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Soft landing calls for tough choices2023 has been a tough year for stock pickers. The gap between equity factor styles has been vast over H1. Growth, riskier in nature, posted the best performance up 24% year-to-date (YTD) followed closely behind by quality up 20% YTD1. The excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) reached a fever pitch in H1 2023, supporting growth-oriented technology stocks. As we enter H2 2023, we remain constructive on select areas of global equity markets. The resilience of the US economy has defied all odds. The strength of the US consumer (accounting for 70% of GDP), alongside the fiscal impulse, has been the cornerstone of the US’ extraordinary resilience. While inflation has shown encouraging signs of decline in the US, strong economic momentum alongside a rebound in commodities raises the risk of a re-acceleration of inflation. In turn, rates could remain higher for longer, resulting in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts being delayed until Q1 2024. In such an environment, an enhanced equity income approach could fit well. Even if the earnings outlook weakens in China, proactive policy support via rate cuts could support its stock multiples. In Europe, where we are likely to witness a mild recession, we believe adopting a more cautious and defensive approach is warranted. Earnings revision ratios remain the strongest in Japan while they are the weakest in emerging markets. US equities are the belle of the ball It was the narrowest market in history, with just 25% of stocks outperforming the S&P 500. Expectations of cooling inflation aiding the Fed to end its current tightening cycle supported the performance of higher-duration growth stocks. For investors calling for a soft landing, rates are likely to remain at current levels or higher for a longer duration of time. A tight US labour market, with unemployment at historic lows and rising wages, is likely to slow the downward pricing momentum in the service sector. As the market regime transitions, it should provide a ripe opportunity for market breadth2 to improve. Markets may begin to favour value and dividend-paying stocks. History has shown us that breadth tends to improve as the economy recovers from a downturn. Peak pessimism towards China China’s reopening rebound has faded. The transition to a less debt-fuelled, less property-reliant and more consumer-driven economy is an important adjustment. We expect government stimulus policies to be aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the private sector. Further iterations of policy rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) are likely to follow; however, outright quantitative easing won’t be on the cards, as it is likely to further weaken the yuan, which the PBOC would like to avoid. With a low correlation to US equities (at 20x P/E)3 coupled with a high valuation discount, pockets of China continue to provide good investment prospects. Pockets of opportunity in non-state-owned enterprises Non-state-owned enterprises, particularly within the Technology, Communication Services and Health Care sectors, faced the brunt of China’s regulatory crackdown. These regulatory interventions stifled growth in key sectors such as e-commerce, mobile payment, ride-hailing, and online education. It also resulted in the suspension of initial public offerings (IPOs) and delisting of Chinese internet companies. Growing political frictions in supply chains are incentivising China to regain independence in the semiconductor and hardware space. Chinese technology companies are trading at a significant discount compared to US peers, offering plenty of room to catch up. Prefer defensives over cyclicals as Europe runs out of steam Nearly six months back, investors marvelled at how the euro-area economy had emerged from the energy crisis. That momentum appears to be fading as China’s recovery slows down, consumer confidence declines, and the impact of tighter monetary policy gains a stronghold on the economy. Higher inflation over the past year is holding back demand from households, which is hurting growth. The monetary tightening over the past year not only triggered an increase in real rates, it also impacted borrowers’ credit metrics. Owing to this, eurozone banks have tightened their lending standards.4 Banks remain the primary source of corporate funding in Europe. The credit impulse—that is, the annual change in the growth of credit relative to GDP—in the euro area reached its lowest point since 2010. TINA is alive in Japan There is no alternative (TINA) to equities is still alive in Japan. This is evident from higher equity risk premiums of 2.97% for Japan compared to 0.41% in the US.5 While the rest of the world has been busy trying to quell the inflation fires, Japan has emerged from the COVID-19 lockdowns with a faster pace of growth and higher inflation. A combination of higher equity risk premiums, a weaker yen supportive of the Japanese export market, corporate reforms, and attractive valuations have been important catalysts for equities. Policy shift still remains loose The Bank of Japan (BOJ) took a significant step towards normalisation in July by announcing a further adjustment to its yield curve control (YCC) regime. The BOJ formally changing its course constitutes an acknowledgement that inflation is returning to the Japanese economy. Yet the BOJ lowered its (median) inflation forecast for fiscal year (FY) 2024 to +1.9% and left its FY 2025 projection unchanged at +1.6%, in effect justifying ongoing easing by the BOJ. With Japan’s nominal growth rising over the coming years, the revised policy by the BOJ still remains loose, supporting the case for Japanese equities. Historically, a weaker yen has benefitted the performance of Japanese exporters as it enhances their competitive advantage. Adopting a tilt towards dividend-paying Japanese equities is likely to reap the benefits of not only a weaker yen but also corporate governance reforms. Conclusion As we progress into year-end, the outlook remains more nuanced. In the US, we favour value and dividend stocks as equity market breadth improves. While China’s problems in the housing sector are likely to remain a drag on domestic demand, we do see pockets of opportunity in undervalued sectors – technology and healthcare. Given the strong manufacturing headwinds facing Europe, we expect weak growth in the eurozone for the remainder of 2023, potentially favouring a tilt towards defensive stocks. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 11 October 2023. 2 Breadth is measured by comparing the equal weighted performance versus the market cap-weighted performance of the US stocks listed on the S&P 500 Index. 3 P/E = price to earnings ratio. 4 Euro area Bank Lending Survey (BLS), April 2023. 5 Bloomberg, WisdomTree, as of 29 September 2023. Equity risk premium is the difference between the earnings yield and the respective 10-Year Government Bond Yield. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
SP:SPX
by aneekaguptaWTE
AUD/USD edges lower, China data beats expectationsThe Australian dollar started the day higher but has reversed directions. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6357, down 0.13%. The US dollar has steamrolled the Aussie, which hasn't posted a winning week since September and dropped close to a one-year low last week. The Australian dollar has bounced back this week, however, gaining 1.08%. The situation in the Middle East remains perilous, with the risk that the Israel-Hamas war could spread and ignite a regional war. President Joe Biden has arrived in Israel, a move intended as a warning to Iran and others not to enter the conflict. The fighting has not affected risk sentiment, as investors haven't panicked and snapped up greenbacks. Still, the Middle East is a powder keg at present and if the situation worsens, we could see a flight to the US dollar. Australia will release employment numbers on Thursday. Job growth has been solid and posted a strong gain of 64,900 in August. Employment is expected to fall sharply to 20,000 in September. Unemployment has been at low levels and is expected to remain at 3.7% for a third straight month. China is Australia's number one trading partner, which means that Chinese releases can have a significant impact on the Australian economy. China's post-Covid recovery has been much weaker than expected, and deflationary pressures and a property crisis could have negative implications for the global economy. Chinese released key data on Wednesday and all three releases beat expectations. GDP for Q3 rose 4.9% y/y, above the consensus estimate of 4.4% but well shy of second-quarter growth of 6.3%. Retail sales for September climbed 5.5% y/y, up from 4.6% in August and above expectations of 4.9%. Finally, industrial production was unchanged in September at 4.5% y/y, compared to the consensus estimate of 4.3%. China's economy may be in better shape than expected, but the road to recovery is likely to be a bumpy one. AUD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6343. Below, there is support at 0.6240 0.6399 and 0.6430 are the next resistance lines
by fisherkj4
London Metals Exchange Week 2023 reviewAs London Metals Exchange Week 2023 wraps up, we summarise some of the key observations for the state of the base metals in 2023 and what are likely to drivers for the markets going into 2024. Better than the macro data would indicate Despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop especially in China, metal demand is holding up fairly well. Demand indicators are generally holding up better than macroeconomic data would suggest, indicating other forces are at play. The main diver of the discrepancy is likely to be the shift in demand for metals coming from the energy transition. The upside surprise in Chinese demand can be linked to accelerated grid spending in the country which is a metal intensive activity (Figure 1). China has ‘net zero’ ambitions and has been using this era of relatively low copper prices to accelerate the buildout of its grid infrastructure that will be essential for increasing the capacity of electric vehicles on its roads. More broadly, China’s piece-meal stimulus activity is starting to bear fruits. Aggregate financing to the real economy has turned a corner after several months of disappointment and is now rising faster than consensus expectations, which could bode well for further metal demand. It’s worth noting that copper demand in China had not fallen as much as aggregate financing data would have indicated (Figure 2). We believe the stimulus will continue to support the metals market into 2024, although we note that China has not yet offered a big ‘bazooka’ of a stimulus package yet. More metal supply in 2024 Markets are concerned that the supply outages in a range of metals could reverse course next year and therefore start to weigh on price. In its latest projections, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) now envisages a massive supply surplus of 467,000 tonnes in 2024 (previously 298,000 tonnes). This is thanks to a considerable expansion of refined copper production, especially in China, though new production capacities in Indonesia, India and the US are also set to contribute to nearly 5% year-on-year production growth in 2024. However, the group maintain a deficit forecast in 2023 in the order of 27,000 tonnes, albeit a narrower deficit compared to their April forecast of 114,000 tonnes. Other metal study groups (such as the International Nickel Study Group, International Lead and Zinc Study Group) that met the prior week also expect higher supplies. However, we note that a lot of European metal smelters that went offline during the energy crisis of 2022 are unlikely to come back. Furthermore, these forecasts are based on all planned production coming to the market, which is rarely the case. Usually a 1-2% supply disruption takes place and that has the potential to significantly alter the balance. Nickel oversupply spilling into Class 1 Market participants are increasingly worried about a Class 1 nickel oversupply in 2024. Indonesia’s mining and processing expansion has largely impacted Class 2 nickel. That is the material most suitable for meeting Chinese demand for nickel pig iron (NPI). High quality, Class 1 nickel, however, has been in a supply deficit in recent years. Class 1 has seen increasing demand from battery applications as electric vehicles expand production (and utilisation). However, conversion of Class 2 to Class 1 is looking increasingly economically feasible and Indonesia is at the forefront. There is even potential for a trade deal that could see Indonesian supply become Inflation Reduction Act compliant. That could see US battery demand be met by a new source of metal supply. At the same time, what was thought to be a localised shift to less nickel-intense battery technology in China, could become a more global trend. That is also a source of concern for the market. Market developments The London Metal Exchange (LME) Chief Executive Matthew Chamberlain announced at the main LME dinner that the LME has launched a new collaboration on product development with its Chinese rival, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). The announcement came after news last month that SHFE was looking into the possible launch of a nickel futures contract for international use. A much larger proportion of industrial nickel use today is Class 2 rather than Class 1. China is seen as the main venue for transactions in Class 2 nickel and should have a greater role in benchmark price formation. The Class 1 LME contract thus has a degree of disconnect with the bulk of current industrial use and therefore has been seen as an imperfect hedging tool. While the LME didn’t offer much detail about its collaboration with the SHFE, an obvious area for joint work is in nickel. Conclusions Overall, the mood at the LME week was sombre, not just because of the geopolitical events that took place the weekend before the event. However, many were surprised at the strength of current demand. As we have highlighted, commodities tend to be late-cycle performers and we are likely seeing that in play in the current economic cycle. The energy transition is adding further fuel to metal demand that could help the complex during otherwise challenging times if a perfect soft-landing is not achieved. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
EUREX:FCIN1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
$GOLD Index - Q3/2023 *3M (Quarterly) Looking at TVC:GOLD on the 3M(Monthly) Tf(Time-frame) from an investor perspective view of positioning; (long-term investing on the yellow stone) we can see it sitting at no men's land at the current price, as well Changing Character and Breaking Market Structer (Lower Low) in price action ; (Lows of Q2) Despite its Bearish Price Action on *3M , States and Central Banks around the World have continued accumulating, spreading wide their balance sheets in-to TVC:GOLD Reserves . And so have done many another States, including 2 out of three Global Superpowers of China ECONOMICS:CNGRES and Russia ECONOMICS:RUGRES
TVC:GOLD
by Mr_J__fx
2
AUD trader – a big CPI print puts RBA hikes back on the table Positioning Clients are skewed long, with 63% of open interest is held looking for upside in AUDUSD. In the broad market, the big flow desks report that hedge funds (leveraged players) are small net short of AUDs, while ‘real money’ (pension funds, insurance, asset managers) have a large net short AUD exposure. Factors that could move the AUD? • The RBA minutes have put the market on notice that RBA rate hikes could make a comeback – they detailed that slower progress to get to the inflation to target (2-3%) would not be viewed favourably, and they have a lower tolerance for inflation. Housing is a key focal point, with Australian city house prices gaining for 7 straight months – the RBA noted that they’re seeing higher unit labour cost growth, coming in a time of declining productivity, which they see as inflationary. • Today’s speech by RBA gov Bullock didn’t see her push back on the markets view that the minutes were considered hawkish, and the Governor didn’t guide interest rate expectations lower – this offers rates traders real confidence in their pricing. • What is priced? Aus 30-day interest rate futures now price a 34% chance of a hike at the 7 November RBA meeting and a 54% chance of a hike at the December meeting – the rates door is more than ajar. • Next Wednesday’s Australia Q3 CPI (11:30 AEDT) is, therefore, a big-ticket event risk for AUD traders and could heavily influence rate pricing and therefore the AUD. It’s too early to see the consensus expectations for the trimmed mean CPI forecast, but headline CPI is expected to fall to around 5.2% YoY (from 6%) – recall, the RBA have forecast inflation at 4.25% by year-end, so an above consensus print could suggest the bank revise their forecasts higher. Anything above 5.4% should make the 7 Nov RBA meeting a live and pricing closer to 50%. • An above consensus Q3 CPI read, and we would also see the market price a hike in the Dec meeting as a near-done deal – the AUD should like that. • AUD bulls will want to see a higher Chinese equity market with the 10-day rolling correlation between the CSI300 index and AUDUSD at reasonable 0.54. While we see the PBoC pumping liquidity into the market, China/HK property stocks can't find a friend, and we eye a thoroughly expected default today from Country Garden, as they scramble to make a $15m coupon payment. AUD bulls need to see a far better tape in the China equity market to support vs the USD – the AUD crosses seem the better tactical play. • While ongoing concerns around China’s property sector keeps international money managers from moving overweight the region, China’s economy has likely troughed and is improving – we saw that in today’s Q3 GDP print and high frequency data dump. • Calls that the govt is prepared to blow out the deficit above 3% of GDP, by issuing $130b of new debt to fund infrastructure projects is a bullish consideration. However, the recent raft of mini-stimulus measures should start to be seen in the data flow. China’s economy should improve from here, although the property sector needs to be carefully monitored. • While we watch for direction from China equity, we see Australia’s relative terms of trade (ToT) on the rise – while the sensitivity we see between the AUD and its ToT comes and goes, the fact we see it rising should support the AUD. • With geopolitical issues very much front and centre, trading the AUD against other risk-associated crosses makes sense – the US economy still looks incredibly resilient vs G10 countries and a higher AUDUSD would require the VIX index to pull back below 14% and the S&P500 to climb higher (as well as China equity). What’s the play? The best AUD bullish expression of late has been against the NZD, given both are China proxies and we can see on the daily that the market shares this view – momentum studies show higher levels into 1.0850/1.0900 before we see better supply are favoured. AUDJPY approaches the recent highs of 96.00 and I favour it to get there, but there are Japanese intervention risks with short JPY positions at this juncture. The JPY also looks attractive as a geopolitical hedge – that said, if the market feels the situation in the Middle East will be contained and FX vol falls further, then AUDJPY could benefit from carry and diverging central bank policies. GBPAUD shorts have been my favoured play, and technically price is favoured lower - we do have UK CPI due out at 5 pm today and there are risks with being short GBP. Unless it’s a significant upside surprise (consensus 6.6% headline, 6% yoy core), then the BoE are on hold for an extended period.
Long
by Pepperstone
Strong fundamental and technical China playI do like how some of the strongest plays in China are setting up for the perspective upside in Q4 and beyond. Have a look at $NASDAQ:FUTU. High double and triple digits growths of earnings and sales four quarters in a row; strong and consistent ROE numbers; high eps growth estimates. Management owns 5% of the company. In conjunction with China government plans to stimulate the economy, most of the ingredients are there to support potential price advance of FUTU into Q4. From the technical stand point, I may suggest several perspective: 1. My wave-analysis shows that a) the mid/long-term structure allows for substantial upside and b) price found important short-term support in 53 area and is now building the base before continuing advance towards next important resistance zones: 80-99. 2. Waves and fibonacci aside, notice how well the price creates a volatility contraction pattern on a weekly time-scale, with an evident accumulation signs and good weekly closes. That leads me to consider that sellers with selling volume are subsiding and buyers are ready to step in leading the price higher. Overall there is quite substantial overhead supply from devastating 90% decline since 2021, strong fundamental and at least short to mid term technical stance make NASDAQ:FUTU a valid candidate for the buy list. Trading thesis: if price manages to break-out above 67.5 with supportive volume confirmation, that shall be a buy signal. With tight 3-5-7% staggered stop loss. For cowboy type of traders, price moving above 64.10 could be a place to start opening the position with an intention of adding after 67.5 breach. The short-term analysis is valid until price holds above Oct's low of 52.
NASDAQ:FUTULong
by artemfedorov
The Semiconductor Industry and Texas Instruments Long TXN Company Overview: Texas Instruments (TXN) is a prominent and long-established semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Founded in 1930, TXN has evolved into a global leader in the semiconductor industry, with a diverse portfolio of analog and embedded processing products. Here are some key aspects of the company: Product Range: TXN specializes in analog and embedded processing semiconductors. Analog chips are designed to process real-world signals such as sound, light, temperature, and motion. They are used in a wide range of applications, from industrial and automotive systems to consumer electronics. As tensions between Taiwan and China continue to rise, it is a good idea to consider the semiconductor business as an industry to invest in. The largest chip manufacturer in Taiwan by far is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). Although TSMC focuses on digital semiconductors, the hype alone could lead many investors to add TXN to their portfolio simply because they don't understand the difference. TXN is also in a unique position, where in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict, it could certainly garner increased government funding. We are currently watching three main price points. 1. $156.00 2. $167.00 3. $186.00 We are currently hitting the direct top of our Ichimoku cloud. If we bounce here i anticipate All targets being hit within 2 months. Especially if we see geopolitical events continue in their current manner.
NASDAQ:TXNLong
by Helios_Capital_Investment
1
Hang Seng Index: High-flyer 🌟The Hang Seng Index is currently in a strong rise. As the yellow trading range between 17 424 and 15 571 points has already been approached, it is quite possible that the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) has already been set. We give this scenario a 40% probability and it would become our primary scenario if the resistance at 18 898 points is broken. Until then, however, we must continue to expect that there will be another fall deeper into the trading range before the turnaround takes place.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Do Li's electric vehicles are charged enough for Q4? One of my favourite ideas in electrical vehicle space - China's Li. Mid-term price structure still looks bullish to my eyes, despite Sep's sell-off bellow 50D MA. While the price is still under it (what is a "no-go" rule for any substantial long trades for me), I do like how price managed to find foothold slightly crossing below the ideal support zone. In the ideal world, I would argue that price is trying to form the bottom of what will later form into the lower are of a cup. That means that the price needs to hold above 33 area and start building the right side and later the handle of the reliable cup-and-handle pattern. In the short-term, I want the price to reclaim 21ema and fill the gap-down, happened late September. If the price follows through, we will see the key moving averages ordering into the right bullish sequence: 8ema/21ema/50ma what will probably provide us with the MA's crossover and at least several days tight cheat area with low risk-entry point. The fundamental side of Li's story makes almost the perfect case for the next up-cycle's true market leader: top-level triple digits earnings and sales growth last quarter, consistent double digits 3 quarters sales growth; super high annual earnings estimates. I would place a bet, that if price manages to move above 50D MA, institutional sponsorship will be increasing providing the fuel for the suggested bullish scenario.
NASDAQ:LILong
by artemfedorov
The Rig "blue horseshoe loves the next 100 baggers to the moon"it's ike buying a pair of jeans .. and not using it probably the next big thing when oil hits $100 or ARAMCO debuts soon it's all a cycle for the benefit of the few greedy players -- notice the VOLUME underneath relative to previous years.. those whales splashing discretely while price at sub $2 is at rest -- thieves like to accumulate when no one is minding "we follow the money that follows the money folks...." -- all the best and best of years ahead...
NYSE:RIG
by senyor
18
China's Long-Term Gold BuyingChina's persistent and substantial gold buying activities have been steadily driving up the price of this precious metal, presenting an exciting opportunity for traders like yourself to consider going long on gold. Over the past few years, China has been actively diversifying its foreign reserves by increasing its gold holdings. This strategic move is aimed at reducing their reliance on the US dollar and mitigating potential risks associated with global economic uncertainties. China's consistent and significant purchases have already made it the world's largest gold consumer, surpassing India. The long-term implications of China's gold buying spree cannot be overlooked. As the demand for gold continues to rise, driven by China's insatiable appetite, the price of this precious metal is likely to experience sustained upward pressure. This trend could create a favorable environment for traders who choose to go long on gold. Considering the predictable nature of China's gold buying activities and their commitment to diversify their reserves, now might be an opportune time to consider adding gold to your portfolio. By taking advantage of this trend, you could potentially benefit from the price appreciation of gold in the long term. I encourage you to carefully evaluate this opportunity and assess how it aligns with your trading strategy. Conduct thorough research, analyze market trends, and consider consulting with your financial advisor to make an informed decision. To assist you in capitalizing on this potential opportunity, I recommend keeping a close eye on China's gold buying announcements and monitoring any related market developments. Stay informed about global economic indicators and geopolitical events, as they can significantly influence the price of gold. Remember, trading always involves risks, and it is essential to exercise caution and implement appropriate risk management strategies. However, with careful analysis and a well-informed approach, going long on gold in light of China's long-term buying activities could prove to be a rewarding investment. Should you require any further information or assistance, please do not hesitate to comment.
OANDA:XAUEURLong
by bryandowningqln
LIQUIDITY MATTERS! Global liquidity vs #BitcoinLook at how the bullish green arrows and bearish red arrows show how global liquidity correlates HEAVILY with the direction of Bitcoin. T You don't have to be a genius to see how beautiful this correlation is. And how sensitive #BTC is to excess capital in the system. As a risk on asset When ppl have easy money to gamble with , a portion of that ends up in the #Crypto markets. Currently you can see how aggressive the withdrawal of liquidity is across the globe In the USA, EU, China & Japan.
FRED:WALCL
by BallaJi
EURAUD: When China's news make Aussie and other Asians strong! My dear friends, Thursday, 14 September, 2023 and ECB interest rate decision is on the way. We'll wait for confirmations. But before ECB meeting, series of several bad economical news over China's financial stability were published. Market reacted to them rationally. Suddenly the red dragon start to regain it's reputation. Good news for China means stronger Aussie, Kiwi and Yen! A personal belief: Markets are not optimist to China's long-term relations with the free world and it makes them avoid longer term investing on Asian currencies. We could expect a more bearish weeks for them in next months, however, we don't hold that much so a mid-term bearish correction could be a opportunity for us! Regarding the weekly chart, some more corrective weekly candles are expected. snapshot Considering the daily timeframe, market structure has changed so there could be a stop hunt around 1.68950 snapshot The horizontal level could be a high probable and good R-to-R entry point. Levels are based on: Order-blocks, Pivot Points, Support and resistance and Reversal points.
Short
by AliSignals
The comeback of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis in near futureAsia will be shaken to the core once again, but that's good news for China, first, for CCP it is an opportunity to step in and replace dollar with yuan, making countries in Asian region to submit to the Yuan power, de-dollarization of Asia. The first crisis was triggered by the handover of HongKong to China, this time it will be takeover of Taiwan by China. Fractals on USDTHB charts strongly suggests everything that is said above.
Long
by init4datech
5
Industrial metals continue to face headwinds as Chinese data disIndustrial metals were the worst performing commodity sector last month and were down 2.7%1. Over the last six months, the sector is down 15.2% and has created the biggest drag on the overall performance of commodities. China's real estate sector, once the engine of its economy, is now teetering on the edge of crisis because of excessive borrowing, overbuilding, and a housing slowdown. The government's crackdown on risky practices and sudden intervention in 2020 to prevent a housing bubble have led to over 50 Chinese developers defaulting or failing to make debt payments in the last three years. The consequences include reduced consumer spending due to falling housing prices, disappearing jobs tied to housing, and decreased business confidence. While policymakers have taken modest steps to address the situation, the real estate turmoil has spread to financial institutions and the broader economy, prompting concerns of a larger crisis. A build-up in industrial metal inventories over the last 3 months is consistent with market expectations of ample supply of the metals for the rest of the year, given relatively modest demand. Zinc inventory is up 96% while lead inventory is up 85% compared to 3 months ago. This is clearly weighing on sentiment towards industrial metals. Copper (COMEX) was down 2.8%1, and aluminium down 2.8%1. The only bright spot in the basket was lead, which was up 3.7% last month. Speculative positioning in COMEX copper has been oscillating between positive and negative territories in recent months and entered negative territory again last month after briefly becoming positive2. COMEX copper inventory is up around 46% compared to 3 months ago. And although copper held in COMEX is one of the smaller stores of the metal, when combining London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX, copper inventory is still 27% above where it was 3 months ago. Nickel was down 5.7% last month1. Although nickel is widely known for its use in electric vehicle batteries, a growing market, it still draws around two-thirds of its overall demand from the production of stainless steel. China's steel market has been facing pressure in August due to continued high steel production despite sluggish end-user demand. Blast furnace utilization rates have risen, but some local mills in key steelmaking provinces like Hebei and Jiangsu have not received official communication about output reductions. Uncertainty surrounds the extent of China's steel output cuts for the rest of the year, with expectations of smaller scale cuts targeting environmentally sensitive regions. Rising steel inventories are attributed to robust production and weak demand. Despite potential production cuts, market sentiment remains cautious due to these challenges, and steel prices have declined. This, in turn, is weighing on nickel. Source: 1 Bloomberg as of 21 July 2023 to 21 August 2023 2 Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as of 15 August 2023 3 change in inventory over the past 3 months by United States Department of Agriculture This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
COMEX:HG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
China downturn bet and some catalystsFundamentals AUD The slowdown of the Chinese economy drags down Australia which heavily exports to China, thus bearish sentiments in the AUD. Today economic data on China is mixed: even though there were some improvements in Manufacturing PMI, the markets couldn't hold gains in the next few hours. Such minor improvements are just a drop in the sea of current broader structural deficiencies. In addition, yesterday Australia posted weak data on Building Approvals and Construction Work Done, which are quite a catalyst for AUD weakness. USD: "Higher rates for longer" narrative. Although the employment data is expected to come out at a decline. So In case the expectations are missed, positions should be managed in a risk-averse manner. Technical & other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Aug lows Risk: 0.52%
Short
by Cherry94
Hyperinflation China (CNY) + Japan (JPY) First to Go! Chinese real-estate has collapsed China refuses to update new unemployment metrics (like they've ever told the truth) China BOC keeps printing to backstop this (parabolic m3/m2) China forcing peoples money trapped in this death spiral Japan Real estate is also dead Japan stocks / Gasoline is going parabolic due to the start of hyperinflation not a booming economy Japan's BOJ also can't stop printing! what could go wrong? I've made post about this months ago with warning signs about Japan's stock market going parabolic without anything going on. This is text book Weimar Germany 1923, why the Chinese stocks going down though? simple the capital is trying everything to exit into US markets. The CCP has printed so much money and you know what people did with it? they sold it for US Dollars and used it overseas because nobody is buying the bs that China is a booming / powerful economy its completely collapsing you love to see it!. Japan? their currency is done. Both these countries have debt to GDP past the point of no return. Both these countries have PPI / CPI going parabolic past the point of no return. People have started to panic in China and it will follow in Japan followed by a complete meltdown, but the trick here is there's a chance this will not take out the US markets ironically. All of this capital will flow back into the USA. The final take away from this is the US markets see's strength not from "Real growth" but from countries where people have no option to diverse and enter the US market. "Forecasters recession this recession that" it never equals what the markets actually do.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
3
Copper - Did Social Media Tell You To Long The CCP Again?They call copper "Doctor Copper" because it's said to forecast the overall world economic conditions on account of being tightly wed to manufacturing. Well, what people are really yammering about with that over the last 20 years is whether or not the Chinese Communist Party is healthy, and the world by proxy being healthy because it tied itself to the most heinous regime in history, the one responsible for the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the accompanying organ harvesting and genocide. Unfortunately for all the blind bulls, the early 2021-2022 price action was a pretty good indication of a top, and that top is really confirmed by the fact that since October of '22, this bounce has been pretty weak, and starting this month, with all the drama surrounding the slow collapse of the Chinese economy, took out the previous two months' lows. Monthly shows you that August price action took both the July and June lows. Like, that's not the kind of "signal" you want to see to get long for a new all time high. When something is retracing to take out major highs, you want to see lows rarely violated with something of a freight train towards the old highs. Weekly bars show us something of a subtle pattern where it looks like it's just taken some lows and is consolidating and continually flirting with going back up. But in reality the market makers are, most likely, just selling more under the previous $4.00 area. And if that's really true, it means another gap down is imminent, especially after an entire quarter of ranging. If you ask me, the first area that you can look for a long that is more than a scalp on copper is under $2.8, which is a critical pivot from September. And a more likely target in the next 12 months is the $2.00 mark, which was barely swept out in the COVID drama. The reality is, my friends, the Chinese Communist Party is going to fall overnight in our lifetimes. Not five or ten years from now. But very shortly, and everything is going to change. Whether that is caused by Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP to protect himself and China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order as it uses Taiwan as a soft proxy war, or because the whole world collapses under the results of the persecution of Falun Dafa, since everyone's been going to Shanghai to worship the toads and the Devil Red to get financial benefits. This is the danger. The danger is imminent. But copper trades painfully slowly, so if you want to do this you have to have long duration, ignore the noise, and be willing to suffer some drawdown. China under the CCP is never going to recover. Things are never going to be okay ever again. Things will be okay once mankind returns to tradition. But there won't be an international stock market like this anymore that day.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by LordWrymouth