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Did Gold Just Sweep the Low for a Reversal?After a clean sweep of the Previous Day’s Low (PDL) on XAUUSD, price reacted sharply, grabbing liquidity and signaling a possible shift in order flow. This forms the first pillar of my CRT model (Candle Range Theory) : Sweep, Break, Retest . Following the sweep, we observed a strong Break of Structure (BOS) , indicating bullish intent. We will then wait for price to retrace back to a FVG at a discount, and then execute the trade. The stop loss was logically placed just beneath the PDL sweep and FVG zone, protecting against deeper liquidity hunts. Take profit targets the next high where resting buy-side liquidity is likely to be engineered. This setup checks all the boxes: Sweep of PDL ✅ BOS confirming shift ✅ FVG retest for refined entry ✅ Solid RR and clean narrative ✅ This is a great example of how patience and a structured approach can create high-probability setups.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Crusade1Jay
Bearishness Persist in Soybeans Despite Rebound HopesSince mid-May, soybean prices have traded sideways, whipsawed by weather shifts, trade tensions, and fluctuating demand cues. Soybean prices began rallying on May 19, driven by optimism over U.S. trade deals, crop damage in Argentina from heavy rains, and strong soybean oil prices. However, the momentum soon faded as U.S.-EU trade tensions resurfaced. Prices came under further pressure from weak export demand, rising competition from South America, and bearish U.S. biofuel mandates. By 02/Jun, soybeans had fallen to a six-week low, weighed down by favorable U.S. crop weather, improved Brazilian production forecasts, and renewed U.S.-China tensions. Over the last week, Bean prices inched higher, supported by firmer soybean oil prices and hopes of renewed US-China trade talks. However, sentiment remains cautious amid policy uncertainty and robust planting progress. According to USDA data , 84% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of 1/Jun, above the five-year average of 80%. TECHNICALS SIGNAL PERSISTENT BEARISH TREND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF A REVERSAL On 2/Jun, soybean futures formed a bearish death cross, signalling potential downside momentum. Although prices have since rebounded, bearishness persists with the 21-day MA acting as a strong resistance. The MACD reflects ongoing but easing bearish momentum, while the RSI sits just below its 14-day average, close to the neutral zone. These indicators suggest that price momentum is currently subdued. OPTIONS DATA POINT TO MIXED SENTIMENT For the week ending 27/May, Managed Money’s net long positioning in soybean futures surged by 190%, reflecting a 12.9% gain in longs and a 10% fall in shorts. Despite the recent pullback in futures, skew (Up Var minus Down Var) has reached a YTD high, signalling higher demand for calls relative to puts. Source: CME CVOL Open Interest (“OI”) trends over the past week point to increased bearish positioning, with near-term contracts showing a notable rise in put OI. Longer-dated contracts reflect a similar pattern, although contracts expiring in July (OZSN5) and September (OZSU5) were notable exceptions. Source: CME QuikStrike HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Despite some bullish drivers (US-China trade talks & Argentina crop risks), bearish forces prevail. These include strong US bean planting, improved Brazil forecasts, policy uncertainty, and rising put open interest in the near term. Traders can express this view using CME Micro Soybean Futures, which are sized at one-tenth of standard contracts. This allows for a cost-effective way to express a short-term bullish stance. Considering these dynamics, this paper posits a short position on CME Micro Soybean August futures (MZSQ25, expiring on 25/Jul). • Entry: USc 1,048.5/Bushel • Potential Profit: USc 1,027/Bushel (1,048.5 – 1,027 = 21.5) x 500/100 = USD 107.5 • Stop-Loss: USc 1,062/Bushel (1,048.5 – 1,062 = -13.5) x 500/100 = USD 67.5 • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.6x In collaboration with CME Group, TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition. Through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real-time market data, new and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community. The competition lasts another 21 days. Please join the other 42,700 participants who are actively honing their trading skills using virtual money. Click here to learn more. #TheFuturesLeap #Microfutures MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER, the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:MZSQ2025Short
by mintdotfinance
#004 Forex: Recovery Week and Macro Expectations The week just ended marked a tactical turning point in global financial markets. After the correction in April and the instability in May, investors seem to be starting to bet on a return to stability, but caution remains a must. Let's look in detail at the main events and scenarios that marked this week in the stock markets and in the world of forex. 📈 Global stock markets: technical rebound or inversion? In the United States, the Nasdaq was the protagonist of a recovery supported by tech and AI stocks. After weeks of selling, some key sectors such as semiconductors and gold led the recovery. In Asia, Hong Kong (+0.9%) and emerging markets showed strength, also driven by the rebound in the MSCI EM index. In Europe, stock markets benefited from a more relaxed climate and an ECB that is gradually becoming more accommodating. 💱 Forex: Dollar Weak, Euro Consolidating The US dollar has been struggling all week, weighed down by dovish macro data expectations and rising geopolitical tensions. EUR/USD has shown signs of consolidating above 1.08, with room for further bullish extensions if dollar sentiment deteriorates further. Also of note is the Russian Central Bank’s rate cut, which had little effect on EM currencies but signals a global return to looser monetary policies. 📆 Busy Macro Week: Key Data Coming Soon Traders are eagerly awaiting US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and the Fed meeting on June 12. These events will be key to the future direction of US monetary policy. In parallel, China’s CPI and PPI will complete a highly relevant macro picture for FX trading. 🌍 Geopolitics and volatility: risk remains high Trade instability, with new statements from Trump, has caused some pressure on Asian stock markets. The "triple witching day" (simultaneous expiration of options and derivatives) at the end of June is approaching, which could amplify volatility especially in US markets. 📌 In summary: what to watch now Stocks: is the rebound technical or the start of a new trend? The answer will depend on US data and the Fed's response. Forex: watch out for the dollar's structural weakness, with the euro likely to remain the leading currency of the month. Volatility: likely spikes around the technical expirations of mid/late June. Outlook: mixed context, with tactical opportunities but still high risk. 📍 Conclusion Markets are looking for a balance, but it is a fragile balance. Incoming macro data and global political tensions will act as catalysts in the next two weeks. For those trading stocks or forex, it’s time to stay informed, flexible and disciplined.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
BA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10🧾 BA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10 Bias: Moderately Bearish Timeframe: 5 trading days Catalysts: Short-term exhaustion signals despite positive news Trade Type: Single-leg PUT option 🧠 Model Summary Table Model Direction Strike Entry Price Target Stop Loss Confidence Grok Bullish 217.50C $0.79 $1.19 $0.40 65% Claude Bearish 205.00P $0.95 $1.50–2.00 $0.50 72% Llama Bearish 205.00P $0.95 $1.14 $0.48 70% Gemini Bearish 202.50P $0.55 $1.00–1.10 $0.25 65% DeepSeek Bearish 205.00P $0.95 $1.90 $0.47 60% ✅ Consensus: Moderately Bearish 📉 Setup: Tactical mean-reversion play from overbought RSI and MACD divergence ⚠️ Outlier: Grok sees bullish continuation toward $217.50 (minority view) 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap Short-Term: 5-min RSI ~88 (overbought), price hugging upper Bollinger Band Daily Chart: MACD bearish divergence or slowing momentum Sentiment: Mixed headlines—China aircraft deliveries positive, but max pain at $207.50 acts as gravitational pull VIX: Low (≈16.8), suggesting limited volatility but a stable short bias ✅ Final Trade Recommendation Parameter Value Instrument BA Strategy Weekly naked put Strike $205.00 Entry Price $0.95 (ask) Profit Target $1.50 (≈58% gain) Stop-Loss $0.50 (≈47% premium loss) Size 1 contract (risk ≤2% of account) Entry Timing At market open Confidence 70% 🎯 Rationale: Consensus expects BA to retrace from short-term overbought condition back toward max pain zone (~$207.50). Four out of five models favor put option setups. ⚠️ Risk Factors A strong gap above $211.50 invalidates short thesis → cut immediately Strong fundamentals (China fleet growth, aviation sector strength) could support further upside VIX staying low = slow downside → puts may decay rapidly Use limit order on open to manage slippage risk 📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT 🎯 Instrument: BA 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 205.00 💵 Entry Price: 0.95 🎯 Profit Target: 1.50 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.50 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13 📏 Size: 1 contract 📈 Confidence: 70% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-08 16:10:44 EDT
NYSE:BAShort
by quantsignals
1
TEM Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10🧾 TEM Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10 Bias: Moderately Bullish Timeframe: 5 trading days Catalysts: Positive fundamentals, stable macro, bullish option flow Trade Type: Single-leg CALL option 🧠 Model Summary Table Model Direction Strike Entry Price Target Stop Loss Confidence Grok Bullish 63.00C $2.45 $3.68 $1.72 65% Claude Bullish 65.00C $1.70 $3.00 $0.85 72% Llama Bullish 63.00C $2.30 $2.76 $2.07 70% Gemini Bullish 68.00C $1.05 $2.00 $0.50 65% DeepSeek Bullish 63.00C $2.40 $4.80 $1.20 70% ✅ Consensus: Moderately Bullish 📈 Core Setup: Trend continuation after short-term consolidation ⚠️ Outlier: Gemini sees breakout only above $68, targeting aggressive upside 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap Trend: Daily uptrend intact across all models; short-term consolidation on 5m Momentum: Mixed MACD and RSI readings—daily bullish, short-term still cooling Sentiment: Falling VIX + positive earnings/news cycle favor upside Options Flow: Max pain at $62 provides cushion; calls dominating OI above $63 ✅ Final Trade Recommendation Parameter Value Instrument TEM Strategy Weekly naked call Strike $65.00 Entry Price $1.80 (ask) Profit Target $3.00 (~67% gain) Stop-Loss $0.90 (~50% risk) Size 1 contract Entry Timing At market open Confidence 72% 🎯 Rationale: $65 call offers balanced leverage, high open interest (799), and aligns with Claude’s mid-week breakout thesis. Models converge on a bullish lean with manageable risk-reward. ⚠️ Risk Factors 5m chart bearish MACD may delay breakout Price may hover near max pain ($62) early in week Unexpected legal or macro news could reverse sentiment Liquidity risk in thin spreads—use limit orders for entry/exit 📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT 🎯 Instrument: TEM 🔀 Direction: CALL (LONG) 🎯 Strike: 65.00 💵 Entry Price: 1.80 🎯 Profit Target: 3.00 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.90 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13 📏 Size: 1 contract 📈 Confidence: 72% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-08 16:04:57 EDT
NASDAQ:TEMLong
by quantsignals
BABA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10🧾 BABA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10 Bias: Moderately Bearish Timeframe: 5 trading days Catalysts: Weakening momentum, max pain gravity, fading upside catalysts Trade Type: Single-leg PUT option 🧠 Model Summary Table Model Direction Strike Entry Price Target Stop Loss Confidence Grok Bullish 125.00C $0.77 $1.16 $0.385 65% Claude Bearish 117.00P $1.75 $2.63 $1.23 65% Llama Bearish 119.00P $2.85 $3.42 $2.28 65% Gemini Bullish 125.00C $0.77 $1.35 $0.38 68% DeepSeek Bearish 114.00P $0.79 $1.19 $0.55 70% ✅ Consensus: Moderately Bearish 📉 Core Setup: Downside pullback toward $115–118 support zone ⚠️ Outlier: Gemini and Grok see potential call upside on sentiment rebound 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap Trend: Mixed structure—price stuck between declining intraday EMAs and longer-term resistances Momentum: Bearish MACD and RSI signals across M5 & daily on 3/5 models Sentiment: VIX 16.8 (neutral), Max Pain at $118 = gravitational anchor Options Flow: Heavy call OI near $124–125 (potential cap); Put flows dominate below $118 ✅ Final Trade Recommendation Parameter Value Instrument BABA Strategy Single-leg PUT (weekly) Strike $115.00 Entry Price $1.13 (ask) Profit Target $1.70 (~50% gain) Stop-Loss $0.79 (~30% loss) Size 1 contract Entry Timing At market open Confidence 65% 🎯 Rationale: Favorable risk-reward in short-dated put to capture downside drift toward $115 zone. Models align around a modest pullback, driven by technical weakness and lack of fresh bullish catalysts. ⚠️ Risk Factors Sharp bounce from short-term oversold RSI Sudden news catalyst (AI/cloud deal, macro relief) could fuel call side squeeze Weekly options decay accelerates sharply by Thursday Max pain shift or volatility compression could mute movement 📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT 🎯 Instrument: BABA 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 115.00 💵 Entry Price: 1.13 🎯 Profit Target: 1.70 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.79 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13 📏 Size: 1 contract 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-08 23:55:22 EDT
NYSE:BABAShort
by quantsignals
2
Gold Price XAU/USD: Downtrend and OpportunitiesGold FX:XAUUSD Price XAU/USD Analysis Today: Downtrend Signals, What Opportunities for Investors? Updated at 13:57 on 09/06/2025 (+07) - The 1-hour trading view chart for the XAU/USD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) pair indicates that gold prices are experiencing a significant decline, drawing attention from investors. Let’s dive into a detailed analysis of the current trend and short-term outlook based on the latest data. Current Gold Price and Recent Movements According to the chart, the spot gold price is currently fluctuating around 3.322.44 USD/ounce, down 0.24% in the latest trading session (as of 13:56 UTC-7). The highest point in the past hour reached 3.323.020 USD, while the lowest was 3.312.570 USD. A clear downtrend began from a local peak near 3.344.70 USD, with dominant red candlesticks reflecting strong selling pressure. Technical Analysis Support and Resistance: The nearest support level is around 3.300 USD, where the price may find buying interest to rebound. The next key resistance level is 3.350 USD, a threshold that the price has failed to break in the recent session. If selling pressure persists, a deeper support level could be 3.280 USD. Trading Volume: Trading volume spiked during the decline, particularly between 6 AM and 7 AM (UTC), indicating significant participation from investors offloading their positions. Market Momentum: The price is currently below the short-term moving average, signaling a bearish trend in the short term. However, if the price holds above 3.300 USD, it could open opportunities for a recovery toward 3.330-3.350 USD. Factors Influencing Gold Prices Recent U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report, may be the primary driver behind the pressure on gold prices. A stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields have reduced gold’s appeal. Additionally, global market sentiment, including geopolitical factors and the upcoming CPI data release on June 11, 2025, will also impact the next trend. Outlook and Investment Suggestions Short-Term: With the current decline, investors might consider buying in the support zone of 3.300 USD if reversal signals appear (e.g., a strong bullish candlestick or increased buying volume). However, caution is advised if the price breaks below 3.280 USD. Long-Term: The bullish trend for gold remains intact due to demand from central banks and its role as a safe-haven asset. This could be an opportunity to accumulate if the price corrects further. Conclusion The XAU/USD gold price is facing downward pressure in today’s trading session, but the 3.300 USD support level is a critical point to watch closely. Investors should combine technical analysis with economic news to make informed decisions. Stay updated regularly to seize opportunities in this volatile market! SEO Keywords: Gold price today, XAU/USD analysis, gold price forecast 2025, gold investment, gold support and resistance, latest gold news.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
MSFT Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-09🧾 MSFT Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-09 Bias: Moderately Bearish Timeframe: 5–6 days Catalysts: Overbought RSI, weakening momentum, technical divergences Trade Type: Single-leg put option 🧠 Model Summary Table Model Direction Strike Entry Price Target Stop Loss Confidence Grok Bearish 457.50P $0.76 $1.14 $0.19 65% Claude Bearish 460.00P $1.03 $1.55 $0.72 70% Gemini Bearish 457.50P $0.75 $1.20 $0.38 65% DeepSeek Bearish 470.00P $3.65 $5.48 $2.56 70% Llama Slightly Bullish 472.50C $3.15 $3.78 $2.83 68% ✅ Consensus: Short-term bearish trade setup 📉 Core Setup: Reversal from overbought with MACD divergence ⚠️ Outlier: Llama prefers bullish call due to longer-term trend strength 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap Trend: Overextended rally, RSI (78.2) = overbought Momentum: MACD shows bearish divergence on daily; 5-min weak Sentiment: VIX ~16.7 = stable but cautious; mixed AI news & max pain at $460 Max Pain: $460 implies gravitational pull; current price may pull back Volatility: Option premiums reflect narrow range, but directional edge favors downside ✅ Final Trade Recommendation Parameter Value Instrument MSFT Strategy Single-leg PUT (weekly) Strike $457.50 Entry Price $0.76 (ask) Profit Target $1.22 (~60% gain) Stop-Loss $0.38 (50% premium loss) Size 1 contract Entry Timing At market open Confidence 65% 🎯 Rationale: Near-term exhaustion of upside, short-term technical reversal, and profit-taking setup with favorable risk/reward. ⚠️ Risk Checklist Strong trend continuation could invalidate pullback thesis Low VIX may reduce option gamma/velocity Sector-wide positive catalyst (AI or rate cuts) can cause rapid rebound Watch for closes above 10-EMA (~$461) to exit early if invalidated 📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT 🎯 Instrument: MSFT 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 457.50 💵 Entry Price: 0.76 🎯 Profit Target: 1.22 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.38 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13 📏 Size: 1 contract 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-09 01:44:06 EDT
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by quantsignals
1
NBIS Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-09🧾 NBIS Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-09 Bias: Moderately to Strongly Bullish Timeframe: 3–4 weeks Catalysts: AI sector strength + institutional buying + momentum breakout Trade Type: Long equity (shares) 🧠 Model Summary Table Model Direction Entry Price Stop-Loss Target Price Risk Size Confidence DS Long $48.28 $44.50 $54.00 1% of account 70% LM Long $48.50 $46.08 $55.75 ≤5% of account 80% GK Long $48.28 $43.80 $57.90 2% on $10K 70% GM Long $48.28 $43.80 $57.90 2% on $10K 75% CD Short $48.30 $50.50 $42.75 2–3% of account 72% ✅ Consensus: Long bias (4 out of 5) 📈 Core Setup: Trend-following continuation play ⚠️ Outlier: CD favors a tactical short due to overbought RSI 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap Trend: Strong bullish across M30 / Daily / Weekly timeframes Momentum: RSI Daily (82.9) & Weekly (71.9) → overbought Volume: 199% above average = strong institutional interest Volatility: VIX ~16.8 = low risk-on environment Narrative: AI/Nvidia tailwinds + hedge fund accumulation ✅ Final Trade Recommendation Parameter Value Instrument NBIS Strategy LONG (shares) Entry Price $48.28 Stop-Loss $44.50 Take-Profit $55.75 Holding Period 3–4 weeks Size 44 shares (on $10K portfolio, ~2% risk) Confidence 75% Entry Timing Market open 🎯 Rationale: Riding strong institutional buying, macro tailwinds, and multi-timeframe bullish trend. ⚠️ Risk Checklist Overbought RSI may lead to temporary consolidation Bollinger upper band breakout suggests volatility ahead Sentiment cooling around AI/Nvidia could slow rally Broader market volatility (e.g., VIX spike > 20) could reverse trend 📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT 🎯 Instrument: NBIS 📈 Direction: LONG 💵 Entry Price: 48.28 🛑 Stop Loss: 44.50 🎯 Take Profit: 55.75 📊 Size: 44 shares 💪 Confidence: 75% ⏰ Entry Timing: open
NASDAQ:NBISLong
by quantsignals
ACHR Weekly Trade Plan – 2025-06-09🧾 ACHR Weekly Trade Plan – 2025-06-09 Bias: Moderately to Strongly Bullish Timeframe: 1 week Catalysts: eVTOL momentum + hedge fund exposure + technical breakout Trade Type: Long call, short-duration swing 🧠 Model Summary Table Model Direction Entry Price Strike Option Type Target Stop Confidence Grok Moderately Bullish $0.34 $10.50 Call $0.51 (+50%) $0.15 65% Claude Moderately Bullish $0.34 $10.50 Call $0.51 (+50%) $0.20 68% Gemini Moderately Bullish ~$0.34 $10.50 Call $0.60 (+75%) $0.17 70% Llama Cautious Bullish $0.60 $10.00 Call $0.90 (+50%) $0.30 70% DeepSeek Strongly Bullish $0.34 $10.50 Call $0.68 (+100%) $0.17 80% ✅ Consensus: Buy calls targeting $10.50 breakout 📈 Common Trade Theme: Bullish price action supported by falling VIX and positive news ⚠️ Minor Divergence: Strike choice ($10.00 vs $10.50); risk tolerance (41–50% loss) 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap Trend: Price above 5-min/daily EMAs, bullish MACD Momentum: RSI overbought on 5-min but neutral daily Volatility: VIX falling (low-risk macro backdrop) Sector Sentiment: Positive eVTOL headlines + hedge fund inflows Options Positioning: Max Pain at $10.50; high call OI above current price ✅ Final Trade Recommendation Parameter Value Instrument ACHR (Archer Aviation) Strategy CALL (LONG) Strike 10.50 Entry Price $0.34 (ask) Profit Target $0.51 (≈50% gain) Stop-Loss $0.20 (≈41% loss) Expiry 2025-06-13 (Weekly) Size 1 contract Confidence 70% Entry Timing Market open 🎯 Rationale: Short-term continuation following bullish breakout and sector strength. ⚠️ Risk Checklist RSI overbought on short-term may trigger pullback before continuation Resistance levels $10.20–$10.44 may create rejection Weekly options decay fast—exit within 1–3 days ideal Macro/VIX reversal could quickly change risk appetite 📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT 🎯 Instrument: ACHR 🔀 Direction: CALL (LONG) 💵 Entry Price: 0.34 🎯 Profit Target: 0.51 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.20 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 70% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-09 00:29:19 EDT
NYSE:ACHRLong
by quantsignals
VZ Weekly Trade Plan – 2025-06-08🧾 VZ Weekly Trade Plan – 2025-06-08 Bias: Moderately Bearish Timeframe: 1 week Catalysts: Dividend optimism vs. MACD weakness Trade Type: Short-term directional put 🧠 Model Summary Table Model Direction Entry Strike Option Type Target Stop Confidence Grok Moderately Bullish $0.35 (ask) $44.00 Call $0.70 (100%) $0.175 65% Claude Moderately Bearish $0.52 (ask) $44.00 Put $0.75–0.78 $0.31 72% Llama Slightly Bearish $0.29 (ask) $43.50 Put $0.435 (50%) Collapse >$44.50 68% Gemini Moderately Bearish ~$0.28 (ask) $43.50 Put $0.45–0.50 $0.18 60% DeepSeek Moderately Bullish $0.35 (ask) $44.00 Call $0.70 (100%) $0.18 65% ✅ Consensus Bias: Slight Bearish Lean (3 of 5 models bearish) ⚠️ Key Disagreements: Directional outlook (calls vs. puts); strike selection; volatility interpretation 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Summary Trend: VZ is above key EMAs on multiple timeframes Momentum: RSI neutral (~54); MACD mixed/bearish on intraday; bulls see recovery Volatility: VIX ~16.8 (low), supporting slow-paced price action Max Pain: $43.50 (anchor magnet); current price ~ $43.80 Sentiment: Positive dividend news supports bulls; short-term MACD and resistance (44.12) support bears ✅ Final Trade Recommendation Parameter Value Instrument VZ (Verizon) Strategy PUT (SHORT) Strike 43.50 Entry Price $0.29 (ask) Profit Target $0.45 (≈55% gain) Stop-Loss $0.18 (≈38% loss) Expiration 2025-06-13 (Weekly, 5 DTE) Size 1 contract Confidence 67% Entry Timing Market open 🎯 Rationale: Max pain magnet + weak MACD on multiple intraday timeframes provide opportunity for a quick pullback toward support. ⚠️ Key Risks Dividend strength may act as a floor near $43.50–$43.60 Break above $44.00 invalidates bearish trade thesis Gamma risk: late-week price stalling can crush premium Low volatility could slow down option movement → be time-sensitive 📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT 🎯 Instrument: VZ 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 💵 Entry Price: 0.29 🎯 Profit Target: 0.45 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.18 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 67% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-08 23:35:04 EDT
NYSE:VZShort
by quantsignals
Oil Supported by U.S.-China TalksBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Oil prices continue to show strength after gaining more than 4% last week, despite a slight correction during Monday’s Asian trading session. Brent futures are hovering around $66.43 per barrel, while WTI is trading at $64.52. This price stability reflects the market's anticipation ahead of key trade talks between the United States and China taking place today in London. Negotiation Context U.S. officials Scott Bessent (Treasury) and Howard Lutnick (Commerce) will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to address sensitive topics such as tariffs, export restrictions, and access to strategic technologies. The uncertainty generated by these ongoing trade tensions has been a major factor pressuring crude prices in recent months, particularly affecting European economies most exposed to foreign trade, such as Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. China’s Economic Data At the same time, European investors are closely watching China’s upcoming economic data. The inflation and trade figures for May, scheduled for release today, may provide a clear signal of the strength of domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy. A weak China typically translates into lower demand for raw materials, directly impacting oil prices and, consequently, energy-driven inflation across Europe. OPEC+ Production Additionally, pressure on oil prices has been amplified by the steady increase in production from OPEC+ so far in 2025. This factor has kept expectations for short-term price rallies in check, especially if Chinese data fails to meet forecasts. Relevance for Europe For Europe, these developments are far from being external affairs. The continent's economy—highly dependent on global trade and energy imports—remains particularly sensitive to the outcome of the negotiations. An improvement in trade relations between the two superpowers could ease pressure on global supply chains and, in turn, boost both industrial and energy demand across Europe. Brent Technical Analysis As of April 3, Brent crude broke downward out of a long-standing range between $94.5 and $70.45, rebounding twice off the $58.16 lows during April and May. Since then, the price of oil has been steadily recovering, approaching the $66 level. If current pricing drives the asset back into the previous range, we could see a breakout through the lower band and a potential recovery toward the former control zone around $72.5, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The current fluctuation zone spans roughly 25%, leaving considerable room for value recovery. The RSI currently indicates overbought conditions at 59.02%, correcting downward throughout today’s Asian session after peaking at 71.55% on Friday. Conclusion In summary, Europe is strategically focused on the London negotiations. The outcome could mark a turning point in global commodity flows and lay the groundwork for greater energy market stability across the continent in the second half of the year. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTLong
by ActivTrades
Heatwaves and Wheat: How Temperature Shocks Hit Prices🌾 Section 1: The Wheat–Weather Connection—Or Is It? If there’s one crop whose success is often tied to the weather forecast, it’s wheat. Or so we thought. For decades, traders and analysts have sounded the alarm at the mere mention of a heatwave in key wheat-producing regions. The logic? Excessive heat during the growing season can impair wheat yields by disrupting pollination, shortening the grain-filling period, or damaging kernel development. A tightening supply should lead to price increases. Simple enough, right? But here’s where the story takes an unexpected turn. What happens when we actually analyze the data? Does heat reliably lead to price spikes in the wheat futures market? The short answer: not exactly. In fact, our statistical tests show that temperature may not have the consistent, directional impact on wheat prices that many traders believe it does. And that insight could change how you think about risk, seasonality, and the role of micro contracts in your wheat trading strategy. 📈 Section 2: The Economics of Wheat—And Its Role in the Futures Market Wheat isn’t just a breakfast staple—it’s the most widely grown crop in the world. It’s cultivated across North America, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, China, and India, making it a truly global commodity. Because wheat is produced and consumed everywhere, its futures markets reflect a wide array of influences: weather, geopolitics, global demand, and speculative positioning. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), operated by CME Group, is the main venue for wheat futures trading. It offers two primary wheat contracts: Standard Wheat Futures (ZW) Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 cent per bushel (0.0025) has a $12.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $1,700 (subject to change) Micro Wheat Futures (MZW) Contract Size: 500 bushels (1/10th the size of the standard contract) Tick Size: 0.0050 per bushel has a $2.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $170 (subject to change) These micro contracts have transformed access to grain futures markets. Retail traders and smaller funds can now gain precise exposure to weather-driven moves in wheat without the capital intensity of the full-size contract. 🌡️ Section 3: Weather Normalization—A Smarter Way to Measure Impact When analyzing weather, using raw temperature values doesn’t paint the full picture. What’s hot in Canada might be normal in India. To fix this, we calculated temperature percentiles per location over 40+ years of historical weather data. This gave us three weekly categories: Below 25th Percentile (Low Temp Weeks) 25th to 75th Percentile (Normal Temp Weeks) Above 75th Percentile (High Temp Weeks) Using this approach, we grouped thousands of weeks of wheat futures data and examined how price returns behaved under each condition. This way, we could compare a “hot” week in Ukraine to a “hot” week in the U.S. Midwest—apples to apples. 🔄 Section 4: Data-Driven Temperature Categories and Wheat Returns To move beyond anecdotes and headlines, we then calculated weekly percent returns for wheat futures (ZW) for each of the three percentile-based categories. What we found was surprising. Despite common assumptions that hotter weeks push wheat prices higher, the average returns didn’t significantly increase during high-temperature periods. However, something else did: volatility. In high-temp weeks, prices swung more violently — up or down — creating wider return distributions. But the direction of these moves lacked consistency. Some heatwaves saw spikes, others fizzled. This insight matters. It means that extreme heat amplifies risk, even if it doesn't create a reliable directional bias. Traders should prepare for greater uncertainty during hot weeks — an environment where tools like micro wheat futures (MZW) are especially useful. These contracts let traders scale exposure and control risk in turbulent market conditions tied to unpredictable weather. 🔬 Section 5: Statistical Shock—The t-Test Revelation To confirm our findings, we ran two-sample t-tests comparing the returns during low vs. high temperature weeks. The goal? To test if the means of the two groups were statistically different. P-Value (Temp Impact on Wheat Returns): 0.354 (Not Significant) Conclusion: We cannot reject the hypothesis that average returns during low and high temp weeks are the same. This result is counterintuitive. It flies in the face of narratives we often hear during weather extremes. However, our volatility analysis (using boxplots) showed that variance in returns increases significantly during hotter weeks, making them less predictable and more dangerous for leveraged traders. 🧠 Section 6: What Traders Can Learn from This This analysis highlights a few key lessons: Narratives aren’t always backed by data. High heat doesn’t always mean high prices. Volatility increases during weather stress. That’s tradable, but not in the way many assume. Risk-adjusted exposure matters. Micro wheat futures (MZW) are ideal for navigating weather-driven uncertainty. Multi-factor analysis is essential. Weather alone doesn’t explain price behavior. Global supply chains, speculative flows, and other crops’ performance all play a role. This article is part of a growing series where we explore the relationship between weather and agricultural futures. From corn to soybeans to wheat, each crop tells a different story. Watch for the next release—we’ll be digging deeper into more effects and strategies traders can use to capitalize on weather. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.sweetlogin.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZW1!Education
by traddictiv
#nifty - 1 hour time frameAll these arrows show strong buyer reactions from support zones (mostly around 24,430–24,590). The chart indicates a bullish bias at lower levels, but the price is still struggling to break the falling channel trendline (which acts as resistance). A break above the purple line (24,760) and the upper trendline would confirm a trend reversal or breakout. NSE:NIFTY Only for educational purposes. This content is not a recommendation to buy and sell. Not SEBI REGISTRAR. @Tradeforecast #NIFTY #BANKNIFTY #SENSEX #STOCKMARKET
NSE:NIFTYLong
by thetradeforecast
2
Can Gold Reach $3400 This Week?📊 Market Overview: On June 4, 2025, gold prices (XAU/USD) hovered around $3,370/oz after rebounding from the $3,333 level. However, selling pressure emerged as prices approached the strong resistance zone near $3,392–$3,400. Ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S.–China trade policies and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut continue to support safe-haven demand for gold. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance: $3,392 – $3,400 • Nearest Support: $3,333 – $3,320 • EMA 09: Price is currently above the 09 EMA, indicating a short-term uptrend. • Candlestick Patterns / Volume / Momentum: The RSI on the H1 timeframe is at 59, suggesting bullish momentum remains but is approaching overbought territory. 📌 Outlook: Gold may experience a short-term pullback if it fails to break above the $3,400 resistance level and profit-taking intensifies. 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: SELL XAU/USD at: $3,392 – $3,400 o 🎯 TP: $3,372 o ❌ SL: $3,410 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,320 – $3,333 o 🎯 TP: $3,352 o ❌ SL: $3,310
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mian-FXSignals
2
Platinum's Quiet Ascent: What Drives Its New Value?Platinum, often operating in the shadow of gold, has recently experienced a significant surge in value, reaching multi-year highs and capturing considerable investor attention. This resurgence is not arbitrary; it stems from a complex interplay of industrial demand, tightening supply, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and a notable shift in investment sentiment. Understanding these underlying forces becomes crucial for investors seeking to decipher the trajectory of this vital industrial precious metal. A primary catalyst for platinum's price rally is its strong industrial utility, particularly within the automotive sector, where it remains indispensable for catalytic converters. While the rise of battery electric vehicles presents a long-term shift, the robust growth in hybrid vehicle production continues to sustain demand. Critically, the market faces persistent physical deficits, with supply consistently falling short of demand for the past two years, a trend projected to continue into 2025. Mine output struggles due to disruptions in key producing regions, such as South Africa and Zimbabwe, and secondary supply from recycling has proven insufficient to bridge the growing gap. Geopolitics and strategic investment further amplify platinum's upward trajectory. China has emerged as a pivotal market, with a sharp rebound in demand as consumers increasingly favor platinum for both jewelry and investment amidst record gold prices. This strategic pivot by the world's largest consumer market is reshaping global platinum price discovery, supported by China's initiatives to develop new trading ecosystems and futures contracts. Concurrently, renewed investor confidence is evident in growing inflows into platinum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and robust physical buying, with anticipated lower borrowing costs also enhancing its appeal. In essence, platinum's current rally reflects a powerful combination of tightening supply and resilient industrial demand, underscored by strategic shifts in major consumer markets and renewed investor interest. As above-ground stocks gradually deplete and the market anticipates continued deficits, platinum is poised for a sustained period of relevance, offering compelling prospects for those who recognize its multifaceted value proposition.
FX_IDC:XPTUSDLong
by UDIS_View
Gold price recovers, accumulates new week⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices (XAU/USD) hold steady near $3,310 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday, with the precious metal struggling to gain traction amid renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD). While a firmer Greenback poses headwinds for gold, lingering uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy continues to offer some support. On Friday, upbeat labor market data bolstered the dollar, pressuring dollar-denominated assets like gold. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 139,000 in May, outpacing expectations of 130,000 and surpassing the previous month's downwardly revised figure of 147,000 (from 177,000). The stronger-than-expected jobs report has dampened hopes of near-term Fed rate cuts, weighing on bullion’s appeal. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price takes liquidity 3294, below 3300 GAP zone last week. Accumulate and react at lower support zones ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3348- 3350 SL 3355 TP1: $3340 TP2: $3330 TP3: $3320 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3281- $3279 SL $3274 TP1: $3292 TP2: $3300 TP3: $3315 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
3
USDJPY Short Setup: OB Rejection + Fib Premium Sell-Off IncomingUSDJPY (1H Chart) | Institutional Short Setup with OB + Fib Confluence The market is showing clear Smart Money Distribution behavior — with a rejection from a high-confluence zone combining Order Block, Premium Fib Levels, and bearish momentum shift. 🔍 Smart Money Setup Breakdown: 🔻 Bearish Order Block Zone (OB) Price wicked into OB zone and got instantly rejected OB located precisely at the 70.5% – 79% premium range Mark of institutional sell-side interest 📐 Fibonacci Retracement + Premium Zone Retracement from swing high (144.973) to swing low (144.436) Premium zone between 61.8% to 79% aligns with OB (144.700–144.973) Entry taken from this zone for high-probability sell setup 📉 Bearish Confirmation Aggressive bearish reaction post-OB tap Market structure flipping bearish Momentum candle breaks previous bullish leg 🔻 Target Zones (Measured Fib Extensions) -27%: 144.200 -62%: 144.000 -100%: 143.803 -161.8%: 143.300 (extended liquidity draw) 🧠 Chart Ninja Entry Plan: 🔹 Entry Zone 144.784 – 144.973 (OB + Premium Fib + FVG rejection) 🔻 SL Above 145.000 (above OB wick) 📉 TP 1 144.200 (first fib extension) 📉 TP 2 143.803 (full -100% extension) ⚖️ RRR Approx. 1:4+ — stealthy sniper precision 💬 Pro Tip from the Ninja Dojo: The market doesn’t move because of indicators — it moves because of liquidity. Find the OB. Wait for the imbalance. Strike where Smart Money hides. 🥷📊 This isn’t retail — this is calculated execution. 🎯 Save this chart before price melts to 143.8 💬 Drop your entry zone & SL idea in comments
Short
by ChartNinjas88
Lemonade, Inc. Showing Momentum - Lets Make Lemonade!Hey, everyone. Wanted to get a video out since it has been awhile. Sorry about the rustling in the audio - bear with me as it is not a theme throughout. I am pretty excited about the momentum that NYSE:LMND is showing. I've been in it with a position for a little bit lately, and was fortunate to catch the previous pump with profit, but I think the momentum has a strong chance to continue here. I pretty much cover all my thoughts behind the idea in the video, so feel free to scroll through it at your own rate. I will post it as a chart idea as well so that you can hit the play button and track how the idea is actively performing. Hope you all were able to whether the tariff tantrum and hoping the market can maintain its current positioning, or, better yet, show continued strength. Enjoy, Reagen
NYSE:LMNDLong
by redykhouse