Caterpillar: Countertrend ActionCaterpillar’s green wave has further room to run. However, this rise represents only an internal countertrend – the broader correction in beige wave IV is still ongoing. Under our primary scenario, we expect the price to form another low before launching into a sustained advance, which should ultimately push above resistance at $409.40. Meanwhile, our alternative scenario—carrying a 38% probability—suggests that beige wave alt.IV has already bottomed. If that’s the case, the correction is complete, and a direct breakout above $409.40 could follow.
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Catanalysis
Caterpillar: Progress!Caterpillar has successfully fallen below the $318.68 level, marking an important step in our primary scenario. There is a 32% probability that we have already seen the low of wave alt.IV in beige, which would allow the price to move directly above the resistance at $386.48 from here. However, due to the price structure, we assume that the regular wave IV in beige still requires a new low before the next rise is scheduled. Once this important bottom of wave IV is found, there is ample potential on the upside.
Caterpillar: Digging DeeperOur forecast for Caterpillar suggests that the green wave is currently being developed. We reckon with further price drops in the short term before the beige wave IV can conclude. The pending low should then initiate a trend reversal, which should enable an upward move above $402.16. However, in the context of our 35% probable alternative scenario, the trend would reverse earlier. In this case, the beige wave alt.III would form a new high above $402.16.
Caterpillar: At site 🚧Caterpillar is at site, working on wave (2) in magenta, which should lead further downwards into the magenta-colored zone between $198.40 and $171.37. From there, the share should turn upwards again, climbing above the resistance at $266.04. However, there is a 34% chance that Caterpillar could slip through the magenta-colored zone and drop below the support at $160.02. In that case, we would expect the share to develop a new low in the form of wave alt.2 in green first before heading upwards again.
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