Day Trade Market Condition sep 20, 2023 FOMCDay Trade Market Condition sep 20, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
Note FOMC @2pm EST
with FOMC possible the price edge to the high/low value area has been developing
On Monday idea with layout the week charts
Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Pullback Before The FED 🛢️
On a today's live stream, we discussed WTI Oil.
The price is currently taking off from a solid horizontal support.
As a confirmation, the market formed an inverted h&s pattern.
Its neckline has just been broken.
I expect a pullback at least to 90.6 level now.
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WTI OIL Channel Up rejection at the top. More selling ahead?WTI Oil (USOIL) almost hit our $93 target on our last idea two weeks ago (see chart below) and yesterday reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 3-month Channel Up:
The first reaction is so far a rejection that has already taken the price to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the first contact with it in 3 weeks but it's not a confirmed sell yet as during the previous Higher Highs run it got breached several times and still rebounded. The confirmation came when it broke below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line).
As a result, we are only willing to take a confirmed break-out sell below the 4H MA100 and target $85.00 which is the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up (-8.68% from the top).
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CRUDE going to take a short pullbackwhile going through the price action it can be a pullback to 3rd point.
the pink box which is having more green candles can act as support where buyers actullly entered with huge volumes.
trade with caution as fall can be faster after a while when bulls loose momentum.
WTI 's rally could just be getting startedThe more we look at market positioning on WTI, the more we suspect that oil may be dominating headlines as we head into 2024.
In recent weeks we can see that large speculators and asset managers have been increasing long exposure and reducing shorts, which is the ideal scenario for a bullish trend. Yet net-long exposure for both sets of traders remains low by historical standards, and therefore shows no immediate threat of the move higher being extended. If anything, it could look underbought considering OPEC's desire to support prices.
And when you consider oil is rising despite the stronger US dollar, you get to appreciate how strong the rally could get if the dollar's rally were to falter. Either way, with a rising US dollar and oil prices, 2024 could get messy and perhaps risk assets will get their reckoning once more.