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Learn Best Change of Character CHoCH Model in Trading with SMC Most of the SMC traders get Change of Character CHoCH WRONG! In this article, I will share with you Change of Character models that have a low accuracy and better to be avoided. I will teach you the best CHoCH model for Forex Gold trading and show you how to identify it easily. Let's start with the basic theory first and discuss what Change of Character signifies. Change of Character in Bearish Trend In a downtrend, Change of Character CHoCH is an important event that signifies a violation of a bearish trend. CHoCH is confirmed when the price breaks and closes above the level of the last lower high. Above, is a text book Change of Character model in a bearish trend. For the newbie traders, such a price action provides a strong signal to buy while it fact it is NOT . One crucial thing is missing in this model to confirm a bullish reversal. According to basic trend analysis rules, we say that the market trend is bullish if the price forms a bullish impulse, retraces and sets a Higher Low HH , forms a new bullish impulse with a new Higher High HH. Only then, we can say that the market is trading in up trend. CHoCH model above confirms a bearish trend violation BUT it does not confirm a trend change. Such a model may easily signify a deeper correction. Look what happened with GBPNZD. Though the price formed a confirmed bearish CHoCH, it was a false signal and just an extended correction. That's a perfect bullish reversal model. It combines CHoCH and conditions for a bullish trend. Such a union is extremely accurate in predicting up movements. Examine a price action on USDJPY. Not only the price formed a confirmed CHoCH but also we see a start of a new bullish trend. Change of Character in Bullish Trend In an uptrend, Change of Character CHoCH is a significant event that signifies a violation of a bullish trend. CHoCH is confirmed when the price breaks and closes below the level of the last higher low. Above is a typical model of a bearish CHoCH. For many traders, that is the signal to open short. However, it is not that accurate and one important component is missing there. According to basic price action rules, the market trend is bearish if the price forms at least 2 bearish impulses with Lower Lows LL and a pullback between them with a Lower High LH. Only when these 3 conditions are met, a bearish trend is confirmed . Perfect bearish Change of Character model should include both CHoCH and a bearish trend price action. That will confirm a violation of a bullish trend and start of a new bearish trend. EURCAD has a very strong potential to continue falling: not only we see a valid bearish Change of Character but also a start of a new bearish trend based on a price action. Next time when you identify CHoCH on forex market, make sure that you check the preceding price action. It will help you to more accurate assess reversal probabilities and make a wiser trading decision. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
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What Is a Change of Character (CHoCH) and How Can You Trade It?What Is a Change of Character (CHoCH) and How Can You Trade It? Navigating the nuances of Smart Money Concept (SMC) trading requires a keen understanding of market signals like the Change of Character (CHoCH). This concept can help traders detect and react to potential trend reversals. Today, we’ll delve into the mechanics of CHoCHs, explaining how they manifest in different market conditions and how they can be strategically leveraged for trading decisions. Understanding Breaks of Structure Understanding Breaks of Structure (BOS) is essential for traders before delving into concepts like Change of Character (CHoCH). A BOS in trading signifies a continuation within the current trend and is marked by a clear deviation from established swing points that indicate previous highs and lows. In the context of an uptrend, a BOS is identified when the price exceeds a previous high without moving below the most recent higher low. This action confirms that the upward momentum is still strong and likely to continue as buyers push the market to new heights. Similarly, in a downtrend, a BOS occurs when prices drop below a previous low without breaking the prior lower high, suggesting that sellers remain in control and the downward trend is set to persist. By recognising these points where the market extends beyond its former bounds, traders can confirm that the current trend is robust and act accordingly. This foundational concept of BOS not only helps in assessing trend strength but also sets the stage for understanding more complex patterns like CHoCH, where the focus shifts from trend continuation to potential trend reversals. CHoCH Trading Meaning In trading, a Change of Character (CHoCH) signals a potential shift in market dynamics, often indicating a reversal from the prevailing trend. This concept is particularly valuable as it helps traders discern when the momentum is shifting, offering a strategic point to consider adjusting their positions. A CHoCH occurs when there's a noticeable deviation in the market's price trend. For example, in a bullish trend characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows, a CHoCH is indicated by the price failing to set a new high and subsequently falling below a recent higher low. This suggests that buyers are losing control, and a bearish trend could be emerging. Similarly, during a bearish trend marked by lower highs and lower lows, a bullish CHoCH would occur if the price unexpectedly breaks above a recent lower high. This break indicates that sellers are losing their grip, and a bullish trend may be starting. The Significance of CHoCHs Across Timeframes The fractal nature of financial markets means that patterns and behaviours recur across various timeframes, each providing unique insights and implications for trading. Understanding CHoCHs in different timeframes is crucial for traders to effectively align their strategies with both short-term opportunities and long-term trend shifts. In intraday trading, where decisions are made on lower timeframes (like minutes or hours), a CHoCH can signal a possible short-term trend reversal. For example, if a currency pair in a downtrend on a 15-minute chart suddenly posts a higher high, this could indicate a weakening of the bearish momentum, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. Traders might use this information to close short positions or to consider a long position, capitalising on the emerging upward trend. These short-term CHoCHs allow traders to respond quickly to market changes, potentially securing returns before larger market shifts occur. Conversely, CHoCHs observed on higher timeframes, such as daily or weekly charts, are particularly significant because they can indicate a shift in the broader market trend that might last days, weeks, or even months. Such changes can then be used by both long and short-term traders to adjust their positioning and directional bias. How to Identify a CHoCH The initial step to identify a CHoCH in trading involves clearly defining the existing trend on a specific timeframe. This is done by marking the significant swing highs and lows that delineate the trend's progress. These points should represent somewhat meaningful retracements in the price, providing clear markers of trend continuity or potential reversal points. According to the Smart Money Concept (SMC) theory, the integrity of an uptrend is maintained as long as the price does not trade through the most recent significant higher low. Conversely, a downtrend is considered intact if the price does not surpass the most recent significant lower high. Therefore, traders focus their attention on these critical points. To identify a CHoCH, traders watch for a break in these crucial high or low points. For instance, in an uptrend, a bearish CHoCH is indicated when the price achieves a higher high but then reverses to descend below the previous significant higher low. Similarly, in a downtrend, a bullish CHoCH occurs when the price drops to a lower low before reversing to break above the previous significant lower high, setting a new high. Both types of breaks signal a potential reversal in the trend direction. How to Trade a CHoCH When trading a CHoCH, it’s essential to recognise that it should be integrated with other aspects of the SMC framework to get the best results. This includes the use of order blocks and imbalances, which are key components in identifying potential reversals. Order Blocks and Imbalances An order block is essentially a substantial consolidation area where significant buying or selling has occurred, and prices often revisit these zones before reversing. These blocks can be seen as levels where institutional orders were previously concentrated. An imbalance, also known as a fair value gap, occurs when the price moves sharply up or down, leaving a zone that has not been traded extensively. Price often returns to these gaps to 'fill' them, establishing equilibrium before a potential reversal happens. In practice, traders can look for a sequence where the price first approaches an order block and begins to fill any existing imbalances. This setup increases confidence in a potential reversal. As the price meets these criteria and a CHoCH occurs, this indicates that the influence of the order block is likely to initiate a price reversal. Practical Example on GBP/USD Consider the 4-hour chart of the GBP/USD pair above. We see the pair encounter an order block on the left, one that’s visible on the daily chart. As the price interacts with this block, it begins to retrace, attempting to fill the imbalance but moves away. Eventually, the price completes the fill of the imbalance and meets the previously established order block. Switching to a 1-hour timeframe, this scenario unfolds similarly. After reaching the order block on the 4-hour chart, another CHoCH occurs, signalling the start of a new uptrend. This lower timeframe CHoCH, following the meeting of the order block, corroborates the potential for a reversal initiated by the higher timeframe dynamics. This example illustrates how CHoCHs can be effectively utilised across different timeframes, tying back to the fractal nature of markets discussed earlier. By recognising these patterns and understanding their interaction with order blocks and imbalances, traders can strategically position themselves to capitalise on potential market reversals, aligning their trades with deeper market forces at play. CHoCH vs Market Structure Shift A Market Structure Shift (MSS) is a specific type of Change of Character that includes additional signals suggesting a potential trend reversal. Unlike a straightforward CHoCH that typically indicates a trend is shifting but may also be a false break, an MSS can be seen as a higher confluence CHoCH. An MSS occurs after the market first makes a key movement contrary to the established trend—forming a lower high in an uptrend or a higher low in a downtrend—without plotting a higher high or lower low. Following these preliminary signals, an MSS is confirmed when there is a decisive break through a significant swing point accompanied by a strong displacement (i.e. impulse) move, creating a CHoCH in the process. This sequence not only reflects that the prevailing trend has paused but also that a new trend in the opposite direction is establishing itself. Due to these additional confirmations, an MSS can offer added confirmation for traders, indicating a stronger likelihood that a new, sustainable trend has begun. This makes the MSS particularly valuable for traders looking for more substantiated signals in their trading strategy. The Bottom Line The concept of a CHoCH is instrumental in navigating the complexities of SMC trading. By identifying these crucial market signals, traders may align their strategies to capitalise on market movements efficiently. FAQs What Is CHoCH in Trading? In trading, CHoCH is a technical observation that signifies a change in the trend's character, where the price movement breaks from its established pattern of highs and lows, suggesting a potential reversal or substantial shift in the market's direction. What Is CHoCH in SMC Trading? In Smart Money Concept (SMC) trading, a Change of Character (CHoCH) refers to a clear shift in market behaviour that indicates a potential reversal of the prevailing trend. This concept is used by traders to detect early signs of a momentum shift that might lead to significant changes in price direction, enabling strategic adjustments to their trading positions. What Is a CHoCH in the Market Structure? A CHoCH in market structure is identified when there is an observable deviation from established price patterns — specifically when new highs or lows contradict the current trend. It signifies that the previous market sentiment is weakening, and a new opposite trend may be starting, prompting traders to reassess their strategies. How Do You Identify a CHoCH? Identifying a CHoCH involves monitoring significant swing highs and lows for breaks that are contrary to the existing trend. For instance, in an uptrend, a CHoCH would be indicated by a failure to reach a new high followed by a drop below the recent higher low, suggesting a shift to a bearish outlook. What Is ChoCH vs BOS in Trading? While both CHoCH and Break of Structure (BOS) are critical in assessing market dynamics, they serve different purposes. CHoCH indicates a potential trend reversal by highlighting a significant change in the price pattern. In contrast, a BOS indicates a continuation of the current trend by showing the price surpassing previous significant highs or lows, reinforcing the ongoing direction. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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