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Bullish Undercurrents Build in Soybean Oil MarketSoybean oil futures have rebounded nearly 14% in June, following a 5.7% drop in May, supported by tightening global supply, resilient demand, expanding biodiesel use, and steady U.S. production with some planting delays. Severe drought in Brazil and Argentina, who together account for 45% of global soybean exports, has slashed yields by roughly 15%, tightening supply chains and boosting prices. Strong Chinese demand, both for food and hog herd rebuilding, continues to be a major price driver. China imports nearly 18.5 million tons of soybean oil annually and remains the world’s largest consumer. The USDA’s June WASDE report underscored a bullish backdrop: U.S. production is steady at 4.34 billion bushels for 2025–26, but ending stocks are projected to fall to 295 million bushels, down from 350 million in 2024–25, signalling a tighter domestic supply. Adding to the bullish momentum, crude oil prices surged on 13/Jun amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions, indirectly supporting soybean oil due to its role in biodiesel production. Higher crude prices enhance biodiesel’s competitiveness, boosting demand for soybean oil as a feedstock. Soybean oil futures also jumped after the EPA proposed higher-than-expected biofuel blending mandates. The Trump administration’s proposal, seen as a major win for the biofuels industry, is expected to significantly increase domestic soybean crush demand in 2026 and 2027. TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO BULLISH REVERSAL Technical indicators suggest weakening bearish momentum in soybean oil. Since early June, prices have climbed above the 9-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages after starting the month below them. Though the 9-day MA is still below the 21-day, the narrowing gap signals strengthening momentum and a possible bullish crossover. The MACD and RSI indicate that selling pressure has subsided, with momentum now tilting bullish. If this strength persists, the uptrend in soybean oil futures could gain further traction. OPTIONS DATA SIGNALS GROWING BULLISH MOMENTUM For the week ending 10/Jun, Managed Money’s net long positioning in soybean oil futures fell by 22.6%, reflecting a 13% drop in longs and a 7.1% dip in shorts. Rising implied volatility alongside prices and a positive skew suggest growing bullish sentiment, as market participants position for potential upside in soybean oil futures. Source: CME CVOL The rise in call OI across near-term contracts suggests growing bullish sentiment for soybean oil prices. Source: CME QuikStrike While selective increase in put OI reflects cautious hedging, pointing to expectations of further upside with some near-term uncertainty. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Bullish fundamentals driven by rising Chinese demand, supply disruptions in South America, and a sharp uptick in crude oil, combined with supportive technical indicators and skewed options positioning, suggest further upside potential for soybean oil futures. This paper posits a tactical long on CME Micro Soybean Oil August futures (MZLQ25 expiring on 25th July), targeting an uptrend in prices. Investors can position against this backdrop using the CME Micro Soybean Oil Futures, which are sized at one-tenth (6,000 pounds) of standard contracts (which are 60,000 pounds). This allows for a cost-effective method to express a short-term bearish stance. As of 16th June, the minimum exchange margin on this contract is USD 190 per lot. • Entry: USc 51/Pound • Potential Profit: USc 57/Pound (57– 51= 6) x 6000/100 = USD 360 • Stop-Loss: USc 47.3/Pound (47.3- 51 = -3.7) x 6000/100 = USD 222 • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.62x In collaboration with the CME Group, TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time market data. The competition lasts another 14 days. Please join the other 54,500 participants who are actively honing their trading skills using virtual money. Click here to learn more. #TheFuturesLeap #Microfutures MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER, the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:MZL2!Long
by mintdotfinance
Safe Entry Zone MDBPrice Reached good Support Level. Waiting for Buyers to step-in in Case no Buying Power Showed -Up we will be targeting Green Zone As Safest Entry Zone and Strongest Support level. Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
NASDAQ:MDB
by Faisalzor
The FED on June 18 will be decisive for the stock market!Several fundamental factors will have a strong influence on the stock market this week, including trade diplomacy, geopolitical tensions and the FED's monetary policy decision on Wednesday June 18. 1) The FED on June 18, the fundamental highlight of the week The stock market week will be dominated by one fundamental event: the US Federal Reserve's (FED) monetary policy decision scheduled for Wednesday June 18. This meeting promises to be crucial for the summer direction of the financial markets, against a backdrop of uncertainties linked to the trade war and an economic cycle nearing maturity. Although the consensus is for the US Fed Funds rate to remain unchanged, with a 99% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors' attention will be focused on the Fed's updated macroeconomic projections. The expected evolution of inflation, employment and the Fed Funds rate will be at the heart of the debate, as will the tone of Jerôme Powell's press conference. The market, now expensive both technically and fundamentally, is demanding more accommodative signals to extend its rally. 2) The market wants confirmation of two rate cuts by the end of 2025 What investors now expect from the FED is not so much immediate action on rates as a clearer roadmap for the end of the year. Explicit confirmation of two rate cuts by December 2025 would represent the minimum required to support current equity market levels, particularly the S&P 500, which is trading close to its all-time highs. However, the central bank remains under pressure, torn between calls for monetary easing and caution in the face of a possible rebound in inflation, particularly under the impact of customs tensions. If Jerome Powell reaffirms the Bank's wait-and-see stance, this could lead to market consolidation. Conversely, downwardly revised inflation forecasts and a Fed Funds curve pointing to further declines could be interpreted as a clear signal of a pivot. We will also have to keep a close eye on the developments announced regarding the reduction of the Quantitative Tightening program. Finally, beyond the fundamentals, the technical timing reinforces the importance of this meeting. The bond market is already providing clues, with a technical configuration that could herald an easing in yields if the Fed adopts a more conciliatory tone. In equities, the weekly technical analysis of the S&P 500 shows areas of overbought territory, reinforcing the need for monetary support to avoid a trend reversal. In this context, Wednesday's meeting is more than just a monetary policy decision: it is a strategic marker for the rest of 2025. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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FRED:FEDFUNDS
by Swissquote
USD/JPY 1H ShortUSD/JPY 1H – Analysis 🔍 1. Context: Macro Fundamentals BOJ (Bank of Japan) remains dovish, showing little intention of raising rates significantly. USD strength continues due to sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Geopolitical risks and U.S. economic resilience further strengthen the dollar. This macro backdrop supports bearish JPY bias, hence a long USD/JPY setup aligns with the fundamentals. 🧠 2. Structure and Liquidity Analysis Price recently swept sell-side liquidity (marked by the dip into demand zone). Strong bullish reaction from a demand block confirms interest from smart money. The market has now printed a short-term higher low, signaling a possible intent to create a new leg up. 📌 3. Entry, Stop Loss, Target (SMC-Based) ✅ Entry: At 144.180–144.250 (refinement inside the lower bullish reaccumulation zone). This zone represents a mitigation of a lower imbalance and offers a favorable risk-reward long. ❌ Stop Loss: Below 143.880, beneath the refined demand zone and last liquidity sweep — if broken, the bullish narrative is invalidated in this leg. 🎯 Target 1 (Partial): 145.400 — first major supply zone where prior imbalance sits and price previously reversed. Could see first reaction here. 🎯 Target 2 (Final TP): 146.280 – 146.400 — a higher timeframe buy-side liquidity pool and previous distribution origin. Risk-to-reward is well-optimized at 1:4+, depending on execution precision. 🔄 4. Price Action Expectations Price may retest the 144.200–144.250 zone (demand). If order flow remains bullish, expect a clean break of internal high at 145.180. Watch for reaction at 145.400, but holding partials for a liquidity run toward 146.280+ is justified. 📉 5. Invalidation Scenario If price breaks and closes below 143.880, we consider: The demand was not institutional. A deeper mitigation into the lower demand block near 142.100–141.800 may be required. ✅ Final Outlook “USD/JPY has completed a sweep of liquidity and is now forming bullish internal structure. With macro favoring USD strength, and current order flow signaling institutional positioning, a long from 144.200 toward 146.280 is a high-probability setup — provided price protects the latest demand block.”
by ProSignalai
1
A whole new type of cash back offer - LONG at 562.03I've posted ideas about MA before. I will continue posting buy ideas about MA until the final breath leaves my body. The average credit card APR is 24.3% - I think this trade can do better. Around 60% APR on average, with a good chance at 270%+ APR. MA is in a multi-year uptrend, only 2 days removed from its all time high. Smoked today not because they lost their CEO or their business model is a failure, but because two historic enemies took shots at each other halfway across the world. While I won't completely ignore geopolitics, its effects are almost always transitory. I literally can't find a better reason to buy this as a short term blip in their long term story. On a day where, when the whole market fell just over 1%, MA fell 4x that. I will take that gift and run wild with it. Historically, MA has never failed to produce a profitable trade for me, with an average gain of +.24% per trading day (that's 60% annualized). The average trade length has been 7 days and gained 1.7%. However, using an additional filter, the per day returns for the last 25 trades have increased to +1.07% per trading day (270% annualized). That's 4x the old returns and almost 25x the long term average daily return of the S&P 500. The average trade length has shortened to 5.5 trading days and produced an increased average return of 2.45% as well. Additional lots may be added if the signal is re-triggered before I close it. There is no specific profit target, but I will redeem my cash back offer and close any lot end of day when an exit signal is triggered and the lot is profitable. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NYSE:MALong
by redwingcoach
3
Gold May Pull Back Short-Term📊 Market Overview: After several strong bullish sessions, gold prices are under short-term pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East temporarily ease and the US Dollar shows slight recovery. While expectations for a steady Fed policy remain, traders are locking in profits after gold tested the $3,445 resistance zone. 📉 Technical Analysis: Key Resistance: $3,445 – $3,460 Nearest Support: $3,394 – $3,380 EMA 09: Price has dropped below the 09 EMA, signaling a potential short-term bearish shift. RSI/Candles/Momentum: RSI is pulling back from overbought levels. A red candlestick pattern has emerged after a strong rally, suggesting a technical pullback may be forming. Trading volume is starting to decrease. 📌 Outlook: Gold may correct lower in the short term toward the $3,390–$3,380 support zone if it fails to reclaim the 09 EMA. However, the medium-to-long-term trend remains supported by safe-haven demand and dovish Fed expectations. 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: SELL XAU/USD at: $3,440 – $3,445 🎯 TP: $3,420 ❌ SL: $3,455 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,390 – $3,395 🎯 TP: $3,410 ❌ SL: $3,380
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mian-FXSignals
Google: Bullish Momentum Indicates Short-Term Upside Potential Current Price: $174.67 Direction: LONG Targets: - T1 = $178.80 - T2 = $182.50 Stop Levels: - S1 = $172.30 - S2 = $170.50 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Google. **Key Insights:** Google's parent company, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), has been the beneficiary of diversified revenue streams, particularly from its artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud services, which have sparked new growth possibilities. Alphabet has also strategically bolstered its market presence in explosive tech markets, such as India, ensuring its infrastructure investments and potential benefits from increasing global internet penetration. Technical indicators underline a solid investment outlook, with a pattern of higher lows and renewed resistance testing above its 200-day moving average. This makes Alphabet a prime candidate for bullish scenarios, with entry points near recent dips. **Recent Performance:** In the past month, Alphabet’s prices have sustained a consolidation phase between $172 and $180, following a rebounding rally from its earlier yearly lows around $150. Daily averaging ranges and patterns have attracted bullish investors near pivotal supports and upright triggers based from RSI oversold into Buy setups. With sustained over-moving averages metrics standing resilient, the $175-$180 swing zone holds market convictions and consolidation metrics forwards conservatively tending till rises stay near end breakout spaces. **Expert Analysis:** Wall Street analysts cite upward forces arising from notable technical pivots, especially Alphabet’s price forecast exceeding its outwards monthly forecasts parsed mid-year broad outperform signals both makes attractive Forecast futures ending pulls outset near target-Breaking triggers analysts till peak-going Predicted moves near Structural Customer maximized cycles... Recent... Recommendations supports-focused Shifting buysahead lower dynamizing recover structurally maintain until broad overcycle completing into sustained final intended Leftovers offerings changes peak $180—expected $184… 2025 includes movendes centered over-outcomes Left remaining compact investment toward quarterly areas extend major broader-final bull incentives segments projection financial cycles trade zones recap...
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Natural Gas: Bullish Setup Within a Triangle, Targeting $4.90A promising situation is forming in natural gas. I believe we can expect further growth in the asset. The trend is bullish, volatility has decreased, and the price has consolidated into what looks like a triangle — from which I expect an upward breakout. What concerns me slightly is today's gap up at the open. I'm not rushing into a position just yet. I'm planning to enter around the 3.671 level. Ideally, the gap would get filled — likely closer to the opening of the U.S. session or during it. For now, I'm observing and looking for a proper entry point. Medium-term target: $4.90 And most importantly: Always place stop-losses right away. Risk management is key: choose your position size carefully — this is a volatile asset. Don’t forget that!
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by kventinka
Amazon ($AMZN) – Bullish Breakout WatchPublished by: Wavervanir_International_LLC 🗓️ May 19, 2025 | 1D Chart Amazon is showing strong momentum with a confirmed break above the $200.92 resistance zone (now flipped support). The price is currently consolidating around the 0.786 Fibonacci level ($208.21), and a clean daily close above this region could open up an impulsive move toward the 1.618 Fib extension at $233.99 and the key resistance level of $239.23. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: 🔹 Support: $200.92 🔹 Resistance: $208.21 → $214.84 → $233.99 🔹 Final Target (Short-term swing): $239.23 🎯 Bullish Fib Extensions: 1.618 ($233.99), 2.618 ($264.98), 3.618 ($295.97) 📊 Setup Rationale: Bullish structure with higher lows forming since May. Breakout above major supply zone. Clean Fibonacci confluence for upside targets. Volume confirmation and market momentum favor upside continuation. 🚨 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence. This chart is for educational purposes under Wavervanir DSS guidance.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
GOOGL: Options Gamma & Tactical Price Setup-Jun 161️⃣ Options Gamma Overview (1‑Hour GEX Layout) * Strongest gamma/call resistance lies between 175–185, with ~60% at the second call wall (~176) and ~48% at the third (~180). * IV is depressed (~18 vs 38 avg), making options cheap and directional moves more potent. * GEX shows slight call-lean (~15% call gamma), marginally skewing toward upside pressure. * Strategy idea: Consider short-dated call spreads just above 175 if price breaks that area with conviction—or layer put spreads below ~$172 if it fails and starts descending. 2️⃣ 15-Minute Chart Snapshot & Market Structure * Recent higher low formed around 171–172, marking a valid setup region (green zone). * Resistance cluster (“purple box”) spans 176–178, the recent breakout area and clear boss zone. * Trendline from swing low is ascending and currently aligns with price (~175), reinforcing that level. * Bias: Cautiously bullish if it holds above 175. Break above 178–180 unlocks uptrend. Breakdown below 174 invalidates and targets 171. 3️⃣ Trade Plans & Execution * Bullish (preferred if conditions align): * Entry: Buy 5DTE call spread triggered by a clean break above 175–176. * Targets: 180 and 185 gamma resistance. * Stop: Below 174 (trendline breach). * Bearish Hedge: * Entry: Buy put spread if price fails below trendline and dips <174. * Target: 172 area (green zone), stop above 175. 🧠 Rationale * Gamma walls present key inflection points—176 and 180 deserve respect as barriers or launchpads. * Low IV environment reduces premium cost and quickens directional moves. * Structure + trend alignment: Ascending higher lows suggest bullish lean—but must prove itself above resistance. 🚨 Disclaimer
This is for educational purposes—not financial advice. Options incur risk and may result in total loss. Trade with discipline—use proper position sizing, stop-losses, and awareness of volatility events and upcoming catalysts.
NASDAQ:GOOG
by BullBearInsights
BTC Setup: Watching for a Trap — Bids Below, Flip Above!Scenario 1 (Fakeout & Reversal): Watch for push to $107,000–$108,000 (potential bull trap) Close longs on move into resistance zone Look for reversal signals (SFP, strong rejection) to re-enter lower Scenario 2 (Sweep and Bounce): Place bids at/just below $100,272 (1D Support) and within $98,000–$100,000 (FVG) Target: Move back toward trendline resistance ($107k+) Stop: Below $97,200 Invalidation: Structure flips bearish on a clean break/close below $97,200 🔔 Triggers & Confirmations: Enter longs only on SFP or strong bounce confirmation in FVG zone Avoid chasing if price is between $102k–$106k (“no-trade chop”) 📝 Order Placement & Management: 🔼 Buy Limits: $100,300 / $99,000 / $98,000 (staggered bids in FVG) 🛡️ Long Stop: $97,200 🎯 Target: $107,000–$109,000 (trendline resistance) 📝 Take profits on spike to $107k+ 🚨 Risk Warning: Friday volatility, news risk Avoid new longs above $107k — watch for failed breakout/fakeout
by Goldfinch_song
Do you have enough reasons to take the trade? IF NOT...stay outAll the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!! tradingview.sweetlogin.com
Long
by Simply-Forex