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XAUUSD Outlook – July 29, 2025 Gold enters a high-risk environment starting today. All eyes are on Jerome Powell's speech, which will signal whether the Fed remains firm on its hawkish stance or adopts a more dovish tone. 📈 That said, a broader look at the chart suggests the market has already aligned itself with the dominant trend. 🗓️ In addition to today’s speech, tariff-related news expected on Friday doesn’t seem likely to disrupt the ongoing bullish momentum in gold — or in crypto markets, for that matter. 🧠 That’s the general market read I'm sensing right now, but we’ll have to see how it unfolds. 🎯 Personally, I still view the $3290 level as a solid buy zone, with the potential to become one of gold’s historical bottoms.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SineHeidari
Is the market panicking over FOMC today?⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold (XAU/USD) fluctuates within a narrow range during the Asian session on Wednesday, showing only modest gains and losses as traders tread carefully ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. The metal’s recent rebound from the $3,300 area faces hesitation, with investors awaiting clearer signals on the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory before committing to new positions. As such, attention remains firmly on the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting, set to be released later today. In the meantime, pre-Fed uncertainty is lending some support to the safe-haven appeal of gold. Additionally, a slight pullback in the U.S. Dollar—after hitting its highest level since June 23 on Tuesday—is providing a mild lift to the metal. However, expectations that the Fed will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period are limiting the dollar’s decline and capping upside potential for the non-yielding yellow metal. Adding to the cautious mood, recent optimism on global trade also tempers bullish momentum in XAU/USD. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: slight recovery, not big before FOMC news. Gold price will still be under selling pressure when interest rate stays at 3300 ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3373- 3375 SL 3380 TP1: $3360 TP2: $3344 TP3: $3330 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3283-$3281 SL $3276 TP1: $3295 TP2: $3307 TP3: $3320 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
3
BTCUSD Analysis : Blue Ray + MMC Bullish Scenario + Target Zone🟢 Today’s BTCUSD Analysis (MMC) – Strategic Insight into Institutional Behavior 💪 📊 Chart Breakdown: Understanding Price Through MMC This 4H BTCUSD chart highlights critical behavior using Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) — where smart money traps, fakes, and flips market participants to create directional moves. Let’s break down the scenario: 🔸 1. Fakeout Zone – Smart Money Trap Price initially surged to a local high, triggering a bullish fakeout, as shown in the green rectangle. This move is designed to lure in breakout buyers above resistance, only to reverse sharply. The sudden drop confirms smart money liquidation, catching retail longs off-guard. A perfect example of a liquidity grab before shifting back into range. 📌 Fakeouts often mark the beginning of a new range or reversal setup in MMC methodology. 🔸 2. Blue Ray – Trend Continuation Structure The consolidation after the fakeout forms the Blue Ray pattern, a recognizable trend continuation framework. This structure signals smart money’s accumulation or re-accumulation phase. Note how the price oscillates within the pattern, creating both lower highs and higher lows. These compressions usually lead to explosive moves, either up or down, depending on liquidity build-up. 🔸 3. QFL – Quantity Following Line Event Price briefly dips below the QFL level — another engineered stop-hunt to shake out premature longs and trap breakout sellers. The reaction afterward shows strong buyer defense, confirming hidden demand. MMC traders recognize this zone as a fake breakdown, setting up for the next trend wave. 🔸 4. Central Reversal Zone – The Decision Area We’re currently hovering around the Central Reversal Zone, a key level of decision-making. This is where liquidity from both buyers and sellers meets, making it a high-volatility zone. Price could either: (Scenario 1) Reject and fall lower to retest the trendline zone (marked with label 1). (Scenario 2) Break above minor resistance and head toward the Next Reversal Zone (marked with label 2). This structure aligns with MMC’s "Trap – Absorb – Break" cycle. 🔸 5. Major & Minor Resistance Above the current price lies: Minor Resistance (~$120,000): Immediate zone to clear for bullish continuation. Major Resistance (~$121,000): Strong institutional supply, could act as the final hurdle before reversal. If price clears these, BTC will likely target the Next Reversal Zone (~$122,500–123,500) for the next MMC reaction or short-term top. 🧠 Strategic Trade Outlook (MMC Logic) ✅ Bullish Playbook (Scenario 2): Entry: Break and retest above $120,000 (Minor Resistance) Confirmation: Hold above Central Reversal Zone with impulse Target: $122,500–123,500 (Next Reversal Zone) Risk: Close below $117,500 invalidates idea 🔻 Bearish Playbook (Scenario 1): Entry: Rejection from $119,500–120,000 Target: Trendline support or prior QFL (~$116,000–115,500) Invalidation: Clean 4H close above $120,500 📐 Key Concepts in This Analysis Fakeout Trap: Retail euphoria liquidation QFL Sweep: Smart money’s liquidity grab below structure Blue Ray: Compression structure before continuation Reversal Zones: Institutional interest areas where reactions occur SR Flip Zones: Level conversion confirms trend maturity 📈 Summary BTCUSD is currently in a smart money-controlled environment, compressing near key structural levels. The next move will be large, and by applying MMC, we’re prepared for both bullish breakout and bearish retest scenarios. Be patient — traps come before trends.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
GOLD (XAUUSD) Analysis : Major Break + Bullish Setup + Target🟩 Today’s GOLD Analysis based on Volume Behavior, Smart Money Traps & Market Structure (MMC) 🔍 Chart Breakdown and MMC Concepts Explained: 1. Preceding Downtrend – Smart Money Trap Initiated The chart begins with an extended downtrend, marking significant bearish pressure. However, deeper into the move, we notice price entering a Volume Absorption (VA) Zone — a key MMC signal where institutional orders quietly absorb aggressive retail selling. This Volume Absorption Zone is highlighted on the left of the chart. Smart money quietly positions longs here while inducing panic-selling from retail traders. Wicks and indecision candles show early signs of sell exhaustion. 2. QFL Breakdown & Liquidity Sweep The breakdown from the QFL (Quick Flip Level) is another hallmark of MMC behavior. The market intentionally breaks previous lows to trigger stop-loss clusters — known as a liquidity sweep or stop-hunt. Price aggressively drops to a well-marked demand zone. Massive bullish reaction from this zone confirms that smart money has completed accumulation. The QFL move is not a true breakout, but a trap, designed to mislead retail into chasing shorts. 3. Demand Zone Reaction – Shift in Momentum Price finds support at the demand zone (highlighted in green) and starts forming higher lows. This transition from lower lows to higher lows is a structural confirmation of market reversal. Buyers have regained control. Large bullish candles and wick rejections at key levels signal institutional entry. 4. SR Interchange Zone – Key MMC Confirmation One of the most important zones on this chart is the SR Interchange area. This level was previously resistance and is now acting as support — a concept known as support-resistance flip. MMC teaches us that this is where smart money re-tests the breakout zone to trap late sellers and confirm the trend. This zone is reinforced by: Previous rejections Retest with wicks Alignment with ascending trendline support 5. Minor & Major Resistance Levels Currently, price is attempting to break above a minor resistance at ~$3,330–3,332. If it breaks, the next major target lies at the ~$3,340–3,345 level, marked on the chart. This zone is crucial for short-term targets and may act as a profit-taking zone for early bulls. Once this major resistance is cleared, the trendline projection suggests a continuation toward higher highs. 📐 Trendline Analysis An ascending trendline is supporting price action. Each bounce off this line has led to higher lows — a clear sign of bullish intent. Trendline + SR Interchange = Confluence zone Traders should watch for bullish engulfing candles or strong wick rejections at this trendline area for re-entry or add-ons. 🧠 MMC Strategy Interpretation (Mirror Market Concepts) This chart perfectly follows the MMC logic: Trap retail sellers during the downtrend. Absorb their volume at a key zone (Volume Absorp). Sweep liquidity below QFL level. Reverse structure with a shift to higher highs and higher lows. Interchange SR zone to test buyers' strength. Continue trend post-confirmation with breakout above resistance. This is the classic "trap-to-trend" sequence smart money uses repeatedly in gold and other volatile markets. ✅ Trade Setup Summary: Bias: Strongly Bullish (based on market structure shift) Entry #1: Pullback into SR Interchange (ideal if price rejects 3,326–3,328) Entry #2: Break and retest of Minor Resistance (3,332–3,334) Targets: TP1: 3,340 (Major Resistance) TP2: 3,345–3,350 (Projection based on breakout path) Invalidation: Clean break below trendline and demand zone (~3,318) 🧭 Final Words for Traders: Gold is currently positioned at a critical junction where structure, volume, and institutional behavior all align. If you're following MMC strategies, this is a textbook scenario: Trap ✅ Absorption ✅ Structure Shift ✅ Trendline Support ✅ SR Interchange ✅ Now, we wait for confirmation and execute with discipline.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
AUDJPY at Resistance: Could we see a reversal here?The market on this pair shows us a classic scenario where price presses into a resistance zone after a sustained bullish move. Price action approaching this zone appears hesitant, with smaller candles and wicks showing signs of exhaustion, meaning the possibility that buying momentum is weakening. There is a clear intention in this structure and I am anticipating a reversal here. My first target (TP1) at 95.400 is placed just above a previous structure low and it’s a logical level for a partial exit, as price may pause or react there. The second target (TP2), placed even lower, hints at a full mean reversion idea targeting the origin of the previous bullish leg. The setup requires patience, waiting for confirmation perhaps in the form of a strong bearish rejection before committing to the short. Overall, it’s a disciplined setup that mirrors the kind of analysis I like to gravitate toward: structured, simple and driven by high probability reversal zones. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TrendDiva
39
Is Nissan's Future Fading or Forging Ahead?Nissan Motor Company, once a titan of the global automotive industry, navigates a complex landscape. Recent events highlight the immediate vulnerabilities. A powerful 8.8-magnitude earthquake off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula on July 30, 2025, triggered Pacific-wide tsunami alerts. This seismic event prompted Nissan to **suspend operations at certain domestic factories in Japan**, prioritizing employee safety. While a necessary precaution, such disruptions underscore the fragility of global supply chains and manufacturing, potentially impacting production targets and delivery schedules. This immediate response follows a period of significant operational adjustments as Nissan grapples with broader economic, geopolitical, and technological headwinds. Beyond natural disasters, Nissan faces substantial financial and market share challenges. Although Fiscal Year 2023 saw operating profit and net income increases, global sales volume remained largely stagnant at 3.44 million units, signaling intensified market competition. Projections for Fiscal Year 2024 indicate a **forecasted revenue decline**, and recent U.S. sales figures show an 8% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025. Macroeconomic pressures, including inflation, volatile currency fluctuations, and a significant hit from **billions of dollars in lease losses** due to plummeting used car values, have directly impacted profitability. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the threat of a 24% U.S. tariff on Japanese auto exports, further threaten Nissan's crucial North American market. Nissan's struggles extend into the technological arena and its innovation strategy. Despite holding a **remarkable patent portfolio** with over 10,000 active families, the company faces criticism for **lagging in electric vehicle (EV) adoption** and perceived technological stagnation. The slow rollout and underwhelming market impact of new EV models, coupled with a notable absence in the booming hybrid market, have allowed competitors to gain significant ground. Moreover, the brand has contended with **multiple cybersecurity breaches**, compromising customer and employee data, which damages trust and incurs remediation costs. Internal factors, including the lingering effects of the **Carlos Ghosn scandal**, management instability, and costly product recalls—like the recent July 2025 recall of over 480,000 vehicles due to engine defects—have further eroded investor confidence and brand reputation. Nissan's journey ahead remains uncertain as it strives to regain its competitive edge amidst these multifaceted pressures.
TSE:7201Short
by UDIS_View
#AN022: Geopolitical Tensions and Forex Pressure Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, and today I want to talk to you about this week's latest geopolitical tensions. 1. The Russian ruble in crisis, weakening against the USD and CNY The ruble fell 1.5% against the dollar and 0.8% against the yuan, following a US ultimatum to Moscow for an immediate truce in Ukraine. FX Impact: The ruble remains vulnerable, fueling demand for safe-haven currencies such as the USD, EUR, and CHF. Crosses against the RUB show potential technical short reversals. 2. Oil Rises: First Impacts on Energy Costs Brent prices rose 3.5% to $72.50 a barrel following the announcement of possible US sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. FX Impact: Oil-related currencies such as the CAD and NOK benefit; USD risks weakness if importing countries experience inflationary pressures. 3. Euro falls monthly for the first time, dollar strengthens The euro is in the red on a monthly basis for the first time in 2025, while the dollar benefits from cautious Fed rate expectations and the EU-US trade deal perceived as biased toward Washington. Forex Impact: EUR/USD is under structural pressure. Euro-commodity correlates (EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD) are showing signs of weakness. 4. IMF warns of US tariffs and rising global inflation In its latest report, the IMF emphasized that US tariffs are slowing global growth and fueling persistent inflationary pressures. FX Impact: Increased uncertainty favors the USD and CHF. Emerging economies and commodity-linked economies (MXN, ZAR, BRL) could weaken further. 5. India Strengthens: Growing Exports and Solid Reserves India recorded a 7.2% increase in merchandise exports and maintains stable foreign exchange reserves, demonstrating macroeconomic resilience and the resilience of the rupee. Forex Impact: The INR could strengthen or consolidate at robust levels, while USD/INR pairs signal potential support. 6. Global Digital Projects and Fragmentation of Payment Systems The adoption of alternative systems to SWIFT such as mBridge or Project Agorá reflects a push toward global financial independence. Forex Impact: The euro and dollar remain dominant, but the RMB is gaining ground in Asia-Pacific countries. RMB crosses (USD/CNH, EUR/CNH) require attention, especially from a long-term perspective.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Gold - Powerful RunAfter its powerful run, gold has shown signs of fatigue, stalling near technical resistance between $3,330–$3,350 per ounce in late July. Analysts warn that while the bullish trend remains intact on a structural level, daily volatility is high and some profit-taking or consolidation could continue unless new destabilizing events emerge. Will the Rally Continue? The Bull Case Structural Demand: Multiple sources, including J.P. Morgan and other major forecast groups, predict gold’s structural bull case remains strong with average prices of $3,220–$3,675 per ounce likely through the end of 2025, and even $4,000 possible by 2026. Ongoing Uncertainty: Persistent geopolitical risks, trade disputes, and fiscal pressures are expected to maintain robust safe haven flows into gold. Central Bank and Asian Demand: Sustained buying by central banks and consumers in Asia could provide a solid floor below current levels. The Bear Case Interest Rate Dynamics: If central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, hold or increase interest rates, gold could lose momentum, higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non yielding bullion. Diminishing New Risks: Unless fresh economic or geopolitical shocks appear, further upside may be capped in the near term. Several experts predict gold may consolidate or trade sideways pending new catalysts. Speculator Flows: Rapid speculative bets could lead to sharp corrections, particularly on technical breakdowns after such a strong rally. Conclusion The gold rally of 2025 has been driven by an unusual mix of global volatility, central bank behavior, and shifting investor psychology. While prices could pause or pull back in the coming months, the fundamental supports structural demand, central bank buying, and persistent global risks, suggest that the broader gold bull cycle is not yet over, with $3,000+ likely forming the new base for gold as we look toward 2026. *NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE* #gold #safehaven #uncertainty #economy #finance #trading #indicator
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by signalgo
CFX/USDT: Two-Plan Strategy for the Next MoveHello guys. CFX just broke out of a long-term downtrend line, showing strong bullish momentum. After this sharp impulse, we're now patiently watching for the pullback zone. Here’s my plan: ✔ First plan: Looking for a reaction around the breakout retest zone (0.1500–0.1300). This is the ideal area for a bullish continuation if buyers step in early. ✔ Backup plan: If the price drops deeper, the second demand zone (around 0.1060–0.0950) is where we’d expect stronger buyer defense. Potential upside target: 0.31+, where price previously showed strong selling pressure.
Long
by melikatrader94
28
EUR/USD: ECB Pauses Amid UncertaintyBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The European Central Bank has decided to pause its rate-cutting cycle after seven consecutive reductions over the past twelve months, leaving the deposit rate at 2%, the refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.4%. This move, largely priced in by the markets, reflects the ECB’s growing caution in the face of inflation that has officially reached its 2% target but may rebound if certain fiscal and geopolitical risks materialize. Christine Lagarde’s message has been interpreted with a hawkish tone. Although both headline and core inflation have eased — the latter standing at 2.3% — the ECB warns that surprises may still occur. Massive defense spending, fiscal imbalances, and international trade tensions (such as tariffs recently signed by Trump with Japan) could disrupt the current equilibrium. Markets have reacted calmly: the EUR/USD barely moved a tenth of a percent after the decision, while implied interest rates in the money markets have lowered the odds of another rate cut in September. Now, only a symbolic 5 basis point cut is priced in at most. Technical Analysis Overall trend: Sideways to bearish in the short term; bullish in the long term. Key support levels: 1.1488: technical and psychological reference level 1.1275: recent July low Key resistance levels: 1.8291: short-term high 1.2278: next resistance level The pair attempted to break higher last week but failed, starting this week with a bearish tone. As long as the price holds above key support, the bullish trend may continue. A daily close below the first support could trigger a move toward the point of control (POC) zone at 1.0419. The daily RSI is in oversold territory at 38.95%, while the MACD shows signs of turning lower, indicating a loss of bullish momentum. There is growing speculation that the ECB's rate-cutting cycle may be over. Within the ECB, figures like Isabel Schnabel are calling for patience, while others, such as Philip Lane and Luis de Guindos, still don’t rule out a final adjustment if September projections show economic weakness. In this context, the price range that began from the point of control zone toward recent highs appears to be losing steam. Going forward, the evolution of the EUR/USD will depend on inflation trends, European fiscal policy, and the ECB’s response to tariff tensions with the United States and other global challenges as summer draws to a close. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Long
by ActivTrades
Patience Through VolatilityThere's something the market teaches you over time that no book, course, or checklist ever really prepares you for - “how to live with uncertainty” . It's amazing how quickly the market can make you doubt yourself. You can be doing everything right - following your process, managing your risk, sticking to your plans, and then volatility hits. Suddenly, nothing seems to make sense. The moves feel random. Your setups fail. Your confidence fades. You start questioning not just your trades, but yourself. You'll have stretches where patience feels like the hardest thing in the world. Watching markets whip up and down without direction, sitting on your hands when you want to trade just to feel in control again, it's exhausting in a different way. It's not the exhaustion of doing too much. It's the weight of doing nothing when your instincts scream at you to act. That’s the part most people don’t talk about. It’s not the losing trades that break most traders, it’s the feeling of being stuck. The uncertainty of not knowing when the noise will fade. The frustration of watching opportunities slip by without a clear way to take part. It’s the slow grind of sitting through volatility while your discipline quietly wears down, day after day. Patience isn’t something you can show off. Most of the time, it looks like doing nothing. And often, it feels like falling behind. Good trading isn't about finding opportunities in every move, it's about knowing when the market favours you, and when it doesn't. It's about understanding your edge and protecting it. Some environments aren't built for your system, your style, or your strengths. Volatile markets don't offer you clean setups or easy entries. They offer noise, confusion, and temptation. Most traders don’t struggle because of volatility itself, but because of the impatience it creates. They force trades. They chase moves. They try to squeeze something out of the market simply because the waiting feels unbearable. But waiting is not a weakness. Sitting still is not inaction. Restraint is a skill. Your progress won’t always be visible. It won’t always show up on a chart at the end of the day. Sometimes, progress is simply preserving your capital. Sometimes, it’s maintaining your discipline. And sometimes, it’s protecting your mindset so you’re ready when the right opportunities finally come back into focus. You have to learn to stomach the discomfort of volatility without tying your self-worth to every swing in your account. The noise always feels permanent in the moment. Doubt grows louder. You start questioning your system, your progress, and even yourself. (More on this in a future post.) That's normal. What matters is what you do with those feelings. Whether you let them push you into reckless trades just to feel something again, or whether you have the maturity to sit still, protect your capital, protect your mindset, and wait. There’s no hack for this. No shortcut. Patience is something you earn the hard way - forged in boredom, frustration, and the silence between trades. Patience isn’t about passively waiting; it’s about actively protecting yourself, your energy, your future self from the damage you could cause today. Not every moment in the market is meant for action. Not every day is meant for progress. Some days, weeks, or even months are simply about survival. Some seasons are for growth, and others are just for holding on. Knowing the difference is what keeps you in the game long enough to eventually see the rewards. The market will calm. Patterns will return. Opportunities will align. Your edge will reappear. The chaos always fades. The clarity always returns. When it does, you want to be ready - not emotionally drained, not financially wrecked, and not scrambling to recover from the mistakes impatience forced on you. But if you lose patience and start chasing just to feel active, you risk more than money. You risk undoing the very discipline you’ve worked so hard to build. Volatility will always test you. That's its nature. Patience will always protect you. That's your choice. If you’re in one of those stretches right now - high volatility, failing setups, doubt creeping in; remind yourself this is part of the process. It’s normal, and it’s not the time to force progress. Let the market burn itself out. If you can do that, you’ll find yourself ahead, not because you forced results, but because you endured the pain when others couldn’t. The rewards won’t come from predicting the next move. They’ll come from knowing you didn’t let the storm in the market create a storm within you. Trust that clarity will return. Your only job is to make sure you’re still here when it does. There’s strength in waiting. There’s wisdom in restraint.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by johntradingwick
20
S&P 500 as expensive as at the end of 2021 in valuation terms !Two weeks ago, I shared a technical analysis of the S&P 500 across all timeframes. This analysis outlines price targets for the end of 2025 based on technical and fundamental criteria. You can revisit this analysis by clicking the first chart below. WARNING: A major bullish target I previously mentioned is close to being reached—6,475 points on the S&P 500 futures contract. The market may soon enter a consolidation phase. Given this week's packed fundamentals, it's wise to start locking in your gains by moving up your stop-loss levels—especially as the S&P 500 has now returned to its end-2021 valuation peak. Click on the table below to access details on this week's significant fundamental developments: 1. Caution: The S&P 500 has reached its end-2021 valuation record! While technical market analysis is important, valuation metrics are even more so. The S&P 500 has just reached its previous valuation peak from the end of 2021—historically the starting point of the 2022 bear market. While the current macro context is different, this level could trigger a short-term market pause. Chart showing S&P 500 valuation via the CAPE Ratio (Shiller PE): 2. S&P 500 seasonality is weaker in August and bearish in September Another cautionary factor is seasonality. A statistical look at average S&P 500 performance by month highlights a weaker period in August and a typically negative one in September. In summary, technical, fundamental, and seasonal analysis all point to securing gains as we approach August/September—without questioning the underlying long-term uptrend. Chart showing S&P 500 seasonality since 1960: DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote