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Nasdaq: Momentum Backed by AI, But Caution WarrantedThe Nasdaq Composite closed at 19,714.99 on June 10, extending its rally to three straight days. This rise is underpinned by three key factors: strong AI-led earnings, a supportive macro backdrop, and bullish technical patterns. 1. Fundamentals: AI Fuels Earnings Top tech firms like NVIDIA (Q1 revenue: $44B+) and Broadcom are benefiting from the ongoing AI boom, driving the index higher. Even smaller firms like Duolingo (+53% YTD) are seeing outsized gains thanks to AI integration. 2. Macroeconomics: Stable Policy, Trade Hopes The Fed’s steady rate policy (4.25–4.5%) is helping high-growth tech stocks maintain strong valuations. Meanwhile, improved U.S.–China trade sentiment has lifted investor confidence. 3. Technicals: Bullish Structure Holds The Nasdaq 100 remains in a rising channel, trading above its 20-day moving average. Key levels to watch: Resistance: 21,950–22,200 Support: 21,400 and 20,340 A breakout above 22,200 could open room for further upside. Caution: Market Breadth is Narrow Much of the rally is driven by a few mega-cap names—the “Magnificent Seven”: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, and Tesla. Their outsized influence means the index may rise even while broader market participation is weak. Key Takeaways for Traders AI-related earnings continue to fuel growth. Rate stability supports tech valuations. Market breadth is thin—watch for volatility if leadership stumbles. Use technicals to time entries, but manage risk carefully. Conclusion While the Nasdaq’s rally is fundamentally and technically sound, narrow breadth adds fragility. Stay with the trend, but monitor signs of rotation or pullback closely.
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by Jacques1000
2
Today's EUR/USD Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsThe EUR/USD is trading at the upper end of its recent range, having hit an intraday high of around 1.1440 and remaining near that level. The US Dollar strengthened in the early session due to optimism about the easing of Sino-US trade tensions, but later declined as European stocks fluctuated. Technically, the daily chart shows bulls remain in control, with the 20-day SMA rising gently at 1.1330. In the short term, the pair is range-bound around the 20-day SMA, yet to confirm a bullish breakout, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs support the overall upward trend. EUR/USD buy@1.14200-1.14300 tp:1.14600-1.14900
Long
by EvanField
Nasdaq Potential Daily ReversalIPDA Speaking + Contract closure we can see speed take place to reach BSL outside IPDA range but why whould the just past 20 days HRLR instead of moving higher with speed Because of Intermarket striction maybe to build more stops there but it would be greater in terms of liquidity efficiency to place a fake D high in here and reverse, take the liquidity lower on D HRLR and then continue higher to reach 22,672.00. The key here is: do we breach above the D SIBI or do we react from it. one of two will unlock the next 20 to 40 trading days of delivery.
CME_MINI:NQM2025
by AlessandroGiust
Did You Catch the Sweep & Shift on GBPAUD?Sometimes the market whispers its intentions before making a move — and this was one of those moments. This GBPAUD setup was built on the core principles of Candle Range Theory (CRT): Sweep of the Previous Day’s Low (PDL) Break of Structure (BOS) confirming a shift in momentum Entry retracement into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) What stood out here was the precision of the sweep and how price reacted cleanly after BOS, tapping into the FVG zone and immediately pushing toward the high-probability target. No indicators, no noise, just clean market structure and smart money behavior. The temptation to enter early was real, but the edge came from waiting for price to validate itself. A textbook example of how patience and plan adherence outweigh prediction .
Long
by Crusade1Jay
Gold Pulls Back Near 3345: Trend Analysis & Trading TipsWe have once again perfectly predicted the gold trend. Throughout Tuesday, we kept calling for short positions at the rebound level of 3335-45, which offered multiple entry opportunities. With bulls continuously facing overhead pressure, bears should continue to focus on the short-term support at 3295-3306, where the price has been oscillating since the beginning of this week. From the 4-hour chart, the overhead resistance stands near 3338-45. It is recommended to continue taking short positions based on this level and expect the bearish trend to continue. The support below focuses on the key level of 3288-3290. Overall, the price is expected to continue wide-range oscillation within this interval. The uptrend cannot be confirmed before the daily closing price breaks above and holds 3345. XAUUSD sell@3340-3350 tp:3330-3320
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EvanField
2
Gold Rebounds After Filling Gap >> Bullish Continuation in SightHello guys! Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of strength on the 4H chart after filling a key gap around the $3,290 level and bouncing off it with bullish intent. 🔹 What I see: – Price previously broke out of a broad descending channel, flipping the structure bullish – After forming a rising wedge, Gold corrected lower and filled the gap – The zone around $3,290 acted as solid support, and the current bounce suggests bulls are regaining control 📈 Outlook: If this bounce holds and momentum builds, the next area of interest is clearly marked: 🎯 First Target: $3,466 – an area of prior structure and possible supply 📍 Current Price: $3,329 🟢 Bias: Bullish (above $3,290) 🔴 Invalidated below: $3,244 This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity if the structure continues holding. Keep an eye on price action near the recent local highs for confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by melikatrader94
17
Trading the VIXOften dubbed the "fear index," the VIX gauges SPX options' implied volatility, typically rising during equity market declines and vice versa. It quantifies investor anxiety, demand for hedging, and market stress, crucial for traders and risk managers seeking to measure turbulence. The VIX calculates a constant 30-day implied volatility using SPX options expiring over the next two months. Unlike simple weighted averages of equity indices, its methodology is more complex, involving implied variance calculation for the two nearest monthly expirations across all strikes. For detailed formulas, refer to the introductory chart or visit the CBOE’s official VIX Index page. While the VIX Index itself isn’t tradable, exposure can be gained through VIX futures or exchange-traded products (ETPs) like VXX, UVXY, and SVXY. However, these instruments come with their own unique risks, pricing behaviors, and structural nuances, which can make directional VIX trading considerably more complex than it might initially appear. What You Need to Know About Implied Volatilities • In calm or uptrending markets, the volatility curve typically slopes upward (contango), indicating higher implied volatility with longer maturities. • In declining or turbulent markets, the curve can invert, sloping downward (backwardation), as shorter-term implied volatilities rise sharply. • This pattern can be observed, comparing VIX9D, VIX, and VIX3M against the SPX. In stable markets: VIX9D < VIX < VIX3M. In stressed markets, this relationship may reverse. The VIX9D and VIX3M are the 9-day respectively 3-month equivalent to the 30-day VIX. What You Need to Know About VIX Futures • When the volatility spot curve is in contango, the VIX futures curve will also slope upward. • In backwardation, the futures curve slopes downward, reflecting heightened short-term volatility and short-term volatility spikes. • While in contango, VIX futures "roll down the curve," meaning that—independent of changes in volatility—futures tend to decline in value over time. • In backwardation, the opposite occurs: futures "roll up the curve," potentially rising in value over time even without volatility changes. • VIX futures’ responsiveness to VIX Index movements – the beta of VIX futures against the VIX index - declines with longer expirations; front-month futures may react to 70-80% of VIX changes, compared to 40-60% for third or fourth-month futures. Key Consequences for Traders • Directional trading of VIX futures can be strongly influenced by the shape of the futures curve. • Contango in low-VIX environments creates strong headwinds for long VIX futures positions, caused by the “roll-down-effect”. • Conversely, backwardation in high-VIX environments creates headwinds for short positions. • These effects are more pronounced in front-month contracts, making timing (entry and exit) for directional trades critical. • There's a trade-off in directional strategies: front-month futures offer greater exposure to VIX movements but suffer more from negative roll effects. How to Trade VIX Futures • Due to these structural challenges, directional VIX futures trading is difficult and requires precision. • A more effective approach is to trade changes in the shape of the futures curve using calendar spreads (e.g., long VX1, short VX2). This reduces the impact of roll effects on individual contracts. • In low-VIX, contango conditions, a rising VIX typically leads to VX1 increasing faster than VX2, widening the VX1–VX2 spread—an opportunity for spread trading. • While VX1 may initially suffer more from roll-down than VX2, this can reverse as the VIX rises and VX1 begins to “roll up,” especially when VIX > VX1 but VX1 < VX2. • The opposite dynamic applies in high-VIX, backwardation environments. • More broadly, changes in the shape of the futures curve across the first 6–8 months can be profitably traded using calendar spreads. Roll-effects and the declining beta-curve can also be efficiently traded. How to capture the Roll-Down-Effect One of the more popular VIX-trading strategies involves capturing the roll-down effect,, while the curve is in contango. It is a positive carry strategy that is best applied during calm or uptrending market conditions. Here’s a straightforward set of guidelines to implement the Roll-Down-Carry trade: • Entry Condition: Initiate during calm market conditions, ideally when VIX9D-index is below VIX-index (though not guaranteed). • Choosing Futures: Use VX1 and VX2 for calendar spreads if VX1 has more than 8-10 trading days left; otherwise, consider VX2 and VX3. • Spread Analysis: Short VX1 and long VX2 if VX1–VIX spread is larger than VX2–VX1; otherwise, VX2 and VX3 may be suitable. • Contango Effect: VX1’s roll-down effect typically outweighs VX2’s during contango. • Relative Beta: VX1 shows higher reactivity to VIX changes compared to VX2, mimicking a slight short position on VIX. • Exit Strategy: Use spread values, take-profit (TP), and stop-loss (SL); consider exiting if VIX9D crosses over VIX. ________________________________________ Conclusion Directional trading of the VIX Index—typically through futures—demands precise timing and a good understanding of the volatility curve. This is because curve dynamics such as contango and backwardation can create significant headwinds or tailwinds, often working against a trader’s position regardless of the VIX’s actual movement. As a result, purely directional trades are not only difficult to time but also structurally disadvantaged in many market environments. A more strategic and sustainable approach is to trade calendar spreads, which involves taking offsetting positions in VIX futures of different maturities. This method helps neutralize the impact of the curve's overall slope and focuses instead on relative changes between expirations. While it doesn’t eliminate all risk, calendar spread trading significantly reduces the drag from roll effects and still offers numerous opportunities to profit from shifts in market sentiment, volatility expectations, and changes in the shape of the futures curve. What else can be done with VIX instruments VIX indices across different maturities (VIX9D, VIX, VIX3M), along with VIX futures, offer valuable insights and potential entry signals for trading SPX or SPX options. In Part 2 of the Trading the VIX series, we’ll explore how to use these tools—along with VIX-based ETPs—for structured trading strategies.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by parsifaltrading
CPI, US inflation, gold price waiting to decrease⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold (XAU/USD) drew fresh bids in Wednesday’s Asian trading, reclaiming the $3,340 level and edging back toward this week’s high. A U.S. federal appeals court decision allowing President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs to remain in force—for now—added a fresh layer of trade uncertainty and stoked safe-haven demand. Heightened geopolitical tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September further bolstered the non-yielding metal. Even so, optimism surrounding ongoing U.S.–China talks has lifted broader risk sentiment, while a mildly stronger U.S. Dollar is helping keep gold’s upside in check. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price recovered, buying power increased gradually in Asian session, approaching resistance zone 3348 ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3373- 3375 SL 3380 TP1: $3360 TP2: $3350 TP3: $3340 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3278- $3280 SL $3273 TP1: $3290 TP2: $3300 TP3: $3314 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
7
Mid-Week Outlook Update: US CPI- Trade TalksCPI day today. Scheduled to be released at 7:30 AM CT. CME:6E1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT:ZN1! ES futures edged slightly higher after positive commentary from US-China trade talks. The delegations from both sides agreed on a framework to move forward with negotiations. It is important to note that Trade War 1.0 took about two years to formalize and finalize. However, given the previous experience and the current agreement on the framework, our opinion (which is not the consensus) is that the trade deal between China and the US may be closer than what most analysts and investors might otherwise predict. Like any negotiations, China and the US have previously discussed these difficult issues and have found a way to resolve them. Although the concerns have shifted towards niche sectors, we still view baseline tariffs with some sectors seeing increased tariffs as likely. TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) acronym traders will see a tougher stance from Trump to resolve the overarching trade deficit issue with China, particularly the dumping of Chinese goods. AI, defense technology, chips, and rare earth minerals are at the center of these discussions. There will be targeted controls on exports of chips from the US and exports of rare earth minerals on the Chinese side, despite the current framework and deals agreed. In our view, these controls will be phased out until agreements are finalized, to maintain leverage and show TACO acronym backers that Trump is not “chickening out,” but rather maintaining a strong stance while negotiating trade deals with China and other countries. In our analysis, despite positive headlines, the overhanging uncertainty has not dissipated. In fact, there is clarity that President Trump is willing to take the difficult road to negotiate from an apparent position of strength. Would this result in extension of trade deadlines or temporary increase in tariffs followed by an extension of deadlines? This remains to be seen! If May CPI comes in lower than expectations, this will be a nudge in the direction that tariffs are not translating into higher inflation. We may see a rally in index futures. On the contrary, any increase in CPI above the previous 2.3% YoY increase will be seen as tariff-induced inflation. In our analysis, given lower energy prices, rent inflation stabilizing at levels last seen in late 2021, and services inflation in the US trending lower from the peak in January 2023, we are seeing embedded inflation in the prior two months and this may remain sticky in today’s release. However, any stability with lower energy prices seen in the prior month will point to a lower inflation print overall. Comment with your favorite trade idea from our past trade ideas and what you would like to see more of.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by EdgeClear
NZDCADNZDCAD is showing signs of bearish continuation after retesting a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the higher timeframe. Price previously broke down, leaving behind an imbalance, and has now retraced to fill that gap. The reaction from this level suggests the FVG acted as a strong supply zone, with sellers stepping in to defend it. Additionally, the rejection candle formed at the FVG aligns with a lower high structure, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. If momentum continues, we could see further downside targeting recent lows or liquidity resting below previous swing points.
Short
by mwananukachabota