Beyond Technical Analysis
NQ tumbles?Good day traders, I don't know why but I get a bit scared when it comes to analyzing NQ. I always doubt myself with it.
On the weekly TF price is trading inside an order block and for the past two weeks price has visited the order block two times. In the two times that price revisited the order block it failed to close above the midpoint indicating the strength of the order block, going into the new week I am going to use the discount zone of the OB+ as my resistance.
On the daily TF before I say much, THERE IS A GAP, and price did not trade to it since opening high on the 12th May. That gap is my target and I want to see price go and fill that volume imbalance as ICT calls it.
Still on the daily TF...when you read price for past two weeks on NQ, you'll quickly come to a realization that price has been expanding higher since Tuesday 3rd June, but expanding to where?...well liquidity resting above the high of the candle booked on the 29th of May.
Now on the 4 hour TF things are opening up and price is becoming clearer and it goes to show the importance of multi time frame analysis. The lows of Tuesday and Thursday make the relative equal lows that are shown on the chart. The internal liquidity shown below is my short term target or TP1. The red triangle represents that 4H inverse FVG and once price is trading below the inverse any movement inside that inverse should show weakness!
HMSTR Main Trend -80% Descending Channel 08 06 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days.
The main trend is a descending channel.
Secondary is an ascending channel.
Local trend is descending and a rollback from the key resistance.
While the price is in a descending channel, it is rational to work and focus on dynamic trend supports/resistances, using this volatility.
Locally, on a breakthrough of the designated trend line. To the resistance of the channel itself (the main trend) from it (the local line of the descending trend) a significant %. Then on the chart you will see a double bottom, or a "dragon" pattern, depending on what time and in what price zone (collecting long stops or without this manipulative action) they will make a reversal of the local trend.
Once again, I will say what was said earlier in the previous updates of this cryptocurrency and similar altcoins. Reductions from listing by -80%. For assets of such liquidity, this is quite small (reversal of the main trend). As a rule, the decline in the main trend occurs by 94-98%, with very rare exceptions. Therefore, remember this, and observe money management. But, if the altcoin market as a whole is reversed after the bitcoin season and consolidation, then they will pump, like everyone else.
If you are not a trader at all, but want to "own" this cryptocurrency in your portfolio, for reasons that are clear to you, then it is rational to collect from key levels - support zones (shown in the idea itself, move the chart), from a smaller amount to a larger one, and the entire amount allocated for such assets is allocated in advance, and not after the fact. You can take a little now, or rather place an order for a breakthrough of the local trend line (optional).
There are a huge number of subscribers on Twitter — 12.9 million people! When the time comes, and it will be rational from the market position, then this “army” will be sent to buy through positive posts. However, everything is as always... Perhaps that is why it is worthwhile to collect such assets in good zones without fanaticism, at least to take a closer look, before the alt season, which everyone has already “buried” (everything is as always).
BITCOIN Support & Resistance Levels🚀 Here are some key zones I've identified on the H4/H1 timeframe.
These zones are based on real-time data analysis performed by a custom software I personally developed.
The tool is designed to scan the market continuously and highlight potential areas of interest based on price action behavior and volume dynamics.
Your feedback is welcome!
Skeptic | This Week's Most Profitable Setups: Gold, Forex & SPX!hey, traders, it’s Skeptic ! 😎 Our last watchlist was straight fire, racking up some sweet profits with tons of setups. This week’s looking just as juicy, so stick with me to catch these killer opportunities! 🚖 Welcome to my Weekly Watchlist, where I lay out the markets I’m trading with active triggers—forex pairs, commodities, and CFD indices. No FOMO, no hype, just pure reasoning to keep your trades sharp. Let’s jump in! 📊
DXY (Dollar Index)
Let’s kick off with DXY, ‘cause getting this right makes analyzing other indices and pairs a breeze. After multiple failed attempts to break support at 98.8 , it’s still ranging. This is a monthly support, so confirmation of a break needs to come on a monthly or at least weekly chart. Personally, I’m betting it’ll bounce from here. A break above 99.36 gives early confirmation of a rise, but the real deal is breaking resistance at 100 —then you can short USD pairs like EUR/USD . If 98.8 gives way, look for longs, but this monthly zone is tough, so expect some chop! 😬
EURX
EURX seems to be in a weak upward channel. A break above 1063 could push us to 1071 . On the flip side, breaking the channel’s midline at 1058 might drag us to the floor or even support at 1049 . So, our EURX game plan is clear.
Watchlist Breakdown
Let’s hit the watchlist, starting with XAU/USD (Gold ).
Triggers here are tricky, but I cloned last week’s downward channel and placed it above—this trick often gives us solid setups. If we bounce off the channel’s floor, a break above resistance at 3340 opens a long. For shorts, I don’t have a trigger yet since the market’s already dumped. If we form a 1-hour range, a break below its floor could trigger a short targeting 3249 or the previous channel’s midline.
Now, XAG/USD (Silver)
—no triggers this week. Our long trigger from last week’s analysis at 33.68 smashed it, spiking 8%! 🎉 That’s a lock even Bitcoin traders would drool over, but in Skeptic Lab :)
Next, EUR/USD.
The long trigger is set at a break above resistance at 1.14555 , which lines up with the DXY support break I mentioned. Heads-up: this trade won’t be easy. Reduce risk ‘cause we’re in for a big fight at this level—wild swings and tight stop losses get hunted fast. Stay sharp! 😤
GBP/USD Update
My GBP/USD long got stopped out, so let’s break it down. I went long after a resistance break, with crazy uptrend momentum and RSI hitting overbought (which I see as a long confirmation). Everything looked dope except my stop loss placement. The prior move was so sharp that my stop had to be wide, tanking my R/R. It hit the box ceiling target but then dumped, nailing my stop. Lesson? Either jump in before the main momentum or let the move play out and skip it. Mid-move entries with big stops? Recipe for pain...
SPX 500
Our SPX 500 long trigger from breaking the box ceiling already fired and seems to have pulled back. My target’s 6128.55 , and my open position has a stop loss below 5952.51. If you missed last week’s trade, a new trigger could be a 1-hour resistance break at 6014.20 . If you’re already long, no need to double up.
Final Note
my max risk per trade is 1%, and I suggest you stick to that or lower. I’m cooking up a Money management guide soon, diving deep into why it’s the key to outpacing 90% of traders and boosting your odds of consistent profits. Stay tuned! 🚨 No FOMO, and have an awesome week!
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this watchlist lit a spark, hit that boost—it means a ton! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for rolling with me—keep trading smart! ✌️
When Intuition Beats the Algorithm█ When Gut Feeling Beats the Bot: How Experience Can Improve Algorithmic Trading
In today’s world of fast, data-driven trading, we often hear that algorithms and rules-based systems are the future. But what happens when you mix that with a trader’s intuition, the kind that only comes from years of watching charts and reading price action?
A recent study has some surprising results: A seasoned discretionary trader (someone who trades based on what they see and feel, not just rules) was given a basic algorithmic strategy. The twist? He could override the signals and use his instincts. The result? He turned a losing system into a winning one, big time.
█ What Was the Experiment?
Researchers Zarattini and Stamatoudis (2024) wanted to test whether a skilled trader’s experience could boost a mechanical system. They took 9,794 stock “gap up” events from 2016 to 2023, where a stock opens much higher than the day before, and let the trader pick which ones looked promising.
⚪ To make it fair:
All charts were anonymized — no names, no news, no distractions.
The trader had only the price action to guide his choices.
He could also manage open trades — adjusting stop-losses, profit targets, and position sizing based on what the price was doing.
⚪ The Trading Setup
█ What Did They Find?
The trader only selected about 18% of all the gap-ups. But those trades performed far better than the full list. Here's what stood out:
Without stop-losses, the basic strategy lost money consistently (down -0.25R after just 8 days).
With the trader involved, profits rose fast, hitting +0.80R just 4 days after entry.
Risk was tightly managed: only 0.25% of capital was risked per trade.
⚪ So what made the difference? The trader could spot things the system missed:
Strong momentum early in a move
Clean breakouts from long sideways ranges
Patterns that had real follow-through, not just random gaps
He avoided weak setups and managed trades like a pro, cutting losers, letting winners run, and trailing positions with smart stop placements.
⚪ Example
An experienced trader can quickly identify a breakaway gap, when a stock gaps up above a clear resistance level. Unlike random gaps, this setup often signals the start of a strong move. While a system might treat all gaps the same, a skilled trader knows this one has real potential.
█ What Does This Mean for You?
This research shows that trading experience still matters — a lot.
If you’re a systematic trader, adding a discretionary filter (whether it’s your own review or someone else’s) could drastically improve your results. A clean chart read can help you avoid false signals and focus only on the best setups.
If you’re a discretionary trader, this study is proof that your skills can add measurable value. With the right tools and discipline, you don’t need to throw away your instincts, you can combine them with structure and still win.
█ Key Takeaways
⚪ Gut feeling isn’t just noise, trained instincts can spot what rules miss.
⚪ Trade selection matters more than just following every signal.
⚪ Managing risk and exits well is just as important as picking good entries.
⚪ Hybrid trading, rules plus judgment — might be the most powerful combo.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
XAUUSD TRADING ROADMAP 09 - 13 JUNI 2025XAUUSD TRADING ROADMAP
Trade Plan & Market Outlook
Currently, XAUUSD is trading below the Supply Zone, following a clear rejection from both H4 and Daily Supply areas.
Price is now showing a potential move to retest the Daily Demand Zone at 3286.00 – 3205.00.
🔹 Key Zones to Watch:
🟩 Demand Zones:
H4 Demand: 3261.00 – 3232.00
Daily Demand: 3286.00 – 3205.00
Strong Demand (next level if breakdown): 3176.00
🟥 Supply Zones:
H4 Supply: 3393.00 – 3438.00
Daily Supply: 3357.00 – 3430.00
🔹 Market Outlook & Scenarios:
Price is currently pulling back after rejecting from Supply, and may retest Daily Demand (3286.00 – 3205.00)
A breakdown below this zone could lead to further bearish movement toward the strong Demand at 3176.00
However, if price rejects the Daily Demand Zone, there's potential for the bullish trend to resume
→ As long as price stays above 3205.00, the medium-term bullish outlook remains valid
📌 Wait for price action confirmation around demand zones before entering any trades.
Always apply sound risk management and avoid chasing unconfirmed moves.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ON
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
Please conduct your own analysis and apply proper risk management at all times.
XAUUSD Support & Resistance Levels🚀 Here are some key zones I've identified on the H4/H1 timeframe.
These zones are based on real-time data analysis performed by a custom software I personally developed.
The tool is designed to scan the market continuously and highlight potential areas of interest based on price action behavior and volume dynamics.
Your feedback is welcome!
Bitcoin to 120k or 150k next?The last setup on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD played out exactly as predicted. ()
As of today, June 8, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $105,000 - $106,000 USD.
And it's been retesting the zone for quite a long time and it's time it broke out! It's less likely to reverse now (Still a possibility tho).
Predictions for Bitcoin's future price is wide, as many analysts are quite bullish:
Year-End 2025: Some experts are eyeing $150,000 USD and more by the end of 2025, citing factors like global liquidity expansion and continued institutional interest.
Do you think it's a possibility?
US100 (NASDAQ)🔍 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days)
✅ Structure Highlights:
Market recently made a Higher High (HH).
Strong bullish BOS occurred after reclaiming the $21,600 zone.
Currently trading inside the brown supply zone (Area of Interest) between $21,775–$21,839.
0.236 Fibonacci retracement is holding as support — a sign of bullish control.
🟢 Short-Term Bullish Signals:
Strong bullish momentum with higher lows and internal BOSs.
If price breaks and holds above $21,839, the market may rally toward:
Target 1: $22,000
Target 2: $22,150 (psychological level)
⚠️ Short-Term Bearish Scenario:
If price gets rejected from the current supply zone:
Pullback expected toward $21,670 (0.382) or $21,597 (0.5 Fib)
Further dip to $21,500–$21,400 is possible if buyers fail to hold structure
📉 Short-Term Bias: Bullish with a possible pullback
Enter long on pullback to 0.382–0.5 Fib with bullish confirmation
Avoid fresh longs if price shows strong rejection at $21,839
📈 Long-Term Outlook (1–4 Weeks)
🧠 Macro Trend:
Consistent bullish structure from below $19,000 in early May
Every correction has been shallow with strong continuation
As long as $21,400–$21,200 holds, macro trend remains bullish
📊 Long-Term Fib Zones:
0.5–0.618 retracement (strong accumulation zone) = $21,400–$21,250
Last confirmed Higher Low (HL) at ~$21,000, structure break below this = trend invalidation
💡 Long-Term Bias: Strong Bullish
Any correction into the green AOI or Fib zone = potential long opportunity
Next upside expansions could target:
$22,500
$23,000
GOLD🔍 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days)
✅ Structure Breakdown:
Price has made a lower high (LH) and recently a CHoCH to the downside, indicating short-term bearish pressure.
Rejection from the red supply zone / AOI near $3,375 confirms seller strength.
Price is currently retracing into the Fibonacci zone between 0.382–0.618, with:
0.5 Fib ≈ $3,308 (current level)
0.618 Fib ≈ $3,297
These levels align with possible short-term bounce or rejection zones.
⚠️ Key Short-Term Risks:
If price holds below $3,325, short-term momentum remains bearish.
A bounce could occur around $3,297–$3,275 (0.618 to 0.786 zone) due to demand and historical reaction.
📉 Short-Term Bias: Bearish → Potential Bullish Reversal
Expect possible continuation to $3,275 if support doesn't hold at 0.5 Fib.
Watch for bullish reversal structure (i.e., i-CHoCH + BOS) in the $3,275–$3,250 demand zone to go long.
📈 Long-Term Outlook (1–4 Weeks)
🧠 Macro Structure:
We’ve seen a solid uptrend from $3,125, but the market is stalling near previous highs.
The double top (HH) around $3,375–$3,400 and CHoCH down hint at potential trend exhaustion.
However, long-term trend is still intact unless price closes below $3,250.
📊 Fib Confluence and Demand:
Major demand zone (yellow AOI) sits at $3,250–$3,275.
This zone aligns with the 0.618–0.786 retracement, a typical long-term accumulation area.
💡 Long-Term Bias: Bullish (If $3,250 Holds)
If price reacts strongly from $3,250–$3,275 → Expect new rally attempts to:
$3,375 (resistance)
$3,400+ (breakout target)
If $3,250 breaks down, Gold could retrace to:
$3,200, and worst-case scenario, $3,125 (last strong demand area)
🧭 Key Levels to Watch
Type Price Note
Resistance $3,375 Key supply zone / top
Resistance $3,400–$3,425 Historical HH / exhaustion
Support $3,308–$3,297 0.5–0.618 Fib (short-term)
Support $3,275 0.786 Fib + AOI
Support $3,250 Break = trend shift
Major Support $3,125 Long-term bullish invalidation below here
BTC OUTLOOK🔍 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days)
Current Price: ~$105,754
Immediate Structure:
BTC just completed a bullish break of structure (BOS) and internal change of character (i-CHoCH) to the upside.
Price rebounded sharply from the demand zone (green AOI) around $101,000–$102,000.
Price is now approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (~$106,150) from the recent swing high to swing low, which often acts as resistance.
Short-Term Bias: Bullish → Cautious
✅ Momentum is currently favoring bulls as shown by the breakout above recent structure.
⚠️ Resistance Zone between $106,150–$107,000 could cap this move, especially with past lower highs (LH) and supply visible in that region.
Short-term traders should watch for:
Break above $106,150 → continuation to $108,000–$110,000
Rejection at $106,150 → possible retest of $104,000–$103,000
📈 Long-Term Outlook (1–4 Weeks)
Market Structure:
Still showing signs of a macro lower high (LH) and lower low (LL) structure.
Despite recent bullish push, the macro downtrend from the highs around $112,000–$113,000 remains intact.
Reclaiming above $110,000 would be the first signal of a true trend reversal.
Fibonacci Confluence:
The current swing aligns with 0.618–0.786 retracement, which is often a “golden pocket” for institutional sell zones.
There’s a major supply zone (red AOI) that may keep price suppressed unless there's a breakout with high volume.
Long-Term Bias: Bearish Unless Proven Otherwise
Unless BTC breaks and holds above $110,000, long-term trend remains down.
Likely scenario:
Range-bound between $101,000–$107,000
Break below $101,000 → opens the door to $98,000 or lower
Break above $107,000 and hold → potential reversal towards $112,000
ETHEREUM is stacking up to fly! BINANCE:ETHUSDT ETHEREUM got a lot going for it right now. It's the backbone of a huge chunk of the crypto world, especially with all the DeFi and NFT stuff happening. Plus, there's always talk about big upgrades that could make it even better.
Right now, Ethereum's trading around $2,500, but some experts expect that it could climb way higher, maybe even past $8,000, if everything goes right.
That aside, I personally think $5,000 is achievable and to happen soon. It clearly broke out of the months long downtrend channel and with momentum. There's a lot of hate for ETH just for being expensive. But, let's be real, is not the 2nd biggest player in the market for nothing.
Let me know what you think? Open to counter ideas!
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
EURAUD MARKET ANALYSIS AND PRICE PREDICTIONEURAUD, ended last week consolidating at the institutional renegotiation zone. I, believe this week the decision will favor the Bulls because price has already swept the sell side liquidity to activate an institutional buy order at the order block.
If the market favors the Bulls, price will break the renegotiation trend line with a shift candle creating an imbalance in the market, then price will come back to fill that imbalance and give the Bulls a perfect entry at 75% discount price of 1.75688 zone. The target will be the renegotiation resistance at 1.77063 zone to sweep the buy side liquidity. Lets watch together and see what happens by tomorrow and Tuesday this week.
Entry, stop loss and take profit are clearly marked out on the chat.
GOOD LUCK GUYS!
DICLAIMER
This analysis might fail due to market uncertainties. Take full responsibility of your capital and manage your own risk
USDCAD - Short trade continuationWas triggered in to this on Friday
As we can see we had a pool of liquidity to the left. We then had the news release of NFP.
We were tagged in and then now we are looking to take price to the previous structure lows.
As you can also see we took a lovely trade last week on USDCAD to the downside.
I am still holding 0.5% of that position alongside the current one we have just been tagged into. Very nice potential for continuation to the downside.
If you have any questions for me give me a message