Powell’s Comments Could Decide BTC’s Fate: New ATH or Rejection!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has attacked the Support zone($116,900-$115,730) several times over the past week but failed to break through, meaning that buyers are still hoping for a BTC increase or even a new All-Time High(ATH) .
Bitcoin has reached a Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) again and is trying to break the upper lines of the Symmetrical Triangle Pattern . The Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($117,255-$116,675) is important and includes high sell orders , so if Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) and the Resistance lines with high momentum , we can hope for a continuation of the upward trend.
Whether or not the Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) and the Resistance lines break could depend on the tone of Jerome Powell’s speech today .
Jerome Powell will speak at the opening of the “ Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks ” — the final major appearance before the Federal Reserve enters its pre-meeting blackout period.
Market Expectations:
The speech is officially about regulatory frameworks (like Basel III), but traders are watching closely for any hints regarding interest rate policy. Even indirect comments could move risk assets like BTC.
Rate Cut Signals?
With political pressure mounting (including criticism from Trump ) and markets pricing in a potential cut later this year, Powell may adopt a cautious, data-dependent tone emphasizing flexibility in decision-making.
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In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the wave structure of the main wave 4 correction is over. The main wave 4 has a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) , so that the microwave B of the main wave 4 has a Double Three Correction(WXY) . Of course, the breakdown of the Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) and Resistance lines can confirm the end of the main wave 4 .
Also, there is a possibility that the 5th wave will be a truncated wave because the momentum of the main wave 3 is high , and Bitcoin may NOT create a new ATH and the main wave 5 will complete below the main wave 3.
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least the Resistance zone($121,000-$120,070) AFTER breaking the Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) and Resistance lines .
Second Target: $121,620
Third Target: $123,820
Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $117,450
CME Gap: $115,060-$114,947
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $117,429-$116,878
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $116,053-$115,411
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Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Bearish retest or deviation for Bitcoin117000 is key. it’ll decide whether this is a bearish retest or just a deviation. i believe it’s a bearish retest and we’re setting up for 110-114 next.
last drop came when price kept failing to hold above EQ. now we’re below the EQ of the ath/previous ath range. if price can’t reclaim that either, a deeper drop is likely. a 12h close above EQ could open the path toward 120-121k, but that’s the less probable case in my view.
why? nasdaq and spx are in premium zones (fib extensions), and holidays are near for big players. as profit taking hits there, pressure will echo here. simple cause, predictable effect.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Recovery Starts
Bitcoin is going to rise from a key daily support.
After a liquidity grab, the market shows a clear strength,
forming a double bottom on an hourly time frame.
I expect a bullish movement at least to 117100
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ETH/BTC vs btc dominanceethereum received a reaction as we expected from the current demand zone in the bitcoin pair, and it seems inevitable that the upward momentum from the current area will continue. on the bitcoin dominance side, the same situation exists, but I think we will witness a bearish absolute process.
BITCOIN Is this just a giant Bull Flag?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is basically on its first strong pull-back since the July 14 All Time High (ATH), as it is the 3rd straight red day going from roughly $120300 to below $115000 as of this moment.
Technically this Channel Down pull-back looks like a Bull Flag to the uptrend that started following the June 22 Low. The 1D RSI pattern is similar to the May 22 - 30 fractal, which was also a correction that started after a Channel Up and initially hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), only to rebound a settle for a last dip lower closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
If the 1D MA50 fails to contain the current correction, we may again be faced with a slightly more prolonged pull-back, which may be translated into an Accumulation Phase that could eventually lead to prices above $130000 by September.
Do you think that will be the case or we will see an instant rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin/TetherUS (BTC/USDT) on a 4-hour timeframeOverall Trend & Price Action:
Prior Uptrend: The chart shows a clear uptrend leading up to around July 15th, marked by an "Order Trend" line (dashed green).
Break of Market Structure (BMS): A "BMS" (Break of Market Structure) label is visible, suggesting a significant shift in market dynamics, likely indicating the end of the previous uptrend or a strong pullback.
Consolidation/Distribution: After the initial uptrend, the price appears to have entered a period of consolidation or potential distribution between approximately $115,000 and $120,000.
Resistance Trends: Several "Resistance Trend" lines (red) are drawn, indicating areas where the price has faced selling pressure. A recent breakdown below these resistance lines is evident.
Change of Character (ChoCH): A "ChoCH" label is present, which often signifies a change in the prevailing market sentiment or trend, confirming the shift away from the strong bullish momentum.
Current Price & Trading Setup:
Current Price: The current price is around $115,849.44.
Proposed Entry: The chart suggests an "Entry" point at $116,150.00. This is positioned just above the current price and within a potential retest zone of the broken resistance.
Stop Loss (S/L): The "S/L" is set at $118,600.00, indicating a risk management level if the trade goes against the intended direction.
Profit Targets (Profit):
First Profit Target: $114,150.00, located just above the first "Golden Zone."
Second Profit Target: $108,350.00, situated within the second "Golden Zone."
Golden Zones: Two "Golden Zones" (brown shaded areas) are identified, which are typically areas of significant support/demand or Fibonacci retracement levels where price is expected to react. The current setup seems to target these zones for profit-taking.
SMS: 70.83%: This "SMS" value (likely referring to "Smart Money Score" or a similar metric) of 70.83% suggests a strong bearish bias or conviction in the current setup.
Interpretation & Potential Strategy:
The analysis suggests a bearish trading setup for BTC/USDT.
The presence of BMS, ChoCH, and the breakdown below resistance trends indicate a potential shift from bullish to bearish sentiment or a significant correction.
The proposed short entry at $116,150.00 aims to capitalize on further downward movement.
The profit targets align with identified "Golden Zones," suggesting that these are anticipated areas of support where the bearish momentum might temporarily stall or reverse.
The significant "SMS" value reinforces the bearish outlook.
Risks & Considerations:
Reversal from Golden Zones: While profit targets are set at Golden Zones, these are also potential areas for price reversals if strong buying interest emerges.
False Breakout/Breakdown: The market can always surprise, and a re-entry above the stop-loss level would invalidate the current bearish setup.
Market Volatility: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and rapid price movements can occur.
News Events: Unforeseen news or macroeconomic events could significantly impact price action.
BTC - Last Push: Consolidation, Manipulation & DistributionMarket Context
After a strong upward impulse, Bitcoin has entered a mid-term consolidation phase just below its all-time high. This kind of price action is typical as the market digests recent gains and larger participants prepare for the next move. These pauses in momentum often precede either trend continuation or a reversal — and the structure here suggests we might be witnessing the former, but not without a final shakeout.
Phase 1: Consolidation Around the All-Time High
The first phase is defined by a tight range just beneath the all-time high, where price moves sideways in a balanced struggle between buyers and sellers. This is often where retail participants become overly bullish, anticipating a breakout. However, the lack of a sustained move higher indicates that smart money may be waiting for better entries — or preparing to engineer liquidity to fuel the next move.
Phase 2: Manipulation Into the Fair Value Gap and Golden Pocket
Directly below the range lies a clean Fair Value Gap, with a Golden Pocket retracement nestled inside it. This zone represents a strong area of interest. A sharp move into this area would likely sweep late long positions and trigger stop-losses from range traders — a classic manipulation pattern. This phase serves two purposes: collect liquidity and offer favorable pricing for larger players looking to position themselves before expansion. Watch for signs of absorption or reversal as price enters this zone.
Phase 3: Expansion – The Last Push of the Bull Market?
Following the liquidity sweep and reaction from the Fair Value Gap and Golden Pocket zone, we could see a renewed expansion toward higher highs. This is the phase where volume returns, sentiment shifts, and price accelerates. If this plays out, it could mark the final leg of this bull cycle — potentially driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs with strength.
Execution Thoughts
If you're looking to participate, it's wise to wait for a confirmation signal on a lower timeframe — like the 5-minute or 15-minute chart — once price enters the Fair Value Gap and Golden Pocket zone. Watch for a strong bullish reaction, break of structure, or shift in order flow to signal that buyers are stepping back in.
Final Thoughts
Let the market come to your level and don’t chase moves without context. These three phases — consolidation, manipulation, and expansion — are timeless patterns seen across all markets. Stay patient, stay objective, and react with clarity.
If this breakdown helped you see the setup more clearly, a like would mean a lot — and I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments! Are you watching the same zone, or do you see something different?
BTC Long Setup | Multi-target Swing Trade with Reasonable SL📝 Description:
Buy Bitcoin (BTC) based on continuation correction structure.
Entry: 115,800
Stop-Loss: 112,600
Risk: 1% per trade (position size adjusted accordingly, no leverage used trade spot only!)
🎯 Take-Profit Levels:
*Watch for a strong red candle at each TP zone.
If it happen, take full profit.
If not, let the position run and watch it again at the next target.
TP1: 120,000
TP2: 126,990
TP3: 129,296
RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) across targets:
• TP1 = 1:1.3
• TP2 = 1:3.69
• TP3 = 1:4.36
Bitcoin’s Epic Run from 80K to 120K: What’s Next for BTC?Yo traders, it’s Skeptic from Skeptic Lab! 🩵 Diving into Bitcoin’s wild ride from 80K to 120K—breaking down the key supports, resistances, and what’s next for BTC.
From the $76k bounce to smashing $110K, we’re eyeing the $120K PRZ. Will it correct or keep soaring? Check the video for the full scoop! Drop your thoughts or coin requests in the comments, boost if it vibes & Let’s grow together!
MARA: shoulders done, now walk toward the targetOn the daily chart, MARA completed a textbook inverse Head & Shoulders reversal with a clear breakout above the descending trendline. A corrective pullback followed, and the price is now heading into the key buy zone at 15.21–15.77 - aligning with the 0.72 and 0.79 Fibonacci retracements, and the upper boundary of the broken channel. This is the area to watch for a potential continuation of the bullish impulse.
Volume on the breakout was above average, confirming strong buyer interest. The EMAs are trending below the price, supporting the upward structure. The first target is located at 21.57 (previous resistance), with a potential extension to 28.77 (Fibonacci 1.618).
Fundamentally, MARA remains highly correlated with BTC and crypto sentiment. As interest returns to crypto-related assets due to ETF flows and possible Fed easing, mining stocks like MARA gain attention. Recent reports also show improved production efficiency and lowered costs - a tailwind for bulls.
Tactically, the best setup would be a confirmed reaction from the buy zone — whether a strong candlestick formation, volume surge, or reclaim of a key level. If that happens, aiming for 21.57 and 28.77 becomes a solid plan.
The pattern played out - now it's time for the market to walk the talk.
BTC New Upodate (4H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
We previously stated that Bitcoin lacks the strength to move upward, and we expect the price to soon reach the green zone (114K-112K).
The price is now dropping toward this zone, which is the rebuy area.
The process of reaching the green zone has been and still is somewhat time-consuming, and during this time, it may repeatedly mislead beginners.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Volatility Period: July 24-26
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get the latest information quickly.
Have a nice day today.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
BTC is in a step up trend.
Looking at the bigger picture, it can be seen that it is in the second step up trend.
The important volatility period in this step-up is expected to be around August 2-5 (up to August 1-6).
Therefore, we need to look at what kind of movement it makes as it passes through the previous volatility period of around July 25 (July 24-26) and around July 31 (July 30-August 1).
In other words, we need to check which section is supported and which section is resisted, and see if it breaks through that section.
What we can see now is that it is checking whether there is support in the 115854.56-119086.64 section, that is, the HA-High ~ DOM (60) section.
Since the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart has risen to the 115854.56 point, the key is whether it can receive support at the 115854.56 point and rise.
If it falls below the M-Signal indicator of the 1D chart and shows resistance, it is likely to meet the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart.
This flow is an interpretation of the separation learned when studying the price moving average.
Therefore, we can see that the maximum decline point is when it meets the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart.
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Industries (coins, tokens) that are renewing the ATH are actually outside the predictable range.
Therefore, we should think of it as a situation where it is not strange whether it falls or rises at any time and think of a response plan.
Since it is currently within the predictable range, we can create a response strategy by checking whether there is support in the 115854.56-119086.64 section.
However, as I mentioned earlier, the volatility period is about to begin, so caution is required when making new transactions.
That is, you need to check whether it breaks out of the 115854.56-119086.64 range during the volatility period that continues until July 26.
And if it breaks out, you need to check whether it is supported or resisted in that area and respond accordingly.
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The OBV indicator of the Low Line ~ High Line channel is showing a pattern of rising above the High Line.
Accordingly, if the OBV indicator is maintained above the High Line, it is expected to show an additional rise.
In accordance with this, you need to check whether the K of the StochRSI indicator shows a movement to rise in the oversold range and a transition to a state where K > D.
You also need to check whether the TC (Trend Check) indicator continues its upward trend and can rise above the 0 point.
If these conditions are met, it is expected that BTC will rise above 119086.64 or show a pattern of rising.
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This decline created a low trend line, creating a perfect rising channel.
Therefore, we need to see how far we can go up along the rising channel created this time.
In that sense, we should pay close attention to the movement during the volatility period around July 25th (July 24-26).
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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BITCOIN IS CREATING A SECRET PATTERN! (Huge move incoming?!)Yello paradisers! I'm describing to you what's going on with Bitcoin right now. We are creating a secret pattern that is forming, and once its neckline is reclaimed, we are going to have a huge movement.
In this video, I'm sharing with you the most important support and resistances on multiple time frames. We are describing Elliott wave theory wave count, and taking a look at candlestick patterns. We are talking about confirmations necessary for bullish and bearish cases. I'm explaining to you what the professional trading signals need for long-term profitability.
Some of the points are great risk-reward ratios. I'm talking about that in the video. One of them is taking only the highest probability trade setups, and having the patience and discipline to wait for them.
I'm talking about proper strategy which is needed, and systemology in your overall trading and how important it is. Here on TradingView, I'm describing to you the overall bias I have on Bitcoin right now.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.
What's The Lowest Bitcoin Can Go? (Top Altcoins Choice —Comment)Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high recently and is consolidating just below resistance. I have a question: How far down can Bitcoin go on a sudden retrace?
That's a great question. Assuming that Bitcoin will continue growing mid-term and long-term, we can expect some more consolidation before higher prices. A retrace is not mandatory but is possible. A correction is almost impossible; low probability; not likely.
The worst case scenario Bitcoin does go down and the action should stop right at the previous high. Resistance turned support. That is, $112,000 to $110,000 would the first and main support range. Harder for Bitcoin to move much lower but these levels are not active yet.
If Bitcoin were to produce an extreme shakeout before additional growth, I would say the worst possible would be a touch of $104,000, but this is still a low probability setup. The chances are that Bitcoin will continue sideways while the altcoins grow. The fact that the altcoins are bullish means that Bitcoin will resume growing in due time. The next major move is another advance exceeding $130,000. It can happen within weeks or next month.
Patience is key on Bitcoin, the altcoins need to catch up.
Sometimes, Bitcoin can go sideways for months wile the altcoins grow. Prepare to wait or switch yourself to some mid-sized and small-cap altcoins. The big pairs tend to move like Bitcoin. Each chart needs to be considered individually.
Thanks a lot for your support.
Feel free to leave a comment with your favorite altcoin for an update. I will do an analysis for you in the comments section below.
Namaste.
Bitcoin H4 | Falling toward a multi-swing-low supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 116,242.45 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 38.2% retracement and the 100% projection.
Stop loss is at 113,300.00 which is a level that lies underneath a support zone that is identified by a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 50% retracement and the 161.8% extension.
Take profit is at 122,575.45 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time-high.
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Bitcoin, SPX, Ethereum, Tesla: Whats Next? BTC appears to be showing distribution signs.
I do believe BTC local top is in, but alt coins like Ethereum can still push a bit higher.
Ethereum short around 3900-4000 looks promising
Tesla fell sharply on the back of cash flow burn and expenditures.
Investors are also fearful of sales decline and loss of EV credits.
SPX hit major long term resistance today. Coupling this with a depressed Vix we are likely setting up for a pullback in the market.
Small caps saw distribution today on the back of rising yields. A failed breakout observed on IWM chart.
BTC 4H – Dance with the 200MA
Bitcoin continues its strong relationship with the 200MA.
Each time price dips below it, fear spikes — but bounces off key Fib levels have followed, with price then riding higher alongside the 200MA.
Right now, price is caught between the 200MA and a nearby Fib level.
Here’s what could happen next:
– Price flips the Fib into support, ideally with help from a rising 200MA.
– Price waits for the 200MA to catch up, and they break the Fib together.
– Or, we get another panic dip, and the bounce comes after another test from below.
Whichever path it takes, we’ll be here watching it unfold.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.