The latest gold trend analysis strategy on June 12:
Analysis of key factors
Influence of CPI data
The core CPI in the United States in May only increased by 0.1%, which was lower than expected, indicating that inflation slowed down, and strengthened the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut (it is now expected to cut interest rates by 77 basis points in the next year). After the data was released, gold rose to $3,360/ounce in the short term, and the US dollar index plunged, reflecting the rise in risk aversion.
However, we need to be vigilant about the subsequent market's revision of inflation expectations, especially if the Fed releases hawkish signals at the June interest rate meeting.
Key technical points
Resistance: 3360-3363 (intraday high), 3380-3382 (previous high pressure).
Support: 3300-3310 (short-term psychological barrier), 3293 (recent low).
Daily signal: The 5-day moving average crosses the 10-day moving average, but the gold price temporarily stands on the 5-day moving average, forming a price divergence, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of a high and fall.
Market sentiment
Geopolitics (trade friction, central bank gold purchases) still supports the long-term bullish logic of gold, but the short-term technical side shows that the bullish momentum is insufficient, and there is strong resistance above 3350.
Operation strategy suggestions
Short-term trading
Sell short order strategy: If the gold price rebounds to the 3365-3370 range and is blocked (especially if there is a long upper shadow or the 1-hour chart closes negative), you can short with a light position, with a target of 3330-3310 and a stop loss of 3385.
Buy long order strategy: If it pulls back to 3300-3310 and stabilizes (such as closing a cross star or a positive line rebound), you can short-term long, with a target of 3330-3350 and a stop loss of 3290.
Trend tracking
Breakthrough direction confirmation: If it effectively breaks through 3382, it may open up space to rise to 3400; if it falls below 3293, it will go down to the support of 3270-3250.
Be cautious in following orders: Currently in the range of shocks (3293-3360), avoid blindly following before breaking through the previous high/low.
Risk Warning
Event Risk: Pay attention to the results of the US Treasury auction. Weak demand may further boost gold safe-haven buying.
Technical Correction: If the daily MACD forms a bottom divergence, it may trigger a larger rebound, which needs to be judged in conjunction with the K-line pattern.
Summary: The main focus during the day is high-altitude, and short orders are entered after the key resistance level of 3365-3370 is under pressure. If it quickly breaks below 3330, positions can be increased; long orders are limited to light positions at the support level. Strictly stop loss and wait for trend-following opportunities after the range breaks.
