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Btcusdanalysis

Accumulate, BTC back above 110K💎 BTC PLAN UPDATE (June 16) NOTABLE BITCOIN (BTC) NEWS: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) are showing signs of stabilization around key support levels following last week’s correction. BTC is attempting to regain momentum after closing below a critical support zone, while ETH and XRP are hovering near technical thresholds that could determine their next directional move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK: Bitcoin could decline further if it closes below the 50-day EMA Bitcoin closed below its daily support at $106,406 on Thursday, then bounced back after retesting the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $102,893 on Friday. BTC has since stabilized around the $105,000 level over the weekend. As of Monday, it continues to consolidate, trading near $105,788. If BTC fails to close above the $106,406 resistance level and heads lower, it may extend its decline toward the psychologically significant $100,000 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering around the neutral 50 mark, signaling indecision among traders. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bearish crossover on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure and a possible downtrend continuation. At this stage, whether you're new or experienced, it's wise to spend more time practicing, deepening your technical analysis knowledge, and exploring educational content shared on the channel. Strengthening your foundation will help you protect your capital in this volatile environment. ==> This analysis is for trend reference only. Wishing all investors successful trades!
Long
by Nova-Scalper
1
BTC-----Sell around 105500, target 104000 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on June 17: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single positive line with continuous negative lines. The price was consolidating at a high level, but the attached indicator was dead cross, and the closing line yesterday was a long upper lead, and the high point was near the 109,000 area. Why is it difficult to continue the rise? The price did not break the previous high point, the continuity was poor, the technical indicators were not obvious, etc., which are all reference data; the short-cycle hourly chart showed that the European session rose yesterday, and the US session continued to break the weekend correction high position. The price fell under pressure, the intraday high was 109,000 area, and the intraday retracement low was 106,000 area. There is no obvious direction at present, so the European and American sessions are the focus, so pay attention to the strength and weakness of the European and American sessions and the breakout situation, and then we will layout according to the real-time trend. The European and American sessions are currently showing a downward trend. Today's BTC short-term trading contract strategy: The current price is 105,500 and directly short, stop loss in the 106,000 area; the target is the 104,000 area;
Short
by NuggetsWarriors
BTC SHORT TP:105,000 16-06-2025Back from a quick break and we’re jumping straight into action 😎 Short and sweet setup — we’re looking for a fast move down. Entry: 106,500 – 107,000 Target: 104,800 – 105,100 RR: 3.0 average Timeframe: 2H Duration: 20–24 hours Context: Quick and clean short after a small vacation break — let’s stack more green. 📌 Use a tight stop or adjust based on your strategy. If the move doesn’t play out within the time range, the setup is invalid. We don’t use indicators, we’re not out here drawing lines or cute little shapes — I just give you a clean trade.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by ReyDragon21
Bitcoin Strategic Compression, ETF Inflows and Powell’s Shadow.⊢ ⟁ BTC/USD - Binance - (CHART: 12H) - (June 17, 2025). ⟐ Analysis Price: $105,324.51. ⊢ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (12H): ▦ EMA13 – ($106,094.47): ∴ The arcane speed line was briefly reclaimed but lost again in the latest candle close; ∴ Price has consistently failed to close above EMA13 since June 13th, indicating weakening momentum; ∴ It now acts as primary dynamic resistance in the 12H structure. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA13 has been rejected. Bearish pressure remains in control. ⊢ ▦ EMA44 – ($105,907.07): ∴ Price is currently below EMA44, though recent candles show no strong bearish conviction; ∴ This level functions as a neutral battleground - a true trend emerges only with decisive close above or below; ∴ The slope remains positive, preventing immediate breakdown. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA44 is the structural balance line. Below it, weakness persists. ⊢ ▦ VWAP (Session) – ($106,117.67): ∴ VWAP sits above current price, reflecting rejection of institutional value; ∴ All recent attempts to reclaim VWAP failed, signaling lack of dominant buy-side volume; ∴ Confluence with EMA13 and Donchian upper band creates a unified technical ceiling. ✴️ Conclusion: Institutional control remains absent. Value zone denied. ⊢ ▦ Donchian Channel (20) – ($106,690.95 / $102,854.49): ∴ Bands remain narrow, and price consolidates between mid-channel and the lower range; ∴ Upper band has been precisely respected for multiple sessions; ∴ This signals imminent volatility release from compression. ✴️ Conclusion: Volatility is fully compressed. Expansion is near. ⊢ ▦ Volume - (MA20: 154): ∴ Volume remains below the 20-period moving average; ∴ No strong buying or selling pressure confirms indecision; ∴ Market stands in strategic silence. ✴️ Conclusion: Low activity zone. Observation mode prevails. ⊢ ▦ Stoch RSI (3,3,14,14) – (21.38 / 27.27): ∴ Oscillator is crossing upward from oversold, but with weak momentum; ∴ Attempt to recover above 40 still incomplete; ∴ Risk of fakeout unless next candle confirms with bullish volume. ✴️ Conclusion: Reversal signal is weak. Watch for trap conditions. ⊢ ▦ MFI (14) – (31.86): ∴ Money flow index stays in low liquidity zone - no signs of accumulation from large players; ∴ No clear bullish divergence, yet no panic selloff either; ∴ The flat trajectory since June 10 confirms institutional disengagement. ✴️ Conclusion: Capital remains cautious. No inflow to trigger reversal. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight — Technical Oracle: ∴ Indicators show compression, rejection at $106K and lack of institutional momentum; ∴ Price structure is neutral-bearish with volume confirming indecision; ∴ A breakout would only be valid with strong candle body and +180 BTC/12H volume. ✴️ Conclusion: Tactical patience advised. Await true breakout with confirmation. ⊢ ∫ III. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ Exchange Inflow Total – (All Exchanges): ∴ Total BTC inflows remain below 10K/day, well beneath panic thresholds; ∴ No spikes above 50K BTC since early April - aligns with neutral market conditions; ∴ This reflects dormant whale behavior and no visible distribution phase. ✴️ Conclusion: The market is in structural silence. No signs of capitulation. ⊢ ▦ Exchange Inflow Mean = (MA7) – (All Exchanges): ∴ The 7-day moving average of inflow size dropped to ~0.4 BTC - a historic low; ∴ Indicates retail-dominant transactions, not whales; ∴ Precedents show this pattern often occurs before breakout events. ✴️ Conclusion: Institutional wallets remain inactive. Momentum awaits external ignition. ⊢ ▦ Spot Taker CVD - (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-day): ∴ Buyers still hold slight dominance, but the curve is flattening; ∴ This signals demand exhaustion and growing equilibrium; ∴ Historically precedes redistribution or longer sideways action. ✴️ Conclusion: Spot market is neutralizing. Demand fades. No clear strength. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle: ∴ All on-chain indicators confirm weak momentum, low inflows, and diminishing spot demand; ∴ There’s no signal of heavy sell pressure - but also no engine for rally; ∴ This is the seal of silence: light flows, thin volume, no imbalance. ✴️ Conclusion: Market waits for external driver. Watch for catalyst. ⊢ ⧉ IV. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicus: ▦ Middle East Tensions – Israel / Iran: ∴ Dow and S&P futures drop as evacuation alerts from Tehran raise global concern - (InfoMoney); ∴ Crude oil rises up to +2% - markets brace for supply disruption via Hormuz - (CryptoSlate); ∴ Global capital flows to Treasuries and gold, reducing liquidity in risk-on assets like BTC. ✴️ Conclusion: Geopolitical risk increases macro fear. Bitcoin faces risk-off inertia. ⊢ ▦ ETF Activity vs Macro Outlook: ∴ Despite $1.7B ETF inflows last week, price failed to hold key resistances - (CryptoSlate); ∴ This divergence reflects growing fear and fragile confidence in crypto exposure amid global tension; ∴ Institutional demand is present, but impact is diluted by macro noise. ✴️ Conclusion: ETF flows bring no clear edge under macro instability. ⊢ ▦ Fed Chair Powell (Upcoming): ∴ Jerome Powell will speak on June 19 - expected to comment on rate pause and forward guidance - (Cointelegraph); ∴ Retail data weakens U.S. outlook, but Fed’s stance remains cautious - (FXStreet); ∴ The speech will likely reset volatility across all assets. ✴️ Conclusion: Powell’s message is the next global pivot point. Market waits. ⊢ ⚜️ 𝟙⟠ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis! ⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy. ⊢ ⊢ ⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note: The current bias is neutral with a bearish weight; No validated entry present at this time; Volume must confirm any breakout attempt; The Seal of Silence remains active - we watch, not react. ⊢
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Magister_Arcanvm
₿itcoin: Continuing B WaveBitcoin has recently reclaimed the key $106,000 level. Under our primary scenario, we anticipate continued increases into the blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891 – where green wave B is expected to conclude. From that corrective peak, we project a significant move lower in wave C, which should ultimately pull prices into the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. This range is expected to mark the completion of orange wave a. We then foresee a brief corrective rally before wave (ii) completes its broader correction with a final sell-off. 📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by MarketIntel
DeGRAM | BTCUSD formed the rising bottom📊 Technical Analysis ● BTC rebounded exactly at the purple long-term trend-line and green 102.5-104 k demand, reclaiming the 105-106 k support band; the old wedge cap is now acting as a floor. ● Price is coiling in a 16-h bull flag beneath 108 k; its 1.618 projection intersects the channel roof/ red supply at 111.6-115 k, while rising lows keep momentum pointed up. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● U.S. spot-BTC ETFs attracted about $240 m of net subscriptions on 14 Jun, ending the outflow streak and signalling renewed institutional demand as exchange reserves slide to multi-year lows. ● Benchmark 10-yr Treasury yields are back under 4.45 %, easing dollar pressure and helping risk assets rebuild after the FOMC spike. ✨ Summary Buy 105-106 k; flag breakout above 108 k targets 111.6 k → 115 k. Invalidate on a close below 101.8 k. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
Bitcoin (BTC)and NASDAQ: Intermarket Analysis and the Road AheadIn this four-hour BTCUSD chart, Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern ⏳. The price is oscillating between a series of lower highs and higher lows, with the most recent swing high and swing low serving as key reference points for traders. This pattern reflects a market in indecision, awaiting a catalyst for a breakout. Volume has picked up as price approaches the previous low, suggesting that buyers are stepping in to defend this area, rather than capitulating. The next significant move will likely be determined by whether price can break above the last swing high or fall below the last swing low. A breakout above the previous high could open the door for a renewed uptrend, while a breakdown below the previous low may signal a deeper correction. Geopolitical & Fundamental Backdrop 🌍 Bitcoin’s current consolidation is happening against a backdrop of heightened macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Recent global events, such as tensions in the Middle East and shifting US economic data, have contributed to increased volatility across risk assets. Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, and the asset continues to be viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. However, short-term sentiment is sensitive to headlines and policy shifts. NASDAQ & Correlation with Bitcoin 📈 The NASDAQ and Bitcoin remain closely correlated, especially during periods of heightened risk-on or risk-off sentiment. The NASDAQ has recently been consolidating after a strong rally, with price action also defined by a series of lower highs and higher lows. The index’s outlook is currently neutral to cautiously bullish, mirroring Bitcoin’s technical structure. If the NASDAQ can break above its recent high, it could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Conversely, a move below the last swing low in equities could trigger further caution in crypto markets. Summary & Outlook 🚦 BTCUSD is at a pivotal juncture, with the next move likely to be determined by a break above the previous high or below the previous low on the four-hour chart. Macro and geopolitical factors are creating short-term volatility, but the long-term structure remains constructive as long as the broader uptrend of higher lows is maintained. The NASDAQ’s consolidation and its correlation with Bitcoin suggest that risk sentiment in equities will continue to influence crypto. Watch for confirmation from both markets before taking a directional bias. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency and stock markets are highly volatile and subject to rapid change. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSD
by fxtraderanthony
BTC “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitics Could Delay ItBitcoin’s “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitical Shocks Could Delay the Breakout Deep dive into price action, derivatives, on-chain data, and the tug-of-war between Middle-East risk and crypto bull-run momentum ________________________________________ Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed 13. Disclaimers ________________________________________ 1. Executive Summary • Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a tight $103 K–$108 K band, unable to confirm a breakout as Middle-East tensions push investors into hedging mode. • A Golden Cross—the 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day—could flash within 10 trading sessions, historically adding +37 % median upside over the subsequent 90 days. • Options flow has flipped decisively toward puts, with the 25-delta skew hitting –10 %, its most bearish since the FTX collapse, signaling short-term anxiety even as long-term bets remain bullish. • On-chain metrics (exchange balances at six-year lows, HODLer supply at all-time highs) reveal structural demand; Glassnode notes a 656 % cycle advance despite a trillion-dollar market cap. • Analysts’ upside targets range from $140 K (Q3) to $270 K (October) and even $229 K based on the Golden Cross fractal. Yet a clean break of $104 K support opens room to $97 K first. ________________________________________ 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge Bitcoin entered 2025 with a blistering rally—spot ETFs hoovered nearly 200 K coins in four months, miners sold aggressively into strength, and macro tailwinds (Fed easing, USD weakness) fueled risk appetite. Then two macro curveballs hit: 1. Sticky U.S. core inflation revived “higher-for-longer” rate fears. 2. Israel–Iran hostilities spooked global markets, sending Brent crude to $76 and sparking a dash for USD liquidity. BTC, once heralded as “digital gold,” behaved like a high-beta tech stock: it slipped 7 % in 48 hours, tagging $103,200 before bargain hunters stepped in. As of this writing, price sits near $105,800—right on the 100-hour SMA. Whether we escape the range depends on which force proves stronger: geopolitical dread or the long-term structural bid. ________________________________________ 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means A Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA-50) crosses above the 200-day (SMA-200). In Bitcoin’s 14-year history, we have logged nine such events: Year Days to Cross 90-Day Return 180-Day Return 2013 51 +88 % +202 % 2015 73 +34 % +67 % 2019 46 +193 % +262 % 2020 38 +77 % +112 % 2023 59 +29 % +48 % Median 90-day gain: +37 % Median drawdown post-cross: –12 % We are ~$700 shy of triggering the cross (SMA-50 at $97.9 K, SMA-200 at $98.1 K and rising). Assuming volatility stays muted, the lines converge within two weeks, potentially firing a widely watched buy signal. But remember: the cross is lagging; smart traders anticipate, not react. ________________________________________ 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle Key intraday levels (Kraken feed): • Support 1: $104,000 – prior weekly low + bullish order-block • Support 2: $101,200 – 0.786 Fib retrace of the Feb–Mar impulse • Bear Pivot: $97,000 – 200-day EMA + high-confluence volume node • Resistance 1: $106,800 – last week’s swing high; three failed probes • Resistance 2: $108,500 – May monthly open • Bull Pivot: $113,000 – neckline of the March distribution range Monday’s bounce broke a declining trend-line from $110 K, printing a higher low—constructive, yet bulls require a daily close >$106.8 K to invalidate the short-term bearish structure. ________________________________________ 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts Deribit data (largest BTC options venue): • Put/Call Ratio: 0.62 last Friday → 0.91 today • 25-Delta Skew (1-month): –10 %, lowest since Nov-2022 • Max-Pain for April 26 expiry: $104 K (huge open interest) Translation: traders rushed to buy protective puts as Iran war headlines crossed. Market-makers, short those puts, delta-hedged by shorting spot or perpetual futures, adding downward pressure—classic gamma feedback loop. Yet term structure remains contango; June and September IVs price higher topside. Institutions appear to sell near-dated panic, accumulate long-dated calls—a bullish medium-term stance. ________________________________________ 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 1. Risk-Off Correlation: Despite “digital gold” narratives, BTC’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 sits at 0.64; equities slide → crypto follows. 2. USD Liquidity Drain: War premium lifts oil, stoking inflation and forcing the Fed to delay cuts; higher real yields pressure non-yielding assets. 3. Regulatory Optics: Heightened national-security chatter emboldens lawmakers keen to scrutinize crypto, a perceived sanctions-evasion channel. 4. Regional Flows: The Middle-East hosts some of the largest sovereign-wealth pools; risk aversion could pause their crypto allocations. 5. Hence, every missile headline becomes a volatility catalyst. Still, flash-risk events fade quickly if energy supply stays intact, offering windows for BTC to re-assert its secular trend. ________________________________________ 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 Glassnode frames Bitcoin’s ongoing bull as “one of the most explosive relative to market cap gravity.” Highlights: • Cycle Return: 656 % from the $14 K November-2022 bottom—impressive given the asset is now >$2 T in free-float value, dwarfing 2017’s sub-$100 B base. • Exchange Balances: Just 2.02 M BTC on centralized venues—13-year low. • Realized Price (short-term holders): $92,500—suggests marginal buyers remain well in profit. • Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow: At 275 K BTC/day vs. 2021’s 550 K—implying HODLers are less willing to spend. Put simply: even after a seven-fold rally, supply scarcity persists. ________________________________________ 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve The April 20 adjustment saw difficulty dip 1.2 %, the first contraction since January. Why it matters: • Post-Halving Breathing Room: Block subsidy fell to 1.5625 BTC; a difficulty rollback cushions miner profit margins, lowering forced selling risk. • Hashrate Plateau: Network hashrate hovers at 640 EH/s, only 3 % off the ATH—miners remain confident. • Transaction Fees: Average fee per block = 0.37 BTC, still elevated by historical standards thanks to BRC-20 activity. Miners thus appear cash-flow stable, reducing downside pressure on spot markets compared to previous post-halving eras. ________________________________________ 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid Since MicroStrategy cracked the dam, 68 public companies now hold BTC on balance sheets, totaling 412,000 coins (~$43 B). Recent newcomers: Company Purchase Date BTC Added Avg Cost SemiconX Feb-2025 2,500 $94,800 Nordic Logistics Mar-2025 800 $98,200 Atlantech Energy Apr-2025 1,200 $101,500 Traits of corporate treasuries: • Long-Dated Liabilities: Align with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cadence. • Low Turnover: None of the 68 have sold core holdings despite 80 % drawdowns in 2022. • Regulatory Transparency: SEC filings broadcast purchases, inviting copycat demand. This sticky bid stabilizes spot markets during macro squalls. ________________________________________ 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside Bearish Path (30 % probability) • Trigger: Israel–Iran broadens, Fed signals no cuts in 2025. • Price Action: Break $104 K, bulls capitulate at $97 K (200-day). • Depth: Could wick to $88–90 K (0.618 retrace) if macro gloom persists. Base Case (50 % probability) • Trigger: Skirmishes contained; oil cools, Fed cuts twice by December. • Price Action: Golden Cross confirms, BTC grinds to $128 K by September. • Highs: $140 K tap as ETF inflows resume. Bullish Path (20 % probability) • Trigger: Middle-East cease-fire + ETF FOMO round two + dovish Fed pivot. • Fractals: Prior Golden-Cross extensions averaged +120 % at extreme. • Price Action: $150 K by summer, $229 K (Fib 2.618 from 2022 low) by year-end. • Blow-Off: $270 K October spike before the next cyclical bear begins. ________________________________________ 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors Horizon Bias Instruments Risk Management Intraday (0–48 h) Range scalp $104–$107 K Perp futures (5× max), options gamma scalping Hard stop $103 K; position <1 % equity Swing (2–8 wks) Buy pullbacks ahead of Golden Cross Spot, dated futures roll, 1-month $110 K calls Stop $97 K daily close; size 5–10 % Position (3–6 mo) Accumulate for $140–150 K target Spot, June/Sept call spreads ($120/150) Hedge via 25 % put collar Long-Term (1–4 yr) Maintain core stash; ignore noise Cold storage, DCA Re-balance only when price doubles Optional hedge: Long Gold / Short BTC ratio spread as a geopolitical shock absorber; ratio 1.3 currently, mean-reverts to 1.1 post-crises. ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed Bitcoin stands at a crossroads: a textbook Golden Cross beckons, ETF inflows smolder, miners relax, and corporate treasuries drip-feed demand. Yet war headlines and a cautious options market act as sandbags on the balloon. History says macro shocks slow, not stop secular bull cycles. Unless Middle-East conflict strangles global liquidity or the Fed slams the brakes far harder than priced, BTC’s higher-time-frame structure remains bullish. Expect turbulence, embrace risk controls—but don’t mistake a weather delay for a busted engine. ________________________________________ 13. Disclaimers This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves substantial risk; never invest more than you can afford to lose.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
PENGUUSDT Forming Falling WedgePENGUUSDT is currently showing a textbook falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, which is a bullish technical setup often signaling a trend reversal. The price has been compressing within downward-sloping resistance and support lines, and with the wedge tightening, a breakout is becoming more likely. This setup is particularly appealing when paired with the recent increase in trading volume, suggesting accumulation and growing market interest. If a breakout confirms, the projected upside could be in the range of 90% to 100%+ based on historical wedge breakouts and current technical targets. From a volume and sentiment perspective, the coin has seen consistent liquidity, and investor chatter is increasing across forums and social platforms. The consolidation after a previous strong uptrend adds further strength to the setup — a classic "bullish continuation" after a healthy correction phase. Traders often look for such patterns to catch early momentum before a full-scale rally unfolds. In the case of PENGUUSDT, once resistance breaks convincingly, a strong wave upward could follow swiftly. The breakout zone to watch sits slightly above the upper descending trendline, and with price already nudging against it, traders should keep an eye on confirmation candles with strong volume. Given the relatively clean overhead structure, any successful breakout could lead to a quick retest of previous highs, providing significant upside. The 100% profit projection marked on the chart highlights the measured move target, aligning with prior resistance zones. Technically sound and backed by rising interest, PENGUUSDT presents a high-potential opportunity for short-term and swing traders. If momentum continues, this could become one of the top-performing micro-cap plays in the coming weeks. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
BITCOIN: As simple as that!Hello Traders, First of all, a big thank you to all the members of our community for being part of this journey. With Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high, we are about to witness even more bullish momentum unfold. 🚀 A special shoutout to @TradingView for providing an incredible platform that empowers traders like us to showcase our technical skills, build our identity, and grow from nothing to something. Now, let’s head to the update: Since September 2023, BTC has performed exceptionally well. We witnessed a strong rally lasting until March 2024 (around 180 days), followed by a period of consolidation. BTC then made another leg up, hitting the historic $100K mark. After another consolidation phase, we are now seeing the start of a new bullish rally. 📈 Based on current analysis, this rally is expected to reach between $130K and $150K, with the target likely being achieved by early Q3. So, sit tight, stay focused, and enjoy the ride! 🥂 Best regards, Dexter
Long
by Dexter_The_Trader
Is the Bitcoin Cash Hype Over? BCH/BTC Ratio Flashes WarningThe Great Divergence: Why the Bitcoin Cash-Bitcoin Ratio Breakdown Signals More Than Just a Price Drop In the unforgiving arena of the cryptocurrency markets, every chart tells a story. Some whisper of quiet accumulation, others scream of speculative frenzy. But few charts tell a story as profound and historically charged as the Bitcoin Cash to Bitcoin (BCH/BTC) ratio. For years, this ratio has been the ultimate barometer of a digital civil war, a measure of the hopes and failures of a project born from a contentious schism. Recently, that barometer has given its clearest signal in months: a decisive and powerful breakdown from a multi-month triangle pattern. This technical event is far more than a simple squiggle on a screen for traders. It represents the potential end of a speculative, hype-driven rally and the forceful reassertion of a brutal, long-term trend. It signals that the fundamental chasm between Bitcoin, the undisputed king of digital assets, and Bitcoin Cash, its most famous and ambitious offshoot, may be widening once again. The breakdown suggests that the brief period of optimism for Bitcoin Cash, fueled by its own halving event and a broader market updraft, may be conclusively over. To understand the gravity of this moment, one must dissect not only the technical pattern itself but also the deep-seated historical and fundamental weaknesses that made this breakdown almost inevitable. The Anatomy of a Technical Collapse: Smashing the Triangle For much of 2024, the BCH/BTC ratio was trapped in a state of compression. On the chart, this appeared as a classic symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern is defined by a series of lower highs and higher lows, creating two converging trendlines that form the shape of a triangle. In market terms, it represents a period of intense equilibrium and indecision. Buyers and sellers are locked in a fierce battle, with neither side able to gain a definitive edge. The price coils tighter and tighter, like a compressed spring, building up energy for an explosive move. The only question is which direction it will break. In the case of the BCH/BTC ratio, that question has been answered with a resounding crash. The price has decisively broken below the lower trendline of the triangle. This is known as a "breakdown," and it is a powerfully bearish signal. It signifies that the sellers have overwhelmed the buyers, the equilibrium has been shattered, and the path of least resistance is now firmly downwards. Traders often measure the potential target of such a breakdown by taking the height of the triangle at its widest point and projecting that distance downwards from the point of the breakdown. Given the scale of this particular pattern, this technical measurement points to a significant further decline in the ratio, potentially revisiting and even surpassing its all-time lows. This isn't just a minor dip; it's a structural failure on the chart that suggests a new, sustained leg down in Bitcoin Cash's performance relative to Bitcoin. The "hype rally" that saw the ratio climb in the lead-up to the Bitcoin Cash halving has been effectively erased, and the market is signaling that the fundamental gravity of the long-term downtrend is taking hold once more. A Ghost in the Machine: The Lingering Shadow of the 2017 Fork This technical breakdown did not occur in a vacuum. It is a single chapter in a long and bitter saga that began in 2017. To grasp its significance, we must revisit the great "Block Size War" that tore the Bitcoin community apart. At its heart was a philosophical disagreement about how to scale Bitcoin to accommodate more users. One camp, which included many of the earliest adopters and evangelists, argued for a simple solution: increase the block size. By allowing more transactions to fit into each block, the network could process more volume and keep fees low, preserving what they saw as Bitcoin's original vision of a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system." The other camp, which ultimately retained control of the Bitcoin protocol, argued for a more cautious approach. They feared that large blocks would lead to centralization, making it too expensive for ordinary users to run a full node and validate the blockchain. Their solution was to keep the base layer small and secure, and to build scaling solutions on top of it, such as the Lightning Network. This ideological impasse led to a "hard fork" in August 2017, creating Bitcoin Cash. For a brief, euphoric period, BCH was seen as a legitimate contender. Fueled by a powerful narrative and influential backers, its price soared, and the BCH/BTC ratio hit an all-time high of over 0.5 in late 2017, sparking serious talk of a "flippening"—the moment BCH would overtake BTC in market capitalization. That moment never came. Since that peak, the BCH/BTC ratio has been locked in a devastating, multi-year downtrend. The recent triangle pattern was merely a pause, a brief consolidation within this much larger waterfall decline. The breakdown from the triangle is therefore not a new event, but a continuation of a historical trend. It is the market's brutal verdict on the outcome of that civil war. The Fundamental Chasm: Why Bitcoin Cash Keeps Losing Ground A chart pattern is ultimately a reflection of underlying fundamentals. The relentless decline of the BCH/BTC ratio is a direct consequence of the widening gap between the two networks across every meaningful metric. 1. Narrative and Brand Identity: Bitcoin has successfully cultivated a simple, powerful, and globally understood narrative: it is digital gold. It is a store of value, a hedge against inflation, and a pristine, unconfiscatable asset. This narrative has attracted institutions, nation-states, and trillions of dollars in potential capital. Bitcoin Cash, meanwhile, has struggled to define itself. Its narrative as "peer-to-peer electronic cash" is less compelling in a world with countless low-fee payment options, including stablecoins and Bitcoin's own Lightning Network. Without a clear and unique value proposition, it has failed to capture the market's imagination. 2. Security and Hash Rate: The most critical measure of a proof-of-work blockchain's health is its hash rate—the total computational power dedicated to securing the network. Here, the difference is staggering. Bitcoin's hash rate is orders of magnitude higher than Bitcoin Cash's. This makes Bitcoin exponentially more secure and resistant to a 51% attack, where a malicious actor could gain control of the network. Bitcoin Cash, with its comparatively minuscule hash rate, remains theoretically vulnerable, a fundamental flaw that deters serious institutional capital. 3. Developer Activity and Innovation: The heart of any technology is its developer community. The most innovative and exciting developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem are happening on the main chain. The activation of Taproot, the explosion of Ordinals and Inscriptions, and the continued growth of the Lightning Network all demonstrate a vibrant and evolving protocol. In contrast, the developer ecosystem for Bitcoin Cash has been far less dynamic. While it has its dedicated builders, it has not produced the kind of groundbreaking innovation needed to attract new users and capital. 3. Adoption and Network Effects: Bitcoin's network effect is its ultimate moat. It has spot ETFs trading on major stock exchanges, granting it unparalleled access to traditional finance. It is held on the balance sheets of public companies and is recognized as legal tender in some countries. Bitcoin Cash has none of these things. Merchant adoption has stalled, and institutional interest is virtually non-existent. In the world of networks, winners tend to take all, and Bitcoin's lead has become seemingly insurmountable. The Aftermath: What Comes Next for the BCH/BTC Ratio? With the triangle pattern now shattered, the path forward for the BCH/BTC ratio looks precarious. The most likely scenario is a continuation of the bearish trend that has been in place for over six years. The breakdown has released the coiled energy to the downside, and the ratio will likely seek out lower levels of support, potentially bleeding towards its all-time lows. For investors, this serves as a stark reminder of the risks of holding assets that are fundamentally and technically weaker than the market leader. Is there any hope for a reversal? A bull case for Bitcoin Cash would require a monumental shift. It would need to carve out a sustainable niche that Bitcoin cannot serve, perhaps in ultra-low-fee microtransactions. It would require a renaissance in developer activity, producing a "killer app" that draws in millions of users. More likely, any significant bounce in the BCH/BTC ratio would probably be a result of a massive, indiscriminate altcoin rally that lifts all boats, rather than a specific vote of confidence in Bitcoin Cash itself. Even then, history suggests such bounces are temporary and ultimately present better opportunities to sell than to buy for the long term. Conclusion: The Market Has Spoken The breakdown of the BCH/BTC ratio from its multi-month triangle is a technically significant event with profound fundamental implications. It is the market's latest verdict in the long-running war for the "real Bitcoin" title. The verdict is clear: the hype is over. The dream of a "flippening" is a distant memory, a ghost from 2017. The story of the BCH/BTC chart is a powerful lesson in market dynamics. It shows that in the brutal competition of open-source protocols, a superior narrative, impenetrable security, and a powerful network effect are the ultimate weapons. Bitcoin Cash began its life as a legitimate contender with a compelling vision. But over time, it has been outmaneuvered, out-developed, and out-adopted. The chart does not lie. It simply reflects this divergent reality, and its latest signal suggests that the great divergence between Bitcoin and its most famous offspring is set to continue.
Short
by bryandowningqln
₿itcoin: Directly or with a Detour?!Under our primary scenario, Bitcoin remains on track to climb into the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891 during green wave B. The key question at this stage: will the crypto giant head straight for the zone – or take a detour below the $100,000 level first? Either path remains structurally consistent with the broader outlook. Once wave B concludes, we expect a pullback to unfold in wave C, with the low of that move – and the bottom of orange wave a – anticipated in the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. From there, orange wave b should initiate a corrective rally, likely rebounding toward the $100,000 mark. This would set the stage for the final leg down in blue wave (ii). Meanwhile, our alternative scenario remains intact on the 8-hour chart. This 30% likely scenario suggests Bitcoin is still advancing within blue wave alt.(i) , rather than correcting in wave (ii). A confirmed breakout above $130,891 would validate this outcome. 📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by MarketIntel
BTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout SetupBTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout Setup 🔄🚀 Technical Analysis Overview: 🔹 Pattern Formation: The chart displays a potential Triple Bottom pattern (🟠), a classic reversal signal forming at the $104,870–$100,000 support zone 🛡️. This structure suggests a strong base is being established for a potential upside move. 🔹 Support Zone: 📉 The price has consistently bounced off the major support area around $100,000–$104,870, indicating strong buying interest. 🔹 Resistance Zone: 📊 The key resistance level lies around the $114,000–$115,000 range 🔵, which has been tested multiple times in the past (🔴 arrows) and could act as a future profit target. 🔹 Price Action & Projection: Currently, price is trading near $107,025 and is showing signs of bullish continuation after forming a higher low. If the price consolidates above the $104,870 zone and holds support, we could see a potential breakout targeting the $114,000 resistance 📈. 📌 Key Takeaways: ✅ Triple Bottom formation signals trend reversal. 🔄 Bullish structure confirmed above $104,870. 🎯 Next target: $114,000 if breakout holds. ⚠️ Watch for potential consolidation before continuation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MrStellanSight