𝗡𝗮𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $NG_F Daily. Seasonal Top? Interesting look where bearish divergence could imply we peak seasonally a month earlier than the previous 2 years 🤔
$UNG $BOIL $KOLD #NatGas #OOTT #Commodities #Trading
BOIL
BOIL ETF Bullish inclined Naked Puts 20 Aug ExpiryBoil is a new ETF that I am trading to shield myself from inflation concerns. So far it has only risen even when inflation concerns are impacting the market negatively, even oil and gold saw drops.
I entered two trades with one being tighter than the other (Trade 2), with a bid to get a better price at a strike supported by a strong resistance and bullish momentum. Still in hindsight I think this is a tad too aggressive. Will not do this again.
BOIL is based on Natural Gas Futures.
Prices for the fuel are soaring across the globe as scorching weather stokes demand for electricity to run air conditioners.
In the U.S the rally is also underpinned by concern about a potential supply shortfall in the winter, when gas consumption peaks as homes and businesses crank up the heat. Stockpiles are already below normal for the time of year, and production growth has been restrained
Gas only makes up 34% of total US energy consumption
Trade 1
Sold 12 Puts @ 0.90 Strike 34
Max Gain: Est $1080
% Distance to Strike: 20%
Trade 2
Sold 23 Puts @ 1.20 Strike 38
Max Gain: Est $2760
% Distance to Strike: 7.82%
Total BP Block: 75K
$KOLD Target 33.99 for 52.28%$KOLD Target 33.99 for 52.28%
If you know anything about Natty and my setups with natty you KNOW this will happen… kind of like this… perhaps with a little adjustment.
I did add some yesterday but was unable to update... sorry y'all...
I really kind of miss UGAZ / DGAZ right now…
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On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
ONLY ADD at support levels & FIB levels… labeled
I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
$KOLD LET’S GO $KOLD LET’S GO
I mean it this time. Nat Gas can't hold over 4 for that long? 😬 right?
WATCHING $BOIL for ENTRY TARGET @ 31.90WATCHING $BOIL for ENTRY TARGET @ 31.90
I'll re-post when it get's closer if it goes that way
Look to the right. ENTRY target in grey. Sell target in green. Double position target in red. That’s it.
BOOM!!! TARGET HIT @ 26.76 for 32.08% Profit in 66 daysTARGET HIT @ 26.76 for 32.08% Profit in 66 days
I already have a position in KOLD and if you don't now would be a good time... GOOD GAME.
$BOIL Target 26.76 for 32.08% $BOIL Target 26.76 for 32.08%
Or next add level is at 13.76
I meant to publish this last night but fell asleep. Target still holds...
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On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
I start every position with 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
Still on track so far --> $BOIL Target 26.76 for 32.08% $BOIL Target 26.76 for 32.08%
Or next add level is at 13.76
So far so good… I sure do love trading Natty
On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
$BOIL Target 26.76 for 32.08% Or next add level at 13.76$BOIL Target 26.76 for 32.08%
Or next add level at 13.76
I started this BOIL position after selling KOLD yesterday. Let’s see what happens. Go Natty.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
TARGET HIT @ 40.96 for 17.43% Profit in 49 days. TARGET HIT @ 40.96 for 17.43% Profit --- Yikes, long hold for 17.43% (49 days) but hey, natty is like that sometimes and other times you can get 17% in two days, so no complaints here.
I took profits today. . . The target was set when I bought it 49 days ago.
GL to those who sell higher…
Short-term Spring ShortNatural Gas got a nice boost from colder weather. Looks about ready to crumble in the next month or so.
I am short April(J) @ 2.81
Worst case on this is if weather defies it's tendency to flip bearish and the longer time frame trend line is targeted. But, it will take a lot to push past the highs at $3.00 (April). In which case adding another short there could work.
Bearish inverted hammer on yesterday's move signals selling is strong and this is the top of a channel.
Red box shows that upside risk and below there are a couple gaps that look promising.
Trading is risky, don't do it.
I am still long August(Q), EQT, RRC and would add on significant dips on any of those.
𝗢&𝗚 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $XOP Weekly. Moving Averages and VolumeMoving averages and volume in and of themselves can tell an interesting story. Is a Wave 3 under way in a new bull?
$DRIP $GUSH $XLE $CL_F $USO $NG_F $UNG $BOIL #Trading #ElliottWave #CrudeOil #OOTT 🛢️
Natural Gas --- ( 2 0 2 1 ) Swing TradeAlas! I am free to post what I want thanks to the help of everyone's contribution thumbs.
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The Natural Gas setup for 2021 is not only fundamentally bullish, it's a technical trader's gassy dream.
Welcome to the G a s i n o.
Macro View
From a macro view we can see that prices are now at the bottom of a historically supportive range. The previous deviations that dipped below this range were due to the bearish sentiment as production was trending up. This is no longer the case. Sentiment has now flipped cautiously bullish as supply/demand balance is expected to remain tight.
Bullish Indicators
First, we can see the weekly MACD is decisively bullish and above the zero line. This confirms momentum is going to likely remain bullish longer term.
Secondly, looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the indicator below the MACD, we see that Asset Managers and Speculators are more interested in long positions than usual. Should be plenty more next year.
Thirdly, prices are maintaining above the 50 week EMA.
Not to mention the inverse head and shoulders that is under construction. You heard it here first.
The Trade Setup
Now, if we overlay two important contracts for Summer(orange) and Winter(blue), we can start extrapolating potential targets. Current prices for either one are at the bottom of the range. This is what large speculators are looking at. This is where I am going to start accumulating starting with Summer. In addition, I am also buying dips of EQT as producers will benefit from stronger prices over the next couple years.
Looking at the August 2021 contract, prices have broken out of the down trend.
Today, in anticipation of a large swing trade next year, I opened a starting long position on the mini contract (QGQ2021) @ $2.78
I welcome dips and estimate a sell target somewhere well north of $3.00
TBD
Trading is risky, don't do it.
Long EQT and
QGQ2021 +1 @ 2.78
Natural gas down trend continueAs you can see lower highs and lower lows are being made and rsi is being reset every time when at or near oversold condition. I’m calling for continue low... it has a little bit more room to go up before dropping again. Furthermore I believe it’s confirmed with the weekly rsi with plenty of room left before going oversold. Natural gas tends to hit oversold on the weekly which is usually a strong signal for a trend reversal. Conclusion I believed the trend is still trending lower with lower lows and lower high as evidence of rsi reset with weekly rsi still in a dow trend. Breaking above the last lower high would disapprove this.
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Rebounded on Feb 2021 RollNatural Gas prices rebounded after dropping earlier in the week from $2.5 to $2.25 on warm weather. Prices rebounded on tight balances, oversold technical conditions,
and roll into February 2021 contract. Support is expected to hold, as LNG flows are above 11 Bcf/d and balances are tight, with last draw at -152 Bcf.
Technical Analysis: 4 Hr chart shows oversold condition. Support is seen at $2.25. However, double bottom is still possible, before going higher around January 10.
Potential price target for the next leg up is $2.75 - $2.8. Upside potential for NG and BOIL may be limited due to roll into lower March 2021 contract on January 22 -27.
Fundamental Analysis: Bullish picture with tight balances and potential for a deficit is possible going into 2021. Lower 48 state production lost -4 Bcf/d vs. 2020,
while gas exports increased +4 Bcf/d, resulting in net increase in demand of 8 Bcf/d. Lower 48 production is expected to remain at 91 Bcf/d, while LNG flows and
Mexico exports will total 16 Bcf/d. HFIR energy believes, that forward curve is underpriced at avg. of $2.58/MMBtu. Should weather turn colder after January 11, 2021,
as projected by NatGasWeather, we may see NG prices bounce back to $2.7-$2.8 levels. Cash prices are likely to go much higher during winter. However, NG and BOIL,
will start rolling into lower March contract around January 22 -27, which may bring futures prices back to their current support level at $2.3-$2.5 at that time.
Overall picture for NG in 2021 is bullish, given lower production and higher LNG demand and exports remain in place. Traders are bullish EQT and BOIL (day trade).
Short sellers will still have their opportunities on selling 4 Hr tops. KOLD is an inverse daily ETF, that does well during March - April contract timeframe.
Natural Gas - Long Setup ( Near-term )Price action suggests a winter pop is on the horizon.
Target Profit: 8%
The time frame for this trade is about a month so I will be using the March contract ( NGH2021 )
Technicals
This week Natural Gas initially sold off but traders eventually bid prices back up to form a bullish hammer which now sits just above a previous support level. In addition, the weekly RSI is near the lows and starting to curl up indicating a reversal is on the way.
Looking a bit closer at the daily chart, it is clear the downtrend is broken and the MACD is showing momentum is starting to shift.
Targets
Now that the bullish technicals are confirmed I'll use Fibonacci retracements to find a good sell target, measuring from the top to recent low. Conventionally this should be somewhere between the 0.5 and 0.618 with 0.236 now acting as support. If prices close below this level then it's time to reassess. For now the target is about $2.9ish.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long QGH2021
+1 @ 2.68
NG: UNG: boil: Natural Gas Looking for a Bottom - Mid DecemberNatural Gas futures dropped disproportionately to fundamentals on lower national demand in the first half of December and slightly higher recent production.
However, NatGasWeather forecasts for the storage draw covering next three weeks are not as bearish as the drop in gas prices. LNG flows are consistently
bullish exceeding 10.5 bcf/d. The fundamentals are still strong. It seems that bullish traders are waiting for colder weather patterns to settle in before driving
prices higher.
If we get the forecasted warming next week, the prices may go lower. Expected trough at around December 9-12.
Technicals: The 4 Hr chart is oversold. Yet, this condition may persist for another week. The double bottom is more likely before going higher.
Per NatGasWeather Report:
EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Report Outlook: EIA Weekly Report
Week 1 – December 10 -70 to -80 Bcf Slightly Larger vs Normal Draw
(Nov 27-Dec 3)
Week 2 – December 17 -80 to -90 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw
(Dec 4-10)
Week 3 – December 23 -85 to -100 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw
(Dec 11-17)
NatGasWeather.com Forecast
5-Year Average -61 Bcf -105 Bcf -127 Bcf
Natgas - head and shoulders needs to break neckline$2.6 is the neckline, if it breaks look for the .618 Fib level at $2.34 . Warm weather in the major centers like NYC and LA , also La Nina weather system this winter. KOLD is the stock to short NG or buy UNG puts. I think UNG goes to $2, GL!
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Oversold, Roll into January ContractNatural gas futures NG moved higher as it started rolling into January contract on Nov 20. Technical conditions are oversold on 4 hr chart. We have an unfilled gap at $3.1 level, a possible target for an upside move. Weather forecasts into early December are less bearish than last week, but still alternate shots of cold air with periods of warming.
Next week EIA report is expected to be on a bullish side, a draw of about 20 Bcf, as demand exceeded supply for the period ending Nov 18. Expecting a gradual move to higher prices, unless weather forecasts change showing more cold temperatures coming.
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Looking for Support NG: Natural gas NG contract may find its support at $2.6 level before moving higher into January contract. Prices dropped on warmer weather forecast Nov 18 -Dec 2. From technical perspective, NG is approaching oversold condition on 4 Hr chart. Lower prices are still possible due to bearish EIA report on Nov 19, as built is expected on the backdrop of low demand through November 20. However, roll into January contract Nov 22 - 25 may provide support for this transition into colder temperatures starting first week of December. Should NG start rolling into January as early as November 19, the dip may not be a slow as expected due to warm weather.
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas testing support before moving higherFundamentals remain bullish. NG Natural gas futures are getting ready for December roll. November contract made a rally up to $3.1 on Wednesday and now is testing support at $2.97 - $2.95 level. A three dollar price level needs some digestion. To break above $3.2 December price will require support from colder weather forecasts and higher LNGs. Rise in seasonal demand is confirmed by weather forecasts for the second half of November and into December - January. Last week in October forecast has now turned colder predicting high national demand for the next week (NatGasWeather). Supply/demand balance is tightening. LNGs are at 8-8.5 bcf/d with expectations to increase to 10 bcf/d within the next a couple of weeks.
Technicals are pointing toward a pullback before the roll begins and prices move higher. Currently, support for November contract is seen at $2.97-$2.95 level. Even if lower prices are seen on Friday, the dip may represent a buying opportunity before the roll.
NATURAL GAS EXPLOSIVE ACCUMULATIONNatural gas has been under pressure for quite some time. As a whole, the energy sector has been beaten down severely and is historically cheap. I do not believe this will last. We can certainly have another big drop and even take out March lows but I wouldn't count on it. There are some BIG BIG BIG changes heading our way and we will look back on these days and regret not paying closer attention to energy.. Look at what's cheap.. look at what's expensive.
BTW, we're at a critical junction here. There's a 3x hidden bear divergence that has been respected on weekly timeframe. I think this could push price lower. I sure hope so. But big picture is wildly explosive.
here's a chart on XLE to XLK (energy compared to tech). What do you think is the better deal?
