Alt Season: When’s the Big Boom?TOTALE100 refers to small caps or the total market capitalization of the top 100 cryptocurrencies , excluding stablecoins. It is part of the CRYPTOCAP series.
It measures the total combined market cap (price × circulating supply) of the top 100 crypto assets by market cap.
Useful for:
* Gauging overall market strength or weakness.
* Spotting macro-level trends or capital inflows/outflows into the crypto sector.
Technical Outlook:
On the weekly chart, the price is facing rejection at 16B, forming a triple-top distribution pattern.
For positioning in small caps, we should wait for a price pullback to the key support zone between 5B and 3B.
Chart Patterns
GBPJPY. |||. HITTING selling zone soonthe zone followed by a sharp rejection.
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🧠 Smart Money Insight:
Possible SMC-style reaction anticipated:
Liquidity inducement above highs
Sharp rejection from seller zone
BOS (Break of Structure) for confirmation
Right-side inset illustration highlights expected distribution before drop.
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🧩 Trading Plan:
Wait for price action confirmation in the supply zone.
Look for M15/H1 shift in structure and strong bearish engulfing patterns.
Risk management is key: Place stop-loss above zone highs.
BTC/USD – Liquidity Sweep at Highs Signals Potential ReversalBTC/USD – 30-Minute Time Frame Analysis
On the 30-minute chart, BTC/USD has recently executed a liquidity sweep above the recent highs, triggering stop-losses on the sell side. This stop-hunt behavior often indicates exhaustion of bearish momentum and the potential for a reversal.
Given this development, a short opportunity is anticipated from the current region around 105600, with a clear invalidation level above the recent highs.
Entry 105600
Stop-Loss 106312
Target 104002
This setup is based on price action and liquidity dynamics, suggesting short-term bearish pressure following the stop-run.
Outlook: Bearish below 106312, targeting 104002 as the next key level of interest.
Middle East Conflict Boosts Gold – But Is a Pullback Coming FirsGold is surging as the Middle East conflict intensifies, fueling a rush to safety. We’ve seen a clear breakout from the recent range, with a significant gap up at the open. While momentum could drive price to new highs, I’m eyeing a pullback to key zones for a cleaner entry—either at the trendline retest or a daily weakness setup.
ITC🔷 ITC Trade Setup Summary
Key Element Details
Trade Type BUY (Long)
Entry Price ₹416
Stop Loss ₹380
Target Price ₹604
Risk ₹36
Reward ₹188
Risk-Reward 5.2 : 1
Last High ₹498
Last Low ₹392
✅ Trade is trend-aligned across all timeframes.
📌 Entry at ₹416 is at the top of a demand cluster (monthly to intraday) – ideal for breakout continuation.
🔷 Setup Logic
✅ All trends UP: From Yearly down to 60 min – strong alignment.
📈 Entry sits just above a dense demand cluster (₹380–₹416) – smart and safe.
🛡️ Stop Loss (₹380) is protected by all demand zones.
🎯 Target (₹604) is realistic long-term, breaking past the previous high of ₹498.
🔷 Strategy Recap
Action Price Reason
BUY ₹416 Breakout above demand zones (DMIP)
SL ₹380 Below demand cluster (safe risk)
Target ₹604 Swing target, above previous high
🔷 Verdict
✅ Good RR (5.2:1) — even a 30–40% move to target gives excellent profit.
✅ Ideal for swing or positional traders.
⚠️ Watch for price consolidation around ₹416–₹420 before breakout.
🔷 Multi-Timeframe Demand Zone Breakdown
Timeframe Zone Type Zone Range (₹) Avg Price Remarks
Yearly BUFL 340 – 307 324 Strong long-term demand base
Half-Yearly BUFL 340 – 307 324 Matches yearly zone
Quarterly BUFL 372 – 357 365 Consolidation before breakout
Monthly DMIP 416 – 380 398 Entry sits on top of this zone
Weekly DMIP + Swap 416 – 380 398 Strong structure at entry area
Daily DMIP 402 – 380 391 Repeated buying interest
Intraday DMIP 407 – 394 401 Confirming strong near-term demand
US30 (Dow Jones) Analysis – June 2025 Outlook📊 US30 (Dow Jones) Analysis – June 2025 Outlook
🔍 1. Fundamental Analysis
The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is currently navigating a complex environment shaped by macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical tensions. Below is an in-depth review of current factors influencing its price action:
🏦 Monetary Policy & Economic Indicators
Federal Reserve Stance:
After a series of rate hikes between 2022 and 2024, the Fed has adopted a more dovish tone in 2025.
Market consensus now expects the Fed to cut rates by Q3–Q4 2025 as inflation cools and growth moderates.
Inflation:
The May 2025 CPI came in lower than expected at 2.7% YoY, signaling disinflation.
Core CPI and PCE data also reflect a slowing pace of price increases, strengthening the case for easing.
Labor Market:
Non-farm payrolls have stabilized, but wage growth is slowing.
Unemployment remains low at 3.8%, but job creation is skewed toward lower-paying service sectors.
Growth Metrics:
ISM Manufacturing PMI remains below 50 (contraction), but Services PMI is resilient.
Consumer confidence dipped recently, reflecting uncertainty, yet consumer spending remains robust.
🌍 Geopolitical Climate
Iran–Israel Conflict Escalation (Mid 2025):
The recent Iran-Israel military clashes have rattled markets, briefly triggering risk-off flows.
The conflict has led to spikes in crude oil prices, pushing energy stocks higher but raising concerns about inflation re-acceleration.
US–China Relations:
Ongoing trade tensions over semiconductors and AI have led to sanctions on key Chinese tech firms.
Despite this, tech-heavy indices remain resilient due to domestic demand and AI sector optimism.
Global Monetary Policy Divergence:
While the Fed is dovish, the ECB has already started cutting rates, boosting global liquidity.
This divergence supports capital inflows into US equities, especially defensive and industrial sectors represented in the Dow.
📉 2. Technical Analysis (Smart Money Concepts)
The daily chart of US30, as annotated, reflects a clear transition from a bearish structure to a bullish regime, validated by Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology:
🔄 Market Structure Shift
Bearish Trend: Price was forming Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) into early 2025.
Change of Character (ChoCH): A significant bullish shift occurred with a closure above 42842, invalidating the prior LH and suggesting institutional buying.
Break of Structure (BOS): Followed by a clean higher high, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
🧱 Key SMC Levels & Zones
Buy Zone (Demand):
Between 41,600 and 41,800, this region aligns with:
A previous Higher Low (HL)
A visible Fair Value Gap (FVG)/Imbalance
Psychological support zone
Expected to be a strong institutional demand zone for a long setup.
IDM (Intermediate Demand Mitigation):
Minor liquidity grab possible before retest of buy zone.
An early sign of bullish intent may appear here.
Bearish Invalidation Level:
41,179 is the key structural level.
A daily closure below 41,179 would invalidate bullish bias and trigger a bearish BOS.
📈 Trend & Liquidity Outlook
Liquidity Pools:
Sell-side liquidity rests below recent HLs, particularly near IDM and the Buy Zone.
Buy-side liquidity above recent HH (~43,800) is the next target if price rebounds.
Trendline Support:
Ascending trendline from April continues to hold.
Acts as dynamic support intersecting the Buy Zone in late June.
Targets:
TP1: 43,000 (recent swing high)
TP2: 43,800–44,000 (liquidity magnet zone)
Final Supply Zone: 45,078 (historical resistance, visible on chart)
📌 Scenario Planning (SMC-Based)
Primary (Bullish) Scenario:
Price retraces into Buy Zone (41,600–41,800).
Forms bullish engulfing or displacement candle.
Entry long → Target 43,800+, SL below 41,179.
Alternate (Bearish) Scenario:
Price closes below 41,179 (breaks structure).
Bias flips to bearish.
Next support zone lies around 40,300–40,500.
NOTE: ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
Critical Point Price appears to be moving in an upward parallel channel. Now it is testing support at the bottom of the parallel channel. Price is also testing the 200 EMA (10.17). If the Bulls have their way price will go through the 10.70 price and then 11.00. If the Bears have their way price will drop to the 9.75 area and below. Let us see how price reacts around the 200 EMA.
AUDUSD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25For AUD/USD here (0.6487) I’d peg the odds roughly at:
Rally above 0.6943 first ~60%
Drop below 0.6031 first ~40%
Why a tilt to the upside?
Higher-low structure: Since last year’s low near 0.594, price has formed progressively higher retracements (0.620 → 0.635 → 0.648).
Momentum: Daily candles have been predominantly bullish with shallow pullbacks, and there’s room before any clear overbought signals.
Mid‐range flip: The 0.6031 zone has held as support and the current range midpoint (~0.649) has been reclaimed on a sustained basis—suggesting buyers are in control through the mid‐band.
SOLUSDT | The Final Liquidity Hunt | $250 is the Next StopSOLUSDT is currently in an uptrend after recently breaking out of its extended downtrend to $95 which took out millions of long positions. Now, we are seeing yet another extended downtrend on the lower time frame, but the overall direction is still up.
Last week, price action printed two very bullish pinbars at the $155 level which could have been considered support, where price was consolidating around late April. High leverage traders entered here and eventually got liquidated last Friday.
Following the liquidity hunt, price reversed quickly, but not strong enough to reclaim the $155 zone. Many of those who were liquidated likely re-entered on this fast move, thinking that the liquidity hunt is over and price cannot move lower.
I am anticipating one FINAL move down to $140 before the uptrend resumes. This will be the move that takes out the dumb money and where smart money will take their positions. The alternative is that the liquidity hunt never happens, and price breaks out of the falling wedge to resume its uptrend.
What about macro and micro factors?
⚖️ Ripple vs SEC Case
On 8th May, both parties agreed to settle, which ignited a massive market-wide rally. Unfortunately, their filings were rejected due to a procedural issue. The next deadline for refiling is on 16th June. Once accepted, we can expect another massive rally.
🤝 US-China Trade Talks
This week, US and China will meet at the negotiation table again. On 12th May, US & China reached a deal in Geneva and sent markets on another rally. IF (big if) they come to another deal this time, we can expect another rally.
✂️ Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The Fed talked about cutting interest rates in late 2025. They are currently in a "wait and see" stance however, due to uncertainties. Eventually we will see a rate cut, and I believe this would be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Markets will price in the anticipated rate cut before it happens later this year.
Our first price target is $250.
POWER GRID🔹 Trade Setup Summary
Trade Type: Buy (Long)
Entry: ₹278
Stop Loss (SL): ₹258
Target: ₹485
Risk: ₹20
Reward: ₹207
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 10.4:1
Last High: ₹366
Last Low: ₹247
✅ All timeframes are UPTREND
✅ Entry at ₹278 is inside strong demand zones
✅ SL ₹258 is well protected by zone boundaries
✅ Target ₹485 is ambitious but realistic in trend continuation
🔹 Why This Trade Works
📊 All trends are UP – from yearly to 60-min.
💪 Strong support between ₹277–278, where price is likely to bounce.
🎯 Target is above previous high (₹366) – next leg of uptrend.
🛡️ Risk is limited (₹20) with a very high reward potential (₹207).
🔹 Clear Strategy
Action Price Reason
Buy ₹278 Inside monthly/weekly/daily demand zone
Stop Loss ₹258 Below all key demand zones
Target ₹485 Swing target based on trend & breakout
🔹 Zone Analysis (Multi-Timeframe Demand Zones)
Timeframe Zone (Proximal – Distal) Zone Avg Remarks
Yearly 240 – 153 197 Strong long-term base
Half-Yearly 240 – 226 233 Long-term support
Quarterly 298 – 226 262 Deep demand, includes entry
Monthly 299 – 257 278 Entry matches exact average
Weekly 278 – 258 268 Entry + SL inside this zone
Daily 285 – 277 281 Strong recent demand
Intraday 285 – 277 281 Multiple overlaps here
XUA/USD) Bullish trand support level Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute timeframe, incorporating a support zone and trendline confluence strategy. Here's a breakdown
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Analysis Summary
Key Technical Elements:
1. Uptrend Channel:
Price is trading within a rising channel.
Higher highs and higher lows indicate bullish momentum.
2. Support Zones:
Key Support Level (near 3,400): A horizontal support zone has been marked where price previously bounced (confirmed by green arrows).
Trendline Support: This upward sloping trendline adds confluence to the horizontal support zone.
3. EMA 200 (3,377.96):
Acts as a dynamic support level.
Price is well above the EMA, supporting bullish sentiment.
4. Projected Price Move:
The chart anticipates a dip back to the support area (~3,400), followed by a bullish bounce.
Target is clearly defined at 3,504.01, with a measured move of about +103.36 points from the support.
5. RSI Indicator:
RSI is around 57, which is neutral to slightly bullish.
No overbought/oversold signal yet – supporting potential for more upside.
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Bullish Bias Reasoning:
Confluence Zone: Horizontal + trendline + EMA 200.
Healthy Price Structure: Higher lows being maintained.
Momentum Indicator (RSI) supports continuation.
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Risks / Considerations:
If price breaks below the confluence support (~3,400), bullish invalidation may occur.
Monitor for false breakouts or heavy selling pressure near resistance.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Plan
Buy Zone: Around 3,400 (support confluence).
SL: Below the trendline/EMA – e.g., 3,370 or lower.
TP: Around 3,504 (target zone marked).
Please support boost this analysis)
Macro enviornment effects on equities - Flat to Bearish The current macro-geopolitical environment presents several quantifiable bearish pressures on the Nasdaq. Housing markets are showing real signs of deterioration, with home listings in Florida and other regions down 15–20% from peak prices, and many individual properties seeing $100K+ price cuts—foreshadowing a broader 24–30% drawdown in real estate that could significantly erode consumer wealth and confidence. Labor market weakness is emerging beneath the surface, with rising layoffs in tech and new graduates facing difficulty securing jobs, even as the Fed is projected to cut rates twice by year-end. While disinflation supports policy easing, it is being outweighed by the drag from labor and housing stress. Geopolitically, the escalation risk in the Iran–Israel conflict introduces volatility and commodity price spikes, while the Ukraine war, though stagnating, remains unresolved. U.S. foreign policy appears increasingly erratic, adding further uncertainty premium. These elements combine to create a risk environment where upside in the Nasdaq is capped, and downside exposure remains
Flat to Bearish for the next 12 months, drawdown up to 25% to December 2021 high on NDX and support line during recent tariff crashes. long sustained drawdown would sustain for a while if we get into situations like housing collapse, or entering into a war, even indirectly like we did for Ukraine.
significant. NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
EURUSD 1Hr chart Analaysis EUR/USD is likely to enter a bearish phase, potentially reaching the 1.14069–1.13389 range. This area is a strong candidate for a potential rebound; however, the pair may continue its downward trend. One of the main driving factors behind this bearish momentum is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is contributing to broader market uncertainty and risk-off sentiment.
EURUSD ||| '' W '' PATTERN IDENTIFIED . ✅ Harmonic Formation (Bearish Potential)
⚠️ Selling Bias forming soon
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🧩 Pattern Breakdown:
A Bearish Harmonic Pattern (likely Butterfly or Deep Crab) has been identified and is now nearing completion at the D point.
Current price is approaching key resistance / reversal zone, precisely around the 0.786 - 0.886 fib area (highlighted red).
The Risk-to-Reward is clearly mapped:
🔺 Stop Loss: 1.19405
✅ Entry Zone: Around 1.17106
🎯 Target: 1.09588
Potential short setup if price respects the harmonic symmetry and fails to break above resistance.
ETH SHOWING RESILIENCE! LONG OPPORTUNITY.After weeks of sideways price action, ETH has displayed multiple signals that regardless of worldwide geopolitical issues, we find ourselves in a great spot to trade the FIB channel, along with a simple trend exhaustion.
This is my personal favourite when it comes to perspective of what is really happening within the crypto space at the moment.
Lets get into the details!
Trading within the FIB if the support levels can hold, we have tested the $2500 support level multiple times, we have also seen a BULLISH FLAG with a break down, into a PERFECT CUP & HANDLE to the upside.
Along with confirmation of the trend exhaustion, we are seeing an uptick of bulls coming into the market and protecting the precious $2500 support line.
As long as ETH remains above $2500 and can continue to trade within the FIB channel, this is a great opportunity to long.
ETH is showing is resilience, lets see how this long trade plays out.
This is my opinion only, do not use this as financial advice. Good luck and lets get some gains! 🚀