain high, and short-term traders should manage their positions carefully.
💬 Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Do you think 21k is coming soon, or can the bulls surprise us all?
TESLA ANALYSIS CAN WE HIT 380? Evening everyone
Here is the analysis on Tesla currently:
Thesis For Bullish: If we break the highs of 336 then we can hit levels of 380 or higher
Thesis for Bearish: If we break the low at 298 then a drop down to 291 then 275 makes sense
Trade Smarter Live Better
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
$XRP Historical Golden Ratio - Weekly Timeframe The Historical Golden Ratio (HGR) is the Fibonacci-based market analysis methodology that I created in 2020 (but really discovered). It identifies critical price inflection points by applying Fibonacci in a very unique and fundamental way. It may appear complex from the outside to new and even experienced technical analysis, but under the hood is a very simple and logically built engine that only has two critical parts really. However, it reveals an underlying structure within markets that appears to be fractal-based and dictated by the Golden Ratio. For the experienced market participant, time behind the wheel will reveal that the driving force behind markets has been in plain sight all along; M = φ * H(t) * e^(k * I(t))
Gold 31 July – Bearish Bias Holds, Watching Supply ZonesGold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 31 July
Market structure is now aligned across both higher and lower timeframes:
H4: Bearish
M15: Bearish
This alignment strengthens the probability of trend-continuation setups in favor of the dominant downtrend.
🔄 Current Market Behavior:
The M15 chart is currently in a pullback phase, retracing toward its previous lower high and approaching a key supply zone.
📍 Key Supply Zones to Watch:
Zone 1 – Immediate Supply Zone (3299 – 3305)
• First area of interest where price may react.
• If respected and followed by M1 confirmation, a short setup could be initiated.
• Watch for signs of exhaustion or sharp rejection.
Zone 2 – Higher Supply Zone (3326 – 3332)
• If the first zone fails, this becomes the next high-probability area.
• Well-aligned with the broader bearish structure — expect stronger reaction potential.
• Suitable for cleaner high RR short trades if price reaches this level.
✅ Execution Plan:
• Observe how price behaves inside the marked zones.
• Only plan short entries after M1 confirmation — this adds precision and prevents premature entries.
• Stay patient. Let the market come to you and reveal intent before acting.
📌 Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Structure: H4 and M15 both support downside bias
Zones in Focus:
– Primary: 3299–3305
– Secondary: 3326–3332
Execution: Wait for confirmation before entering.
Risk-Reward: Maintain 1:3 RR minimum (e.g., 40 pip SL, 120 pip TP).
Let the structure guide your setups — not impulse.
📘 Shared by ChartIsMirror
Gold Weekly Outlook (XAUUSD) -28th JulyGold Enters a High-Stakes Week
This week sets the stage for major moves in gold. The charts are signalling liquidity grabs, premium compression, and volatility driven by upcoming macro catalysts.
Key events ahead:
Tuesday: ADP Employment Data
Wednesday: The Fed
Gold is currently consolidating beneath a critical supply zone, suggesting potential for a breakout or rejection. We'll align macro drivers with Smart Money Concepts, ICT methodology, Fibonacci levels, EMAs, RSI, and Fair Value Gaps to craft a precise trading framework.
Technically, price action reflects a corrective phase within a broader uptrend. Confluence support from the ascending trendline and a key horizontal level is in play. As long as price remains above 3342, a bounce toward 3400 remains the preferred scenario.
The broader bullish structure and underlying momentum suggest that once this retracement completes, the uptrend may resume with strength.
🟡 – Summary
🔹 Macro & HTF View:
Bias: Bullish but weakening under premium supply
Key Events: ADP (Tue), FOMC (Wed) → potential for liquidity grabs
Indicators:
RSI divergence (75 → 66)
EMAs flattening
Unfilled FVGs above (3365–3405) and below (3280–3320)
Key Fib targets: 3405 (127%) and 3439 (161.8%)
🔸 Weekly Key Zones
Supply (Short Trap): 3350–3439 → heavy confluence, short bias unless W1 closes above 3439
Primary Demand: 3220–3285 → ideal for news-driven long
Deep Discount (Long Only if Panic): 2960–3050
🎯 Strategy Summary
Short Setup:
Target 3350–3439 → wait for rejection after news
Long Setup:
Target 3220–3285 or deeper
Look for wick rejections + bullish structure reclaim
Avoid: 3285–3350 → indecision zone
🧭 Daily Zones
Sell Zone: 3345–3415 → trap area with FVG + Fib + EMA confluence
Buy Zones:
3290–3320 (primary)
3240–3270 (deeper)
3000–3140 (only if USD spikes)
⏱ H4 + Intraday Bias
Bias: Bearish below 3350
Short Zones:
3365–3405 (rejection only)
3355 (flip zone)
Buy Zones:
3290–3310 (reclaim setup)
3250–3280 (panic flush)
📌 Key Intraday Levels
Resistance: 3405, 3385, 3375–3350, 3350–3340
Support: 3314–3302, 3289–3272, 3260, 3240
⚠️ Final Execution Notes
Stay out of 3340–3326 zone – it’s chop
Wait for confirmation candles (engulfing, pin bars, OB reactions)
Discipline over prediction. Sniper mode only.
Disclaimer: For educational context only.