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OJ BUYBUY OJ at 203.00 to 188.00, riding it back up to 511.00 to 575.00 as Profit Targets, Stop Loss is at 103.00! If anyone likes long mumbo jumbo garbage analysis, than this is NOT for you. Also, if you are afraid of risk, failure, and want only a 100% sure thing, than run as fast as you can from the markets, because the markets are NOT a sure thing, so it is definitely NOT for you. WARNING: This is just opinions of the market and its only for journaling purpose. This information and any publication here are NOT meant to be, and do NOT constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Trading any market instrument is a RISKY business, so do your own due diligence, and trade at your own risk. You can loose all of your money and much more.
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by pstock123
thoughts?i don't wanna continue speculating, truth to be told. i've been calling a divergence in the markets since the first moment bitcoin broke up 20k back in 2021. i'm focus on weekly, monthly and yearly timeframes. finding correlation with daily moves. the usual analysis. i'd just like to state my perspective: "it doesn't make sense that the world is bleeding and the markets greener". the world keeps asking for a new structure in the economy for the sake of humanity. will we let any superstition break the chance to grow as a community that cooperates and grows together without division to establish who's the strongest in an ecosystem that is meant to protect us and protect each other. even the lion knows when to step out, if would be greedy... it knows it'll starve and will starve everything around it.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by xkusa
1
ARB — Waiting for Dip into FVG Buy ZonePrice is hovering just above a key Daily FVG zone, following a rejection from the $0.40 prior resistance. Current structure does not justify longs unless a dip into the FVG zone occurs. 🟩 Buy Zone: $0.3135–$0.33 (FVG) • Confluence of demand and fair value gap • High-probability entry if price dips into this area • No setup above current price — wait for confirmation 🔴 Invalidation: • Breakdown below $0.294 = structural failure 🎯 Targets: • First: $0.40 (prior resistance) • Then: $0.513–$0.514 (monthly resistance zone) 📌 Clear plan: no FOMO. Only act on dip into value zone, not from mid-range.
Long
by Goldfinch_song
XAUUSD BATTLE PLAN — 16 JUNE 2025GoldFxMinds — Sniper Liquidity Execution 👋 Hello traders — we’re entering a highly tactical week where liquidity rotation dominates both sides of the board. This is no longer trend-following — this is liquidity chess. 🔎 Market Narrative Gold remains structurally bullish after a clean sequence of higher lows: 3120 → 3246 → 3448. Last week’s sweep above 3447 cleared weak hands, activated premium liquidity traps, and left price fully positioned inside extended premium expansion. Smart money continues rotating liquidity aggressively as markets prepare for this week’s heavy catalysts. With FOMC, Powell’s press conference, Fed projections, and Middle East tensions all unfolding, institutional positioning is building quietly beneath surface price moves. For us, this is not a moment to guess or force trades — this is the phase where patience and structure offer the only real edge. 🎯 GoldFxMinds Bias for 16 June 2025 🔼 Short-term: Price remains inside premium expansion, with open liquidity layers above 3450 → 3480 → 3505 still uncollected. We allow price to finish hunting late buyers before considering any premium exhaustion reactions. No blind shorting inside premium unless exhaustion signals confirm. 🔽 Medium-term positioning: Controlled pullbacks into 3368 and deeper recalibration zones offer the cleanest tactical long opportunities, aligned with higher timeframe bullish structure for potential future premium expansions. ❌ No aggressive directional conviction intraday: The current structure demands discipline, patience, and reactive execution — not early bias. 🔼 Premium Supply Zones (Sniper Calibrated) Price Zone Explanation 3450 – 3462 🔸 Premium inducement zone — early liquidity pocket where price may react mildly before sweeping deeper premium levels. 3480 – 3495 🔸 Liquidity collection extension — gap zone drawing in late buyers and liquidity build-up above recent highs. 3505 – 3515 🔸 Premium exhaustion — final sweep level for late liquidity grabs before potential higher timeframe recalibrations. 🔽 Demand Defense Zones (Sniper Calibrated) Price Zone Explanation 3410 – 3400 🔸 Micro pullback — short-term liquidity refill zone valid for scalps, not for strong swing positioning. 3368 – 3352 🔸 Tactical bullish recalibration — strong HTF OB + FVG combo, valid for tactical swing positioning with structure confirmation. 3308 – 3292 🔸 Institutional re-accumulation base — deeper liquidity recalibration where larger players likely step in for new expansions. 🎯 Execution Flow & Tactical Outlook We let liquidity fully expose itself before positioning: Above 3450: Expect continued liquidity sweeps. Monitor sharp reactions above 3480 for exhaustion setups — only trade short-side if clear rejection signals emerge. Into pullbacks: Minor dips toward 3410 offer quick reactive scalps only. The real positioning opportunities open inside 3368 and deeper zones, where recalibration offers cleaner entries aligned with HTF bullish structure. Discipline is key: No chasing. No prediction. Only reaction to clean liquidity behavior. 🧠 Trader’s Mindset for This Week We're facing one of the heaviest institutional risk weeks: 🏛 FOMC Interest Rate Decision → Major market-moving catalyst. 🏛 Powell’s Press Conference → Immediate tone-shifting potential. 📊 Fed Projections → Will influence short-term USD positioning. 📊 Retail Sales & Housing Data → Potential intraday volatility triggers. 🌍 Middle East Tensions → Underlying risk bid remains supportive for gold. Each event is fuel for liquidity displacement. We don't react emotionally — we position where liquidity delivers. 🚀 If this battle plan helps you stay fully locked — drop a 🚀, share your views, and follow GoldFxMinds for sniper liquidity updates throughout the week. Stay sharp — liquidity always moves first. — GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
1
Re-defining Trading Psychology: A Functional ApproachRethinking Trading Psychology: A Functional Definition Trading psychology is often misunderstood or overly simplified in trading discourse. Psychology, by definition, is the scientific study of the mind and behavior. When applied to trading, trading psychology should be defined as the study of how our mental processes directly influence market structure through behavior—specifically through the act of placing trades. The Facts: How Humans Influence the Market Traders interact with the market in only a few meaningful ways: Placing entries Setting stop losses Setting take-profit (target) levels Though external variables such as news events can impact decision-making, they only affect where we choose to interact with the market—they do not directly move price. Price only responds to order flow , and all order flow originates from trader decisions. Therefore, these three actions—entries, stops, and targets—are the only real mechanisms through which psychology influences price action. Entry: The Initiator of Market Movement Entries are typically based on structural cues like engulfing candles or order blocks —price zones where a shift in momentum is visible. These areas act as high-probability triggers that prompt traders to take action in a particular direction. When enough buy orders are placed at a bullish signal, we see that reflected in the strength and size of bullish candles. Conversely, strong bearish signals generate concentrated sell-side pressure. This collective order flow initiates price movement—entries are the impulse drivers of the market. Stop Losses: The Creation of Liquidity Pools Once a position is opened, traders generally place stop losses behind significant structure—often just beyond the order block or engulfing pattern that prompted the entry. These zones become liquidity pools —clusters of pending orders that, when triggered, cause mass exits and reallocation of capital. When price returns to these zones, it forces traders out of the market, often resulting in sharp movements or false breakouts. This behavior is not coincidental; it is a byproduct of shared psychological behavior manifesting as clustered risk management. Take-Profits: Delayed Exit Pressure Alongside stop losses, traders also define target levels where they plan to close their trades. These levels can be calculated based on fixed R-multiples (2R, 3R, etc.) or drawn from contextual zones like previous highs/lows or supply and demand areas. As price moves into profit and hits these levels, traders begin to exit en masse. This diminishes order flow in the direction of the trade, often leading to hesitation or minor reversals—much like stop losses do when they are hit. Conclusion: Market Movement vs. Market Stalling To summarize: Entries drive market movement Stop losses and target levels stall or reverse movement This dynamic defines how human behavior—guided by psychological patterns—actually shapes price. In this framework, engulfments represent entry logic , while liquidity zones represent collective exit logic . Redefining Trading Psychology Contrary to popular belief, trading psychology isn’t just about “staying disciplined” or “keeping emotions in check.” While emotional control matters, it’s secondary to understanding how trader behavior creates cause-and-effect loops in price action. Having a trading plan is important—but deviating from that plan is not always due to emotion alone. It can stem from overconfidence, impulsivity, cognitive bias, or poor conditioning. These are psychological behaviors that affect execution, and thus, affect market movement. What’s Next In my next writing, I will explore how the sheer volume of market participants leads to herding behavior —the collective patterns that emerge from mass psychology and their role in creating consolidation zones, liquidity traps, and false breakouts.
Education
by The_Forex_Steward
3
XAUUSD H4 Outlook — 16 June 2025👋 Hello team, here’s where we stand before the upcoming key week: 🔎 The Narrative Gold remains in bullish control after weeks of controlled expansion. The clean breakout above previous major highs triggered liquidity resets that cleared significant weak-handed positions. Last week’s sweep into 3447 activated premium liquidity, trapping late buyers at the edge of impulsive highs. But the game is far from over — smart money continues to rotate liquidity at these extreme levels, using premium expansion to build further trap pockets both above and below. Behind this technical expansion, macro tensions continue to fuel underlying gold demand. Geopolitical uncertainties remain elevated with the Middle East escalation risk growing, while recent Fed positioning keeps rate path expectations flexible. The upcoming FOMC decision later this week will likely act as the true liquidity catalyst — until then, gold remains positioned for further inducement cycles as both buyers and sellers continue to get baited into traps. 🔼 Premium Supply Zones Price Zone Description 3447 – 3470 Weak high sweep — premium liquidity trap fully active 3500 – 3525 Main extension liquidity pocket — Fibonacci cluster (1.272 & 1.414 extensions) 3550 – 3570 Exhaustion inducement — full 1.618 premium extension stack 🔽 Demand Defense Zones Price Zone Description 3415 – 3395 Minor imbalance recalibration — short-term liquidity refill zone 3365 – 3345 Core breakout OB + FVG overlap — main recalibration zone if pullbacks extend 3285 – 3265 HTF bullish structure base — BOS origin + deep recalibration defense level 🎯 Where We Stand Right Now ✅ Smart money holds full control inside premium expansion. ✅ Inducement layers remain open both above and below current price. ✅ We expect short-term liquidity sweeps before any major expansion unfolds. ✅ No change in bias — bullish structure remains valid while 3285 holds. 🔐 The Mindset 👉 This is not the place for aggressive chasing. 👉 Liquidity will continue to hunt both sides into key events ahead. 👉 Our job is not to predict, but to position with discipline once liquidity confirms displacement inside the calibrated zones. 🚀 If this breakdown helps you stay locked: 💬 Drop a 🚀, leave your thoughts & follow for full sniper-level updates as we approach a volatile week ahead. Stay sharp — the trap is already in play. — GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD FULL DAILY OUTLOOK — 16 JUNE 2025👋 Hello traders, welcome to a key week for gold. The bullish expansion continues to unfold cleanly, following weeks of calculated breakout sequences. After liquidating major liquidity pockets below 3120 earlier this year, gold shifted into controlled higher timeframe expansion. The breakout above May’s consolidation confirms full bullish structure control. However, we are now entering premium exhaustion territory, where liquidity traps become increasingly dangerous for emotional traders. This is where most fail — chasing late breakouts — but we stay patient and execute only inside clean zones. 🔎 STRUCTURE PROGRESSION ✅ Weekly BOS fully confirmed → higher timeframe bullish structure intact. ✅ Daily has printed higher lows at 3120 → 3246, leading to the recent higher high at 3448. ✅ Price is now extended into premium expansion. ✅ EMA 5/21/50 fully locked bullish — trend continuation bias. ✅ RSI remains firm but near extended levels. ✅ Fibonacci extensions above are now fully in play. 🎯 DAILY BIAS — 16 JUNE 2025 Primary bias remains bullish as long as price holds above 3355 structure. Price sits inside premium expansion, where liquidity traps may unfold near 3448–3505. Controlled pullbacks into 3405–3385 remain healthy for continuation, while deeper dips into 3325 open better risk-reward positioning. Bullish continuation remains the base case, but aggressive premium sweeps before FOMC remain highly probable. 🔼 DAILY SUPPLY ZONES Price Zone Context 3448 – 3460 Breakout premium supply (first liquidity trap zone) 3500 – 3505 1.272 Fibonacci extension — major liquidity pocket 3570 – 3575 1.618 Fibonacci extension — exhaustion premium trap 🔽 DAILY DEMAND ZONES Price Zone Context 3405 – 3385 Shallow pullback liquidity zone 3355 – 3325 Main Daily OB demand — structure protection 3290 – 3255 Deep flush zone — extreme HL recalibration zone ⚠ THE BATTLE THIS WEEK ✅ Price may attempt premium sweeps above 3448 → 3505 before any deeper correction. ✅ Below 3385 lies the first reactive zone for controlled pullbacks. ✅ FOMC remains the dominant macro driver — liquidity will likely front-run into Wednesday. ✅ Patience is key — the market may trigger both traps before any clear directional expansion unfolds. 🔐 Mindset Reminder: In premium we don't chase — we wait for the market to exhaust liquidity and show real intent. Our job is not to predict reversals, but to execute once liquidity confirms displacement. 🚀 If this helped you build your map for the week, hit that 🚀, drop your thoughts below, follow for full sniper insights. We trade clean. We execute precise. — GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook 16-20 JuneHello traders 👋, A powerful week ahead with extremely sensitive fundamentals in play. 🔎 Macro Fundamentals 🔥 FOMC rate decision + press conference coming up. This will set the tone for USD and risk markets. 🏦 FOMC statement + economic projections will guide the next dollar liquidity wave. 📊 Key US consumer data via Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales. 🏠 Housing sector updates: Permits, Starts, NAHB. 📈 Business inventories, Philly Fed, CB Leading Index, TIC flows. ⚠ Volatility expected to spike heavily mid-week during the Fed. The market is positioned for liquidity grabs, with strong potential for traps both sides. Execution requires sniper discipline. 🔬 Technical Structure — Weekly Chart Context Weekly bullish BOS confirmed. Weak High sitting at 3448, currently challenged. We are extended in premium territory after multiple bullish expansions. Main premium OB zone: 3445 - 3465, highly reactive zone. Discount demand stands lower around 3320 - 3280 and 3100 key weekly equilibrium. EMAs remain fully locked bullish. RSI approaching extended levels (71), risk of profit-taking spikes remains. 🎯 Key Weekly Levels Type Zone Comment 🔼 Resistance 3445 – 3465 Active premium trap zone 🔼 Resistance 3502 1.272 Fibonacci extension 🔼 Resistance 3572 1.618 Fibonacci extension 🔼 Resistance 3649 2.0 Fibonacci extension 🔽 Support 3320 – 3280 Last valid weekly OB 🔽 Support 3100 Weekly equilibrium & demand 🧭 Weekly Bias 🔧 Primary bias: bullish continuation still intact while weekly structure remains protected. Watch for sweeps above 3445-3465. 🔧 Potential correction risk from high-impact fundamentals (FOMC). Buy dips if structure holds. 🔥 If you enjoy this clean breakdown: hit that 🚀, follow & drop your thoughts below! Stay sharp traders — we execute with precision. — GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Oracle Just Frickin Exploded ....What the Hell Just Happened?!!When you hear the name Oracle, what comes to mind? Chances are, you're thinking of old-school databases, big enterprise contracts, or maybe Larry Ellison’s yacht. And you're not wrong — Oracle has been a software giant for decades. But behind the legacy, there’s a transformation underway that’s catching serious investor attention: Oracle is becoming one of the most quietly powerful cloud infrastructure players in the AI boom. So the real question smart investors should be asking right now isn’t: “Is Oracle still relevant?” It’s this: “Is Oracle still a smart investment at this price?” As a value investor who combines deep fundamental analysis with AI-powered tools, I’m going to walk you through a comprehensive breakdown of Oracle from a true value lens — one that cuts through the noise and gets to the numbers that actually matter. Whether you're learning how to value a stock or looking for your next long-term compounder, this guide will change how you see companies like ORCL. Let’s dive in. 🧩 First: What Even Is Oracle? To understand whether Oracle is a good buy, you first need to understand what it actually does — and how it’s reinventing itself in the AI era. 👇 TL;DR – Oracle in 3 Sentences: 💲It builds the databases that power much of the world’s enterprise software and runs mission-critical infrastructure for governments and companies. 💲It’s pivoting fast into cloud computing — and now claims cloud growth of over 70%, driven by demand from AI startups and enterprises alike. 💲With nearly 80% of its revenue coming from recurring cloud services, Oracle is quickly becoming an AI-first infrastructure provider. Oracle isn’t just the old guard anymore — it’s quietly competing with AWS and Azure for the future of cloud. 🧠 Understanding Value: What Makes a Stock Undervalued or Overvalued? Before we talk stock prices, let’s clarify something: Value investing isn’t about buying cheap stocks. It’s about buying great businesses for less than they’re worth. To determine whether Oracle is undervalued or not, I ran it through six institutional-grade valuation models — then created a weighted average fair value to account for both opportunity and risk. These models include: ✅ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) ✅ Price-to-Earnings Multiples ✅ PEG Ratios ✅ Graham Formula ✅ Dividend Discount Model ✅ Forward Earnings Forecasts Let’s walk through them — simply and clearly. 💵 Market Snapshot (as of June 14, 2025) 🔹 Current Stock Price: $215.22 (All-time high) 🔹 Consensus Analyst Target: ~$230–240 (some stretch targets at $275) 🔹 My Fair Value Estimate (weighted model): $217.50 🔹 Upside Potential: ~1% base case, with a bull case of ~28%, bear case of -5-10%. 📊 Let’s Break Down the Valuation Models — One by One 1️⃣ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) This model asks: “How much cash will Oracle generate in the future — and what is that worth today?” Assumptions: - Revenue grows at ~11% CAGR - 10% discount rate - Terminal growth at 2% Fair Value from DCF: $235.00 2️⃣ P/E Multiples (Price-to-Earnings) We look at how much investors are paying per dollar of earnings — adjusted for Oracle’s industry average. Fair Value from P/E: $220.00 (Oracle trades near 19× earnings vs. industry ~20×) 3️⃣ Forward P/E Valuation Forward P/E accounts for future earnings projections — critical for growth pivots like Oracle’s cloud expansion. Fair Value from Forward P/E: $240.00 4️⃣ Graham Formula Ben Graham’s method values a company based on conservative earnings and growth expectations. Fair Value from Graham Formula: $200.00 5️⃣ PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings/Growth) A PEG near 1.0 means the price matches growth. Oracle’s growth-adjusted valuation looks compelling. Fair Value Estimate from PEG: $250.00 6️⃣ Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Oracle pays a dividend, but it’s modest. This model gives a lower valuation since most profits are reinvested. Fair Value from DDM: $180.00 📊 Final Verdict: Weighted Average Fair Value = $217.50 At a current price of $215.22, Oracle is fairly valued — with more upside if growth exceeds expectations. BUT, I'd 100% wait for a pull-back. ⚖️ How I Weighed the Models (And Why It Matters) Some valuation models work better for mature dividend payers. Others capture future growth. For Oracle — which straddles both — we need a balanced lens. Here’s how I weighed the models: 🔹 Discounted Cash Flow (25%) Oracle’s predictable cash flows and stable margin profile make DCF highly reliable. 🔹 Price-to-Earnings (20%) Solid earnings and long-term contracts make the P/E model effective here. 🔹 Forward P/E (15%) We factor in strong earnings guidance and cloud growth momentum. 🔹 Graham Formula (15%) Good for conservatively modeling a legacy-heavy but evolving business. 🔹 PEG Ratio (15%) Captures Oracle’s accelerating cloud growth and valuation premium. 🔹 Dividend Discount Model (10%) Minor weighting — the dividend is nice but not central to the investment thesis. Result: A composite valuation of $217.50 — right around current prices, but with a stretch case closer to $275. 📚 Book Value Growth: Quiet Compounding in Action Oracle’s Book Value Per Share (BVPS) is often overlooked — but it's telling a quiet growth story. Here’s how it’s evolved: 🔹 2020: ~$52 🔹 2024: ~$80 🔹 5-Year CAGR: ~11% If this trend holds, BVPS could reach $142 by 2029. At the current P/B ratio of 2.7×, that implies a future price target of ~$384 — long-term investors, take note. This isn’t just noise. It’s what compounding looks like beneath the surface. 🔍 The Metrics That Matter Here’s what’s driving my conviction: 🔹 P/E Ratio ~19× — Slightly below industry average. Not overvalued. 🔹 Forward P/E ~18× — Sign of efficient earnings growth. 🔹 ROE ~25% — A solid return on shareholder equity. 🔹 Debt/Equity ~1.2× — Manageable leverage, not excessive. 🔹 PEG Ratio ~1.3× — Growth-adjusted value looks reasonable. 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $20.8B — Plenty of ammo for buybacks, dividends, or reinvestment. 🔹 Cloud Revenue Growth: Expected to surge 40–70% next year. This isn’t a sleepy old tech company anymore. Oracle is moving — fast. 📰 What’s Happening Right Now? 🔹 Q4 FY2025 Beat: $15.9B revenue (+11%), EPS beat 🔹 FY2026 Outlook: $67B revenue target, cloud growth >70% 🔹 Stock Surge: +29% YTD; +14.5% in a single day — best in 3 years 🔹 Record RPO: $138B — 41% YoY growth, signaling backlog strength 🔹 Some Analysts Cautious: Concerned about margin pressure and stretched valuations Oracle is executing. But it's also priced for near-perfection — which means entry timing matters. 📈 Technicals: What Do the Charts Say? Even fundamental investors should watch the chart. 🔹 Pattern: Inverse head & shoulders breakout 🔹 RSI: Overbought (~85) — signals short-term overheating 🔹 Support Levels: $180 and $154 — key zones to buy on dips 🔹 Next Resistance: ~$275 — stretch target on breakout continuation 🔹 Momentum: Strong buy signals from moving averages 📌 Recommendation: Wait for pullbacks between $180–200 for best risk/reward. 🧠 Bottom Line: Should You Buy Oracle? Let’s be real: Oracle isn’t flashy — but it’s doing something very rare: ✅ Accelerating growth in a legacy business ✅ Winning cloud infrastructure deals in the AI race ✅ Generating enormous cash flow ✅ Reasonably priced vs. peers If you want exposure to AI infrastructure without the megacap premiums of NVIDIA or Microsoft — Oracle might be the play. It’s not undervalued by much, but pullbacks offer a great long-term entry. Disclaimer: this is for informational purposes only. Do your own due diligence. 🚀 Want To Analyze Stocks Like This Without Doing All the Math? I built Wallstreet Alchemist AI to help investors cut through hype and analyze real value — using the same models I use professionally. 🎯 Try it for free (LINK IN PROFILE) — and let AI do the math, so you can focus on conviction.
NYSE:ORCL
by Wallstreet_Alchemist
GBPJPY : Could price break the resistance area?Looking at the 1-hour chart of GBP/JPY, price is currently trading around 195.53, caught between two significant zones. Immediate resistance lies around the 196.40–196.50 area, where price has previously rejected several times—this is a strong supply zone. On the downside, the 194.40–194.60 zone acts as key support and demand, with price bouncing off this level multiple times, showing buyers are still defending it. The overall structure still respects a higher low formation, supported by an ascending trendline from the end of May, suggesting bullish bias unless that structure breaks. Next week, keep an eye on UK CPI and BOE rate decision—both could be big movers. If CPI comes in hot, it could spark bullish momentum and push GBP/JPY through the 196.50 ceiling. On the other hand, dovish BOE commentary could reverse sentiment fast. For now, potential long entries could be considered near 194.60 support with targets toward 196.50, while shorts might be taken around the resistance zone with tight stops and confirmation. Always watch for breakout or rejection signs at these levels before committing.
by anakliarfx