Bitcoin and rest of the market in accumulationHi guys lots of mixed signals going around the market at the moment ,which generally indicates big investors wanting to buy in at a cheap price
as it shows we have already hit the bear market bottom and through some TA and FA we can make a call that our position is long
-RSI has a hit a strong oversold region and is also indicating a strong bullish divergence in the 4 monthly
-Market cap has hit the top of the 2018 market and therefore the bottom cap for the 2022 of 850bil
-Overall volume is indicative of Huge amounts of oversells leaving bears liable for long positions within 4-8 month positions
overall expect all short positions in the next 6 months to get absolutely lit up current volume depth is growing
alt market will be prime for yearly long positions entrys right now with most coins being able to 4-8x within the next bull market.
BTCEUR
Bitcoin - The market is poised to go SouthTwo days ago, we projected the downward sloping channel on the daily chart of BTCUSD. Since then, the price broke to the upside and retraced back to the channel, increasing the upper bound's significance (and again validating the pattern). Meanwhile, the market sentiment started to turn bearish, with many market participants giving up on hopes of the FED's pivot. As we also do not believe the FED will backtrack on its monetary policy in 2022, we think the mood is set to turn very grim in the month of September.
Because of that, we will pay close attention to the FED's decision on the 21st September 2022. We expect the FED to raise interest rates from 50bps to 75bps, which will negatively affect the economy. As a result, we think the risk-on appetite will deteriorate and lead to high selling pressure. However, we will update our thoughts on that before the meeting.
In terms of other fundamental factors, we see mounting evidence that the world has entered a global recession, with many real economies starting to feel it. Moreover, with central banks around the globe pursuing the destruction of demand, we think the evidence over the coming months will be even more apparent.
Meanwhile, technical factors also point to the downside across various sectors; and across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. That bolsters our bearish conviction and makes us stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. However, we think the cyclical low might lie far below our price targets. Again, though, we will reassess our thoughts as the trend unravels.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the most recent technical developments on the daily chart of BTCUSDT. Yellow arrows indicate two bearish breakouts below prior support levels, a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, and a bullish breakout above the channel followed by the retracement. Additionally, the green arrow indicates increasing volume, which is ideal for confirming our bearish thesis. Now, we will pay close attention to the price action; ideally, we would like to see it take out its recent low at 19 510 USD.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Additionally, several bearish developments are indicated by yellow arrows. Declining and increasing volume is shown by red and green arrows. We would like to see a breakout below the immediate support to confirm our bearish thesis.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The chart above shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD; for this pair, the low needed to be taken out is 19 526 USD.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - No longer bullish, top in for the rally During the last week, we gave market participants an ultimate warning about the impending reversal in the market. Soon after we argued the top of the bear market rally might be in, Bitcoin fell more than 15%.
A change in our short-term view is mainly influenced by technical factors, which point to the return of intense selling pressure. Indeed, we believe the current selloff will soon escalate into panic mode in the cryptocurrency sector. As a result, we expect highly elevated volatility and Bitcoin to drop to a new low.
Our medium-term and long-term views remain unchanged as we expect bearish fundamental factors to stay persistent throughout 2022 and 2023. Additionally, we believe that the recession will bring risk-off sentiment, wreaking chaos in the stock market as well as the cryptocurrency market.
Because of these reasons, and the ones described in our previous ideas, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows two bearish breakouts below prior support levels. Additionally, a build-up in volume accompanying a price drop is indicated on the bottom; this development is the ideal picture we wanted to see in order to confirm our bearish thesis.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bearish. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows another bearish breakout below the sloping support, further bolstering the bearish case for BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.03
Above is the setup we introduced recently.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - BTCUSD is headed to new lows!Over the weekend, Bitcoin's deceitful price action left many bulls hoping for a bounce on a Monday. Indeed, many analysts rushed to forecast another bottom and continuation of the rally, basing their calls merely on little gains during Saturday and Sunday. However, right after the futures market opened, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies quickly erased their early gains.
At this point, Bitcoin erased approximately half of its recent rally. It is currently down about 17% from its peak on 15th August 2022 (when we argued that the top of the bear market rally was in). Today, we maintain the same notion and are extremely bearish in the short term. Indeed, several technical developments support our opinion and point to the impending acceleration of the selloff.
As for the medium-term and long-term outlook, fundamental factors like higher interest rates, quantitative tightening, and the global economy slowing down do not allow us to change our bearish view.
Now, we will pay close attention to the support level at 20 700 USD. If it is broken to the downside, that will further bolster the bearish case for BTCUSD. Additionally, we will watch a volume level; ideally, we would like to see more build-up in it, accompanying further price drop.
In accordance with our outlook, we maintain price targets for BTCUSD at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows our assessment of particular price levels and how bearish they are. Yellow arrows indicate developments we used as confirmations for our thesis. The green arrow shows an ideal picture of volume and what we would like to see occur again.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bearish. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- is bearish too. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.01 shows another bearish breakout that helped us to assess BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITCOIN - Similar To December 2018 ?Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
This is not the longest that BTCUSDT has been trading underneath the Moving Average. During December 2019 until the next year, BTC spent 36 WEEKS underneath the Moving Averages. Noteworthy that this was the 50d MA (due to the lack of data, there was no 100d or 200d). Currently, we're trading underneath the 200d MA. However, this can still signify that range trading for a period of time may be the most likely scenario. We still see high volume on the chart and the RSI shows sideways to slightly lower is the most probable for the foreseeable future. USUALLY (not always) there is a Xmas rally, or a December rally. It should be interesting to see if we find our reversal during the month of December, or if we continue to decline and start another bullish cycle during Q1 next year in 2023.
I'm labeling this BTC post as short even though I don't believe shorting it is a good idea right now, simply because it seems more likely for the price to go slightly lower than higher (judging by the RSI). There will be the occasional, unpredictable wick back up towards the MA but the price will continue to trade underneath until a clear bottom is established.
Incase you're interested in XRPUSDT, check out this idea 👀
Have a great weekend🥂
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Bullish thesis for BTCThe last couple of months seems to have invalidated my previous idea, I'm inclining more towards this one.
BTCUSD will make a new low,
BTCEUR will not and probably mark the bottom.
Be safe.
BTC: 5 bearish reasons (2/5)Hi all! Why do I think the crypto bear market is not over yet? Keep reading...
This is serial of 5 BTCUSD ideas (with 5 bearish agruments) released one after another one at a time after reaching following criterions: This idea needs to get at least 30 likes (just click the 🚀 button) and 20 comments (mine included, just say "thanks" whatever) in order to "unlock" the next idea which I will publish (also here in comments) once the criteria are met and as soon as I can.
1st post of the series met the criteria, so now let's move on!
REASON #2: Bear Flag
So Bitcoin reached the all-time high @ 69K, dumped hard to 33K (flag pole), bounced as high as 48K and then dropped back down to 37K (consolidation). All that price action formed Bear Flag pattern (which is continuation formation) with target @ 12200. Clear break down out of the flag triggered the pattern. Now we are far away from the breakout point but on the other hand we are still quite far away from the pattern target. I mean from 20K to 10K it's still -50%, which is the same as from 40K to 20K. Anyway ... what do you think? Boost and comment in order to "unlock" the next (3/5) BTC bearish reason! Cheers!
Check my other stuff in related ideas.
Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺!
⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
BTC: 5 bearish reasons (1/5)Hi all! Why do I think the crypto bear market is not over yet? Keep reading...
This is serial of 5 BTCUSD ideas (with 5 bearish agruments) released one after another one at a time after reaching following criterions: This idea needs to get at least 30 likes (just click the 🚀 button) and 20 comments (mine included, just say "thanks" whatever) in order to "unlock" the next idea which I will publish (here in comments) once the criterions are met and as soon as I can.
So let's get started!
REASON #1: Head and Shoulders
You probably saw this already elsewhere but...the devil is in the details (i.e. target can differ), also it's still absolutely legit. So Bitcoin reached the all-time high @ 69K, dumped hard to 42K, bounced and then dropped back down to 43K. All that price action formed Head and Shoulders pattern (which is reversal formation) with target @ 10200. Break of the neckline and several backtests (red arrows) with rejections just added to the pattern validity. Now we are far away from the breaking point (neckline) but on the other hand we are still quite far away from the pattern target. I mean from 20K to 10K it's still -50%, which is the same as from 40K to 20K. Anyway ... let me know in the comments what do you think. Boost and comment in order to "unlock" the next (2/5) BTC bearish reason! Cheers!
Check my other stuff in related ideas.
Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺!
⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Bitcoin - Low volume foreshadows upcoming liquidity issues The price of Bitcoin stayed flat over the weekend. Additionally, nothing significant has occurred in the cryptocurrency market; therefore, we have no reason to change our bearish views on BTCUSD. This week, we will continue to pay close attention to volume levels hovering around monthly lows and reflecting a little interest in Bitcoin among new investors, making it impossible to reverse the primary trend from bearish to bullish.
Despite that, we continue to see an increase in false calls for the market bottom. That confirms no capitulation has occurred, and indeed, retail investors continue to buy dips, feeding wild rallies predestined to fall later. We expect this behavior to persist throughout the second stage of the bear market, increasing overall volatility.
Additionally, we expect the same from the FED pursuing another rate hike in November 2022. Accordingly, we think this will worsen economic conditions and lead to another selling frenzy. Thus, we remain committed to our price targets and expect them to be hit by the year's end. After that, we expect the market to start slowly progressing into the third stage of the bear market, characterized by the distress selling and abandonment of hopes and dreams among those who once fed the bubble.
Our price targets are 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow shows declining volume, hinting at liquidity issues in the system. To confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanying a decline in the price.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bearish; however, the trend is still weak.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow points to the exhaustion we presented a few days ago. Interestingly, the price halted its rise slightly above the 50-day SMA.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Spot Bull & Bear phases thanks to the USDT & USDC Dominance 🎯By using Technical Analysis on the USDT.D + USDC.D chart, compared to the Bitcoin chart, it becomes easy to spot Bull and Bear phases, let's have a look :
What we can see :
- Thanks to this parallel channel we can see that every time the USDT/C dominance reaches the top of the channel, Bitcoin starts a new Bull movement. And every time the USDT/C dominance chart reaches the bottom of the channel, Bitcoin starts a new Bear movement.
- As you can see, sometimes it did not reach the top or the bottom of the channel, BUT the Tenkan and the Kijun can give you the directions!
What we can expect :
- Next bull movement for Bitcoin is gonna happen once USDT/C dominance loses the Tenkan + Kijun and breaks the median line ! On the other hand Bitcoin must regain and close above its Tenkan.
- Always remember that Technical Analysis has its limits and the macroeconomic events must prevail over all analyzes, for any asset class! Ask Putin 🥲
Good luck traders, may the crypto be with you 🍀
FEEL FREE TO LEAVE A LIKE AND FOLLOW ⭐ H₿ CAPITAL ⭐
Bitcoin - Committed to the bearish narrative Over the past few days, Bitcoin has continued to be choppy, oscillating mainly between 19 000 USD and 20 000 USD. Currently, it trades near the 19 200 USD price tag. We believe the recent volatile movements reflect rising anxiety among market participants. Additionally, lower troughs and lower peaks, constituted since 15th August 2022, suggest the downtrend continuation.
Furthermore, fundamental factors weighing on risk appetite will continue to persist throughout 2022 and 2023, putting aside the bullish potential of the cryptocurrency market. In addition to fundamental factors, technical factors also support the bearish case for BTCUSD.
Therefore, we have no reason to change our bearish bias and stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. We expect our price targets to be reached within Q4 2022.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Again, we pay close attention to the sloping resistance; the breakout above it will be bullish, while the failure of the price to break above it will be bearish.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BTCUSDT - BIG MOVE Incoming 👀Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
We're about to witness the final call for Bitcoin - bullish or bearish in the next few weeks? Watch the WEEKLY Candlestick close to see which is more likely! If the price CLOSES underneath the support zone , bearish price action is the most likely. Judging by a few technical indicators such as RSI and LSMA , this seems like the more likely scenario. Unless something changes within the next 1D before the candle closes (this does sometimes happen). So the most reliable thing to watch at this point is the weekly candle close which closes tomorrow.
From a technical indicator perspective, we also see high volume at this range . This means the price could be gearing up for a BIG Move in either direction and the weekly close will give a hint towards which direction this may be.
Have a great weekend 🥂
_______________________
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Bitcoin is getting ready to short HEAD AND SHOULDER Hello guys. I just wanted to share yet another idea with you guys. As we can see here, this is a simple head and shoulder pattern.
What am I expecting here to happen? Well it is simple. I expect a slight fall to 18650 area, but we will see what will happen'
NOTE: I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR! You have to do your own research.
Bitcoin - BTCUSD to mark new lows by the end of Q4 2022Just hours after our last post, in which we warned about the unsustainability of the up move, Bitcoin erased all of its early gains and retraced below 19 000 USD. This development aligns with what we highlighted as a bear market behavior, characteristic of wild swings from one side to another and market participants trying to fish for a bottom.
That and a looming decrease in corporate earnings and a slowdown in the global economy will further reinforce our narrative about the progression into the second stage of the bear market. As a result, we think the risk aversion will rise, causing more weakness in the stock and cryptocurrency markets over time.
Indeed, we think what market participants have seen up until now, regarding erratic moves and elevated volatility, is just a pretext for what will unravel over the coming months. We believe we will see a dramatic increase in volatility, which will cause even more people to jump back and forth between bullish and bearish narratives.
However, as we did for the past year, we plan to stay unshaken by the high volatility and focus on the market's primary trend. Therefore, we remain bearish and committed to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Technical and fundamental factors support our view.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows simple support and resistance levels. To confirm our bearish thesis, we want to see the price break below the Support 1.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the weekly chart of BTCUSD and two SMAs in a bearish constellation.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BTC Market Analysis 27/09/2022BTC again bounced from the trend-line of the symmetrical triangle and consolidation in the symmetrical triangle continues.
Bulls have tried to break the resistance trend-line many times but ended up in fake-outs or rejections.
Now we have to wait for a breakout with a retest, which will confirm a bullish move in the market, and a breakdown of the demand zone with a retest below it would be a sign of a bearish move in the market.
Long term maximum lows.As title spoils, this time posting you daily chart extreme which could possible happen. I mentioned this in previous BTC post.
However, I personally can't stick to this. Targets often not reached in full measure.
This would play out too quick, or exchanges shut down. It is for Black Swan more like.
I never rely only on TA. Always looking also to fundaments, sentiment and Stock market. Big money play its role.
Anyway, also technical and rational. I personally be fine with calm nibbling around 618 Fibo. Let's say 12-14 thousand.
Full target got me 6800 USD as 5th complete-extended wave.. I prefer buy Bitcoins first and after more downside, I am starting with altcoins because of higher risk ratio.
In brief, I am looking on bearish Wickoff, wide broken Bear flag under MA200, low demand volumes and 5 wave correction.
So take care, monitor and let's go to see if new low occur. This is main condition for this analysis.
Emvo.
*This is not any financial advice.
Ethereum - Downtrend continuesOnce again, the price action proved our prediction correct, and Ethereum fell below 1300 USD over the weekend. This bearish development confirms our narrative about the downtrend continuation. Simultaneously, fundamental and technical factors also support this thesis. Therefore, we have no reason to change our thoughts on ETHUSD and stick to our price targets of 1000 USD and 900 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of ETHUSD. The breakout below the immediate support/resistance adds to the bearish sentiment. White horizontal lines indicate particular support and resistance levels.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BTC broke this trianglePlease 1st of all smash the boost🚀 button to support my work if you like it! It's absolutely for free.
₿itcoin broke out of this triangle down but didn't hit the target yet. I'm not chasing, just waiting for pullback to the previous range (pink) & triangle lower edge area around 20150 as shown by the blue projection. Setting SELL LIMIT order. Will cancel it if price reaches the target first before filling the order.
ENTRY : previous local range & triangle lower edge @ 20150
STOPLOSS : local high @ 20350
TARGET : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (pink) @ 19560
REWARD RISK RATIO (RRR) : ~3
INVALIDATION : when STOPLOSS level hit
Check my other stuff in related ideas.
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btceur bull market till May 2022 at 15000 on 10 week cyclesIf bitcoin will not break 65000 €uro ca $75000 in December then we are in bull market and following 5 cycles in 10 week periods till May 2022 will be selling cycles,
Price will slowly fall up to 15000.
Green arrows are the cycles when buying is profitable (except the unpredictable fluctuation in March 2021 the COVID panic month).
Red are the 10 week periods when selling shorting is profitable
Whole is n big parallel channel