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Candlestick Analysis

GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan Explained⚠️GOLD is currently at a crucial daily horizontal support level. It is consolidating within a horizontal range on the 4-hour chart, showing a positive bullish reaction and testing the range's resistance. A breakout above this resistance with a 4-hour candle close would signal strong bullish momentum, potentially leading to further gains, with the next target at 3437. Conversely, a bearish breakout below the support could initiate a downward movement.
TVC:GOLD
by linofx1
4
Short gold, it needs to retreat to the area around 3350!Gold is currently testing the support near 3380 again. According to the current trend of gold, gold is likely to break through 3380, and gold has stopped near 3400 many times during the rebound process, and the rebound strength of gold is lacking. If gold really wants to rebound, then after testing near 3380 many times and getting support at 3390, it should have rebounded to the 3410-3420 area, but it is obvious that gold has not yet touched the 3410-3420 area. Therefore, gold's performance is relatively weak and its correction trend should continue for now. In terms of fundamentals, Iran is not decisive in its retaliatory behavior, so if the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate, gold may find it difficult to continue to rise. So according to the current trend and performance of gold, we should not be stubborn in long gold trading for the time being, and adjust our trading plan reasonably according to the market and price behavior. If gold continues to retreat, the first thing we need to pay attention to below is the 3355-3345 area, followed by the area near 3330. So for the next short-term trading, we can try to short gold in the 3395-3405 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steffen_Schade
Continue to try to short gold，It's expected to touch 3355-3345 Gold has broken through 3380 twice, but recovered quickly, indicating that the bulls still have some defensive power. At present, gold has touched 3400 again; it can be seen that the bulls' potential defense is still good, but it is not enough to support the continued rebound of gold in the short term. Obviously, gold is still under pressure in the 3410-3420 area in the short term. If gold cannot break through this resistance area in the short term, gold may continue to maintain a volatile state and continue to seek strong support downward. Only after gold breaks through the 3410-3420 area, it is expected to continue to rise and touch the area near 3450 again. When gold tested the support near 3380 several times during the day and tried to break through this area, after gold failed to break through the 3410-3420 area in the short term, I think gold will be more likely to choose a downward direction, or even continue to test the 3355-3345 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, before breaking through the 3410-3420 area, we should not chase gold too much, and we can try to short gold in this area appropriately.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steffen_Schade
Gold is expected to hit 3410-3420 againBecause of the news that Iran hopes to ease the hostile relationship with Israel, gold fell sharply in the short term, then rebounded after touching 3383, and quickly recovered above 3390. From this point of view, the buying support below is strong, and the market sentiment is still high, which limits the downside of gold, and the support of 3390-3380 area is still valid. Although the bullish momentum of gold has weakened relatively due to the retracement in the short term, as long as gold remains above 3380, it still maintains a strong upward structure; and the retracement only exacerbates the short-term shock trend. Gold is still likely to maintain a shock upward structure and try to touch the 3410-3420 area again. Once gold breaks through 3420 strongly, it is expected to hit the area near 3450 again. So for short-term trading, I still hold a long position in gold, and there is still a certain profit now. I have to say that if gold can reach the 3410-3420 area as expected, our profits will increase significantly!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steffen_Schade
AUD/JPY Bulls Eye 95+ After Bullish ReversalAUD/JPY bounced sharply on Thursday, snapping a 3-day losing streak with a solid bullish-range session. The rally kicked off from a bullish pinbar above 92, where the higher low reinforces support and the broader bullish case. The 1-hour chart shows a clean breakout from an inverted head and shoulders pattern, pointing to a target around 95.50. With resistance at the April high (95.30), March high (95.75), and the 96 handle, there’s still room for bulls to run. Dips toward 94 may offer opportunities to join the trend — but a break back below the neckline would shift the tone back to risk-off. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Long
by CityIndex
AAVE: Long 15/06/25Trade Direction: AAVE Long Risk Management: - Risk halved because of weekend - Halved again as counter HTF trend (Bearish) - 0.25% risk Reason for Entry: - OTE Retracement - Failure to displace on this bearish leg - Key support - Oversold M15 - M5 Ts - M5 Bull Div - H1 and M30 FVG Additional Notes: - Target EQHs then HTF DOL at 291 - Probably one of the weaker alts and if btc rolls over this will get stopped. If it breaks out of EQHs expect that imbalance to get aggressively swept to 291. - SL At 0.886 retracement because my system dictates if the FVG gets fully mitigated we are going to sweep the H1 Protected - Losing FVG (Fully mitigating it) would invalidate this idea. - Highly risky as no MSB / CHoCH has formed for bulls. Last trade of the day for me. Until I get a potential short trigger above 106,500 btc no more trades till tomorrow. Have a good weekend.
Long
by Ryn8111
6
Gold is weak, and there may be a low point yet to come!According to the current structure, gold is obviously in a weak position. Gold has failed to break through the high point of the previous wave after multiple rebounds during the day. 3400 has become a new round of pressure area; and gold has just accelerated its decline and fell below 3370. For the current trend, falling below 3370 will weaken the bullish sentiment to a certain extent and indicate that there is further room for decline, so I think gold should have a low point, and the low point we should first pay attention to is in the range of 3365-3355. So in terms of short-term trading, First, we can try to short gold with the short-term resistance area of 3395-3405; But if gold first retreats to the support area of 3365-3355, we can first choose to go long on gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steffen_Schade
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 16 June 2025 - USDJPY reversed from the support zone - Likely to rise to the resistance level 146.00 USDJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone surrounding the pivotal support level 142.50, which has been reversing the price from the start of August. The upward reversal from the support level 142.50 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line. USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 146.00 (top of the previous correction 2 from last month).
Long
by FxProGlobal
Forward-looking trading, focus on 3380 support📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East 2. Iran nuclear talks 3. Retail sales data 📈 Market analysis: Gold prices are currently in a narrow range of fluctuations again, and the signal of Iran restarting nuclear negotiations has weakened risk aversion, triggering a correction in gold prices during the session, but tensions in the Middle East remain an uncertain factor. In the short term, we still need to focus on the breakthrough of the 3380 support line. If the 3380 support line is strong, we can still maintain a long trading idea in the short term and look to 3400. On the contrary, once it falls below, it is expected to look to the 3350 line. Pay attention to the breakthrough of 3400 on the upside. If the Asian and European sessions cannot effectively break through this short-term resistance, gold will continue to fluctuate. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3380-3370 TP 3390-3400-3450 SELL 3400-3390 TP 3380-3370-3350 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell-2
Falling below 3380,testing 3365,the low position remains bullish📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East 2. Iran nuclear talks 3. Retail sales data 📈 Market analysis: After rebounding to the 3400 line, gold encountered resistance and fell back to test the support level of 3380. Although it was very close to the point of 3405 we gave, I did not enter the trade because gold has been in the middle section in the short term and has not rebounded to the ideal point. There are too many long orders at high levels in gold. The international situation is so tense that gold is still slowly declining, but the geopolitical situation is still continuing. In addition, the retail sales data is bullish. Then, as the trading strategy given at noon, it is expected to test the short-term support of 3365-3355 below. I will consider going long in this range 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3365-3355 TP 3380-3390-3400 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
Resistance zones and Geo-political instability acting up.Geo-Political instability and resistance zone are acting up together to stop Nifty and not allowing it to close above 25K. As the world is looking at developments in Iran Vs Israel conflict with beated heart market today gave up some gains from yesterday. The only index looking strong is IT index right now. Avoid taking very long positions unless you are very sure of the company. Yesterday also Nifty failed to close above 25K opened briefly near 25K today and then moved downwards. Lot will be decided in the short term by the developments that happen tonight. Important G7 meet and US Federal reserve Rate Cut meet is also to happen later in the week. These 2 global factors will decide fate of the market in the short term. Local factors are all in line and nothing to worry for Indian markets on that front. The supports for Nifty remain at: 24713 (Trend line support), 24425 (Mother line support of Daily chart), next support is near 23917, 23806 (Father line support of daily chart is in place). Closing below 23906 can lead to further down side and in such a scenario Nifty can fall further towards 23500 or 23047 levels. If we get a closing below that we will give updates regarding the same. Resistances for Nifty remain at: 24982 (Today's high), 25112 and trend line resistance of 25251. When we get a closing above 25251 we will update you regarding the further upward resistnace levels. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
XAU/USD 17 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high. Price is now trading within an established internal range. The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price. As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Ethereum’s 19-Day ETF Inflow Streak: What Really HappenedEthereum’s 19-Day ETF Inflow Streak: What Really Happened to Price, Structure, and Sentiment Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 2. ETF Backdrop: How the 19-Day Inflow Wave Took Shape 3. Chronology of Price: Day-by-Day Performance 4. Weekly Chart Anatomy: The “Pre-Tower Top” Signal Explained 5. Intraday Technicals: From $2,450 Low to the $2,620 Hurdle 6. On-Chain & Derivatives Lens: Funding, OI, CEX Balances 7. Fundamental Undercurrents: Dencun Afterglow, L2 Fees, Staking Yields 8. Risks & Catalysts: ETH vs. Macro, vs. BTC Dominance, vs. SEC Noise 9. Playbooks for Traders and Long-Term Allocators 10. Conclusion: A Pause, Not a Peak—If Key Levels Hold ________________________________________ 1. Executive Summary • Ethereum received 19 consecutive days of net inflows into spot-linked exchange-traded products (ETPs) totaling $1.37 billion, the longest positive streak since the 2021 bull-run. • Over the same period ETH/USD rose 18.4 %, printing a local high at $2,750, but has since pulled back to $2,575 amid broad crypto risk-off and Middle-East tensions. • The latest weekly candle morphs into a “pre-tower top” pattern—two tall green candles followed by a small-bodied doji—often a harbinger of heavy distribution if confirmed by another red week. • Short-term structure improved Monday: price pierced a contracting-triangle ceiling at $2,550, reclaimed the 100-hour SMA, and now eyes $2,620 as the gatekeeper to renewed upside. • Funding rates flipped neutral, exchange reserves hit a 7-year low, and staking deposits outpace withdrawals 1.7 : 1—on-chain signs that the sell-off is more leverage shakeout than top formation. ________________________________________ 2. ETF Backdrop: How the 19-Day Inflow Wave Took Shape 2.1. The Players Unlike Bitcoin’s mammoth U.S. spot ETFs, Ethereum’s inflow streak drew from Europe and Canada, where physically backed ETPs have traded since 2021. The three biggest contributors: Product Country 19-Day Net Flow AUM Growth 21Shares Ethereum ETP (AETH) Switzerland +$502 m +38 % CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF (ETHX) Canada +$458 m +29 % WisdomTree Physical Ethereum EU +$227 m +24 % Rumors of an SEC approval window “after the U.S. election” sparked pre-positioning; asset managers figured it was cheaper to accumulate now than chase later once liquidity explodes on Wall Street. 2.2. Flow Mechanics When an ETP issues new shares, it must buy spot ETH or tap an AP that can supply coins—direct demand unmatched by equivalent selling pressure. Over the 19-day window, the net 396 k ETH of creation equaled 57 % of all new issuance from block rewards post-Dencun, creating a measurable supply squeeze. 2.3. Historical Context The only longer stretch was January–February 2021 (27 days), which culminated in ETH exploding from $1,400 to $2,000. The key difference today: market cap is six times larger, so identical inflows exert a milder percentage impact, explaining why price “only” added ~18 %. ________________________________________ 3. Chronology of Price: Day-by-Day Performance Day Date ETF Net Flow Price Close % Δ vs. Prior Day 1 Mar 18 +$58 m $2,110 — 5 Mar 22 +$73 m $2,265 +7.3 % 10 Mar 27 +$94 m $2,430 +2.4 % 15 Apr 1 +$125 m $2,690 +3.8 % 19 Apr 5 +$81 m $2,750 +0.9 % Across the stretch, realized volatility rose from 32 % to 46 %, but skew stayed positive, showing call demand outpaced puts until the very end, when geopolitical headlines flipped sentiment. ________________________________________ 4. Weekly Chart Anatomy: The “Pre-Tower Top” Signal Explained 4.1. What Is a Tower Top? In candlestick lore, a tower top comprises: 1. A tall green candle (strong breakout) 2. Another tall green candle (exhaustion) 3. A narrow doji or spinning top (equilibrium) 4. A large red candle (breakdown confirmation) We currently have the first three pieces: the last two weeks of March delivered back-to-back 10 % advances; the first week of April closed as a +0.6 % doji. The pattern is not confirmed until a decisive red week engulfs the doji body (< $2,540). 4.2. Indicators • RSI (weekly): 59 → ticking down from 68 high; still shy of overbought. • MACD histogram: Positive but flattening. • Bollinger bands: Price mid-point of upper band, room for one more expansion. Conclusion: the candle warns of fatigue, but momentum hasn’t rolled over—yet. ________________________________________ 5. Intraday Technicals: From $2,450 Low to the $2,620 Hurdle 5.1. Hourly Chart (Kraken Feed) • Triangle Breakout: Price sliced through descending trend-line at $2,550, tagging $2,590. • Moving Averages: ETH trades marginally above the 100-hour SMA ($2,575) but below the 200-hour ($2,610). • Fibonacci Zones: $2,620 aligns with 0.5 retrace of the $2,750→$2,450 fall—classic reversal pivot. A clean hourly close >$2,620 opens the door to $2,680 (0.618 Fib) and psychological $2,700. Failure rejects to $2,520 support cluster. 5.2. Order-Book Heat Map Coinbase Pro data shows 1,300 ETH ask wall at $2,620 and a thinner 890 ETH bid at $2,520. Liquidity skew favors dip-buying, but bulls need market orders >1 k ETH to smash the ask block. ________________________________________ 6. On-Chain & Derivatives Lens 6.1. Exchange Reserves Centralized exchanges now hold 12.9 million ETH, lowest since July 2017. The 19-day ETF harvest accelerated an already extant down-trend of roughly 60 k ETH/week outflows, mostly into staking contracts and L2 bridges. 6.2. Staking Flows • Beacon deposit contract: +188 k in April’s first week. • Withdrawal queue: 11 k ETH—tiny relative to deposits. • Effective deposit APR after Dencun: 3.2 %, still beating U.S. 2-year T-notes post-tax for many investors. 6.3. Perpetual Funding & OI • Funding normalized to 0.007 %/8 h (≈ 3.2 % APR), down from 9 % at March highs—spec longs flushed. • Open Interest shed $420 m in the two-day dip—liquidations, not fresh shorts, drove the wash-out. 6.4. Options Skew • 25-delta risk reversal (1-month): flipped to –4 % (puts pricier than calls) for first time since January—hedging demand but nowhere near panic-level (–12 % in 2022 bear). ________________________________________ 7. Fundamental Undercurrents 7.1. Dencun Afterglow & L2 Fees Proto-danksharding (EIP-4844) slashed L2 data costs by 85 %, pushing average Arbitrum and Optimism transaction fees under $0.02. Cheaper blockspace fuels on-chain activity: Metric Pre-Dencun Post-Dencun Δ Daily L2 Txns 2.4 m 4.1 m +71 % Bridged ETH to L2s 6.8 m 7.9 m +16 % More usage → more gas burned → structural tailwind to ETH as a fee-burn asset. 7.2. DeFi TVL Total value locked rebounded to $61 billion, led by EigenLayer and restaking hype. ETH comprises 68 % of TVL collateral—every lending loop pins additional demand. 7.3. Competing Narratives • Solana season siphoned retail mind-share; SOL/ETH ratio popped 42 % YTD. • Bitcoin L2s (Stacks, Rootstock) attempt to mirror Ethereum’s smart-contract moat, but dev tooling remains nascent. • Net: Ethereum retains developer supremacy (70 % of new GitHub commits among smart-contract chains) and therefore garners institutional comfort. ________________________________________ 8. Risks & Catalysts Factor Bearish Angle Bullish Rebuttal Macro Sticky U.S. CPI halts Fed cuts → higher real yields weigh on non-yielders ETH staking yield + MEV is real cash-flow; Dencun lowers L2 costs → adoption offset SEC Spot ETF Delay past Jan 2026 or outright denial kills U.S. inflow dream 19-day streak proves ex-U.S. capital is hungry; approval >0 is all it takes for supply shock BTC Dominance Halving FOMO may keep Bitcoin’s share >55 %, starve ETH rotation Historical pattern: ETH rips 6-10 weeks post-halving as beta plays catch-up Tower-Top Pattern Weekly confirmation could spark drop to $2,200 support Pattern fails if bulls recapture $2,750 quickly, turning doji into bullish flag ________________________________________ 9. Playbooks for Traders and Long-Term Allocators 9.1. Short-Term Momentum (0–7 days) • Bias: Range-trade $2,520–$2,620 until breakout. • Instruments: ETH-perp on Bybit/Deribit, 3× leveraged tokens for reduced funding bleed. • Trigger: 15-minute candle above $2,620 with ≥ $50 m aggregated CVD buys. • Stop: $2,560 (triangle retest). • Target: $2,680 then $2,700. 9.2. Swing (1–8 weeks) • Bias: Accumulate dips as long as weekly stays >$2,350 (0.382 Fib of Oct→Mar leg). • Tools: 1-month $2,500-$2,800 call spreads; spot with 25 % collar protection. • Catalysts: SEC commentary May 23, FOMC June 18. 9.3. Position (6–18 months) • Bias: Dollar-cost average into staking nodes; carry 4 % ETH on portfolio NAV. • Thesis: EIP-4844 usage boom + probable U.S. ETF = $4–5 k fair value by 2026. • Risk Control: Hedge 25 % notional via BTC-perp short if BTC.D >58 %. ________________________________________ 10. Conclusion: A Pause, Not a Peak—If Key Levels Hold The 19-day ETF inflow streak proves that institutional demand for Ethereum exists even without a U.S. spot vehicle. Price responded vigorously but not parabolically, reflecting the asset’s growing market-cap gravity. The nascent “pre-tower-top” weekly candle warns of exhaustion; confirmation, however, requires another bearish week that cracks $2,540 support. Short-term order-flow shows willing dip buyers, staking metrics scream supply sink, and the macro backdrop—while shaky—fails to dent ETH’s relative value proposition versus fiat yields. Translation: Ethereum is vulnerable to headline-driven squalls but structurally sound. If bulls recapture $2,620, the path to retest $2,750 and ultimately $3,000 reopens. Lose $2,450 and the tower top will complete, sending ETH toward $2,200 where ETF inflow buyers likely reload. For now, the balance of evidence favors consolidation with an upward skew—tower construction, perhaps, but no wrecking ball yet.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
3400 3380 are the two points that determine the trend of gold📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Expected Fed policy 📈 Market analysis: This week, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, retail sales data, initial jobless claims and geopolitical situation will be the core factors affecting global markets. In the short term, gold rebounded after hitting the 3383 line. This round of decline was relatively rapid. At the same time, there is a certain resistance at the 3405-3410 line above in the short term, which is also the main reason for our long orders to leave the market. In the short term, it is recommended to first look at the support situation at the 3380 line below, and then enter the long order after obtaining effective support above this position. On the contrary, if it falls below this short-term support, the gold price is expected to fall to the 3350 mark! For the evening layout, it is recommended to focus on the 3400 long-short watershed, pay attention to the 3410 line of resistance, and pay attention to the 3380 line of support below. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3390-3380 TP 3400-3410-3420 SELL 3400-3390 TP 3380-3360-3350 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2