BTC/USD Faces Key Support—What’s Next for Bitcoin? FenzoFx—Bitcoin dipped from its $112,000 monthly high, now trading near $104,900. Liquidity was swept, forming immediate support at $102,746.
Stochastic signals an oversold market, suggesting potential consolidation or an uptrend resumption. BTC/USD must close above $105,706 for bullish momentum, targeting $112,000.
A rejection at $102,746 may invalidate bullish outlooks, driving BTC toward $100,377.
Bitcointechnicalanalysis
Bitcoin life cycle-stage One ending-Next cycle has to start NOW
There are 3 things to see in this chart
1) The Orange Arc of resistance. I have talked about this previously but to recap a little, it has its origins in Oct 2009 and has rejected EVERY ATH since then, as you can see on the chart. The Arc itself is part of a Fibonacci Spiral.
This Arc has begun to Squeeze PA against the lower trend line, that was formed in 2011.
And we are now in a position where PA MUST react or get pushed below the Long Term line of support.
This could be called Make or Break time for Bitcoin.
The Apex of this pennant is around Jan 2026
PA always reacts before the Apex.....99% of the time.
2) The Vertical Coloured bars are Trend Based Fibonacci Time, It begins on the 1st ATH in the channel that Bitcoin created. This channel is shown in the chart below
See how the Runs to the 2017 & 2021 ATH were all in a Bullish Green zone and how PA never retouched the lower trend line of support in this time
Since Mid 2021, we entered a Bearish Zone.
On the main chart, you will notice how this Fib Time has just ended.
3) The Trend based Fibonacci Extensions. Every single ATH rejected off a Fib extension.
The Root is at the 2009 Low and 1 is at the First ATH in the Bullish Fib time Zone.
The numbers here are all based off the 3,6,9 number sequence.
Lets look a little closer at the weekly chart
As we can see, PA got repeatably rejected off this orange Arc of Resistance and Current PA has been up there, trying to break through since 2024.
Many people have also commented on how PA has been so subdued this cycle and could this be reflected in the Fib Time showing us that we are in a Red Bearish Zone.
See how, from Mid 2021, when we entered a Strong Red zone, PA took a Deep dive off the Nov 2021 ATH.
Also note how this zone ended in late 2022 and in Jan 2023, PA began its current cycle Run. See the change in Colour ?
And Currently, while Bitcoin tries to break out of this squeeze, we were in a Red zone again....that just ended.
AND we can also see that we have not yet reached the 6 Fib Extension at 120,251 usd
The situation we face here is that if PA gets rejected off that Fib line, having just broken through the Arc, we could get pushed right back down under the Arc again. It is VERY STRONG RESISTANCE
This next move from Bitcoin HAS to be strong enough to take us up to the 9 fib line at 180,391 usd at a minimum. This way we can use the 6 Fib extension as support when PA cools off from a big push and so remain above the Arc and begin the Next long term cycle.
The Daily chart below shows us where we are right now
You can see how PA has repeatably tried to break above the Arc and been rejected Firmly Every time...so far, PA has avoided going right back down to the Lower trend line and has remained in near distance to this Arc..But we are running out of Time.
Recent attempts by PA have been Strong and I am sure that we will make it over but the real question is can we also get over that 6 Fib extension and stay above.
The weekly MACD certainly has enough strength to cope
Should we have a subdued Summer trading on Bitcoin, we will see this MACD cool off and be stronger before a sustained push near Autumn maybe.
To conclude, Bitcoin is under pressure to move out of its First Full Cycle.
It is getting Squeezed and now it is time for Bitcoin to prove it can cope with its new found "Adulthood"
The Next Big push, maybe later in the year, could very realistically reach 200K or more and this would place us Above that 9 Fibonacci extension I talked about earlier.
Of course, events could change and we could see PA collapse back below the Arc.
If this happens, all is NOT lost but it would certainly weaken the case for Long Term holders to continue doing so.
This then could create a Snownall effect and prices may tumble....And I will buy MORE....
Either way, we are in a HUGE moment for Bitcoin and I am privileged to be able see this all unfold...
Lets see what happens but, for me, I am Still VERY Bullish though Cautious....
We may have to revisit low 70K in the near future if Pa cannot get over this Arc and the 6 Fib extension
Bitcoin DAILY & 4 hour charts show possible push in 10 days ?
First of all SORRY for all the lines.
This is a working chart but they are all relevant to this post.
Main chart is DAILY and shows ua the Pennant that we appear to be printing with the descending channel inside. The diagonal line falling is the Fib Circle we recently broke through.
See how, once above the fib circle, we slid down the outside, using it as support, as we often do.
Then we hit another line of support and that created this recent push higher.
Should we continue, we will most likely go to the upper trendline, towards that circle. Circle center is around Sunday 6th.
While we are still on the daily, see that Pennant Apex...that is a Week on Sunday, the 15th.
99% of the time, PA reacts BEFORE the apex.
Should things continue, we can expect to see a rise till end of weekend, Rejection back to lower trend line and then a Rise and maybe a push Out of the pennant to new highs.....OR, and I think this is very probable, we go back to around the ATH line ( blue Dash) and Dip back down again.
It is worth remembering that we have inflation data being released in the USA next week.
People will likely wait to hear ths before making to many big moves.
The Daily MACD offers some guidence on this also
MACD nearly back on Neutral and could bounce. The Dashed line is this sunday.
MACD could continue to drop below neutral, we shall have to watch this closely.
As I mentioned, in the short term, BTC likely to reach for this circle in the 4 hour chart below.
I will admit, I expected PA to reach this point in a differnent way as posted earlier in the week, But, Hey, we still getting there..
Should we get rejected there, as I expect we will, then a revisit to 103K before a push back.
But given the inflation figures, things could get very volatile next week so CAUTION
We can see on the 4 hour MACD how we have already been rejected of Neutral once and we are heading there again
The potential to push through the neutral line exists but.......
I do expect some volatility and so we need to be aware things could change rapidly.
The inflation data is a key. Depending on if it is drooping, rising or flat, this WILL effect the situation with regard to the FED Rate decision later this month.
So, we wait, with caution and expectations
Quick BITCOIN update using old Fractal chart - a small red June
Bitcoin appears to be taking a rest when it is strictly not required.
We are heading towards the 2nd dashed arrow, which as I pointed out months ago is a very possible and more realistic path for Bitcoin to take this cycle.
We have left the 2013 - 2017 Fractal and yet are likely to follow the idea of moving higher to a new ATH from this level off the Fractal.
PA entered that circle I drew back in Feb and is still in it right now, as we can see in the chart below
We can also see how PA has bounced off the 50 SMA on this daily chart.
This does NOT guarantee a continued move higher but it may offer some levels of support.
Should this fail, we do have various levels of support down to around 94K
I will refer back to a previous post and mention that to some extents, I am expecting a RED June. This does not need to be a Big candle, just 1 usd less than the open price wil create that.
104648 was the open price, so, we can easily stay above 100K and create that red candle.
Why do we want a red candle..?
Because, to put it simply, statistically, we have a better chance of continued monthly Green candles after a red june this time
I will attach the chart below so you can read about this in more detail.
This may or may not be good for ALTS>.... but I do not have many now.....just my preference
Bitcoin-is that it for now ? Lazy summer, take off in September?
Not posted this chart for a while but we may find it has become Very relevant to what to expect for the next few months
First thing to note is that PA is once again in TOP of range box and ALSO got rejected off the Long Term Blue line that has rejected BTC PA ATH since 2017. This also coincidened with the 1.618 Fib Extension.
Rejection here was highly likely and given how PA had pushed up, it is not surprising to see PA at least taking a breath.
For me, even though we do have the ability to push higher, I am not to sure we will just yet.
The weekly MACD could offer some credence to this idea
The Arrow points to an area that could turn out to be similar to what we are doing now.
The MACD has begun curling over after a prolonged push higher. While There was strength left, PA took a breath and regrouped.
The Chart below shows this period and how BTC PA reacted...and is circled
This was in Dec 2023 to Jan 2024.
PA had just had a sustained push higher and needed a break.and following a 7 week range, PA moved up another 67%
7 weeks from now brings us to near August.
There are charts that point towards a move in August / September
Here is another chart that offers some confluence to this idea.
The Dotted line is a line of support that PA has used as support numerous times this cycle and currently, is almost bang on the 50 SMA. Assuming that PA goes back down to that and bounces again, a 67% rise takes us back up to the Top of Range
Should we drop that far, to the 50 SMA again, we are in the 92K - 95K zone, scaring a LOT of people, wrecking Leverged players and putting Fear everywhere.
PERFECT FOR BUYING
This area also happens to be the 1.382 Fib extension on the main chart, the next Major line of support below us currently.
Should we fall through that, we reach the Bottom of Range and the intersection with the 50 SMA in.......August
So, we have to wait and see. We can push higher now but to do so would require breaking through that long term Blue line of resistance. I am not sure we can do that just yet.
Also, Should we post a RED June candle, Even a small one, the ideas in the Monthly candle post I recently posted also back up the idea of a lazy summer...... and a move higher around Mid to late August
Stay safe
Bitcoin Dominance, BTC ATH and ALT Seasons since 2017-some facts
There is little doubt now, that this Crypto cycle is very different from previous cycles and the main reason for this is the Bitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D) of the Market.
The reasons for this Dominance is complicated but we can certainly point towards the arrival of ETF's as one of the principle factors.
Corporations simply Buy Bitcoin, Hold it and Trade the ETF's - The Key Principle here being that the Coins are HELD Long term.
As we can see from the main chart, we have a key point in the BTC cycle called the Bitcoin Halving. To many extents, the explanation of this is not relevant right now.
But what you can see is how, previously, after the BTC Halving, we saw a drop in BTC.D,
This was due to the money Flow out of BTC and into ALT coins.
As more ALT coins were bought up, the demand drove the price higher and so their dominance increased, driving BTC.D down
This has not happened this cycle due to bulk buying of BTC for ETF's and BTC being Held Long term.
We can also see how , as we approached a certain time span After the Halving, we saw a sharp rise in BTC.D as we headed towards the next BTC ATH as the BTC buying picked up.
Again, this is not happening this cycle as the Bitcoins are being held long term.
What we can also see on the main chart is how we would normally be approaching a period of expected BTC ATH ( green vertical box )
And the HUGE question is, Will we get a Bitcoin ATH in this period ?
This is, to many extents, impossible to answer but as demand for Bitcoin continues and coins become harder to find, the price should continue to rise.
The tricky bit is, now, with a Bitcoin costing over 100K usd, it becomes harder to move the price. Only Corporations can afford to bulk buy.
So, again, things are different.. Retail is struggling to find a foot hold in the Bitcoin market, seeming to think that a Bitcoin is too expensive for them.....forgetting that they can buy a bit and that will also increase in price by the same %.
And so they look to the ALTs, fast volatile price rises and high returns,
This is seen very clearly in this chart that shows us when we had previous ALT seasons after the Halving
See how, after a period of time after Halving, the ALT Seasons appeared when the BTC.D dropped.
And that has simply just NOT happened this time.
It has to be said, it did try to appear. ALT season tried to happen.
See how after 210 days after halving this cycle, BTC.D did drop sharply but, it found a line of support and bounced back, Killing the ALT season dead in its tracks
There have been a lot of attempts since but the Market has been Bloody for ALTS, with sharp rise and Falls destroying confidence..... And Bitcoin continues to Rise.
So, where are we now ?
This Daily BTC.D chart may offer some ideas
BTC.D PA is currently at TOP of long Term range and finding it hard to get over that line of resistance.
BTC.D Weekly MACD , while not overbought, is curling over Bearish
BTC ATH's have previously been attained from Oversold areas as MACD Rose back higher.
The Volatility has gone and MACD is ranging smooth
SO, in conclusion, it is anybodies Guess right now if we will ever see an ALT season again.
Technically, on many fronts, we are poised, ready for it, even if it is a mini one.
But as we have seen on many occasions this cycle, Bitcoin is a very desired asset now and Demand drives price.....and so the Sell off that we need to drive an Alt season just may not occur.
One thing that is Absolutely certain though, we are highly likely to see another Bitcoin ATH
Stay safe everyone and Love one another. It is Free to do and is worth more than anything
Bitcoin - Fib circles Happen. PA knocked down a little.
Been warning you about this Fib circle coming up and now we know it is resistance... but how strong ?
We do not know just yet but we can lok to the left to see what happened last time.
Over pn the left, we can See PA droped for 7 days bwfore breaking away.
This could happen again and support is below.
The 4 hour chart gives us a better insight
PA has already found the first line of support and we currently have a small green candle.
Further support below at 104700 and 101700
If they fail, we have the 2.618 Fib extension at 98200 - This should be a strong line of support
If that fails, there is ther support and I will talk abou tthat when the time comes.
It is wise to be cautious with Bitcoin right now as the 4 hour and Daily MACD are Bearish.
This could change anytime and the Bullish "Sentiment" still exists
Bitcoin Dominance is dipping again but has the strength to bounce, so be cautious with the ALTS
More Soon
BITCOIN new week open Green - Will we get 8 weeks Green in a row
These are all WEEKLY chart
7 weeks in a row closed Green.
At Time of writing, Bitcoin is around 109800 usd
So Very Bullish and every possibility that this week will also close Green though we are getting near a point of resistance.
If we zoom into the same chart, we can see more detail
We are above the 2.618 Fib extension and we could return to the 103K zone to test this as support. We may need to do this as it has only ever been resistance previously.
We are also very close to a 618 Fib circle.( Blue )
We do not know if this is an area of strong resistance yet but PA is now in the area that we may react to it.
As a result of this Fib circle, we need to be prepared for the possibility of reentering that rising channel,
We may not do that ,The reasons being that PA still has enough strength.
The MACD - or Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is a technical analysis tool used in trading to identify momentum and trend direction.
The 2 vertical lines on the left are the 2021 ATH points, to give a comparison.
In this cycle we have had 2 previous peaks and then the cooling off period from OverBought.
The Cooling off were the periods were BTC PA ranged..
We are currently rising Bullish, with room to move higher but we should be aware that we are in the area that rejected the 2nd ATH in 2021. The daily is in a very similar position but getting choppy.
The RSI - Relative Strength Index, a technical indicator used to understand the momentum of a price trend . The RSI helps signal when to buy and sell in a trending market by identifying overbought or oversold conditions in a security.
Again, the Vertical lines on the left show you the 2021 ATH points as reference.
See how RSI peaks before BTC PA Peaks.
We have not been fully OverBought since March 2024. RSI is rising Bullish with Room to move higher, though, again, note how it is in an area were rejection has occurred previously.
The Mayer Multiple is a ratio used in trading that compares the current market price of an asset, such as Bitcoin, to its 200-day moving average (SMA) price.
This indicator is particularly useful for swing traders to find zones of extreme overbuys and
It is generally considered a bullish indicator when the price is above the long-term moving average ( Yellow ) and bearish when the price is below it, although significant deviations from the moving average can indicate overvaluation or undervaluation.
Again, take note of the vertical lines and were this Mayer Multiple was.
Again, the tendency is that when this Drops, BTC PA has Ranged to cool off and when it crosses above its Average, it leads to a High on the push higher.
And once again, remembering what has been said above, we need to wait to see if this crosses its average or get rejected by it.
But as you can see, the Average is more often used as support amd mpt resistance.
So, in conclusion, I remain Bullish but with a note of Caution till we get a push higher conformed.
We could see a pull back and , if that happens, this maybe the last sensible buying Zone for Bitcoin this time round. The Risk is increasing as more and more coins enter into good profit margins. People may get tempted to sell.
On a longer term , this month has confirmed a very bullish intent and we have one week to go before month end. I will expand on this on 2nd June
This week. we wait and see how Bitcoin will react.
Be Kind to others. The world Needs LOVE
BITCOIN 5 lines and 3 indicators to watch now we in new ground
I will be presenting a number of charts here and each has a different story to tell right now.
The 5 lines are All valid trend lines.
The Vertical lines are January year markers
The white line at the bottom is th e long term support line from 2013
The Dotted line is a threshold line
The Blue Arc is a line that has rejected EVERY ATH since 2013
The orange line is a marker that, once crossed has Always led to a New cycle ATH
The upper dashed line is the line of rejection of all ATH since 2017
The Weekly Bitcoin PA chart
Here we can clearly see how that Blue Arc has rejected PA previously. We can see how PA has reached a point of intersection and once it crosses that blue Arc, there is a line of rejection just above.
This Blue line needs to be crossed and held as support.
The Daily version of this chart shows ua how we have just crossed that blue Arc.
It also shows us how FRAGILE this is right now. PA is currently testing that Blue line as support
This needs to Hold. If we manage to hold this line and bounce, Stiff resistance is found around 120K
The following charts are showing the following indicators
The 3 indicators used are
RSI - Relative Strength Index. used to measure the speed and change of price movements
TSI - True Strength Index, used to indicate trend direction and overbought/oversold conditions.
ADX - The Average Directional Index (ADX) is used to measure the strength of a trend, not its direction
The 4 hour chart - short term expectations for the weekend
Bitcoin PA the Yellow line at the Top, the indicators are in the order listed above,
First thing to see here is how BTC PA is retesting that Blue Arc - this really needs to hold
RSI (blue) - OVER BOUGHT, It has fallen below its own MA ( average) and could easily drop further today. Looking back along this, we can see how the 4 hour RSI likes to range along the Neutral line, so we may see it drop back to that level today, tomorrow
TSI is also OVER BOUGHT. We can see when TSI is up here, PA ranges while it cools off. But there is room for one little push here if required
ADX ( yellow ) is high showing trend could be getting near exhausted, The orange line is the DI+. This shows positive prince direction, the Red one is DI- and shows that negative price direction is climbing slightly.
In the short term, we need to see PA hold above the Blue line but the likelihood is to possibly back below. There is support below.
The WEEKLY shows us that PA has the ability to continue for a while longer but we are getting near a point where PA needs to recover
Here we can see how the RSI and TSI are both up high, on the edge of OVER BOUGHT but with the ability to rise further.
What is VERY important to take note of here is that ADX.
It is Low, this is indicating that the weekly Trend has lost strength now. It could continue lower.
Remember, ADX DOES NOT SHOW TREND DIRECTION, JUST STRENGTH
So, the thing to see here is that we are in an area where we could see a New Trend begin. This trend could be either Bullish or bearish
On a weekly chart, this change can take a long time to appear in PA
And for the Longer Term, The Monthly Chart gives us hope for a fuhrer push higher for the rest of the year but one little warning bell
WE See Both RSI and TSI up high again, where they have been since 2024. But neither of them are up in OVER BOUGHT as much as they have been in previous cucle Tops.... So we can assume room to move higher.
But what does ring a bell is that ADX again. It is once again, in a place of Change and on this chart, showing that the current trend can start becoming weaker. However, DI+ has plenty of room to move higher
So, in conclusion, we see that BITCOIN has the ability to continue higher but in the short term, we may see a pause and possinle Volatility
Trends are about to change, This could take Weeks and PA can continue higher while a trend weakens.
For me. we are in the last few months of this cycle and at a point of Decision.
PA MUST get over that Blue Arc that has rejected Every ATH since 2013.
If PA fails this, we go back to sub 90K but this is unlikely,
There are numerous projections that see BTC PA in price discovery reaching the 120K before serious resistance.
On this chart, if PA follows pattern and trends, we could see 378K by year end
Getting over that irange line is KEY
Stay safe everyone.
Bullish Bitcoin Find ResistanceFenzoFx—Bitcoin remains bullish above the 50-period simple moving average but lost momentum near the $95,995 resistance. It currently trades around $94,650.
A breakout above $95,995 could trigger a move toward $99,560. Conversely, a close below $92,875 may lead to a drop toward $91,720, with further downside potential to $88,830 if selling pressure intensifies.
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Bitcoin Walks Into a Robust Resistance AreaFenzoFx—Bitcoin remains bullish above the 50-period simple moving average at around $93,950. A doji candlestick on the daily chart signals potential consolidation or a bearish move.
Resistance spans from $94,990 to $99,420, suggesting a possible reversal. We recommend waiting for Bitcoin’s reaction before planning a strategy.
Bitcoin Tests Critical Resistance Level: What's Next?FenzoFx—Bitcoin is testing the $88,650 resistance, a level it has rejected more than three times. The Stochastic and RSI 14 indicators remain in overbought territory, indicating short-term overvaluation. Entering the market at this price is not recommended.
If BTC/USD stays below $88,650, a consolidation phase may follow, with potential dips to $88,140 and $82,810.
Bullish Scenario
The bearish outlook is invalidated if BTC closes above $88,650, potentially resuming the uptrend toward $90,000.
Bitcoin Bulls Pave Path to $100,000FenzoFx—Bitcoin is trading bullishly, staying above the 50-period SMA and the 81,160 support. Currently, it hovers around $85,650, testing resistance.
As long as prices hold above 81,160, the next target could be $88,650. However, if bears push below $82,811, consolidation may occur, with support at 81,160.
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Bitcoin Double Bottom Pattern Came into PlayFenzoFx—Bitcoin jumped upward from $74,475 support as expected due to the formation of a double bottom pattern on the 1-hour chart, which is a bullish signal.
As of this writing, the price is stabilizing and testing the $81,160 mark as support. However, the 50-SMA on the 1-hour chart serves as the pivot point between the bull and bear market.
The next bullish target could be $84,730, followed by $88,000 if BTC holds above the discussed moving average.
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Bitcoin Price Forecast: Potential Bull Run in Q4 2024 & Q1 2025 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) currently holds a strong support level at $55,300. This key level presents a significant opportunity for potential gains. If the support at $55,300 fails, the next critical supports are at $52,000 and $48,500. Given the approaching bull run, we expect a bounce from these levels, particularly in Q4 2024 and Q1 & Q4 2025.
As with previous bull runs, we anticipate substantial volatility during this period. Remembering to exit the market around March or November 2025 is crucial, as the bull run is expected to conclude around this time.
Based on historical data and calculations, the Minimum target for Bitcoin in this bull run is $253,623. If Bitcoin flips the resistance at $253,623 by February 2025, we could see a maximum target of $275,780. Previous bull runs in 2013, 2017, and early 2021 exhibited unexpected price pumps, and we may witness similar volatility this time. While observing resistance zones, it's essential to keep trades active and plan to exit long positions by March or November 2025.
For more detailed analysis and insights, follow us on TradingView to stay updated with our latest ideas and benefit from our expertise.
$BTC Retests $60k w/ Strong Bounce / Post-Halving Pump IncomingThis was so incredibly obvious
Textbook retest / bounce ~$60k, a key psychological level for CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Daily close ~$61,5 should confirm next move up
IF this fractal plays out, we should retest prior highs ~$73,500 and then bounce back to support ~$68k about a week after the Halving
that will be a crucial level to hold for the next leg up, otherwise we'll prob stay in this $60-70k range for a bit
Bitcoin Looks for ONE MORE Possible Chance to BUY THE DIP!! Remember to Like, Comment, & Follow for more in-depth analysis! Share with your friends!
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I've seen too many doom and gloom posts for Bitcoin, and there are macro and micro bullish patterns being layered with more bullish patterns as we get closer to the Havening.
Bitcoin is in a descending parallel channel, but it is not a bearish distribution. The distribution is bullish due to the top of the channel being tested already 4 different times, and the bottom side of the channel has only been tested once. The more times a support or resistance level is tested, the weaker it becomes.
Bitcoin has also created a macro inverse head and shoulders pattern, and each shoulder and the head of that inverse head and shoulders pattern is its own inverse head and shoulders pattern. The most bullish bottoming pattern in trading was just created 4 times to create the bullish support in the 60k - 73K range. This range includes the bullish double top that was made in 2021, plus now, this inverse head and shoulders pattern is made up of an inverse head and shoulder pattern in each of the shoulders and the head. We are now
Even though we did not break out off the inverse head and shoulders pattern, we will continue to cool off indicators with another drop down to the 65K level, or potentially the 59.7k level. The only reason that we would drop down that far again after creating the bullish pattern we just made would be the fetish Bitcoin has with needing to hit the .618 Fib retracement level.
The .618 Fib retracement level sits at 59.7k. The head of the inverse head and shoulders wicks down under the .55 fib retracement but never reaches the .618 fib retracement level. Since we are in a descending parallel channel, it would allow it to hit that .618 Fib retracement level now while staying within this parallel channel.
Another bullish pattern bitcoin has made, is the macro bull flag. We had a major run-up, from 38.5k, where volume increase was consistent and noticeable, and we topped out at 73.5k (about +93% upward).
Just by extrapolating the percentage move and estimating where the second pole moves from the bull flag would finish. More importantly, it would be important to know where the starting point for the next runup is. It would be starting from the 59.7k (.618 fib retracement level) and then extrapolating +93% upward would put us at about $115k (which also is the 1.618 Fib Extension Level).
Another pattern I see that can occur is, as I said previously, we technically have not bounced off the .618 Fib Retracement level ($59.7k), which is the bounce point Bitcoin has a fetish for to be able to start another bullish move upward.
Currently, we sit in a position where we are 2 weeks away from the Bitcoin Halvening, which is the catalyst that starts the new Bitcoin Bull Market, where we make a parabolic move. There are at least 10 different bullish confluences of support within the range of $60k- FWB:73K , and the only bearish confluence is that the top side of the descending parallel channel we have has held any breakout above it from happening.
The move that I am possibly watching for would be one that lands us just shy of the $100k milestone.
The move would look possibly something like this, where the only way I could see this bullish confluence zone could become more BULLISH would be to make an eve & eve double bottom and create the second bottom with another inverse head and shoulders pattern. We would then break out to $73.5k peak and then around the same time as the halvening, we would look to break the peak and then use the .55 Fib Ext.Level and .5 FIb Ext Level to create a Bullish W-Breakout Pattern with making both bottoms re-test the previous peak of $73.5k. After re-testing both times, holding support above that previous peak, We would launch to the .618 Fib Ext Level, possibly re-test the top of the W breakout we just made, and then after, we would take a launch at the 1 Fib Ext. Level that sits at $93.8k.
Major key points would be:
-Drop to the .618 Fib Retracement level ($59.7k)
-Breakout bounce up to the .5 Fib Extension ($76.1k) or the .55 Fib Extension ($77.9k) of which breaks out $73.5k peak
-Minor Correction from the .55 Fib Ext and the .5 Fib Ext level down to re-test the $73.5k peak to create a Bullish W breakout pattern
-Breakout to either .618 Fib Ext ($80.3k) or the 1 Fib Ext ($93.5K)
Let me know what you think in the comments below! Which pattern do you see playing out?
1. Run-up to $115k
2. Run-up to $94k
Is This It?We have been bullish on Bitcoin for quite some time, as my previous posts can witness.
Looking for a potential upside resumption in place as we could now expect a series of wave threes and fours.
As always feel free to let me know in the comments what your thoughts on BTC are, if you enjoy the content, please leave a like.
Trade safe!
Bitcoin soon to BottomWe have been looking at this bullish count for several weeks now. The down move from around 31k seems to be corrective in nature therefore it could be a complex correction within a wave {ii}.
Looking for support to be found within the 28-30k area or else the count will be compromised.
Feel free to ask any question, trade safe!
Bitcoin Bull Market Fully Matures! Category 5 😮 What now?In this video we examine what happens after a Bitcoin bull market fully matures and stabilizes. We also explore the relationship between the timing of bull market maturity and the future halving price, and how this relationship may affect the price action moving forward. Thanks for watching!
Bitcoin wants it higher but bears dontBitcoin\1H consolidating after breaking the down wards parallel channel and making a new extreme to the upside ~23.6.It could go up to ~24.1 where a big liquidity cluster is and come back down after that.
**Next stop for bitcoin could be around 20500 where the CME Gap is**
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We yet have to see a flood down to around 20K or even 19K. With SPX testing the biggest resistant line as a support ,today after a retest it will lose it and flood down thus btc will follow .