CAD/CHF: Bearish Trend Resumes After Retest of Downtrend LineCAD/CHF continues to respect its prevailing downtrend, with price reacting from the descending trendline and showing signs of renewed bearish pressure. Fundamentals support further downside as CAD remains weighed by weak domestic data, while CHF holds steady as a safe-haven currency amid global tariff concerns.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Trend: Strong downtrend structure, with repeated rejections from the descending trendline.
Current Level: 0.5829, consolidating after failing to break above 0.5863 resistance.
Key Support Levels:
0.5786 (near-term support and first bearish target).
0.5736 (secondary support and next major target).
Resistance Levels:
0.5863 (immediate resistance at descending trendline).
0.5910 (upper resistance if a breakout occurs).
Projection: Likely pullback toward 0.5863 (retest zone) before continuation to 0.5786 and possibly 0.5736.
Fundamental Analysis
Bias: Bearish.
Key Fundamentals:
CAD: Weak Canadian manufacturing PMI and trade risks from US tariffs limit CAD upside.
CHF: Swiss Franc remains supported by safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainty.
Oil Prices: Stable oil offers partial CAD support but insufficient to change the broader trend.
Risks:
A sharp rise in oil prices could strengthen CAD.
Global risk-on sentiment could weaken CHF and lift CAD/CHF.
Key Events:
BoC policy updates.
SNB stance and global risk sentiment shifts.
Oil market data.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
CAD/CHF is a lagger, following CAD’s performance relative to oil and CHF’s safe-haven flows.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
CAD/CHF remains bearish, with price respecting the downtrend and targeting 0.5786 initially. A break below this level opens the door to 0.5736. The key watchpoints are oil price fluctuations, global risk sentiment, and potential safe-haven demand for CHF.
