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BOE

GBPAUD: Massive topping patternThe chart depicts a gloomy picture for this pair. It would seem as if the longterm uptrend is coming to an end and possibly falling sharply in the coming days, weeks and maybe months. I'm using the forecasted weekly uptrend top as a stop location, but we can also use 3 atr%, which would be a 1.2% stop to stay safely in this trade. I'll enter a small position now, and look to scale in along the way. Will also add a zoomed out daily chart to show the monthly signal and the bigger picture view with s/r levels and whatnot. What is specially attractive, other than the patterns and time at mode signals, is that today will be a very heavy news day for this pair, so I suspect we will see a VERY sharp move down take place after the NY close. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
37
GBPUSD: Keep a close watchThe move off the lows here has been really strong, but after closer inspection it might be comprised of 3 waves. In any case, there's a time at mode target in the daily that has been exceeded, and time will expire soon. Watch that date for a reaction, and a possible retracement or reversal. It'll be key to sync the entry with a fundamental event, in order to have the news boost our trade. Price has been rejected by a very low volume resistance level, but hasn't reversed yet, and there are still a few days left in the uptrend, so I'd suggest being patient here. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
EURGBP: Decisive momentThe next move will confirm what lies ahead: For the time being, price is above the long term fair accepted price, which is bullish, but to confirm uptrend continuation from here we need to break above the resistance from the previous downtrend signal's mode, as well as break out from the channel, to confirm the move is a larger impulse series. The uptrend target was almost reached, but there is lots of time left in the timer, so it might either reverse steeply down from here, or continue to rise after a brief cooldown. Will update when I get a trade signal out of this chart. Cheers, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
12
GBPUSD: Is the Pound a buy? I suspect so.As the title implies, I'm tempted to go long GBPUSD, and other GBP crosses (like GBPNZD). Fundamentals have been consistently good overall, but there's fear in the air surrounding the uncertainty of the coming elections results. The recent polls towards the May 7th elections imply a tie between the Conservative and Labour parties, and the possibility of both losing ground to smaller ones, like the SNP in Scotland. The rally here has been unexpected, and the last correction the result of bad news, so I don't discount bullish continuation as the next move. Price is flirting with a historical support level, which is the most frequent price in the monthly chart since 1999 or so. If the move above this level resumes, this might be the start of a strong uptrend. I'll update with my entry. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
31
GBPJPY: Extended fifth wave advance and time at mode short setupWe can observe a clear five wave advance from the lows, with wave 5 being the largest, almost reaching 1.618 of the distance from point 0 to wave 3 high, which is the typical distance wave 5 travels. These extended fifth waves often produce a very sharp and steep retracement that swiftly moves price down to wave 5's second wave, or even wave 4 of the whole advance. Rgmov is showing clear divergence, which is a strong bearish signal, while we also observe a time at mode uptrend target expired, and one more larger timeframe target about to expire at the open on Sunday. I'll place a short fine tuning the entry from the 1h chart on Sunday. Good luck! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
GBPJPY update: targetsAn addendum to my previous 'Waiting for the perfect short' chart. This chart describes the different projection techniques that I used to determine targets and potential retracement zones in this pair. I'm short from 177.569, with a break even stop and will scale in every chance I get. This corrections will be easily foreseeable using time at mode in lower timeframes, and I'll update with them in due time. I expect to hold this trade open until the weekly signal expires at least.
Short
by IvanLabrie
29
GBPJPY: Waiting for the perfect shortAs the title describes, I'll publish a suggested short entry once my setup confirms. For the time being observe the price action and how the selling is outweighing the buying on each swing. This is inherently bearish, and to make things worse for the bulls, Tim West's proprietary indicator RgMov is plotting new lows and a strong downtrend on the daily chart, ahead of price which is currently ranging. The weekly chart shows intense coiling, which will eventually lead to an explosive move to the down side. I'll update the chart with entry, exit and stop loss values once it confirms. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
32
GBPCAD 4 HOUR LONGPRICE AT AN IMPORTANT KEY LEVEL AND JUST BOUNCED OFF THE RESISTANCE TURNED SUPPORT FORMING A DOUBLE BOTTOM. ALSO THIS KEY LEVEL IS IN CONFLUENCE WITH THE 0.5 FIB LEVEL. GBP AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT BETTER AT 2.2% AND THE REASON WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE THE BOE (BANK OF ENGLAND) SAID THEY'LL BE MONITORING HOURLY EARNINGS DATA. IF THIS DATA DOES COME OUT GOOD WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT STRENGTH IN THE POUND. A BREAK OF THE COUNTER TRENDLINE WE COULD EASILY REACH TO THE SWING HIGHS AS I BELIEVE THE UPTREND IS STILL VERY MUCH IN TACT.
Long
by remelthomas
GBPUSD: Fundamental shockwavesIn this chart I decided to focus on timing momentum via the use of fundamental events. These are the pieces of information the market will be expecting before deciding in its direction. The events in red are the ones that will create the strongest volatility when announced, non-farm payrolls and the interest rate decision by the BoE. Smaller news mostly have an impact on retail traders who create the small momentum surges we see here, while the larger timeframe trader (institutions and large speculators) continue in the direction they had established before, which created the trend in the first place. Small surges of supply create the peaks and troughs, but paradigm shifts will be fueled by fundamental events, observable in the chart as well. As long as the 1.54 level holds, and if we see price move away from it, upwards, I expect cable to rally further, easily reaching 1.58 in the short term. Let's see how this unfolds, shall we?
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
Potential Reversal To 101.493 | $JPY $USD $Nikkei #BOJ #forexSYNOPSIS: Potential Reversal - Condition: 115.551 failure - Opens to: 1 - TG-Lo =104.750 - 05 JAN 2015 and 2 - TG-x =101.493 - 05 JAN 2015 Structural Relevance applies to latter ("TG-x =101.493 - 05 JAN 2015") (Note that separate analysis on the UDX and USDollar index were denounced as potential bearish reversal contenders per predictive model - See third link attached below for these analyses.) STANDARD GEOMETRY: A projection of parallels define a plausible bearish channel, whose upper projection caps the most recent bullish impulse. The overall system defines a bearish channel with multiple validation points at specific R/S levels and gaps, adding credence to these lines. Still, a set of condition remains to be met, as defined below. ELLIOTT WAVES: Recent rally appears to have reached a plausible 5th wave extension with internal dynamics of a completed impulse. A rallying to higher highs would cancel this proposition, but a break below 115.551 would add credence to further downside. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING: Predictive model has defined the targets just mentioned above. As indicated, the first nominal target calls for a low-probability attainment and high-probability reversal at 104.750. However, a worst-case scenario played out in the model comes defined as TG-x = 101.493. This latter low-probability target/very-high-probability reversal falls in line with a significant historical R/S level, as highlighted in the chart. OVERALL: Standard technical pattern, predictive model and two-degree wave count point to a potential resistance at recent structural high of 121.838. If recent support at 115.551 fails, the floor would open possibly to the predictive model's forecasts of TG-Lo = 104.750 and TG-x = 101.493. These bearish outlook corroborate well with recent bearish forecast against the USD. For the time being, the directional bias remains set at "Neutral" based on mitigating reasons defined above. Stay tuned, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
by 4xForecaster
48
Long GBPAUD - Fundamentals and Technical matchesEntered Long GBPAUD at 1.83295 (200-Hour Smoothed MA and also 23.6% of 1.72134-1.86828) Fundamental: With BoE minutes/ RBA Speech/ Australia CPI inflation coming out, volatility should ensue. USD weakness has caused both GBP and AUD to be at elevated levels. Feels AUD more so after better than expected China GDP, IP, etc. numbers. Technical: AUDUSD has been in consolidation since start of the month, whilst GBPUSD looks more likely to look for a retracement after the swift fall. Daily chart as above also showed a bullish flag pattern on the GBPAUD pair (credits to EagleTrades - link below) Both 100 and 200 DMA are trending upwards SL right below 200 DMA which coincides with previous high in August (1.81866) TP1/2 at 1.8600/80 respectively
Long
by Speculator2
Higher rates thoughts push down EurStay short EurGbp or, if you prefear, long GBP! Since the macro economic data started to improve, the pressure on the exchange rate has became stronger. The beginning of rates normalization will make the UK's currency more expansive versus the Euromoney. At the same time, the chart seems to confirm the bearish view: It is unlikely (given also the macro-analysis) that the price will brake-up the current level @0.7895, looking also at the RSI oscillator (in 60 area), we have no signs of bullish trend beginnin. My view is that the price will continue its down trend, following the channel you can clearly see on the charts. Take care of 0.78 area that could be a strong point of inversion or continuation of the trend.
Short
by NicoS
BoE & GBPJPY IdeaIt remains that the ongoing improvements in unemployment, a lagging economic indicator, coupled with a solid recovery should eventually lead to a rise in wage growth. As a result, the current weak earning growth may not reflect the current health of the job market as it is an even more lagging indicator than unemployment. Furthermore, the 2-3% rise in the national minimum wage in October could be a catalyst for broader wage growth while supporting household consumption. As the recovery is expected to remain strong while the job market continues to improve, the BoE stays positioned to be the first major central bank to start its tightening cycle. British pound weakness unlikely to continue - Eye on GBPJPY The British pound has weakened as the odds to see a hike before year-end has decreased. However, the relative supportive monetary policy should support the Sterling in the longer-term. As a result, I do not consider this weakness as a trend reversal but as a temporary countertrend move. A long position in GBP/JPY remains an attractive vehicle to be exposed to a renewed strength in Sterling. My recommendation : Buy GBPJPY above 171.50 stop @170.45 ,Target1 173.80 & Target1 174.60 , Good Luck
Long
by AymanKhlifatb7