GBPUSD - Long after a structural shiftBased off of yesterdays analysis.
We can see we are fast approaching a very nice POI.
Will post below my mark up chart from yesterday so you can see below. Will now be sending most of my day on the 15min TF waiting for our structural shift to the upside.
Let's see how price plays out today.
Don't just dive into the trade. Wait for your structural shift first.
If I can offer any help please do let me know
Beyond Technical Analysis
Hello BullishHello Again, entered long for Compass Inc. with shown entry, SL and TP1 and TP2 points.
I see daily candle confirmation. along with expected incoming interest rate variation, I expect booming. Let's us. Compare my analysis to yours and take it on your own responsibility.
As usual, this is not a financial advice.
Give me your thoughts!
Altcoins (Market Cap) - Excluding Top 10 Coins - Inverted H&SBullish setup on the daily chart. CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS have once again made a inverted head & shoulders pattern which is a bullish reversal pattern. With the yellow chart below showing the Global M2 Liquidity index breaking out aswell. With more money in circulation, the propabilty is that more money will enter the market over time. Although, there can be latency.
For now I will trust the patterns in the chart of Others and follow it to see IF we can confirm the Inverse H&S. We have to break the neckline which should be around 310-325 B for June and July. But still, after that we need a pullback to confirm that neckline and make it support for continueation.
It´s a very interesting world right now. And much can happen. But IF this break out. It would probably be one of the most explosive bull markets to remember for a long time.. I myself are holding quality coins and tokens. Im not in memecoins, whats so ever. With the adoption happening right now in crypto I don´t believe that is the right market to be in right now.
Nothing on this profile should be interpreted as financial advice. Always do your own research and investment decisions. Im only expressing my thoughts and beliefs. Nothing else. Crypto is a risky business but It also has a lot of reward If being right. I can´t find equal yield in any other markets for now. If you know any, plz comment below =)
BINANCE:BTCUSD
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
MARKETSCOM:ETHEREUM
BINANCE:SOLUSD
BINANCE:SUIUSD
ICEUS:DXY
UBS suffers a major setbackUBS suffers a major setback: regulatory pressure hits its share price and dims buyback expectations
By Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst
UBS Group AG (Ticker SWX: UBSG.CH), Switzerland’s largest bank, faces a fresh blow. The Swiss government has proposed demanding an additional $26 billion in top-tier regulatory capital following the historic takeover of Credit Suisse. The market reaction was swift, triggering a particularly volatile session yesterday: after a brief spike, UBS shares dropped more than 7%, marking their worst day in two months—just as the bank had announced plans to distribute dividends in the coming year. Despite strong earnings and a $3 billion dividend payout plan for 2025, the market is now pricing in a potential negative impact on share buybacks in 2026 and 2027. Global banks are watching closely.
A new scenario of "Swiss regulatory slap"
The so-called “Swiss regulatory slap” aims to strengthen the national financial system, raising the CET1 ratio to 17% and requiring all foreign subsidiaries to be fully capitalized. UBS has labeled the proposal “extreme and unnecessary,” though it acknowledges that implementation would not begin before 2028. Even so, the market fears that the regulatory cost may directly affect shareholder returns.
Fundamental analysis: strong results under pressure
The Swiss bank closed the first quarter of 2025 with a net profit of $1.7 billion, thanks largely to a strong performance in its wealth management division, which brought in $32 billion in new assets—pushing total assets under management past $6.2 trillion. Return on CET1 capital reached 11.3%, though the officially reported figure stands at 9.6%, a target criticized by the regulator. UBS forecasts EPS growth of more than 25% annually over the next five years.
However, pressure to boost capital threatens to slow share buybacks and dilute mid-term profitability—especially if economic conditions tighten further. This apparent strength could be constrained if UBS is forced to prioritize capital retention over shareholder distributions, as many in the market now anticipate.
Technical analysis: chart signals warning signs
Following the announcement of new requirements, UBS’s chart is showing signs of weakness. After reaching yearly highs, the stock lost momentum and broke through key support levels. Volatility has increased significantly, and although the long-term ascending channel remains intact, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether this is a technical pullback or the beginning of a bearish trend.
From a technical standpoint, this week’s drop has placed UBS at a critical juncture. Key support lies at the 20.01 CHF lows, while the 26.41–28.79 CHF range appears to offer some short-term stability. Below that, 23.40 and 21.87 CHF serve as additional buffers against further downside. A sustained close above current levels is needed to restore the bullish outlook, which currently appears to have stalled. RSI remains in neutral territory, with no clear oversold signals, while MACD has lost its bullish crossover. The previously bullish moving average crossover that began in mid-May is now fading, showing signs of trend exhaustion. On the bright side, price profile analysis reveals a potential point of control above the current range, near 29.30 CHF. If the price manages a weak upward continuation toward that area, a rebound from the current 26.49 CHF level could unfold.
Conclusion
UBS faces a delicate moment: Switzerland’s regulatory push sends a clear message about systemic prudence but also raises doubts about the bank’s short- and mid-term appeal to shareholders. Despite its strong fundamentals and global leadership, the market remains cautious. Technically, the stock is at a crossroads: a rebound from key support could reignite optimism, but a break below 25 CHF would open the door to a gloomier scenario.
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FSLR (First Solar Inc.) | High-Conviction Recovery PlayPublished by WaverVanir International LLC | 06/12/2025
FSLR has reclaimed key structure after sweeping a weak low and entering a high-volume discount zone (~$120–135). Price has aggressively surged, forming internal BOS and CHoCH patterns—confirming a liquidity reversal and positioning for a move toward premium supply levels.
🔍 Technical Framework:
✅ Smart Money CHoCH → BOS confirms directional shift
🔵 0.618–0.786 retracement from recent impulse has been respected
🟣 Short-term equilibrium sits around $198.87 — first major resistance
🎯 Long-term target: $261.45 (aligned with strong high & 1.786 Fib extension)
📉 Risk Management & Trade Idea:
Ideal entry zone: $162–$170
Stop-loss idea: Below $148 to protect structure
TP1: $198
TP2 (stretch): $261.45
📈 Macro Catalyst Watch:
U.S. solar investment incentives (IRA policy continuation) ☀️
Semiconductor demand for solar manufacturing tech 🧠⚡
International solar adoption across EM markets
📊 Probability Outlook:
Bullish continuation to $198+: 70%
Push toward $261 zone by Q4 2025: 45%
Rejection back into $145–150: 15%
Volume confirms smart money intent. Pullbacks offer asymmetric entries if structure holds.
#FSLR NASDAQ:FSLR #SolarEnergy #SmartMoneyConcepts #WaverVanir #CleanEnergyStocks #SwingTrading #FibAnalysis #InstitutionalFlow
XAIUSDT / LONG / 12.06.25⬆️ Buy XAIUSDT, 12.06.25
💰 Entry: 0.06687
🎯 Target: 0.14819
⛔️ Stop: 0.05947
Reasons for entry:
— 1D
Price in consolidation for more than 1 day
Correction into the discount zone
— 1H
Divergence in long, exit from correction
Decrease in volumes during correction
Predominance of volumes for purchase
— 5m
Breakdown of the structure with correction into the discount zone
Strategy: medium-term, breakout
PS:
Breakdown for 5 minutes, more conservatively wait for 15 minutes for the structure breakdown.
GOLD IS MOVING UPWARD.#xauusd #gold
Hello friends, very busy this days and also no well, had little health issue. But I was watching gold closely in that days too, caught some great moves. In previous analysis I mentioned gold will move upward, unfortunately gold breaked the pattern and moved down to 3394 after that we see again upward movement started. Again a bearish flag pattern is formed but due to tension in geopolitics gold is strongly bullish also yesterday was CPI news where dollar news was negative and dollar move down due to which gold pushed upward. Today gold opening was in gap in upward.
Today I am expecting to move upward and later on it will definitely come down to fill the gap near 3355. So our main target is now 3380-3391-3402.
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USFD – US Foods has reached its zenithIn 2020, we had the action, and since 2024 the market's reaction. Just as Newton describes the universal law of Action/Reaction.
However, we see that USFD has reached the centerline of the white Fork, which coincides with the reaction high and the upper median line (U-MLH) of the yellow fork!
There is not much more to say about it.
It's a clear Short to me, and the target are always the Forks and the A/R lines. And if you have enough fantasy, GAP's are always get filled....
...they say.
WDFC - WD-40 a good shortWD-40 changed direction to the south after the 5/0 count.
Soon it will become clear whether the support from (4) holds or not.
But what is already apparent is that WDFC is struggling significantly at the trend barrier. No surprise, since this price level coincides with the natural resistance.
To me, this seems like a cheap short, even though a new, true low hasn't been reached yet.
A stop behind the resistance Zone is a fair bet.
VISA - A Pump & Dump? Help me understand please.To places where no stock price has ever gone before..
What makes VISA so special?
The credit industry is currently staring into the abyss due to massively rising payment defaults.
Why is VISA skyrocketing in price, breaking through every barrier as if they were made of butter?
I don't know, and I'm very puzzled.
What will happen if economic conditions become even more difficult and the madness we're currently experiencing fully hits, and hardly anyone can service their consumer debt anymore?
I think at that point, VISA will look like a
Pump & Dump too like many others.
I'd appreciate any info on why VISA is rising so much.
GBPJPY Hello traders. There is a sell opportunity on the GBPJPY pair. We just need to wait for the price to retest the marked level. Once that happens, it will present a good entry opportunity. You can consider joining the trade with the following targets:
🔍 Trade Details
✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell Limit
✔️ Entry Price: 195.251
✔️ Take Profit: 194.715
✔️ Stop Loss: 195.519
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven trading approach?
💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay updated on future trade setups and advanced market insights.
AMZN Struggles at Trend-Barrier and ResistancePrice is still in upward mode.
Why am I bearish?
1. Rejection in the Resistance Zone
2. Second Hagopian
3. Close below the Red Forks 1/4 Line
PTG1 is the Center-Line.
Potential further PTG's below at the 1/4 Line and then of course the L-MLH.
Playing it with Options which give me much more leeway. For a hard Stop I would put it right behind the last high above the TB.
Crude Oil Going Higher - TA and fundamentals aligneThe 0-5 count is not over yet.
Sudo 4 and 5 are still lurking.
It's good to see how the Medianline-Set cought the Highs of the swings. Likewise we can see the subborn rejection at the Center-Line at P3.
I will not trade CL to the short side, until it's clear that P4 is engraved in this Chart. Until then, I maybe shoot for some intraday or dayli trades in Crude.
Economy Facts that support a rise, up to P4:
Crude oil refineries typically switch to producing more gasoline (fuel for cars) in the spring, particularly around March to April in the United States and other northern hemisphere countries.
Seasonal demand: Warmer months mean more driving and vacation travel, increasing gasoline demand.
Regulatory change: Refineries begin producing summer-grade gasoline, which has lower volatility and is required by environmental regulations (especially in the U.S. under EPA rules).
The switch to summer-grade gasoline must be completed by June 1st for retail and May 1st for terminals and pipelines in the U.S.
In Summary:
- Switch begins: March–April
- Completed by: May (terminals), June (retail)
- This seasonal shift is often called the "refinery maintenance season" or "spring blend switch."
GC - Gold digging for a possible ShortAfter reaching WL2, we saw a sharp pullback followed by an immediate double top. Price failed to reach the centerline of the yellow fork, instead stalling at the 1/4 line.
Then came the break of the lower median line (L-MLH), a pullback to the white WL1—then the drop began.
If this market can’t push to new highs, we’ll likely fall back into the median line set. A pullback to the upper median line (U-MLH), as indicated by the red arrows, is a probable scenario.
Next stop: the white centerline.
I trade tiny. I trade with extremely high risk-reward setups. I’m fine getting stopped out all the time —because I’m hunting huge moves.
I don’t chase. No FOMO.
It’s how I sleep well, make money from trading and keep my stress level very low.
How can I use PEGs to trade Forex?Hello everyone,
On May 6, we brought you a technical update on the USD/HKD rate (US dollar VS Hong Kong dollar), as the exchange rate was testing the PEG level of 7.75, defended by the Hong Kong monetary authorities. The PEG therefore provided solid support, and the exchange rate rebounded strongly. It is now under resistance. We'd like to take this opportunity to offer you an educational update on the notion of the PEG in Forex. The link to our May 6 article is just below.
What is a PEG and why use it?
A PEG, or fixed-rate exchange rate regime, consists of a central bank maintaining its currency at a stable value against a foreign currency, often the US dollar or the euro. This system aims to reduce exchange rate volatility, and is advantageous for a country's trade and investment. It promotes economic stability, particularly in countries that are heavily dependent on a stable currency. PEGs survive thanks to the considerable reserves mobilized by monetary authorities to support the target exchange rate. PEGs can thus create technical supports or resistances that can be worth exploiting, but caution is sometimes called for, as history has shown that some central banks can abruptly stop defending a PEG.
1) Interesting PEGs currently in force
Many countries, particularly in the Middle East, Africa and the Caribbean, maintain a fixed rate against the dollar:
Bahrain (BHD), Kuwait (KWD), Oman (OMR), Qatar (QAR), Saudi Arabia (SAR), United Arab Emirates (AED), Panama (PAB). The CFA franc (XOF/XAF), used in 14 African countries, is pegged to the euro at 655.957 CFA per euro.
Some PEGs use a currency board or fluctuation band, such as the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) via a band of 7.75-7.85 HKD per USD. This is the support we shared with you on May 6, and the price rebounded strongly.
The case of the Singapore dollar (the USD/SGD rate) illustrates yet another sophisticated form of intermediate exchange rate regime. Unlike a fixed-rate policy or a free float, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) steers the value of the SGD through a regime based on a basket of weighted commercial currencies, the exact composition of which remains confidential. This system is based on an unannounced fluctuation band around a central rate, also unpublished.
2) Historical and discontinued PEGs (the landmark episode of the 1.20 PEG on the EUR/CHF rate)
The 1.20 PEG between the euro (EUR) and the Swiss franc (CHF) is one of the most significant episodes in the recent history of European exchange rate policies. Here is a detailed summary of this PEG and its spectacular abandonment in January 2015.
In September 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) set a floor of CHF 1.20 to EUR 1, i.e. a unilateral PEG (not a classic fixed rate, but a floor rate). On January 15, 2015, the SNB abandoned the PEG without notice, citing the growing divergence between the monetary policies of the ECB (falling rates) and the United States. The immediate result: a historic crash on the Forex market.
The EUR/CHF rate dropped instantly from 1.20 to around 0.85-0.90, before stabilizing at around 1.00. The Swiss franc appreciates by almost 30% in a matter of minutes, causing forex intermediaries to go bankrupt, Swiss exporting companies to suffer huge losses and, above all, retail investors who had staked a lot on preserving the CHF 1.15 support level to suffer huge trading losses.
3) The case of the Yuan exchange rate against the US dollar
Another emblematic example is that of China, whose exchange rate regime against the US dollar is not a classic PEG, but a hybrid system often referred to as managed floating. Prior to 2005, the yuan (CNY) was firmly pegged to the dollar at a fixed rate of 8.28, maintained since 1994. In 2005, Beijing decided to make this mechanism more flexible, allowing the yuan to appreciate gradually. However, in the face of the global financial crisis, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) once again froze the rate at around 6.83 until 2010. Since then, the regime has evolved towards a more sophisticated system: every morning, the central bank publishes a USD/CNY reference rate, around which the currency is allowed to fluctuate within a narrow band of plus or minus 2%. This daily fixing is based both on recent market movements and on a basket of strategic currencies. Although this system is not a formal PEG.
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Uncertainty: The Dollar's Unexpected Ally?The recent strengthening of the US dollar (USD) against the Israeli shekel (ILS) serves as a potent illustration of the dollar's enduring role as a safe-haven currency amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This trend is particularly pronounced in the context of escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Investors consistently gravitate towards the perceived stability of the dollar during periods of global unrest, leading to its appreciation against more volatile and susceptible currencies, such as the shekel.
A significant driver of this dollar demand stems from the precarious security landscape in the Middle East. Reports detailing Israel's potential operation into Iran, coupled with the United States' proactive measures like authorizing voluntary departures of military dependents and preparing for a partial evacuation of its Baghdad embassy, signal Washington's anticipation of potential Iranian retaliation. Assertive declarations from Iranian officials, explicitly threatening US military bases and claiming intelligence on Israeli nuclear facilities, further amplify regional risks, compelling investors to seek the dollar's perceived safety.
Compounding this geopolitical volatility is the stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy. Hurdles persist not only over core issues, such as uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, but also over the basic scheduling of talks, with both sides expressing diminishing confidence in a resolution. The recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting, where the US and European allies introduced a non-compliance resolution against Iran, adds another layer of diplomatic tension, threatening increased sanctions or nuclear expansion and reinforcing the perception of a volatile environment that inherently strengthens the dollar.
These escalating tensions have tangible economic repercussions, further fueling investor flight to safety. The immediate aftermath has seen a significant increase in oil prices due to anticipated supply disruptions and a notable depreciation of the Iranian rial against the dollar. Warnings from maritime authorities regarding increased military activity in critical waterways also reflect broad market apprehension. During such periods of instability, capital naturally flows into assets perceived as low-risk, making the US dollar, backed by the world's largest economy and its status as a global reserve currency, the primary beneficiary. This flight-to-safety dynamic during major regional conflicts involving key global players consistently bolsters the dollar's value.