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A few trends in China's economyToday, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation. Youth unemployment While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018 (back then, it stood at around 10%), with government programs promoting a higher level of education contributing to the problem. As a matter of fact, this year, in June, the youth unemployment rate hit a staggering 21.3%, prompting the Chinese government to stop reporting the number. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of China’s unemployment rate. Demographics and fertility Another big issue in China is the country’s aging population and declining fertility among women. The median age has risen from 28.9 years in 2000 to 34.1 years in 2010 and 37.4 years in 2020. On the other hand, the average number of births per woman stood at 1.6 in 2000; in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017, the average rose to 1.8. But since 2018, the rate has been rapidly collapsing. In 2021, the number stood at 1.2, representing approximately 33% decline since 2018. China’s deflation As much of the Western world grapples with inflation, China has the opposite problem. For November 2023, the country recorded -0.5% deflation compared to the previous year. With that said, there were three periods when China experienced deflation (annually) since the 1990s. The first period occurred between 1998 and 1999, when the annual inflation rate was -0.8% and -1.4%. The second instance took place in 2002, and the third in 2007. For the eleven months of 2023, the inflation rate averages about 0.3%, the lowest figure since 2009. Housing prices Amid the ongoing property crisis in China, house prices have been sliding down this year. Actually, there were only two prints when the year-over-year change was not negative, particularly in June 2023 (coming in at 0.1%) and July 2023 (coming in at 0%). Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:HSI
by Tradersweekly
2
Top Beaten-Down Chinese Stocks to Buy Right Now Reasons to buy Alibaba Group Holding Limited ( NYSE:BABA ) : Leader in the Chinese e-commerce market, strong track record of innovation and growth. JD.com, Inc. ( NASDAQ:JD ) : Well-established and profitable company with a strong market position, benefiting from the growth of the Chinese e-commerce market Baidu, Inc.( NASDAQ:BIDU ) : Dominant player in the Chinese search market, strong track record of innovation, expanding into new markets, such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence BZUN X, Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) : Rapidly growing company with a strong market position, benefiting from the growth of the Chinese fintech market I would recommend allocating your funds as follows: BABA: 40% JD: 30% BIDU: 20% BZUN: 10% This Chinese portfolio is designed to provide you with exposure to the Chinese stock market while also diversifying your risk. BABA is the largest company in the Chinese e-commerce market and has a strong track record of innovation and growth. JD is another well-established e-commerce company with a strong market position. BIDU is the leading search engine in China and is also expanding into new markets, such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence. BZUN is a rapidly growing fintech company with a strong market position. I believe that this portfolio is a good investment for the long term. The Chinese economy is growing rapidly and is expected to continue to grow in the years to come. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including an expanding middle class, rising urbanization, and increasing consumer spending. As the Chinese economy grows, so too will the Chinese stock market. I recommend you should consider your own individual circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Boost the idea for more content
NYSE:BABALong
by SabahEquityResearch
3
China50 forming a bottom?CN50USD - 24h expiry Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Posted a Bullish Hammer Bottom on the 4 hour chart. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 11165 level. We look to Buy at 11150 (stop at 11050) Our profit targets will be 11400 and 11450 Resistance: 11420 / 11690 / 11880 Support: 10910 / 10550 / 10360 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDLong
by OANDA
Anta Sports: Turning Point Reached 🛑The bears dominated Anta Sports' price action last week, causing further sell-offs. Given this development, we do not consider the magenta wave (x) to be over yet and give it some room to fall. However, the price should not fall too much further and especially not below the support level of HK$67.85. Above this level, the low should be reached and the bullish move in the form of the magenta-colored wave (y) should resume. On the other hand, a break below this level would trigger our alternative scenario, to which we assign a fairly high probability of 44%, which would entail a direct completion of the green wave (2).
HKEX:2020Long
by MarketIntel
$CNINTR - Interest Rates Cut- The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. The cuts follow reductions in other interest rates last week. The LPR sets the interest that commercial banks charge their best clients, and serves as the benchmark for household and corporate lending. The one-year rate affects most new and outstanding loans, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of longer term loans, such as mortgages. This is the first time the PBOC has cut both LPR rates since August 2022, when renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn were pummeling the economy.
ECONOMICS:CNINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Australian dollar on a roller-coaster, US NFP loomsThe Australian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6611, up 0.14%. It has been a roller-coaster week for the Australian dollar. After declining 1.88% early in the week, the Aussie rebounded on Thursday and gained 0.80%. Today's US nonfarm payrolls report could result in further volatility from the Australian dollar in today's North American session. All eyes are on the US nonfarm payroll release later today. After falling sharply in October to 150,000 from a revised 297,000, nonfarm payrolls are expected to rebound to 180,000. If nonfarm payrolls are weaker than expected, speculation of a Fed rate cut will rise, while a hot report would undermine market confidence that a rate hike isn't too far away. Outside the headline data, average hourly earnings will be closely watched, as wage growth is a key driver of inflation. The consensus estimate for average hourly earnings in November stands at 0.3% m/m, compared to 0.2% in October. A higher-than-expected reading could generate a market reaction and give the US dollar a lift. Australia's largest trading partner is China and the slowdown in the world's second-largest economy will likely dampen Australia's economy. China's economic woes were reflected in this week's Australian GDP, which posted a weak 0.2% gain for the third quarter, compared to the 0.4% gain in Q2. Notably, exports dropped for the first time since Q1 2022. China's economic slowdown has resulted in disinflationary pressures. Chinese CPI decreased 0.1% in October and another 0.1% decline is expected in the November release on Saturday. If China's economy continues to weaken, demand for Australian exports could fall even further and that could weigh on the Australian dollar. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6603. Above, there is resistance at 0.6639 0.6530 and 0.6494 are providing support
by OANDA
Petrochina: Please reverse! 🔄Last week, the PetroChina share price continued its downward trend and has now reached the level at which it should form the low of the blue wave (iv) in our primary scenario. Consequently, it should soon stabilize and stop its downward movement. With the low in its pocket, a further rise is then on the cards to complete the turquoise wave 4. Only when this overarching movement is completed should stronger declines follow. However, there is also an alternative scenario with a fairly high probability of 40% that would come into effect if the sell-off continues into next week. In this case, the high of the turquoise wave alt.4 would already be in place and the price would be in the subsequent downtrend.
HKEX:857Long
by MarketIntel
SUN/USDT 1D. Main trend. Secondary. Local. All main details.Coin Sun. This is an altcoin from the TRX ecosystem. Other coins in this ecosystem are: NFT, JST, BTTC(BTT), TRX. On the backstage of XRP rise(China money partly) TRX class of assets also look very interesting. In this idea i'll share my view on SUN from TRX group of assets. From the beginning of the trading history coin has been dumping, which is basic for almost every altcoin. After reaching certain prices trend reversed and broke the main downtrend. After that the retest followed and that was also the moment of the beginning of big diamond forming. I remind you that diamond is a reversal of the trend pattern, also consider the timeframe it's forming on(the bigger the TF the stronger the formation). This diamond is forming already for something about 400 days. Local and midterm trends are shown on the chart. Also consider the volume spring shown, which means that there's a potential for big impulse soon. Local targets and zones are shown on the chart. Capitalization of this coin is 55m$ as for the moment of writing. So there's quite a potential of 10x on the high of the trend. This will be 666 zone...
Long
by TradingTsar
2
Leveraging the AUDUSD Strength Amidst USD WeaknessThere has been an opportunity that has emerged due to the recent fluctuations in currency values and the growing demand for copper exports to China. As you may be aware, the USD has been experiencing a period of weakness, while the AUD has shown signs of strength. This presents an advantageous situation, as we can leverage the stronger Australian dollar against the weaker US dollar. In light of this, I propose that we explore the possibility of exporting copper to China. With the AUDUSD exchange rate in our favor, we can maximize our profits by capitalizing on China's increasing demand for copper. China, being one of the largest consumers of copper worldwide, offers a lucrative market for our manufacturing. By exporting copper to China, there is a growing demand and take advantage of the current exchange rate of AUDUSD.
Long
by bryandowningqln
$LTHM STOCK - Time for Growth?📈 LIVENT Lithium Analysis - CHINA Destocking / Supply shocks & Merger Speculations Welcome to Helios Capital Investment! In today's video, we dive deep into the world of lithium and dissect the financial landscape of Livent Corporation (Ticker Symbol: LTHM), a key player in lithium extraction and refining. 🌐 Market Dynamics: With the lithium market being a crucial player in the global shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy, Livent has been navigating through turbulent waters. Our analysis explores the impact of China's destocking efforts on lithium prices and how Livent is positioned to weather this storm. 💼 Merger Imminent? Rumors are swirling about a potential merger, and we break down the implications for Livent and its investors. What could this mean for the company's strategic positioning and market share? 📊 Financial Performance: Delving into Livent's financials, we examine revenue trends, costs, and the company's ability to maintain a competitive edge in the lithium sector. How has Livent performed in comparison to industry benchmarks, and what does this mean for its future? 📉📈 Stock Analysis: We take a close look at Livent's stock performance, assessing key indicators and considering factors such as valuation and growth potential. Is now the right time to invest, or are there warning signs that investors should be aware of? 🤔 Key Questions Addressed: How is Livent positioned in the face of China's destocking efforts? What are the potential outcomes and impacts of a rumored merger? Can Livent maintain its competitive edge in the lithium market? 👍 If you find this analysis valuable, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more in-depth financial content! Let's navigate the markets together.
LLong
by Helios_Capital_Investment
3
$NVDA downside gap-fill potential!NASDAQ:NVDA ,1D: Price dipped just below the 50% line and popped back up over the line after coming off the local lows at 403. Given the 'uncertainty' around the level and duration of a 'higher for longer' rate environment along with the market's general preference for 'clarity' over 'uncertainty', it would not be unreasonable to expect the 'increased volatility' that comes with 'uncertainty' until some level of 'clarity' can be established around the duration of the current 'higher rate environment'. Further adding to the potential for 'market uncertainty' and 'lack of clarity' are the tenuous and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China around access to semi-conductor IP. NASDAQ:NVDA utilizes the cost benefits provided to its model from the 'cost efficiency' of both Chinese and greater Asia's manufacturing and production capacities. Were trade relations around semi-conductor IP between China and the U.S. to become 'less amenable', the deterioration of that relationship could adversely impact NASDAQ:NVDA 's margins. If NASDAQ:NVDA had to re-establish production/manufacturing supply chain relationships elsewhere this could inject 'uncertainty' into the price discovery process. These are 'unknown unknowns' at this point and hard to factor into analysis, but at a minimum, they would increase the potential for 'market uncertainty' and the subsequent 'lack of clarity', which often leads to 'price volatility' until some level of 'certainty' could be re-established. Looking at our 1 day RSI against price I am seeing a 'bearish divergence' whereby price makes 'higher-highs' and 'higher-lows' while the RSI prints 'lower-highs' and 'lower-lows'. This can be taken as a 'leveling off' of momentum that often precedes a change in price direction or, at a minimum, a significant pull back within a constructive trend. (see light violet curves) I would expect that a downside 'gap fill' could be a 'necessary evil' at some point in time across the next 6 weeks or so, and before further gains to the upside could probabilistically be portended from a structural standpoint. The bottom of the gap fill is roughly in confluence with the YTD VWAP (peach). NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALL STOCKS CAN GO TO ZERO.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Firewalker_Charts
2
China Life Insurance: Bounced back🎾After placing the low of the blue wave (ii) at the lower border of the orange target zone between $10.10 and $11.32, China Life Insurance's share price initially rose to the upper border of the target zone last week, gaining over 12%. However, the price has not yet been able to sustainably break out of the zone, causing it to bounce and fall again. As a result, entry opportunities remain within the zone on the long side, with stops placed around 1% below the lower border. We expect the price to rise well above the zone and cross the resistance at HK$15.84. Only an imminent break below the support level at HK$8.53 would diminish this outlook. This would activate the 33% probable alternative, which involves a lower low of the green wave alt.(2).
HKEX:2628Long
by MarketIntel
NZD/USD slides on RBA decision, mixed Chinese dataThe New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5927, down 0.61%. It has been a roller-coaster ride for the New Zealand currency, which continues to swing wildly. Last week, NZD/USD surged 3.24%, its best weekly performance since October 2022. This week has been all red for the New Zealand dollar, which has fallen 1.19%. Today's Reserve Bank of Australia decision sent the Australian dollar reeling and also dragged down the New Zealand dollar, as there is a strong correlation between the two trans-Tasman currencies. The Australian dollar is down 1.16% against its US counterpart, despite the RBA raising rates by a quarter point to 4.35%. The language in the RBA statement was somewhat dovish, stating that the rate hike was meant to ensure that "inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.” This signalled an easing of the RBA's tightening basis and raised expectations that the RBA may have completed its tightening cycle or is very close to that stage. The RBA statement included the usual rhetoric that future rate decisions would be data-dependent and rate hikes were still on the table, but the markets jumped on the dovish language and ignored the rate increase, which follows four straight pauses. The strong market reaction suggests that the investors believe that the RBA is unlikely to raise rates even though inflation remains well above the 2%-3% target range and inflation expectations have been stubbornly high. The New Zealand dollar also lost ground due to mixed Chinese data. Imports rebounded in October with a gain of 3.0% y/y following a 6.2% decline in September and beating the market consensus of -4.8%. However, exports fell 6.4% after a 6.2% decline in September and missed the market consensus of -3.3%. This marked a sixth successive decline, indicative of continuing weak global demand for Chinese goods. New Zealand releases Inflation Expectations for the fourth quarter on Wednesday. The market consensus stands at 2.60%, after a 2.79% gain in Q3. An unexpected reading could have a sharp impact on the movement of the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5929. The next support line is 0.5858 There is resistance at 0.5996 and 0.6069
by OANDA
Hang Seng Index: Motivated! 💪The bulls were able to push the Hang Seng Index significantly higher on Friday, moving it further away from the yellow trading range between 17,424 and 15,571. However, we still expect the price to return to this area as part of the magenta wave (2) to make a lower low before the reversal occurs. That said, given the price action so far, we have to increase the probability of our alternative to 41%. In this case, the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) would already be in place and this scenario would come into play on a rise above the resistance at 18,898. However, it should be noted that our long-term expectation has already been fulfilled with the completion of the trading range. In both cases, there is considerable upside potential in the medium to long term. The price should clearly overcome the resistance at 20,899.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
ALUMINIUM PRICES MIGHT BE PULLED UP DUE TO CHINA DEMANDChina's aluminum market in 2023 stands out for its resilience, with prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) bucking global trends by climbing over 1%, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw an 8% slump. This divergence is largely credited to the strength of China's green sector and decarbonization efforts. An open arbitrage window, created by SHFE outperforming LME, has led to a substantial increase in aluminum imports into China, mainly from Russia due to sanctions imposed by Western buyers after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite the surge in imports, domestic aluminum production in China has reached new highs, partly due to an improved hydropower supply in Yunnan province. However, potential disruptions during the upcoming dry season could impact production and increase imports. Low domestic aluminum inventories underscore robust domestic demand, with SHFE stocks at their lowest levels since March 2019. Beijing's decarbonization initiatives have driven aluminum demand, particularly in renewable energy-related manufacturing. Notably, the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicles (NEV) sector and the critical role of aluminum in battery electric vehicles highlight its significance in this industry. The solar sector, another major aluminum consumer, continues to expand, with China leading in solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions. This growth in green sectors is expected to counterbalance weaknesses in traditional sectors, sustaining demand for aluminum. China's aluminum market exemplifies a unique blend of domestic resilience, increasing imports, and a strong emphasis on green industries, all contributing to the sector's dynamics in 2023. On a technical note, MACD and RSI are still in the neutral and sell zone, but are rising up and buy signals are starting to form. If the trend continues, the price might reach levels of 2241, in the opposite scenario the price might revert to levels of 2178. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
PEPPERSTONE:ALUMINIUMLong
by legacyFXofficial